STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 7479 after yesterday's opening bell. The choppy sideways slop continues this year chewing up bulls and bears alike.

Utilities were the bell of the ball yesterday. The session started out happy with UTIL well above the 1158.11 line in the sand for this week, but that was short-lived. Utes folded like your cheap suit dropping below 1158 and then the battle continued all day long with UTIL ending in the bear camp at 1157. Obviously, there will be more drama today.

Bulls need stronger utilities to maintain buoyancy in the stock market. Chips also need to rally but they are taking the pipe again in the premarket. The KOSPI crashes overnight due to SK Hynix and Samsung, their two top semi's that make up the majority of the index, puking their guts out.

The bears need weaker copper, commodities and retail stocks, and higher volatility, to take back control of the stock market. Copper futures need to drop about -2.2% to help the bears. Copper is soggy this morning down -0.8% so the bears have more wood to chop.

XRT is above 89 and needs to drop to 87 to help the bears. The bear's hopes are placed into volatility. VIX 19.18 is the doorway to negativity for the stock market and in the wee hours this morning it crossed above but if you blinked, you missed it, because it quickly retreated once the bulls saw that the submerged VIX beachball may explode up and out of the water. VIX is at 18.93 as this is typed only a quarter (25 cents) away from trouble. Flip that coin.

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? Bulls are in control now and look to maintain control unless the VIX pops above 19.18 and/or CPER drops below 37.93, and/or XRT falls below 87. If any one of the three turn bearish, consider the turn to the downside to be imminent and if the SPX loses 7383 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. The Fed meeting is tomorrow and stocks are typically buoyant 80% of the time leading into the rate decision.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program and actual trading each lose a little less than a percent. The choppy slop continues. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up about +9%, the quant program is up a percent, and the actual trading generated by the quant is down almost -4% underperforming the benchmark by 13 percentage-points. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered DIA remaining in single ETF's until 8/9/26.

Watch utilities, volatility, copper and retail stocks. Bulls need higher utes and lower volatility. Bears need higher vol and lower copper and retail stocks. Roll those dice, baby. The Roller.

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/27/26; 2:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 2:25 PM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/27/26; 12:58 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37; go long 7479 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)
7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/24/26; 11:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +38
7/23/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39
7/23/26; 2:02 PM EST = +20; signal line is +40
7/23/26; 1:17 PM EST = +36; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 1:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 12:03 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:17 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:05 AM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 10:11 AM EST = +22; signal line is +42; go short 7423 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.9%)