STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short the SPX.  Fickle volatility is making a move back up late session creating an interesting back drop for the close. If the VIX continues up, the bears will push the indexes down into the closing bell.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/23/11; 3:24 PM EST = -12

5/23/11; 2:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16

5/23/11; 9:31 AM EST = -12

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17

5/17/11; 3:34 PM EST = +2

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot remains short.  Despite the sour mood today, the SPX:VIX ratio moved above the 68 level a few hours ago and has stayed there all day, signaling that a more extended down move is off the table, for now.  The session has an hour remaining so keep an eye on it. The denominator component of that ratio, volatility, the VIX, fell back below the critical 17.66 level a short time ago which also signals that the bear's bark is worse than the bite today.

Stay on guard, markets remain unstable, but for now, the market bulls have kept a lid on the bearishness today. 

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/23/11; 2:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16

5/23/11; 9:31 AM EST = -12

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17

5/17/11; 3:34 PM EST = +2

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant wastes no time clicking off a number this morning.  The algorithm moved more bearish as volatility jumped after the opening bell. Use the SPX:VIX ratio as a guide today.  A drop under 68 signals a major selling event, which occurred at the open today, but, right now, the ratio prints 69.06 so it managed a move back above.  Above 68 for the ratio will signal that the selling event will be short-lived and the indexes will recover.  If the ratio remains under 68, the selling will be extensive today. Stay on guard, markets remain unstable.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/23/11; 9:31 AM EST = -12

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17

5/17/11; 3:34 PM EST = +2

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the new trading week. Markets are very much a bull-bear struggle the last couple weeks.  Financials, semi's, commodities and copper are bearish while utilities, retail and lower volatility are bullish.

The VIX 17.66 level is key.  Now at 17.43, if the VIX moves above 17.66, the market bears will be in control and the indexes will sell off.  If the bulls can maintain the VIX below 17.66, market buoyancy will continue.

For tomorrow, if the SPX touches 1342, the market bulls will drive the indexes higher. If the SPX drops under 1330.67, then the bears are in control and selling will accelerate driving markets lower. If 1330.67 is lost, watch the VIX to see if the move down is in concert with the VIX above 17.66, if so, the day will definitely be in the bears control. If not, then the move down in the indexes will simply be another blip and indexes will become buoyant again as the day proceeds.

If the market bulls drive the SPX higher but do not attain the 1342 handle, then all that means is the bull-bear struggle and sideways funk will continue along.

The algorithm clicks off only one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday at 10 AM.  We saw how interesting the algorithm operates, one day it may click off six or more numbers, but other days, like Thursday and Friday, Keybot simply idles along, continuously scanning, but not printing out any numbers. Thus, stay tuned.  Caution is warranted since markets continue to be unstable.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17

5/17/11; 3:34 PM EST = +2

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the final session of the week begins. The algorithm had a wild start on Monday, clicking off six numbers, but, since then, not so much. The last two sessions very quiet with nothing going on; markets simply idling sideways.

For today, if the SPX gets above 1345, then the market bulls will run the indexes a few handles higher today.  By the look of the futures, markets actually want to give back some at the opening bell. Market bears need to push the SPX under 1337 if they expect to increase the selling.

Continue to watch volatilty which has collapsed since Wednesday afternoon, hence, the indexes show buoyancy.  The minute charts show positive divergence for volatility so a bounce is expected, and this would verify the bearish posture in the indexes to start the day.  Market bulls continue to be happy and complacent, no worries, no fears.  VIX at 15.52 will need to gain two points before market bears can get anything substantial going on the down side.  If VIX remains under 17.5-ish, then the market bulls will maintain the current market buoyancy.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 3:34 PM EST = +2

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The bull-bear fight continues with retail and utilities supporting the bull case; semi's, commodities, copper and financials all supporting the bear case.

Volatilty dropped back down to favor the bulls in the final half hour of trading yesterday. Continue to monitor VIX 17.65 level.  If below, the market bulls refuse to give up and will continue creating buoyancy in the indexes.  If above, the indexes will be selling off.

For today, all the market bulls need to do is to push the SPX above 1330.42, only a point or two up after the open, and the markets will remain buoyant and float upwards.  If, however, the SPX cannot get above 1330.42 today, then the bears will push the markets lower with a negative bias. Market bears cannot push markets substantially lower unless they would push under the 1319 handle today. If 1319 is lost, then the selling in the indexes will accelerate. Possible pivot point at 2 PM EST today with the FOMC Minutes.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 3:34 PM EST = +2

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the Tuesday session. A crazy start to the week with the algorithm clicking off six numbers yesterday. The pre-scheduled number just clicked off and is now negative, -12, first time in a couple months for a negative number.  Thus, the bears are in firm control now.  Market bulls are trying to cling on to utilities and retail.

For today, the market bulls can recover if the SPX gets above 1343.  SPX starts at 1329, and, by the look of the futures, this is a formidable task for bulls.  Market bears, however, have the wind at their back now; time to see if they can run with the ball.  If the SPX loses the 1327 handle, only moving a couple points lower once the bell rings, then the selling in the indexes will accelerate.

Of special note, by Keybot's metrics, the housing market has slipped back into a double dip today.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot remains short as volatilty spiked into the close. Bears have the upper hand but markets remain unstable and indecisive.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Volatility increased past the 17.66 that the algorithm had tagged as an important level.  Also, the SPX 1333.36 level is lost.  Both of these items are bearish.

Market bears are pushing markets lower now and selling will increase unless the volatilty, VIX, drops back under 17.66.  VIX now at 17.74.  Keybot is off to another crazy start this week, clicking off four numbers today already.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

The ebb and flow continues. Keybot remains short.  Semi's weaken again.  Volatility is the key for the afternoon.  VIX, now at 17.51, is only pennies from the critical 17.64 level.  If the VIX moves above 17.64, the broad market selling will increase and accelerate this afternoon. If not, more sideways slop. Remember, a drop below SPX 1333.36 and selling should accelerate.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot remains short but the algorithm is above the signal line, thus, markets remain unstable and indecisive.  Semi's brightened and took the indexes up over the last hour.  If the SOX stays above 441 today, now at 443, then the market bulls will maintain the buoyancy in the indexes. Market bears are content as well with todays sideways action, as long as the SPX does not exceed 1350, if the SPX moves above 1350, the market bears are toast.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot kicks off the week with a number confirming the short side currently, but, the day is early and the tape is very jumpy.  Volatility jumped in the bears favor at the open but then prompltly moved back to the bull side minutes after the bell. Caution is warranted since the algorithm is within only six points of the signal line.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short the SPX to start the new trading week of 5/16/11. Below is the algorithm printout that gets everyone back up to date after the Blogger outage. Sunday's release number is included since Keybot is idling now until 9:30 AM EST Monday.

The SPX was flat last week but you would never think that considering all the drama.  Despite the volatility remaining low, the indexes behaved as if the volatility was high anyways, with triple digit Dow point swings from bull to bear and bear to bull each day. This may hint that volatility will make a move higher this coming week.

If the VIX moves over 17.66, now at 17.07, then the market bears can keep Friday's slide going.  If the VIX remains under 17.66, as it is now, then the market bulls will wrestle back control.

Current markets remain a fight between bearish copper, commodities and financials against bullish utilities, semi's, retail and volatility.  Semi's are sitting on the bull-bear fence this weekend as highlighted below.  Retail is simply astounding, the big surprise sector currently and most definitely, along with utes, are keeping the bulls afloat.

As a most simple tool to use after the open tomorrow, simply watch the semiconductors, SOX, now at 440.95.  If this index simply loses 14 pennies after Monday's open, and goes sub 440.81, then the broad markets will continue selling off.  If, however, the SOX remains above 440.81 and wants to drift higher as the day proceeds, then the market bulls will be back in control of the broad indexes.

If the SPX moves over 1350.47 on Monday, the broad markets will accelerate higher.  If the SPX moves under 1333.36, the selling will accelerate several more spoo handles and the broad markets will all continue lower. The SPX is currently at 1337.77, thus, the bears have a slight edge, only four points away from being able to push the markets further south.

Caution is warranted since the +30 algorithm number is within 9 of the signal line. The algorithm wants to go long but additional rules in the program are preventing the move, at least so far.  This behavior has been in place for three days in a row. Continue to stay on guard and expect the unexpected.  Markets remain unstable.

Keybot clicks off one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning.  Stay tuned since the algorithm should continue to click off additional numbers in real-time during trading hours.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =

6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14

5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22

5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0

5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14

5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23

5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)

5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25