Wednesday, January 1, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- END OF YEAR RESULTS

Keybot the Quant remains long through the year end into the new 2014 year. The program is zeroed as always to begin the new year tomorrow morning. The SPX Benchmark Index is up a huge +26.9% in 2013, the biggest yearly gain in 16 years. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gained +17.8%. Keybot the Quant actual trading (the bottom line) gained +12.4% in 2014; a respectable gain but only half of the Benchmark. Keybot remains in SSO. The entries and exits for trades in 2013 are provided below. The slate is clean to begin the year. The bulls are running. Watch VIX 14.15 and GTX 4820 to see if the bears can develop juice. Bulls need UTIL above 493.50 to continue the upside party.

1/12/14; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/14; 9:00 AM EST =
1/5/14; 7:00 PM EST =
1/1/14; Begin 2014 Data Set = +63; signal line is +41; go long 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014  = 0%)(Keybot this trade = 0%; Keybot for 2014 = 0%)(Actual this trade = 0%; Actual for 2014 = 0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2014 on the Long Side from SPX 1848. All Data 0%. Begin 2014.

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

START 2014 PROGRAM

Begin Printing

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/14; 9:14 AM EST

START 2014 PROGRAM

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

END OF 2013 RESULTS:

SPX Benchmark Final 2013:  +26.9% Return (SPX Started at 1426 and Ended at 1848)

Keybot the Quant Actual Trading +12.4% Return Did Not Beat the SPX Benchmark

Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish position and a bearish position only.

Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2011:  27
Number of Broker Commissions Required During 2012:  54

Benchmark SPX During 2013:  +29.6% Return

Keybot the Quant Algorithm (the Computer Program Only) During 2013: +17.8% Return

Keybot the Quant Actual Trading (Actual Trading with the Quant Using ETF’s) During 2013:  +12.4% Return


12/31/2012
1426
Go Long
4:00 PM
DIA
130.57
2/21/2013
1498
Sell Long
2:08 PM
DIA
138.12
2/21/2013
1498
Go Short
2:08 PM
SDS
48.57
2/25/2013
1522
Cover short
9:30 AM
SDS
46.93
2/25/2013
1522
Go Long
9:30 AM
SPY
152.58
2/25/2013
1502
Sell Long
3:21 PM
SPY
150.35
2/25/2013
1502
Go Short
3:21 PM
SH
32.12
3/4/2013
1520
Cover short
2:25 PM
SH
31.69
3/4/2013
1520
Go Long
2:25 PM
DIA
140.69
3/19/2013
1540
Sell Long
1:23 PM
DIA
143.60
3/19/2013
1540
Go Short
1:23 PM
DOG
31.05
3/20/2013
1557
Cover short
11:15 AM
DOG
30.80
3/20/2013
1557
Go Long
11:15 AM
DIA
144.91
4/3/2013
1562
Sell Long
11:02 AM
DIA
145.77
4/3/2013
1562
Go Short
11:02 AM
SH
30.78
4/9/2013
1568
Cover short
12:32 PM
SH
30.63
4/9/2013
1568
Go Long
12:32 PM
DIA
146.43
4/15/2013
1566
Sell Long
12:58 PM
DIA
146.78
4/15/2013
1566
Go Short
12:58 PM
RWM
22.23
4/23/2013
1569
Cover short
9:30 AM
RWM
22.05
4/23/2013
1569
Go Long
9:30 AM
DIA
146.10
5/22/2013
1661
Sell Long
2:12 PM
DIA
153.34
5/22/2013
1661
Go Short
2:12 PM
SDS
38.66
6/7/2013
1633
Cover short
10:02 AM
SDS
39.81
6/7/2013
1633
Go Long
10:02 AM
SSO
79.56
6/12/2013
1622
Sell Long
11:51 AM
SSO
78.44
6/12/2013
1622
Go Short
11:51 AM
SDS
40.32
6/17/2013
1638
Cover short
9:30 AM
SDS
39.50
6/17/2013
1638
Go Long
9:30 AM
SPY
164.29
6/20/2013
1625
Sell Long
9:30 AM
SPY
161.94
6/20/2013
1625
Go Short
9:30 AM
SH
29.49
6/26/2013
1601
Cover short
9:31 AM
SH
29.65
6/26/2013
1601
Go Long
9:31 AM
DIA
148.53
8/7/2013
1691
Sell Long
9:35 AM
DIA
154.39
8/7/2013
1691
Go Short
9:35 AM
SDS
36.66
8/13/2013
1694
Cover short
12:50 PM
SDS
36.45
8/13/2013
1694
Go Long
12:50 PM
SSO
85.59
8/15/2013
1669
Sell Long
9:43 AM
SSO
83.19
8/15/2013
1669
Go Short
9:43 AM
SH
28.34
9/9/2013
1661
Cover short
9:30 AM
SH
28.48
9/9/2013
1661
Go Long
9:30 AM
SPY
166.21
9/27/2013
1689
Sell Long
9:59 AM
SPY
168.72
9/27/2013
1689
Go Short
9:59 AM
SDS
36.33
10/10/2013
1681
Cover short
10:45 AM
SDS
36.51
10/10/2013
1681
Go long
10:45 AM
SSO
84.47
10/23/2013
1746
Sell Long
9:51 AM
SSO
91.08
10/23/2013
1746
Go Short
9:51 AM
SDS
33.73
12/6/2013
1803
Cover short
12:41 PM
SDS
31.35
12/6/2013
1803
Go long
12:41 PM
SSO
97.48
12/10/2013
1803
Sell Long
11:56 AM
SSO
97.48
12/10/2013
1803
Go Short
11:56 AM
TWM
13.03
12/18/2013
1797
Cover short
2:36 PM
TWM
12.82
12/18/2013
1797
Go long
2:36 PM
SSO
96.73
12/31/2013
1848
Sell Long
4:00 PM
SSO
102.56
12/31/2013
1848
Go Long
4:00 PM
SSO
102.56

Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order

FINAL 2013

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/14; 7:27 AM EST

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/1/14; Algorithm Zeroed for 2014 Data = +63; signal line is +41; go long 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 Final = +29.6%)(Keybot this trade = +2.8%; Keybot for 2013 Final = +17.8%)(Actual this trade = +6.0%; Actual for 2013 Final = +12.4%)
12/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2013 = +63; signal line is +41
12/31/13; 3:45 PM EST = +63; signal line is +40
12/31/13; 2:30 PM EST = +49; signal line is +39
12/31/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +39
12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +38
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38
12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
12/19/13; 10:11 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
12/19/13; 9:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +36
12/18/13; 3:20 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
12/18/13; 2:38 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm stays long
12/18/13; 2:36 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36; go long 1797; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.0%)(Keybot this trade = +0.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +15.0%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2013 = +6.4%)
12/18/13; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36

Monday, December 30, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The last day of trading for 2013 is on tap tomorrow and Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers. The algo has to be closed out for the year and then 2014 begins with a clean slate again. UTIL is at 489 between the 493.50 the bulls need to signal more markets upside, and the 485.33 that will create broad market selling. Volatility jumped today but the bears need VIX 14.15 and higher to create market selling. VIX is at 13.56. Commodities lost ground as well dropping to GTX 4856 but the bears need 4822 to create market selling. Thus, things are status quo in Monday's trade. Equities float sideways.

For Tuesday, the EOM, EOQ4, EOY2013, last trading day of the year, starting at SPX 1841, the bulls need to push up through 1842.50 and the upside will accelerate to 1845 in a heartbeat and then potentially on to 1850. The bears need to push under 1839 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1840-1842 is sideways action. Surprisingly, the SPX remained in a tight 3-point range to begin the week. Considering the tight available sideways range for Tuesday, one side or the other should win; happy bulls above 1842.50 and happy bears under 1839. If UTIL drops under 485.33, GTX under 4822, and/or VIX above 14.15, any 2 of the 3 would do, Keybot would be in position to flip short. If any of the 3 parameters turn bearish a lid will be placed on the market upside and the caution flag will be out. Bulls need UTIL above 493.50 to take the SPX above 1850.

12/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2013 =
12/31/13; 10:00 AM EST =
12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Sunday, December 29, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the markets continue higher on holiday cheer. The bulls need to push UTIL above 492.93 and the bears need to push UTIL under 485.33. UTIL begins the week at 487.94. Without UTIL 492.93, the broad indexes should float sideways with a slight upward bias but instead the bulls are pushing price strongly higher. The bears need to push VIX above 14 to create market downside in addition to a push under UTIL 485.33. The bulls are cruising. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

The month, quarter and year ends on Tuesday evening; EOM, EOQ4, EOY2013. Despite the near non-stop upside for equities this year, the algorithms in general have difficulty due to the low volatility and low volume overall environment. A clean slate begins on Thursday morning for 2014. Keybot's results will be closed out for the end of the year and a new year for the algo will begin.

12/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2013 =
12/31/13; 10:00 AM EST = 
12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +38
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Friday, December 27, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls continue the upside market orgy in thin trading. The key parameters currently tracked by the algo continue to maintain status quo so the sideways to upward bias markets continue. The surprise is the extent of the price thrust higher. Utilities are the top parameter in focus currently. UTIL is 487.12. For this week, ending today, the bulls need UTIL 493 and higher to signal extended broad market upside ahead and the bears need UTIL under 477 to begin market selling. Price remains between the two parameters so there is very little impact on equities. For next week, however, the UTIL 477 number becomes meaningless and is replaced by 485.33. This is important since price is less than two ticks above. Watch UTIL into the closing bell today. If UTIL closes above 485.33, Monday will continue the bull party higher. If UTIL closes below 485.33, the market bears will show up first thing on Monday morning to flex their muscles in the broad indexes.

For the SPX starting at 1842, the bulls need less than one point higher, to touch the 1843 handle, and the upside acceleration continues. The bears need to drop below 1835 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1836-1842 is sideways action. The bulls are in charge but markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Thursday, December 26, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is bullish as the upside holiday melt-up continues. U.S. markets reopen for trading this morning after the Christmas holiday. UTIL is at 489. The bulls need to push above 493 and further upside in equities is justified. The bears will strive to prevent UTIL 493 and at the same time try to push price under 477 to create negativity. The bulls are cruising along in Santa's sleigh without a care or worry. Bears need to push utilities, copper and retail lower, and volatility higher, to stop the upside market momentum.

For the SPX starting at 1833, at new all-time highs, any positivity in the futures will create another upside acceleration, and S&P futures are +3 a couple hours before the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1828 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1829-1833 is sideways action. Low volume is expected so the bulls will likely keep markets elevated. Equities remain very unstable and erratic.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the bulls cruising towards Christmas. Equity markets close at 1 PM EST. The algo is tracking utilities, copper, volatility and retail with interest. The bulls need UTIL above 492.95 to signal further market upside. The bears need UTIL under 476.89, JJC under 39.92 and/or VIX above 14.20 to firmly stop the market upside. For the SPX starting at 1828, the bulls need 2 points, to touch the 1830 handle, and the upside party continues with an acceleration into the low and mid-1830's. UTIL 492.95 will dictate whether the upside is warranted, or not. The bears need to push under 1823, 5 points lower, to accelerate the downside. Markets remain highly unstable.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Monday, December 23, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new holiday-shortened week of trading begins. The pre-scheduled number bumps the algo number up by one tick. UTIL remains between the upper and lower boundaries, VIX remains calm, and copper remains elevated, status quo with the key market directional parameters right now, so markets float sideways to sideways higher. The bulls need UTIL 493.00 to prove that equities deserve to be moving higher from here. If UTIL cannot confirm the move higher, then equities will weaken ahead, however, bears got nothing unless they smash utes or copper, or pump volatility higher. The SPX punched through the 1823-1825 ceiling and ran to near 1829. Since the bears cannot yet weaken one of the parameters, the caution flag is removed. The bulls are driving the bus in firm control. Markets are erratic and unstable and can change on a dime, however.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38
12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38

Sunday, December 22, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to begin the new week of trading. The bulls need UTIL 492.35 and that will light the way for higher equities. The bears need UTIL 476.89, JJC 39.82 and/or VIX above 14.20, any 1 of the 3 would do, to stop the upside market rally. If all 4 parameters remain status quo, markets will float sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX, starting the week at 1818, the bulls need to touch the 1824 handle and upside acceleration happy time occurs again with the SPX moving to 1830. The bears need to push under 1810 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1811-1823 is sideways action for Monday. S&P futures on Sunday evening indicate a move higher of +5 which would send the SPX higher to tease the 1823-1824 resistance area. Copper is weak in early trading.  The bears need lower utilities, lower copper and/or higher volatility, and for the SPX to drop under 1810, to create the conditions for Keybot to potentially flip short. Therefore, the bulls are comfortably driving the bus but the markets remain very erratic and unstable so the caution flag remains out for another day. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning during this holiday-shortened Christmas week.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST =
12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37

Saturday, December 21, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers during the Friday session. The VIX collapsed at yesterday's opening bell so it was obvious that the bears were folding like a cheap suit. Interestingly, the VIX climbed all day after that and finished at the highs at 13.79 but remaining under the 14.20 bull-bear line in the sand (favoring bulls). The SPX performed the acceleration move and printed in the 1820's. UTIL moved higher closing at 488.34. The bulls need UTIL 492.35 to send the SPX to the 1820-1840 zone. The 4 parameters in the previous missive all remain bullish providing the upside market fuel. The bulls are comfortably driving the bus (algo number 23 points above the signal line) but if the bears create higher volatility and lower utilities, a move to the short side can be on tap in quick order, hence the caution flag remains out. The algo's priority areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37

Thursday, December 19, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. VIX came up to tease the 14.20 bull-bear line but remains one nickel on the bull side. Copper is very weak. JJC is at 40.20 and the 39.82 level will usher in market trouble. GTX is causing bullishness above 4807. Ditto UTIL remaining above 473.37.  For next week, the 473.37 level is meaningless and instead, 476.89 is key. Thus, into the Friday close, watch UTIL 477. Any closing print in this neighborhood and under tells you the markets will be weak Monday morning. If UTIL remains above 477, bulls will be happy. All 4 parameters above are bullish; bears need any one or more to cross the levels shown to create market negativity. If any 2 of the 4 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1801, and remains under, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1810, the bulls need to touch the 1811 handle and an acceleration will occur through the all-time high at 1814 in a heartbeat with price moving to 1820. If UTIL moves above 492.25, the SPX will be moving above 1820. The bears need to push under 1801 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1802-1810 is sideways action. Huge trading volume is expected due to OpEx and the S&P and Nasdaq rebalancing so a wild day may be on tap. The bulls are driving the bus but markets remain erratic and unstable. The imminent turn notation is displayed but if all 4 parameters above remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
12/19/13; 10:11 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. GTX moves above 4806 so this creates a support floor for equities and opens the door to higher numbers. The bulls are driving the bus. Watch GTX 4805.75 as the bull-bear line in the sand that will push equities one way or the other. Copper jumps to a higher priority since it is collapsing today. JJC is maintaining above 40. The bull-bear line in the sand that would cause broad market weakness is JJC 39.80 not that far away. If the dollar rises, copper and commodities should leak lower.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
12/19/13; 10:11 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
12/19/13; 9:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +36
12/18/13; 3:20 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side. For Thursday, the bulls need either GTX above 4805 and/or UTIL above 492.30 and it will be blue skies above for the broad markets. The bears need to push the VIX back above 14.20 or they got nothing. If GTX and UTIL stay bearish, and VIX stays bullish, markets stumble sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1811, the bulls need any smidge of green in the overnight futures and the upside party continues to immediately test the 1814 all-time intraday high and higher. The bears need to retrace the large 30-point up move to create mojo, a formidable task but not outside the realm of possibility, but instead, the bears will focus on an easier task of keeping commodities and utilities lower while pushing volatility higher to stop the upside market path. The bulls are driving the bus. Watch for a reversal at any time forward since the markets remain erratic and unstable, today's action a case in point. Pay attention to GTX 4805 and VIX 14.20.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/13; 3:20 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35

12/18/13; 2:38 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm stays long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long this afternoon at SPX 1797. The drop in the VIX is dramatic, losing the bull-bear line at 14.20 creating the big market bounce. The bulls are back in the driver's seat. As long as VIX stays under 14.20, equities should float higher. The algo program gained a smidge on the last trade but the actual trading lost -1.6% with the leveraged inverse ETF (due to the overall flatness of the broad indexes over the period). Keybot exited TWM and entered SSO. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw tomorrow or Friday. For now, the imminent turn status is removed due to the big jump in the SPX but if the VIX moves above 14.20 the imminent turn status would return.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/13; 3:20 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
12/18/13; 2:38 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm stays long
12/10/13; 2:36 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36; go long 1797; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.0%)(Keybot this trade = +0.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +15.0%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2013 = +6.4%)
12/18/13; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36
12/16/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37
12/13/13; 3:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39
12/13/13; 2:54 PM EST = +32; signal line is +40
12/13/13; 2:10 PM EST = +16; signal line is +41
12/13/13; 12:33 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42
12/13/13; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
12/13/13; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
12/13/13; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +44
12/12/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains short
12/11/13; 3:11 PM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 2:36 PM EST = +46; signal line is +46
12/11/13; 11:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 11:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains short
12/11/13; 9:39 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
12/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 1:47 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 12:31 PM EST = +32; signal line is +41
12/10/13; 12:21 PM EST = +46; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 11:56 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41; go short 1803; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.4%)(Keybot this trade = +0.0%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = +0.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the all-important Fed decision day. The algo did not print any numbers yesterday and prints a pre-scheduled number in about 3 hours. The algo appears most interested in financials and commodities. Bears need to push XLF under 21 to create market selling. Bulls need to push GTX above 4805 to create market buying. For the SPX starting at 1781, the bulls need to touch the 1787 handle to create an upside acceleration that will pop to 1794 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1777 to accelerate the downside to 1765 in quick order. A move through 1778-1786 is sideways action. If GTX moves above 4805 or VIX under 14.20, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 1787, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. If commodities and volatility, respectively, remain bearish, Keybot will likely remain short moving forward.

12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/16/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37

Monday, December 16, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Despite the up day, the 5 parameters listed in the previous post remain in place, status quo.  GTX moved higher to the 4805.75 bull-bear line in the sand but did not have the juice to move up through, as yet. The VIX is above 16; both the VIX and the SPX were up so one of them is wrong. Bears need XLF under 21. Bulls need GTX above 4805.75.

For the SPX starting at 1787, the bulls need to push above 1792 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1777.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1778-1791 is sideways action. If GTX moves above 4805.75, and the SPX above 1792, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip long. Markets are erratic and unstable and a rising VIX will increase the market moves up and down day to day and intraday.

12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/16/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37

Sunday, December 15, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish to begin the new week of trading. Watch UTIL 473.37, XLF 20.98 and SOX 503.25. All 3 will begin the week on the bull side, and the algo number will likely jump higher after the opening bell, so the bears need to move any one into the bear camp to continue the market downside. Watch GTX 4808 and VIX 14.04. Both are causing bearishness so the bulls need either one to turn bullish to begin an upside market rally party. If all 5 parameters remain in their respective camps, equities will move sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1775, the bulls need to touch the 1781 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. Bears need to push under the strong 1772 support to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1773-1780 is sideways action.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37
12/13/13; 3:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39

Saturday, December 14, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. UTIL kept bouncing above and below the 477.87 trap-door number and in the final minute of trading, closed 6 pennies under at 477.81. Isn't it amazing how Keybot can identify these numbers before they occur? The picture changes for next week, however, since the UTIL 477.87 number is now meaningless and is replaced by 473.37. Therefore, the market bulls will actually benefit at Monday's opening bell since UTIL will begin the week at 487 about 4 points above the new UTIL 473.37 trap-door number in effect for all of next week

Keybot is now tracking financials and semiconductors as a priority. Key areas of interest and price levels can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. Since UTIL will likely flip to the bull camp at Monday's opening bell, the caution notation remains in the title line, otherwise, it would have been removed. The bears are driving the bus.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/13/13; 3:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39
12/13/13; 2:54 PM EST = +32; signal line is +40
12/13/13; 2:10 PM EST = +16; signal line is +41
12/13/13; 12:33 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42
12/13/13; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
12/13/13; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
12/13/13; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +44