Keybot the Quant Algorithm Final 2023 Results; Another Banner Year

Keybot the Quant logs another profitable year this year. Was there ever any doubt? Actually, yes, considering the robot was underwater in September. It was a whipsaw choppy sloppy market all year long chewing up bulls and bears alike. The SPX maintained an upward bias during the year amidst the chop. The big money was made on the short side during September and October and then on the long side during November and December.

Keybot the Quant algorithm is rezeroed for the new year. The robot remains in SH the 1x short ETF that moves opposite to the S&P 500 on an equal or near-equal percentage basis.

The benchmark SPX gains a big +24% in 2023 with America's wealthy cheering the age of crony capitalism and endless money-printing. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program that dictates the flips from long to short and visa versa, gains +13% in 2023. The actual trading generated by the quant, using 1x and 2x ETF's, jumps +23% in 2023 keeping pace with the benchmark S&P 500 index.

Many investment houses pulled the plug on their algorithms half-way through the year since their programs cannot navigate the choppy whipsaw slop. The superiority of Keybot the Quant is obvious this year navigating the treacherous choppy market waters while other robots fail. 2023 was similar to 2017 another year that exhibited choppy whipsaw slop chewing up bulls and bears alike. Trending markets is where you make the dough and this was on full display from September through year-end.

Utilities, commodities and copper are controlling stock market direction as Baby New Year 2024 begins to crawl. UTIL 871.27 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the week ahead with price starting at 882. This means utes will create stock market bullishness out of the gate tomorrow morning. If UTIL floats higher especially above 9 hundo, the stock market rally has legs. If UTIL begins the day soggy and then slips below 871, the stock market is in trouble and will likely begin sliding down the rabbit hole.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning before the market opens in the States. Happy New Year! Auld Lang Syne.

1/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
1/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
1/1/24; Begin 2024 Data = +18; signal line is +24; go short 4770; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +0.0%)
 
Keybot the Quant Begins 2024 on the Short Side from SPX 4770
 
All Data 0%. Begin 2024
 
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START 2024 PROGRAM
 
Begin Printing
 
Mark and Set
 
Date Stamp 1/1/24; 4:25 AM EST
 
START 2024 PROGRAM
 
Copyright Enforced. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. Keybot the Quant. The Keystone Speculator. K E Stone. All Rights Reserved.
 
End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End
 
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END OF 2023 RESULTS:
 
The SPX (S&P 500) Benchmark Index Gains a Huge 24.2% in 2023
(SPX Started 2023 at 3840 and Ended at 4770 Catapulting 930 Points Higher Reversing the Huge 2022 Collapse of 926 Points)
 
Keybot the Quant Algorithm (Computer Program Only) During 2023: +12.9%
 
KEYBOT THE QUANT ACTUAL TRADING RETURN FOR 2023 INCLUDING ALL COMMISSIONS, COSTS AND FEES: +22.5%
 
Keybot the Quant has never printed a losing year
 
Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish (long) position and a bearish (short) position seeking the smoothest path through the trading year using the S&P 500 (SPX; the US stock market) as the benchmark comparison index
 
Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2023: 40
 

12/31/2022	3840	Go Short	8:37 AM	SH	16.03
1/4/2023	3841	Cover Short	9:47 AM	SH	16.02
1/4/2023	3841	Go Long	9:47 AM	SPY	382.83
1/30/2023	4023	Sell Long	2:52 PM	SPY	401.04
1/30/2023	4023	Go Short	2:52 PM	SDS	41.91
1/31/2023	4059	Cover Short	2:52 PM	SDS	41.16
1/31/2023	4059	Go Long	2:52 PM	SPY	404.65
2/21/2023	4024	Sell Long	10:15 AM	SPY	401.81
2/21/2023	4024	Go Short	10:15 AM	SH	15.35
2/23/2023	4018	Cover Short	9:36 AM	SH	15.39
2/23/2023	4018	Go Long	9:36 AM	SPY	403.49
2/23/2023	3977	Sell Long	11:43 AM	SPY	397.21
2/23/2023	3977	Go Short	11:43 AM	SH	15.55
2/27/2023	4017	Cover Short	10:09 AM	SH	15.40
2/27/2023	4017	Go Long	10:09 AM	DIA	331.81
3/1/2023	3955	Sell Long	10:09 AM	DIA	326.61
3/1/2023	3955	Go Short	10:09 AM	PSQ	13.47
3/2/2023	3978	Cover Short	3:17 PM	PSQ	13.41
3/2/2023	3978	Go Long	3:17 PM	QQQ	293.33
3/7/2023	4024	Sell Long	10:03 AM	QQQ	298.37
3/7/2023	4024	Go Short	10:03 AM	DOG	33.40
3/21/2023	4004	Cover Short	3:40 PM	DOG	34.19
3/21/2023	4004	Go Long	3:40 PM	QQQ	310.37
3/23/2023	3936	Sell Long	2:40 PM	QQQ	308.16
3/23/2023	3936	Go Short	2:40 PM	SDS	43.45
3/27/2023	3984	Cover Short	1:28 PM	SDS	42.46
3/27/2023	3984	Go Long	1:28 PM	SSO	47.24
4/20/2023	4118	Sell Long	3:16 PM	SSO	50.30
4/20/2023	4118	Go Short	3:16 PM	SDS	39.95
5/1/2023	4172	Cover Short	10:00 AM	SDS	39.02
5/1/2023	4172	Go Long	10:00 AM	SSO	51.47
5/2/2023	4152	Sell Long	9:39 AM	SSO	51.04
5/2/2023	4152	Go Short	9:39 AM	SH	14.91
5/5/2023	4104	Cover Short	9:36 AM	SH	15.09
5/5/2023	4104	Go Long	9:36 AM	SPY	409.28
5/12/2023	4104	Sell Long	12:47 PM	SPY	409.68
5/12/2023	4104	Go Short	12:47 PM	SH	15.10
5/17/2023	4137	Cover Short	12:32 PM	SH	14.98
5/17/2023	4137	Go Long	12:32 PM	SPY	413.00
5/24/2023	4128	Sell Long	9:30 AM	SPY	412.18
5/24/2023	4128	Go Short	9:30 AM	DOG	33.85
5/26/2023	4197	Cover Short	10:37 AM	DOG	33.73
5/26/2023	4197	Go Long	10:37 AM	DIA	331.13
6/26/2023	4336	Sell Long	12:11 PM	DIA	337.10
6/26/2023	4336	Go Short	12:11 PM	SDS	36.03
7/7/2023	4425	Cover Short	12:30 PM	SDS	34.70
7/7/2023	4425	Go Long	12:30 PM	SSO	57.51
8/2/2023	4518	Sell Long	10:58 AM	SSO	59.73
8/2/2023	4518	Go Short	10:58 AM	SDS	33.48
8/4/2023	4524	Cover Short	9:33 AM	SDS	59.80
8/4/2023	4524	Go Long	9:33 AM	SSO	59.80
8/8/2023	4479	Sell Long	9:45 AM	SSO	58.69
8/8/2023	4479	Go Short	9:45 AM	SDS	34.10
8/10/2023	4506	Cover Short	9:36 AM	SDS	33.78
8/10/2023	4506	Go Long	9:36 AM	DDM	71.21
8/10/2023	4461	Sell Long	1:57 PM	DDM	70.00
8/10/2023	4461	Go Short	1:57 PM	SH	13.94
8/14/2023	4481	Cover Short	10:51 AM	SH	13.90
8/14/2023	4481	Go Long	10:51 AM	SPY	447.11
8/15/2023	4450	Sell Long	10:10 AM	SPY	444.19
8/15/2023	4450	Go Short	10:10 AM	PSQ	10.71
8/23/2023	4431	Cover Short	12:43 PM	PSQ	10.68
8/23/2023	4431	Go Long	12:43 PM	QQQ	368.82
8/24/2023	4428	Sell Long	10:31 AM	QQQ	366.61
8/24/2023	4428	Go Short	10:31 AM	RWM	23.32
8/29/2023	4446	Cover Short	9:47 AM	RWM	23.24
8/29/2023	4446	Go Long	9:47 AM	IWM	185.77
9/6/2023	4464	Sell Long	10:50 AM	IWM	186.30
9/6/2023	4464	Go Short	10:50 AM	DOG	32.61
9/14/2023	4499	Cover Short	11:10 AM	DOG	32.35
9/14/2023	4499	Go Long	11:10 AM	IWM	185.69
9/15/2023	4466	Sell Long	10:57 AM	IWM	183.72
9/15/2023	4466	Go Short	10:57 AM	SH	14.02
11/1/2023	4209	Cover Short	9:48 AM	SH	14.84
11/1/2023	4209	Go Long	9:48 AM	SSO	51.03
12/20/2023	4705	Sell Long	3:57 PM	SSO	63.37
12/20/2023	4705	Go Short	3:57 PM	SDS	30.66
12/22/2023	4769	Cover Short	9:45 AM	SDS	29.89
12/22/2023	4769	Go Long	9:45 AM	SPY	474.95
12/29/2023	4777	Sell Long	10:46 AM	SPY	475.91
12/29/2023	4777	Go Short	10:46 AM	SH	12.97
12/31/2023	4770	Cover Short	4:25 AM	SH	12.99

 
Date – SPX – Position – Time Stamp – ETF – Price
 
Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order
 
FINAL 2023 RESULTS
 
Mark and Set
 
Date Stamp 1/1/24; 4:25 AM EST
 
End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End
 
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12/31/23; Algorithm Zeroed for 2024 Data EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2023 = +18; signal line is +23; go short 4770; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 Final = +24.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 Final = +12.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2023 Final = +22.5%)
12/29/23; 10:46 AM EST = +18; signal line is +23; go short 4777; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +24.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +12.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +22.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday morning at SPX 4777. The robot was champing at the bit all week long to go short and finally commits on Friday as another successful year draws to a close.

The last trade ran for a week with marginal gains in the S&P 500 benchmark, the quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant. The SPX is up a huge +24% this year with the actual trading generated by the quant in step with a +23% gain in 2023.

Keybot the Quant will be rezeroed tomorrow morning for the new year ahead and to provide the final results of 2023. Keybot exited SPY and entered SH remaining in the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer remains active. Imagine.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2023 =
12/29/23; 10:46 AM EST = +18; signal line is +23; go short 4777; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +24.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +12.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +22.3%)
12/26/23; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
12/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +23
12/22/23; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
12/22/23; 9:45 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22; go long 4769; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +24.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +12.5%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2023 = +22.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 4769. The choppy whipsaw slop that is the hallmark of 2023 continues into year end. The quant program loses about a percent on the 7-hour trade and the actual trading loses -2.5%. For the year with only 4 trading days remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up a huge +24%. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up +13% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +22% this year. The whipsaw timer is triggered so the robot drops into single 1x ETF's for the next 30 days to lessen risk in the choppy slop. Keybot exited SDS and entered SPY.

UTIL 871.75 is a meaningless number now replaced with 892.13. UTIL is at 873 so utes would fail out of the gate on Tuesday creating negativity. The SPX likely needs to drop through 4737 on Tuesday for the quant to whipsaw back to the short side. If UTIL remains below 892 and copper weakens, stocks will begin falling apart.

Bulls need higher utilities and commodities to continue the rally. It's not Christmas without Jingle Bell Rock.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2023 =
12/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
12/22/23; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
12/22/23; 9:45 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22; go long 4769; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +24.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +12.5%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2023 = +22.1%)
12/22/23; 9:37 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
12/21/23; 11:12 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20
12/21/23; 9:48 AM EST = +34; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
12/20/23; 3:57 PM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 4705; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +22.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +13.9%)(Actual results this trade = +24.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +24.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at the end of the session at SPX 4705. The last trade ran for about 7 weeks with the algo program gaining about +12% and the actual trading gaining a humongous +24%. On the year, with only 6 trading days remaining, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up a big +23%. Wowza. The Keybot the Quant program is up +14% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +25% beating the benchmark. Comically, it looked like the robot may log its first negative year ever only 2 months ago. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

If UTIL remains below 871, stocks will continue lower. If copper drops, stocks will be toast. Bulls need UTIL above 871 and they will be able to right the ship. Utes will tell you who wins.

It's Christmastime and the band is back together for holiday fun. Now back to Darlene's song; that girl is a gift from heaven.

12/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
12/22/23; 10:00 AM EST =
12/20/23; 3:57 PM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 4705; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +22.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +13.9%)(Actual results this trade = +24.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +24.6%)
12/20/23; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +19
12/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +17
12/17/23; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +16
12/13/23; 12:59 PM EST = +32; signal line is +14
12/13/23; 3:41 PM EST = +48; signal line is +13
12/13/23; 10:51 AM EST = +32; signal line is +11
12/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10
12/12/23; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10
12/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +9
12/11/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
12/10/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +7
12/8/23; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +7
12/8/23; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +7
12/7/23; 11:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is +6
12/7/23; 11:11 AM EST = +0; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
12/7/23; 10:45 AM EST = +16; signal line is +6
12/7/23; 10:18 AM EST = +0; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
12/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +5
12/6/23; 11:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
12/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +3
11/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +16; signal line is -2
11/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +0
11/26/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
11/22/23; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is -4
11/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is -7
11/17/23; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is -10
11/14/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -14
11/13/23; 10:45 AM EST = +2; signal line is -17
11/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is -21
11/10/23; 10:00 AM EST = -14; signal line is -23
11/9/23; 11:51 AM EST = -14; signal line is -24
11/9/23; 9:45 AM EST = +2; signal line is -26
11/8/23; 10:54 AM EST = -14; signal line is -28
11/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = +2; signal line is -29
11/6/23; 2:42 PM EST = +16; signal line is -33
11/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = +0; signal line is -37
11/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -39
11/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is -43
11/3/23; 3:30 PM EST = +2; signal line is -45
11/3/23; 2:33 PM EST = +16; signal line is -48
11/3/23; 1:12 PM EST = +2; signal line is -51
11/3/23; 9:45 AM EST = +16; signal line is -54
11/3/23; 9:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is -57
11/2/23; 3:13 PM EST = +0; signal line is -60
11/2/23; 11:32 AM EST = -14; signal line is -62
11/2/23; 11:11 AM EST = -28; signal line is -64
11/2/23; 10:42 AM EST = -14; signal line is -66
11/2/23; 10:39 AM EST = -28; signal line is -68
11/2/23; 10:37 AM EST = -44; signal line is -69
11/2/23; 9:56 AM EST = -30; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:46 PM EST = -44; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:24 PM EST = -60; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:01 PM EST = -76; signal line is -70 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:46 PM EST = -90; signal line is -69 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:36 PM EST = -76; signal line is -68 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 1:38 PM EST = -90; signal line is -67 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:26 PM EST = -76; signal line is -66 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:17 PM EST = -60; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 10:27 AM EST = -46; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 9:48 AM EST = -60; signal line is -65; go long 4209; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 4209.

On the last trade, that ran for 6 weeks, the quant gains almost +6%. Ditto the actual trading generated by the robot. For the year thus far, with only 2 months remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +10% giving back a lot over the last 3 months. The quant program is up a couple percent this year so far and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is a smidgeon positive on the year. Perhaps Keybot may not finish in the red this year after all? (The robot has never had a negative year since it went on line in 2008.) Keybot exits SH and enters SSO back into the 2x ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired. 

11/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
11/3/23; 9:00 AM EST =
11/1/23; 3:46 PM EST = -44; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:24 PM EST = -60; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:01 PM EST = -76; signal line is -70 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:46 PM EST = -90; signal line is -69 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:36 PM EST = -76; signal line is -68 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 1:38 PM EST = -90; signal line is -67 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:26 PM EST = -76; signal line is -66 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:17 PM EST = -60; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 10:27 AM EST = -46; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 9:48 AM EST = -60; signal line is -65; go long 4209; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.4%)
11/1/23; 9:36 AM EST = -60; signal line is -65 but algorithm remains short
10/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -90; signal line is -65
10/31/23; 1:16 PM EST = -90; signal line is -64
10/31/23; 10:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -62
10/31/23; 9:36 AM EST = -76; signal line is -61
10/30/23; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -60 but algorithm remains short
10/30/23; 1:36 PM EST = -76; signal line is -60
10/30/23; 1:27 PM EST = -90; signal line is -59
10/30/23; 12:48 PM EST = -76; signal line is -58
10/30/23; 11:54 AM EST = -60; signal line is -56
10/30/23; 10:30 AM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/30/23; 9:36 AM EST = -60; signal line is -57
10/29/23; 7:00 PM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/25/23; 12:07 PM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = -62; signal line is -56
10/18/23; 9:36 AM EST = -62; signal line is -56
10/18/23; 9:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 3:31 PM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 2:56 PM EST = -62; signal line is -57
10/17/23; 2:46 PM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 1:58 PM EST = -62; signal line is -57
10/17/23; 11:20 AM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = -62; signal line is -57
10/16/23; 3:10 PM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 2:43 PM EST = -62; signal line is -56
10/16/23; 1:46 PM EST = -46; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 1:25 PM EST = -62; signal line is -54
10/16/23; 12:28 PM EST = -46; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 12:04 PM EST = -62; signal line is -52
10/16/23; 11:15 AM EST = -46; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 11:05 AM EST = -30; signal line is -47 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 10:15 AM EST = -46; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains short
10/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = -62; signal line is -44
10/13/23; 10:57 AM EST = -62; signal line is -42
10/13/23; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -39
10/10/23; 10:17 AM EST = -46; signal line is -36
10/9/23; 9:36 AM EST = -62; signal line is -34
10/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = -76; signal line is -31
10/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -27
10/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -76; signal line is -24
10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -49; signal line is -8
9/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -5
9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = -49; signal line is -2
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1
9/22/23; 3:14 PM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/22/23; 1:29 PM EST = -49; signal line is +6
9/22/23; 10:05 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
9/22/23; 9:58 AM EST = -49; signal line is +12
9/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +15
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18
9/21/23; 10:49 AM EST = -35; signal line is +20
9/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = -19; signal line is +22
9/21/23; 9:42 AM EST = -35; signal line is +24
9/20/23; 3:59 PM EST = -19; signal line is +27
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
9/18/23; 12:20 PM EST = -5; signal line is +29
9/18/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 11:04 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:57 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29; go short 4466; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -5.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo remains quiet the last 2 weeks. Commodities fail creating the leg lower in stocks. Friday is a big recovery rally for equities but it did not move the needle on the quant. The bears are cruising with the algo number 49 points below the signal line.

Bears need SPX below 4210 to create Armageddon but price recovers on Friday to 4309. The S&P 500 fell to 4216 last week teasing carnage, but the bulls pumped tech and semiconductor stocks to save the day.

Bulls need either SOX above 3504 and/or GTX above 3560 to stop the stock market selling and stabilize conditions. The chips/tech stocks will likely tell you a lot about the market in the days ahead. Bulls got nothing unless they can push SOX back above 3504 (this tells you that the relief rally has legs).

The US stock market remains in a crash profile going forward. Bears need SPX below 4210 which will create market carnage and a likely crash.

Bulls need SOX 3504 and/or GTX 3560 to prove that they can stage a comeback rally, a New York Comeback as Lucinda and the Boss sing.

10/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -27
10/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -76; signal line is -24
10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -49; signal line is -8

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish after a sleepy last week. There may be lots of drama going on but the underlying stock market parameters held completely steady in the bear camp with the algo number 41 points below the signal line. The quant did not print any numbers last week except for the pre-scheduled number on Friday morning.

For the level of negativity in the market as per the quant, it is surprising that stocks have not dropped further. Bulls are clinging on to commodities as their lifeline; it is a sector that has not broken down yet.

The bears will create blood and carnage on Wall Street if the SPX drops below 4177. The S&P 500 begins at 4288 only about a hundo points away. The US stock market will likely crash if the 4177 fails. This is not a joke.

If the bulls want to stop the bears, they need stronger chips and NYA index. Bulls need SOX above 3515 and/or NYA above 15629 to stop the stock market selling. Either one would do. The stock market would then need further positives to stage a legitimate rally, but it would at least stop the bleeding. If both parameters turn bullish a strong relief rally will be underway.

Bulls can stabilize the stock market and start a relief rally with SOX 3515, NYA 15629, and a VIX below 15.

Bears will likely send the US stock market into a crash if SPX 4177 fails. October is the month for crashes. The stock market is exhibiting a crash profile for the last few weeks due to the failure and weakness in the utilities. There may be lots of fun on tap to end the year. The Girls Just Want to Have Fun.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Q3 is in the bag and the first day of trading for Q4 begins tomorrow.

10/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/23; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -49; signal line is -8
9/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -5
9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = -49; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 47 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising with their feet up on the dashboard. The quant is quiet this week idling along without printing any numbers thus far. It is always interesting how the robot may print 15 numbers in one day and then several days may go by without the quant printing any numbers.

Bears need weaker commodities to push stocks lower but oil and others remain buoyant. Bears need stronger banks and NYA while pushing volatility lower. These three parameters have only become more bearish this week. Utilities have crashed which remains a very ominous harbinger of things to come.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number for this week tomorrow morning. The month and third quarter trading ends tomorrow (EOM and EOQ3, respectively).

10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/23; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = -49; signal line is -2
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the bears are cruising with the algo number 50 points below the signal line. The robot spits out 6 numbers on Friday. The drama is around the NYA 15622 bull/bear line in the sand as expected.

NYA finishes at 15570 below the critical 15622 so the bears are walking around this weekend with chins held high and chests puffed.

Make no mistake. The collapse in chips leads the broad markets lower. The problems in the housing and manufacturing sectors are old school indicators that did not bring the broad market lower. Once semiconductors failed, however, stocks fell apart. Perhaps the luster is coming off the AI rose. Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

The bulls can only stop the stock market selling if they push NYA back above 15622. In addition, the bulls likely need stronger banks and lower volatility to stop the overall negativity.

Bears will send the stock market another leg lower if they can weaken commodities. Remember, the weak utilities over the last couple months signaled trouble ahead and utes remain a bad omen for stocks going forward (crash profile).

Watch NYA 15622, XLF 34.18 and VIX 14.85. All 3 parameters are bearish. Bulls need at least one of the 3 to turn bullish to stop the stock market selling. If all 3 remain in the bear camp, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1
9/22/23; 3:14 PM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/22/23; 1:29 PM EST = -49; signal line is +6
9/22/23; 10:05 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
9/22/23; 9:58 AM EST = -49; signal line is +12
9/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +15
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears slaughtered the bulls yesterday the SPX puking 72 points. The bed-sh*tting sends the algo number 67 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising.

Two key market metrics failed yesterday and will tell you if the downside has legs. XLF drops below the 34.21 bull/bear line in the sand ending the day at 33.92. Bulls desperately need the banks to recover back above XLF 34.21.

The NYA fails below the 15622 bull/bear line in the sand down to 15602. This failure is especially ominous because it represents a cyclical bear market ahead. Write NYA 15622 on a sticky note and paste it to your forehead for the days ahead. There will likely be a battle here during the days ahead and the resolution will dictate how stocks end the year.

If NYA remains below 15622 going forward, the US stock market will crumble lower into year end. If the NYA recovers above 15622, the stock market will stabilize and the selling will stop. Also, the bloodbath scenario ahead for stocks can be taken off the table.

NYA 15622 and XLF 34.21 will tell you the stock market story today. XLF is trading at 34.00 in the pre-market. For the bears to gain further traction to the downside, they need weaker commodities.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18
9/21/23; 10:49 AM EST = -35; signal line is +20
9/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = -19; signal line is +22
9/21/23; 9:42 AM EST = -35; signal line is +24
9/20/23; 3:59 PM EST = -19; signal line is +27
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the markets idle into Fed day today. Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High this afternoon to tell global traders how to trade. The algo number is 33 points below the signal line so the bears are walking around with their chests puffed out.

Bulls need higher copper, chips and retail stocks to regain stock market control. Bulls need CPER above 23.40, RTH above 175.30 and/or SOX above 3558. Any 1 of the 3 will stop the stock market selling and place bulls on steady ground. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, stocks will be rallying higher and likely position the quant to go long. If all 3 turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting to the moon.

Copper futures are up +0.6% and CPER only needs to gain +0.3% to flip bullish so it looks like copper will jump into the bull camp after the opening bell. This activity likely places the stock market on hold until Chairman Powell walks onto the stage with his jelly-stained necktie in a few hours.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker banks. Bears need VIX above 14.80 and XLF below 34.28 to create stock market carnage. Of course, Powell's presser will move the banks. Yesterday, the VIX teased 14.80 but then pulled back down waiting on the Fed. VIX is now trading at 13.91 in real-time so the bears have to jam it a stick higher if they want to growl.

Volatility is the key. Bulls win today if they keep Uncle Vix below 14.80. If VIX pops above 14.80, there will be blood on Wall Street. Powell is getting ready for the big day at home asking his wife if she can help him find two socks that match.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
9/18/23; 12:20 PM EST = -5; signal line is +29
9/18/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 4466. Of course it does in these multi-month chop suey markets chewing up bulls and bears alike. The model round-trips from SPX 4464 to 4499 then back to 4466 verifying the never-ending choppy slop.

UTIL pops above 9 hundo for the bulls but utes then fall on their sword. The chips were taken out back behind the garage and beaten with a baseball bat. The SOX collapses into the bear camp at 3476 below the 3575 line in the sand. Copper faltered but CPER ends the day at 23.44 in the bull camp above the 23.39 line in the sand (by pennies).

VIX is at 13.79 remaining below the 14.97 line in the sand so the bears got nothing unless VIX pops above 15; this will tell you that the rout is on and the downside in stocks has legs. If the VIX remains below 15, stocks will recover and not drop to any great significance.

UTIL is at 892 and needs 915 next week to provide bull fuel for the stock market. Retail stocks and banks remain in the bull camp so any weakness in these sectors, especially Scamazon, will portend weakness ahead for the stock market.

The bears have the stock market football stumbling down field like a drunk with the algo number only 2 measly points below the signal line. The stock market remains a coin toss. 

On the last trade, that results in a whipsaw, the algo program and actual trading each lose about one percent; the nickel and diming continues. For the year, the S&P 500, that is the United States stock market, is up +16%. The quant program is down about -4% and the actual trading is down about -6% on the year thus far. Some additional oil is injected into Keybot's joints to help the robot out. After 14 great successful years, Keybot is looking like the Tin Man. There is still lots of time remaining in the year and there is likely an interesting finish ahead. Keybot exits IWM and enters SH and will remain in the 1x ETF's until the middle of October due to the price volatility (wild swings in price).

For the week ahead, the Fed is on tap so stocks may idle until Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell international stock, bond and currency traders how to trade.

Chips, retail stocks (AMZN), banks and copper are controlling stock market direction currently. Nothing Else Matters.

Bears will prove they can take the stock market lower if retail stocks, banks and copper weaken. Bulls prove they are going to be in control going forward if chips and utilities rally. For now, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line due to these coin-flip markets.

9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 11:04 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:57 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29; go short 4466; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -5.5%)
9/15/23; 10:22 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 10:09 AM EST = +43; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 9:55 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 9:46 AM EST = +43; signal line is +28
9/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:38 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:20 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:21 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:14 PM EST = +27; signal line is +25
9/14/23; 11:57 AM EST = +43; signal line is +24
9/14/23; 11:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +22
9/14/23; 11:10 AM EST = +43; signal line is +21; go long 4499; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -4.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4499. What a wild ride it has been this week. The quant is spitting out numbers like crazy. Chips and copper are running the stock market show and now utilities want to reenter the game. The drama is guaranteed to continue and do not be surprised if the algo whipsaws back to the short side.

UTIL 900.04, SOX 3578.40 and CPER 23.40 are controlling stock market direction currently. Utilities have remained in the bear camp for many weeks an ominous harbinger of big trouble but the stock market holds up with government stimulus and central banker money sloshing around everywhere. UTIL begins today at the 898 palindrome only 2 points from the 900.04 line in the sand. If UTIL moves above 900, it will create further upside in the stock market.

The UTIL 900.04 is obsolete after today and for all of next week the bull/bear line in the sand is 915.24. Thus, if the bulls can create more upside juice today above 9 hundo, that bullishness will disappear come Monday because UTIL will then need to be above 915. If utes rally big today and UTIL moves above 915, it tells you that the stock market rally has some legs. Obviously, bears want UTIL to fall from the current 898 price and trend lower which will continue forecasting serious trouble ahead for US stocks.

Bears need SOX below 3578.40 and price is at 3584 only a sneeze away. In the pre-market, semi's are dropping a couple percent across the board due to Taiwan Semi cutting back on equipment deliveries and orders (business is not as robust as thought). Thus, SOX will likely fail back into the bear camp at the opening bell creating market negativity.

Bears need CPER below 23.40 with price starting at 23.53. This is a 0.6% difference and copper futures are currently down -0.3% so the bears have more work to do to beat down the red metal and create stock market negativity.

If SOX and CPER fail into the bear camp, or if SOX jogs above and below the line in the sand a couple times today on its own, and the SPX drops below 4479, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

It is a crazy market. Crazy as only Patsy could sing. Flip a coin. The chips, copper and utes will tell you the story today.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and the actual trading each lose -0.8% getting nickel and dimed to death over the last few weeks. Algorithms loathe chop suey markets and this erratic price action has been ongoing for nearly a year. It is reminiscent of the choppy whipsaw slop during 2017.

For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up an impressive +17%. The algo program is down -3% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -4%. Keybot the Quant has never had a down year since it came on line in 2008. Do you think the robot has finally met its match this year? There are 3-1/2 months remaining in 2023. Keybot exits DOG and enters IWM remaining in 1x ETF's. This timer will expire in about a week and Keybot will then go back into 2x leveraged ETF's as long as another whipsaw does not occur.

9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/23; 10:00 AM EST =
9/14/23; 2:38 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:20 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:21 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:14 PM EST = +27; signal line is +25
9/14/23; 11:57 AM EST = +43; signal line is +24
9/14/23; 11:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +22
9/14/23; 11:10 AM EST = +43; signal line is +21; go long 4499; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -4.4%)
9/14/23; 10:46 AM EST = +43; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
9/14/23; 9:49 AM EST = +27; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
9/14/23; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 2:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is +15
9/13/23; 1:34 PM EST = +27; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 11:06 AM EST = +43; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 10:31 AM EST = +27; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 9:56 AM EST = +11; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 1:53 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 1:29 PM EST = +27; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 12:43 PM EST = +11; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 12:10 PM EST = +27; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 10:33 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 9:48 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 3:24 PM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 2:41 PM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 10:01 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:52 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 10:27 AM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 9:43 AM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 2:33 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
9/7/23; 12:36 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 12:07 PM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:55 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:37 AM EST = -5; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 11:04 AM EST = -19; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:58 AM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:49 AM EST = -21; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 10:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 8:37 AM EST = -3; signal line is +5
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = -5; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 1:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 10:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is +2; go short 4464; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but wants to flip back to the long side. The algo number is 6 points above the signal line but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to allow the move to the long side. It is more chop suey with stocks up, down, down, up, and back again.

Come Monday, if the SPX can gradually move higher above 4474 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. It is a coin-flip these days.

Yesterday, the bulls needed a gradual move high in the SPX to push the robot into going long but instead price shot up over 11 points higher out of the gate. That activity triggers a gap-up timer and does not allow the move to occur for about 90 minutes (the exact minutes will not be disclosed). Stocks print a high at about 10 AM EST and were downhill ever since staggering into the weekend.

The chips put a kibosh on the upside party failing into the bear camp shortly after Friday's opening bell but after that the bulls pumped banks higher to try and salvage the day and stop the semiconductor negativity.

On Monday morning, as banks go, so goes the stock market. Bears need XLF 34.25 with price at 34.30. Watch it in the pre-market. If stocks sell off on Monday but the XLF does not drop below 34.25, the bears got buptkis and stocks will recover.

Bulls will run higher if semiconductors run higher. Bulls need SOX above 3580 to prove they got upside game. If stocks rally but the SOX cannot achieve 3580, the rally will fade, roll over and die.

There are lots of other moving parts but XLF 34.25 and SOX 3580 is enough for you to know what is controlling stock market direction for Monday.

Copper soiled the sheets dumping -4% last week. If the economy is so rosy, including the glorified golf carts boondoggle (EV's), why is everyone shouting, "we don't need no steenkin' copper" and shunning Dr Copper like he is a lepper?

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/8/23; 10:27 AM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 9:43 AM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the robot spits out a dozen numbers yesterday a very active day start to finish. Stocks are crazy, going loco, with parameters flip-flopping unwilling to commit in either direction. Loco-motion by Little Eva.

The bulls punch back at yesterday's negativity and the algo wants to flip long with the algo number 5 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 4457 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Thus, 7 points of SPX upside is needed for the bulls to smile but S&P futures are down -6.

Bears need weaker chips and retail stocks if they want to create more selling in the stock market. Bears need SOX below 3581.51, price sits on top of this line in the sand, and/or RTH below 175.12 and price sits at this line in the sand as well. Higher volatility will also help bears. VIX is at 14.58 but bears cannot growl until VIX is above 15.10.

Bulls will be running stocks higher if they pump XLF above 34.25 and price begins at 34.23. Flip a coin with this drama going on. It is all game of pennies and dollars right now. Chips are marginally soggy in the pre-market. AMZN is negative pre-market and it drives the RTH. XLF slips to 34.17 in the pre-market so it makes sense that the S&P futures are marginally negative.

Chips, retail stocks, volatility and banks are controlling stock market direction today. 

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 2:33 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
9/7/23; 12:36 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 12:07 PM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:55 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:37 AM EST = -5; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 11:04 AM EST = -19; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:58 AM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:49 AM EST = -21; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 10:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 8:37 AM EST = -3; signal line is +5
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4464 but is already wanting to whipsaw back to the long side with the algo number 8 points above the signal line. The internal parameters are not fully latched so the robot did not flip long late day yesterday and it looks like today will be off to a soggy start. Watch banks and volatility.

The weakness in stocks started with a battle between copper and retail stocks and both failed into the bear camp. Then the banks collapsed followed by a spike in volatility. Late day, however, volatility and banks flip back into the bull camp so obviously these two parameters are controlling stock market direction currently.

Bears need VIX above 15.10 to create blood and carnage on Wall Street. Let's see, in real-time about an hour before the US open, the VIX is at 15.05. Bears only need another nickel to lock in negativity going forward.

Bears also need XLF below 34.24. XLF closed at 34.32 in the bull camp so it is a game of pennies. Let's see, in the pre-market, XLF is trading at...... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer for it ......... 34.22. Thus, all things same, the bears will receive more juice due to weak financials and the S&P futures are down -23 points. There's VIX at 15.09 now. Watch it closely.

VIX 15.10 and XLF 34.24 will tell you if the downside in the US stock market has legs.

On the last trade that ran for about a week, the losses from the previous trade are reversed. It is all choppy slop this year stocks running all over the creation but not going anywhere. Sounds like a Social D song. The benchmark SPX is up +16% on the year with the quant program down a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the robot down about -4% so far this year. Keybot exits IWM and enters DOG.

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = -5; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 1:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 10:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is +2; go short 4464; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)
9/6/23; 10:07 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 9:57 AM EST = +11; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 9:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +0
9/5/23; 3:57 PM EST = +27; signal line is -1
9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +43; signal line is -2
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is -4
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +43; signal line is -6
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9
8/29/23; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is -11
8/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -13
8/29/23; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -14
8/29/23; 9:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16; go long 4446; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish with the algo number a big 45 points above the signal line.

Bulls need higher utilities to prove that the upside rally has legs. Bulls need UTIL above 894. UTIL begins at 866.66.

Bears need  weaker copper, banks, chips and retail stocks while pushing volatility higher. Bears need CPER below 23.47 now at 23.71. That is a 1% difference and copper futures are currently down -0.9% so the bears are trying to halt the stock market rally with the red metal.

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +43; signal line is -2
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is -4
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +43; signal line is -6
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the upside party continues. Semiconductors rally so the bulls are walking around with their chests puffed-out. The quant is tracking retail stocks, mainly AMZN, banks and copper as the key parameters impacting stock market direction. Chips also remain important.

Bulls are cruising with the algo number 52 points above the signal line. The quant is quiet after the Tuesday orgy. August ends today (EOM) and September trading begins tomorrow with the US Monthly Jobs Report on tap.

Bears need either RTH below 174.93, XLF below 34.18 and/or CPER below 23.47. CPER is only 18 cents from the bull/bear line in the sand that is 0.8%. Copper futures are down -0.9%. Whoopsies, daisies. The bears are attacking the red metal this morning to stop the stock market rally.

1 of the 3 parameters turning bearish will halt the rally in stocks but 2 or all 3 are needed to kick-in a stronger move to the downside. Stocks may idle today waiting on the jobs report tomorrow morning.

9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side a couple hours ago at SPX 4446 as the choppy whipsaw slop continues. Today it is bull orgy time with traders tripping over each other to buy at the ask. Sectors jump into the bull camp catapulting stocks to the moon. The algo number is a whopping 52 points above the signal line the bulls came to play today.

Investors and traders believe that the Fed is done hiking so yields plummet as both stocks and notes/bonds are bot.

Copper and chips will likely signal a halt to the rally if it is in the cards. Bears need CPER below 23.46, that is only pennies away, and/or SOX below 3559. Either one turning bearish will stop the rally and both would reverse stocks back into sell-off mode continuing the choppy whipsaw slop.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program and actual trading rack-up more marginal losses due to the choppy slop and non-trending markets. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up +16%, the quant program is down -3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -4%. Keybot the Quant exits RWM and enters IWM.

Watch copper and chips. CPER is trading at 23.56 here on the East Coast at munchtime only a dime away from the bear's goal. SOX is trading at 3621 so bears need a drop of about 62 points in the semiconductor index if they want to growl, like Roy.

9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9
8/29/23; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is -11
8/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -13
8/29/23; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -14
8/29/23; 9:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16; go long 4446; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.9%)
8/28/23; 3:52 PM EST = -4; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 3:04 PM EST = -20; signal line is -18
8/28/23; 2:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -18
8/28/23; 1:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 12:58 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 12:57 PM EST = -18; signal line is -19 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 11:18 AM EST = -34; signal line is -19
8/28/23; 9:42 AM EST = -18; signal line is -19 but algorithm remains short
8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -18
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -17
8/24/23; 10:31 AM EST = -34; signal line is -16; go long 4428; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 4428. In these crazy sawtooth choppy sloppy markets, you can go to the can and by the time you return, stocks are going in the opposite direction. It is whipsaw city today down the road from Suffragette City.

The bears are back in control although, comically, who knows what is in store tomorrow when Pope Powell speaks at 10 AM EST (8 AM Jackson Hole mountain time)? Bears need weaker commodities and NYA index to create market carnage.

Bears need GTX below 3415 and/or NYA below 15574. Either one turning bearish will create market carnage and both turning negative will create a bloodbath on Wall and Broad.

The bulls are drowning their troubles drinking flat Fed wine, placing head in palms, opining that they "started out so happy, but now hung over and down." Bulls need stronger chips, banks, retail stocks and copper, and lower volatility. Other than that, things are going swimmingly for the bulls. That's a lot of moving parts.

Bulls need SOX above 3570, XLF above 34.17, RTH above 175.05, CPER above 23.51 and/or VIX below 15.43 to stop the stock market selling. Any one of these 5 metrics turning bullish will stop the selling and send stocks sideways. If they all remain in the bear camp, Katy bar the door, because stocks will be under serious negative assault.

If 2 of the 5 flip bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play and potential flip back to the long side. It is crazy markets that will have to choose a direction.

Remember the weekend comments? No? You must have a lousy memory. The UTIL 914.83, call it 915, line in the sand is in play next week so the closing price tomorrow will provide a heads-up for next week. UTIL is at 875 a big 40 points from the key level for next week so the bears are throwing confetti and celebrating while the bulls continue crying in their beer pleading with Powell to cheer lead stocks tomorrow. Weak utes are a very bad omen going forward placing a potential all-out stock market crash on the table currently.

On the last trade, that ran for only 4-1/2 trading hours, the quant program is flat and the actual trading loses -0.6%. It is death by a thousand cuts due to the many months of choppy slop (non-trending markets). For the year, the S&P 500 benchmark is up +15%, the algo program is down -2% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down almost -4% in 2023. Keybot exits QQQ and enters RWM remaining in single 1x ETF's due to the whipsaws occurring. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Powell.

8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/23; 10:31 AM EST = -34; signal line is -16; go short 4428; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)
8/24/23; 10:15 AM EST = -18; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains long
8/24/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -15
8/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains long
8/23/23; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -15
8/23/23; 3:33 PM EST = -2; signal line is -16
8/23/23; 1:15 PM EST = +14; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 12:43 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17; go long 4431; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.0%)