STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short into the weekend. The algo printed a number in the final minutes. The semiconductors gave up the ghost at the end of the day, the SOX falling under 395.50 ushering in market weakness.  The bears remain in control but this continues to be a coin flip between bulls and bears.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/21/12; 3:53 PM EST = +44; signal line is +59

9/21/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The algo prints a number out of the gate today that verfifies the bull-bear struggle ongoing; the algo number and the signal line are both at 60. The quant could go either way but for now remains on the bear side. Watch SOX 395.50 for clues.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/21/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short

9/20/12; 12:08 PM EST = +44; signal line is +60

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short.  The semiconductors created market negativity yesterday and will continue to do so if SOX remains under 395.50. UTIL creeped upwards but remains far away from 478.48 and after the close today and for all next week, the utility comparison number will move even higher to 483.05, so UTIL has a tall order to fill in the coming days if the bulls want to move above these levels to move markets higher. For today, simply pay attention to SOX 395.50, below and markets will move sideways with a downward bias, if SOX moves above 395.50, the markets will move sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX today starting at 1460, the bulls have an easy road today only needing to gain a point higher to print up over 1461 and that will create an acceleration move higher today to test the 1464-1465 in short order.  The bears need to push under 1450 to accelerate a downside move. The futures favor the bull path at this writing.  A move thru 1451-1460 is sideways action.  Markets remain unstable.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/20/12; 12:08 PM EST = +44; signal line is +60

9/20/12; 10:59 AM EST = +60; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The semiconductors recovered but then fell on their sword again. Note the algo number was within one single tick of the signal line at that 60-ish area.  The bulls and bears are fighting it out and there is no clear winner as yet, but the bears continue to drive the bus for now. Pay attention to SOX 395.50; markets remain weak if the SOX remains under this level; markets will recover higher if SOX moves above 395.50. Remain alert and cautious.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/20/12; 12:08 PM EST = +44; signal line is +60

9/20/12; 10:59 AM EST = +60; signal line is +61

9/20/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo prints a number at the open taking the model further into bear territory due to the weaker semiconductors, another important market barometer. The quant continues to watch SOX 395.50, which failed at the open, jumping into the bear camp. UTIL, the utilities, are flat. SPX failed 1458 at the open which led to a downside acceleration to a LOD at 1452.91 thus far, so the 1453 level reinforces itself as an important support, perhaps resistance, level. The caution flag remains out. The bears are driving the bus but the tug-o-war continues.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/20/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +61

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short going into Thursday. The algo motored along all day today without printing any numbers during the session.  With UTIL under 478.48 this week, the broad indexes should remain weak. UTIL 462.20 represents a hard fall for the markets.  UTIL closed at 468.59.  The semiconductors drifted lower today. Watch SOX 395.50 which will usher in broad market weakness. SOX closed at 398.53, only three points away.  For the SPX, starting at 1461, the bulls need to touch 1465, only four points higher, and it will be off to the races to the upside. The bears need to push under 1458, only three points lower, and the markets will accelerate downward.  A move thru 1459-1464 is sideways action. The bears are driving the bus but the fight contininues for control. The algo number is only two points away from the signal line.  Stay alert and cautious. Bulls want to see UTIL 478.48. Bears want to see SOX 395.50.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The pre-scheduled number results in no changes to the algo. The bears are driving the bus to begin the Wednesday trade. Stay alert and cautious.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +62

9/17/12; 2:11 PM EST = +60; signal line is +62; go short 1460; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +16.1%)(Keybot this trade = +4.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = +4.2%; Actual for 2012 = +7.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short.  The algo idled along today without any numbers printing. UTIL remains under 478.48 so the broad indexes should remain weak. Watch SOX 396; price is at 400 only four points away. Losing 396 will increase the selling in the broad market.  The bulls need to keep SOX above 396 and move the utilities sector higher. For the SPX, starting at 1459, the bears need to lose the 1456 level, if so, a strong downside acceleration will occur.  The bulls need to move above 1461.50, if so, a strong upside acceleration will occur.  A move thru 1457-1460 is sideways action and a very tight range, so price may commit tomorrow, up or down.  Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning so the pre-market action can be assessed at that time. Exercise caution.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/17/12; 2:11 PM EST = +60; signal line is +62; go short 1460; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +16.1%)(Keybot this trade = +4.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = +4.2%; Actual for 2012 = +7.7%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
9/17/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:11 PM EST at SPX 1460; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 16.1%; Keybot is up 14.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.7%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:13 PM EST at SPX 1402; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.5%; Keybot is up 10.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.5%.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:34 AM EST at SPX 1399; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.2%; Keybot is up 10.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.8%.
8/3/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1377; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.5%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.5%.
8/2/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:42 AM EST at SPX 1360; for th eyear thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.1%; Keybot algo is up 10.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
7/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1349; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.4%.
7/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1348; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/13/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:38 AM EST at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1354; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.6%; Keybot algo is up 8.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.9%.
6/29/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:59 AM EST at SPX 1351; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.4%; Keybot algo is up 8.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.4%.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The bears are in control now. The algo finished the day without printing any further numbers. Do the bears push markets far lower tomorrow, or, whipsaw, folding like a cheap suit? The bears will maintain downward pressure on the broad indexes as long as UTIL stays under 478.48. Keybot is also tracking UTIL 462.21 (the 50-week MA). The broad indexes will be tumbling rapidly lower if UTIL 462.21 fails. The quant is also tracking semiconductors closely again, the level of interest is SOX 396.  SOX is now at 402.48, about six and one-half points above, in the bull camp, influencing markets positively. If SOX 396 fails, the markets will sell off strongly.  VIX 17.85 is also of interest to the algo but less so than UTIL and SOX. If VIX moves above 17.85, the markets will take another leg lower. Bulls need to keep the VIX below 17.85.

For the SPX on Tuesday, starting at 1461, if the bears can push under 1457.50, the bears will accelerate the downward party. The bulls need to touch the 1466 handle to initiate an upside acceleration.  A move thru 1459-1464 is sideways action. Exercise caution. If the bulls plan on reversing Keybot's bearish move today, they will likely do it at the open with a large up. Barring that, as time moves along, the bear direction will become more palatable to traders. Stay cautious.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/17/12; 2:11 PM EST = +60; signal line is +62; go short 1460; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +16.1%)(Keybot this trade = +4.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = +4.2%; Actual for 2012 = +7.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at 2:11 PM EST at SPX 1460. Stay alert for a whipsaw. The bears are in charge now.  The program and actual trading each gained about 4% on the last trade. Keybot rotated from SPY to PSQ. Remain cautious.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/17/12; 2:11 PM EST = +60; signal line is +62; go short 1460; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +16.1%)(Keybot this trade = +4.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = +4.2%; Actual for 2012 = +7.7%)

9/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/6/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

9/6/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 3:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 2:25 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 1:32 PM EST = +44; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 9:56 AM EST = +76; signal line is +64

9/5/12; 9:40 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/4/12; 2:13 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63; go long 1402; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long.  All last week the algo did not print any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number but this week in the opening seconds it already prints, with the quant chomping at the bit to go short but internal programming rules are holding it back.  It appears that if the SPX drops under 1460 (now printing 1462.52), that should be enough to get the bears moving to the downside with Keybot on board. As of now, however, the bulls remain in control, hanging on by a thread. Do not trust the markets. Exercise caution. A turn may be imminent.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the new week of trading. The previous post outlined the interest with the utilities sector. Watch UTIL 478.48, SOX 393.50 and VIX 18.25. Semi's and volatility take a back seat to the importance of the utes. For the SPX for Monday, starting at a lofty 1466, the bulls need to push up thru 1474.50 and it is more smooth sailing higher, the SPX will test 1479 in quick order then set its sights on 1481 and 1485.  The market bears are beaten badly over the last couple weeks, hit with Draghi's bazooka, stomped by the German ESM vote and then finished off with Bernanke's bazooka, but, markets ebb and flow like the ocean waves on and off the beach.  The bears need to push down thru 1460 to accelerate a downside market move and stop the bleeding. The SPX would test the 1457, 1455 and 1453 support levels in short order.  A move thru 1461-1473 is sideways action for Monday.

Tomorrow is a very important day. The bazooka's have fired and now the smoke is clearing.  In a nutshell, it appears that if the SPX falls under 1460 tomorrow, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.  Therefore, watch the overnight futures market with interest to see if the bears can muster up about 6 or 7 negative points.  If the SPX stays above 1460, the markets will manage to move sideways all day.  If the SPX stays above 1460, and UTIL moves abvove 478.48, the bulls will truly be on a bee-line to 1500 plus. As long as UTIL remains under 478.48, as it is now, the markets will exhibit weakness.  At the opening bell, Keybot's algo number will likely fall under the signal line so if the internal programming rules line out properly, the move to the short side would be triggered. Keybot prints only one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning. Remain cautious, do not take the upside for granted. The bears will have their day in the sun if they can push under SPX 1460.

9/23/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long thru the weekend. The algo idled along all week without printing any numbers, only the pre-scheduled number yesterday.  As described since last weekend, the utillities sector is of great interest to the quant yesterday and into Monday.  For all of next week, use UTIL 478.48 as your guide that determines if broad markets move upwards, or if they sell off. UTIL closed at 472.13 so the market bulls need to bounce this over six points at Monday's opening bell to continue the upside rally. If UTIL remains under 478.38, the markets will sell off.  If UTIL stays under 478.48, and the SPX drops under 1460, Keybot will most likely flip to the short side. However, if the bulls can bounce UTIL above 478.48, or, if the bulls can keep the SPX above 1460 on Monday, they are fine.

The utilities can also serve as a forecasting tool on Monday since if the bulls bounce UTIL above 478.48, it shows that they mean business and the QE3 bazooka will indeed move markets far higher going forward.  Conversely, if UTIL stays under 478.48, the bull rally is over.  If conditions deteriorate, and UTIL tumbles lower falling thru 461.45 (only ten points away), the markets will likely go into free fall. The quant also continues to track semiconductors and volatility with interest but the week ahead can be set up after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls came to play again today, pushing the SPX thru 1464 which launches an upside acceleration; the SPX now printing 1473.  The bulls want to keep the party going into the weekend. The algo prints the pre-scheduled number a short time ago resulting in no changes. Tech is leading the move higher today with the SOX now over 410. Something to watch as the day plays out is the utilities, as described previously. The bulls need the UTIL 478.48 or higher print today, otherwise, markets will be in sell mode come Monday.  UTIL is now printing 474.53, four points below. The screens are green except for utilities which are red so this provides interest to the ongoing bullish action. Continue exercising caution. Do not trust all the market euphoria. Expect the unexpected.

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long and has not printed any numbers yet this week.  The Fed announces QE3 today and the markets moved higher. The bulls are cruising.  The algo is most interested in SOX 393.25 and UTIL 478.48.  The UTIL 478.48 is not applicable until the closing bell tomorrow and all next week. The bulls must close UTIL over 478.48 tomorrow or the markets will sell off on Monday. Semiconductors jumped today to 402 nine points above the danger level.  For the SPX for Friday, starting at 1460, the bulls need to touch 1464 and an upside market acceleration will occur to test 1468 in short order. The market bears are simply trying to stop the upside momo by preventing 1464 and keeping UTIL under 478. Markets remain erratic and unstable. Do not be lulled asleep by the Fed's move today. Continue exercising caution. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST =

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Fed decision tomorrow. The algo moved sideways for the third day in a row without printing any numbers.  The semiconductors teased failure yesterday and the utilities teased failure today.  Continue watching SOX 393, UTIL 464.31 and VIX 18.25.  All three are bullish, if any one turns bearish, Keybot will likely flip short.  UTIL is at 467.89 only three points away from failure that will drag the broad indexes lower. Further, the UTIL 50-week MA, which represents a trap-door in the markets, is at 461.37, only about six points lower. If 461.37 fails, it is highly likely the broad markets will drop into free fall. It is interesting that everyone is on the bull side, including Keybot, for now, expecting the Fed to deliver a huge half-trillion dollar QE program tomorrow, and, if the Fed does, the markets will catapult higher.

For the SPX starting at 1437, the bulls need to punch thru the high today at 1439.15, if so, the bulls are going to accelerate higher slicing thru the four-year intraday high at 1440.24 like a hot knife thru butter, then heading upwards to a gap fill at 1446. The bears need to drop under 1433 to accelerate a downside move that will drop thru 1429 and 1427 in short order and likely test 1424. A move thru 1434-1438 is sideways action but very unlikely tomorrow considering the big news from the Fed hits at 12:30 PM EST, then 2:15 PM in the press conference. Hang on to your hats. In a nutshell, SOX 393, UTIL 464.31, VIX 18.25, and SPX 1439.15 (for bull glory) and 1433 (for bear glory) will dictate market direction for Thursday.  A turn may be imminent.

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST =

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long. Tuesday ticked by and the algo did not print any numbers for the second day this week.  The semiconductors were teasing failure after this mornings open but recovered.  The same three areas are of greatest interest to Keybot; SOX 393, UTIL 464.31 and VIX 18.25. All three are bullish to start Wednesday, if any one of the three cross the levels shown, the algo will likely flip short. The German vote occurs in hours. That will immediately impact the euro and the equity markets move in the same direction as the euro.  For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 1434, the bulls need to touch 1438 to ignite an upside acceleration move thru 1440 and on to 1446.  The bears need to push under 1429 to accelerate a down move that would tag 1424 in quick order.  A move thru 1430-1437 is sideways action. Stay alert. A turn may be imminent. Markets are unstable and not to be trusted. 

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST =

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. The algo idled along to start the week without printing any numbers.  The quant is interested in three areas. Watch SOX 393, UTIL 464.31 and VIX 18.25. If any of these three parameters turn bearish (SOX under 393, or UTIL under 464.31 or VIX over 18.25), Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the bear side. For the SPX starting at 1429, the market bears only need a smidge of red in the futures overnight and the SPX will accelerate lower at the opening bell, falling thru 1427 and moving towards 1424, 1422 and 1419.  The bulls must prevent negative futures with all their might and after the opening bell push the SPX upwards to touch the 1439 handle. If so, that will accelerate an upside move, taking out the important 1440.24 resistance and moving towards 1446.  A move thru 1430-1438 is sideways action. Markets are erratic and unstable and a turn may be imminent. Focus on SOX 393 which will tell you the answer for Tuesday.

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST =

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to begin the week. The bulls are running and most indications in the algo's program are firmly in the elevated bull camp, some at such lofty levels they cannot move any more higher. Sunday's pre-scheduled number results in no changes but the algo number is only thirteen points above the signal line indicating that a suprise to the downside could occur at any time. For now, however, the bulls are driving the bus.

Watch UTIL 464.31 this week, this number stays as is the whole week long until Friday at 4 PM EST, and all next week, when the quant will be watching 478.48 (fourteen points higher). Therefore, the bulls will hang on this week staying above 464.31, but, as Friday approaches, you must see the utilities climbling strongly higher to at least be near 478 by the weekly close, or the markets are in big trouble.  Of course, if UTIL falls under 464.31 at anytime this week the markets are in serious trouble. Semiconductors are also of import to the quant currently, now tracking SOX 392 and the semi's are far above this level to start the week.

For the SPX starting at 1438, the bulls only need to see a tiny smidge of green to continue an upside acceleration. The SPX will llikely punch thru the 1440 intraday high from 2008 and attempt a gap fill at 1446 next. Watch the futures overnight tonight since any positive numbers indicate that the market bears are going to receive another beating. If the bears can keep the futures red, they will attempt to push the SPX under 1431.50, if so, a downside acceleration will occur to quickly test lower support at 1427. A move thru 1432-1437 is sideways action for Monday.  Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Extreme caution is warranted. Stay on guard and do not take the upside for granted or become complacent. The broad indexes are erratic and unstable; expect the unexpected.

9/16/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/12; 10:00 AM EST =

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long thru the weekend. The algo idled along on Friday without printing any numbers during the trading session. The bulls have pegged nearly all indicators at uber bullish levels and are taking no prisoners. The quant is tracking utilities and semiconductors as two key areas of interest. Keybot prints the pre-scheduled Sunday number tomorrow so the areas and levels of interest for the new week of trading will be set up at that time.

The move to the short side on Tuesday, followed by a whipsaw move back to the long side a few hours later, is worthy of a mention.  The market tried to suck in shorts that were then bludgeoned on Draghi's announcement. That rapid of a whipsaw move for the quant has only occurred twice before in over four years for the model which verifies the treacherous nature of the markets currently. Although the bulls are in full control, do not become complacent. The weak utilities remain a negative signal for the interemediate term.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/6/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the Friday session.  The pre-scheduled print results in a tick upwards in the signal line. The higher the signal line moves the easier it is for the model to flip to the short side. For now, the bulls are driving the bus, and with the futures green, an upside, several handle move, for the SPX should be on tap.  The intraday high from 5/19/08 at 1440.24 is very important overhead resistance. Keep an eye on SOX 391 and UTIL 467.35 as well. Stay alert and extremely cautious. These markets are erratic, unstable and not to be trusted.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63

9/6/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The market bulls were in cruise mode yesterday as the ECB delivered a bazooka of easy money. The algo number, however, is only 14 points above the signal line, despite all the upside market euphoria, and can easily flip back to the bear side at any time. Nearly all indications are in the bulls favor right now, the quant continues to track UTIL 467.35 with interest. UTIL is 472.53 five points above this danger level.

For the SPX on Friday, beginning the day at 1432, the bulls only need to see a tiny smidge of green in the futures and this will create an upside acceleration at the opening bell.  The SPX will move higher to attack the important 1440 resistance level. The futures show the spoo's up four points as this is typed.  The bears are simply trying to stop the upside momo today and that begins with red futures, and then attempting to drive the utilities sector lower. A move thru 1405-1432 is sideways action today. The markets are erratic and unstable. A pre-scheduled number prints in about four hours so the market action can be updated at that time.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/6/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

9/6/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The ECB announces the bond-buying program and the markets are running higher. UTIL jumped over 467.35 and SOX exploded above 391 providing bull fuel and dashing any bearish hopes. The SPX touched 1409 at the opening bell and accelerated higher thru 1413, 1419, 1422, 1424 and now attacking 1427 resistance as this missive is typed. The bulls are driving the bus but markets remain erratic and unstable. Continue to expect the unexpected. The algo is very active this week, printing two numbers thus far to begin the trading day.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/6/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

9/6/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 3:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long. The ECB decision on stimulus measures is only about three hours away. The algo wants to move to the short side (the algo number is under the signal line) but internal programming rules were not satisfied yesterday to allow the move to the bear side to occur. UTIL 467.35 and SOX 391 failed yesterday and are now creating broad market negativity. Watch these closely as the opening bell rings. If the SPX drops under 1401, Keybot will likely flip to the short side, and a downside acceleration will occur for markets. If a large gap down occurs at the open, this may trigger a timer that will delay a move to the short side for about 90 minutes. If Draghi provides happy news, and the markets run higher, with utilities and semiconductors recovering, the quant will simply stay long. If the SPX touches 1409, an upside acceleration will occur. Lots of excitement is likely on tap for today and tomorrow. Hang on to your hat.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/5/12; 3:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 2:25 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long. SOX fails 391 again.  All systems are go for bears but Keybot needs to see 1397 before the closing bell, otherwise, the quant will likely stay long. A turn may be imminent.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/5/12; 3:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 2:25 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as today's drama continues.  The ink was barely dry on the last post before SOX recovered back above 391. UTIL came up for a successful back kiss of the 467.35 and collapsed as a result.  So SOX 391+ is contributing positively to the broad indexes now while UTIL under 467.35 is contributing negatively. Keybot continues to want to go short but internal programming rules continue to hold it back. The quant wants to see SPX 1397 to verfiy the short side as the proper direction.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/5/12; 2:25 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 1:32 PM EST = +44; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the quant is chomping at the bit to go short. The algo number dropped under the signal line as the markets fell out of bed about one hour ago.  SOX 391 and UTIL 467.35 failed. Under these conditions, it appears that if Keybot sees 1397, the algo will likely go short, but, if the SPX stays above 1397, the bulls will probably stay in the lead at the end of the day. Watch SOX 391 and UTIL 467.35 for clues as the day finishes.  Markets are extremely erratic and unstable.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/5/12; 1:32 PM EST = +44; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/5/12; 9:56 AM EST = +76; signal line is +64

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as another odd trading day begins. Semiconductors were weak in the early going, SOX falling under 391, but have since recovered. Utilities, UTIL, came down to test 467.35 and bounced. It is always remarkable to see how Keybot knows these levels to watch far ahead of time. Continue watching UTIL 467.35 today.  An internal 24-hour timer, which attempts to calm the model, expires for the quant at 2:13 PM EST today which may lead to some interesting late day trading. For now, the markets stumble sideways with the bulls driving the bus.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/5/12; 9:56 AM EST = +76; signal line is +64

9/5/12; 9:40 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/4/12; 2:13 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63; go long 1402; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.5%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Here is an update for the SPX chart showing Keybot's turns along the way.

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:13 PM EST at SPX 1402; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.5%; Keybot is up 10.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.5%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:34 AM EST at SPX 1399; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.2%; Keybot is up 10.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.8%.
8/3/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1377; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.5%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.5%. 8/2/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:42 AM EST at SPX 1360; for th eyear thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.1%; Keybot algo is up 10.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
7/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1349; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.4%.
7/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1348; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/13/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:38 AM EST at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1354; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.6%; Keybot algo is up 8.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.9%.
6/29/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:59 AM EST at SPX 1351; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.4%; Keybot algo is up 8.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.4%.
6/21/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 1:39 PM EST at SPX 1334; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.0%; Keybot algo is up 9.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.2%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long after the market round trip today. The algorithm flipped to the short side at SPX 1399 and then whipsawed back to the long side at SPX 1402.  The sideways channel thru 1399-1413 continues.  By now, you know what to watch; VIX 18.40, UTIL 467.35, SOX 391 and JJC 43.70. Those four characters are of greatest interest to the quant. All four are bullish. If they stay bullish the markets move sideways to sideways up. If any of the four violate the level shown (remember VIX moves inversely), the broad indexes will sell off. If two of the four are negative substantial selling will appear with the SPX likely rupturing the 1397 level.

For the SPX on Wednesday, starting at 1405, the bulls need to push up over 1409 to launch an upside move to tag 1413 very quickly, then on to 1419.  The bears need to push below 1397 and a downside acceleration will occur to 1391 in short order. A move thru 1398-1408 is sideways action. Stay alert, watch the four parameters listed above, Keybot may easily flip back to the short side tomorrow.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/4/12; 2:13 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63; go long 1402; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Whipsaw occurs today. Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side. Volatility is lower, the SOX jumps well above 391 and UTIL remains above 467.35. The bears had no gas to the downside so the bulls took control once again.  The algo reversed on an internal programming rule due to three sectors reversing hard.  This behavior has only occurred twice before for the algorithm in its five year existence.  It simply verifies the knock-down drag-out sideways bull-bear fight ongoing. Perhaps Draghi will decide the winner on Thursday morning.

Keep watching VIX 18.40, UTIL 467.35, SOX 391 and JJC 43.70.  All are bullish so after all of today's excitement, markets are back to where they started the day. Keybot took a slight loss and flipped from SH back to SPY. Who knows what happens next. Perhaps the quant flips back again today or tomorrow. Markets are highly erratic and unstable currently. Extreme caution and vigilence is required.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/4/12; 2:13 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63; go long 1402; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.5%)

9/4/12; 2:08 AM EST = +62; signal line is +63

9/4/12; 10:38 AM EST = +46; signal line is +63

9/4/12; 10:34 AM EST = +30; signal line is +63; go short 1399; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.2%)(Keybot this trade = +1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.8%)(Actual this trade = +1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bearish. The SPX stumbles sideways thru 1399. UTIL recovered back above 467.35, keep an eye on it as well as SOX 391 and VIX 18.35. The algo is very active today. The bears are driving the bus, we shall see if they can make their way along, or not.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/4/12; 10:38 AM EST = +46; signal line is +63

9/4/12; 10:34 AM EST = +30; signal line is +63; go short 1399; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.2%)(Keybot this trade = +1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.8%)(Actual this trade = +1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at 10:34 AM at 1399. As always, stay on guard for a whipsaw. Continue watching the parameters listed in the prior messages. The market bears are in control now. The last trade results in a 1.6% gain for the algorithm program itself, and a 1.3% gain in the actual trading that occurred via SPY. Keybot exited SPY and entered SH.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/4/12; 10:34 AM EST = +30; signal line is +63; go short 1399; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.2%)(Keybot this trade = +1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.8%)(Actual this trade = +1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.8%)

9/4/12; 10:26 AM EST = +30; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/4/12; 10:05 AM EST = +46; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/4/12; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +61

8/31/12; 1:51 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

8/31/12; 12:20 PM EST = +60; signal line is +57

8/31/12; 11:32 AM EST = +76; signal line is +56

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +54

8/31/12; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +54

8/31/12; 9:30 AM EST = +76; signal line is +54

8/30/12; 10:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52

8/30/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52

8/29/12; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +51

8/28/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +51

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +50

8/24/12; 3:42 PM EST = +76; signal line is +49

8/23/12; 10:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 3:44 PM EST = +76; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 3:04 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 9:30 AM EST = +76; signal line is +47

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +47

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +44

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but only hanging on by a thread. The algorithm is signaling a move to the downside now but internal programming rules continue to hold Keybot back. VIX moves higher. UTIL failed the 467.35 level.  SOX is wrestling on top of 391 right now. If SPX loses 1399, the quant will likely flip short. This is high drama, Keybot may flip short at any time.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/4/12; 10:05 AM EST = +46; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay long

9/4/12; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but obviously on the ragged edge now. The algo is teetering on the verge of going short, but not yet.  Volatility jumped higher today, watch VIX 18.35, price is now above 18.35 contributing to market negativity. The quant is also tracking SOX 391 which would likely seal the deal for bears.  JJC 43.70 and UTIL 467.35 remain important as well.  The week is off to a wild start.  A market turn may be imminent.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/4/12; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into a new week of trading beginning on Tuesday morning. U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. The signal line continues to move higher which positions the model for a potential shift to the bear side. Keybot has been on the bull side for the last month. The quant is fixated on several key items. Watch copper, JJC 43.70, now four pennies above at 43.74 which causes broad market buoyancy. The Monday trading shows copper moving higher on continued hopes of global stimulus measures coming.

Watch utilities, UTIL 467.35, now 468.21 causing market buoyancy. The algo is also tracking semiconductors with interest. Watch SOX 391, now at 396. Also watch VIX 18.35, now at 17.47 effecting markets positively (volatilty moves inversely to the equity markets). Very simply, since JJC and UTIL are the key focal points to start the week, if JJC and UTIL stay above the levels listed, the bulls are happy campers and the broad markets continue floating higher. If JJC or UTIL, or any parameter, violates the levels listed, the broad market selling will be noticeable, if any two violate their levels, with JJC and UTIL currently the most likely candidates, the algo may flip to the short side. Depending on how the week progresses, only one parameter violating the levels shown may cause Keybot to move to the short side.

For the SPX for Tuesday, starting at 1407, the bulls need to move up thru 1413 to accelerate the upside to 1419 while the bears need to push under 1399 to accelerate the downside towards 1391. The SPX has moved thru the sideways 1399-1413 channel range for the last eight days so the move from this range is very important. A move thru 1400-1412 is sideways action for Tuesday. The quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. An active week is anticipated for the algo. Stay alert for a potential market turn this week. For now, the bulls continue driving the bus.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +61

8/31/12; 1:51 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  Lots of drama yesterday but when it was all said and done, the bulls continue to rule the roost. Keybot printed three additional numbers as the Friday session played out. Note how the algorithm is ratcheting up the signal line incrementally. The higher the signal line moves, the closer the quant comes to flipping short. Copper remains the number one key focus of the quant; JJC 43.70 will be key come Tuesday morning.

U.S. Markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. The week ahead will be set up after the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints tomorrow. Keybot has remained on the long side for one month. Do not be lulled to sleep in these markets, stay vigilent and cautious. Expect the unexpected.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 1:51 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

8/31/12; 12:20 PM EST = +60; signal line is +57

8/31/12; 11:32 AM EST = +76; signal line is +56

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo printed two numbers plus the pre-scheduled number thus far today. JJC is well under 43.70 which is contributing to market negativity. The market bears need to see the SOX lose 390, now printing 393, or, the VIX print 18.35, now printing 17.82 to send Keybot to the short side.  UTIL 464 and NYA 7836 remain important.  A turn may be imminent, bulls are hanging on by a thread, but hanging on nonetheless.  Remember to watch for UTIL 467.35 at 4 PM today. The algo number is only six points away from the signal line verifying the ongoing bull-bear struggle.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +54

8/31/12; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +54

8/31/12; 9:30 AM EST = +76; signal line is +54

8/30/12; 10:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a day of teetering towards the bear side.  Copper was weak as the day moved along which helped maintain market weakness.  The bears, however, were unable to move the SOX under 390 to kick in serious broad market selling. Keybot will likely flip short if JJC stays under 43.70 and the SOX falls under 390.  SOX fell to a LOD of 390.33, only 33 pennies away from flushing the markets.  Chairman Bernanke speaks tomorrow at 10 AM EST when the market story will be written.

The areas of interest to the quant right now are JJC 43.70, SOX 390, VIX 18.35, UTIL 464 and NYA 7835.  UTIL closed at 468.45 which will provide excitement tomorrow since price is only four points away from 464. In addition, the UTIL 50-week MA is 460, a trap door for the broad indexes; markets will drop into free fall if UTIL 460 is lost and it is only eight points away. Also of interest for the utilities sector is the UTIL 467.35 number for every day next week. Thus, the close tomorrow at 4 PM is very important since the 467.35 will be the comparison number as soon as the bell rings on Tuesday (markets are closed on Monday). If UTIL closes tomorrow under 467.35 at 4 PM consider that to be an all systems go signal for bears for Tuesday morning.

For the SPX, starting at 1399 support, the bulls need to touch 1410 and an upside acceleration to 1419 will occur in short order.  The bears need to push only two measley points lower, to drop under 1397, and a downside acceleration will occur to 1391 in quick order.  A move thru 1398-1409 is sideways action. Tomorrow will be a circus. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time. In a nutshell, if JJC stays under 43.70, and one of the other four parameters listed above turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short. A turn may be imminent tomorrow. If you see JJC move above 43.70, the market bulls will float the markets higher into the weekend.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/30/12; 10:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52

8/30/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52