STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the new trading week. The bears need to achieve UTIL 480.65 and/or 477.91, call it 481 and 478, as described in the previous post, and the markets will be dropping in force.  The bulls need to move the VIX back under 13.23 and/or the JJC above 41.50 to regain the bull mojo. If UTIL stays above 481, VIX above 13.23 and JJC below 41.50, status quo, then the equity markets float along sideways until one of the three parameters changes sides.

For the SPX starting at 1631, closing at the lows on Friday, the bears only need to see red futures overnight Sunday and the test of 1626-1627 support should occur in quick order. The bulls need to keep the futures green and prevent UTIL 481 from failing after the opening bell with all their might. Bulls will lose their grip on the markets if UTIL 481 fails.  A move through SPX 1632-1658 is sideways action. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Markets remain erratic and unstable, involved in a bull-bear fight for leadership, as the small four-point spread between the algo number and signal line verifies.

6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST =

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =

6/2/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +36; signal line is +40

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot remains bearish through the weekend.  The algo quietly moves through last week without printing any numbers except for the two pre-scheduled numbers. In a nutshell, the bears are creating market weakness with higher volatility and weakness in copper and commodities. The bulls continue to own most every other sector.  For next week, utilities are the key focus and will determine market direction. Two numbers are important; UTIL 480.65 and UTIL 477.91. UTIL begins the week at 482.16. If the 481 level fails, the broad indexes are in serious trouble with increased selling on tap. If 478 fails, that should act as a trap-door for markets and a large flush lower will likely occur such as a 10 to 30-handle drop in the S&P's in a matter of an hour or two. If UTIL stays above 481, the bulls will be sipping champagne by mid-week.

Other parameters and areas of interest can be identified once the standard Sunday number prints tomorrow.

6/2/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41

5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears make an initial run lower under the 1649 but could not hold this support failure so the bulls recover. The pre-scheduled number results in a tightening of the algo number to signal line spread to only five points. JJC remains well below 41.54 and VIX above 13.17 so the bears are happy. UTIL remains above 480.65 so the bulls are happy. Markets stumble sideways since none of these three parameters want to change sides.  The beat goes on.  SPX 1649 is important today.

6/2/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41

5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish moving into the Friday session.  Today is the last day of May. The algo continues to idle through the week without printing any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number on Tuesday. The same drama is in place. Bulls need to achieve either VIX 13.17 or JJC 41.54 to receive the all-clear signal for market upside. Bears need to achieve UTIL 480.65 to cause markets to sell off strongly. The broad indexes will motor along sideways until one of these three parameters make a decision.

For the SPX today starting at 1654, the bulls need to touch the 1662 handle and an upside party will result. The bears need to push under 1649 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1650-1661 is sideways action. The S&P futures are -11 at this writing four hours before the U.S. open indicating that the bears will make a run lower to begin the day. Markets remain very erratic and unstable. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

6/2/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish and has not printed any numbers this week except for the pre-scheduled number on Tuesday. Watch JJC 41.55, VIX 13.15 and UTIL 480.65. Copper and volatility, JJC and VIX, respectively, are causing market bearishness right now so the bulls need to attain one of the values listed to start the markets higher again. Utilities, UTIL, are causing market bullishness right now so the bears need to push UTIL under 480.65 to receive strong downside momo. Yesterday, UTIL failed but only for a couple minutes before quickly recovering.  The broad indexes dodge a bullet since many algo's will click in to the downside with accelerated market selling if UTIL 480.65 fails.

For the SPX starting at 1648, bulls and bears both need an 8 point swing in their favor to claim victory. The bulls need to move up through 1656 and touch the 1657 handle to accelerate the upside and the bears need to push under 1640 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1641-1656 is sideways action. In a nutshell, the bulls need higher copper and lower volatility while the bears need lower utilities. Markets remain unstable.

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish moving into the Tuesday session. The bulls push hard to the upside but could not move copper higher or volatility lower, so they ran out of gas. Watch JJC 41.58, VIX 13.15 and GTX 4785. All three are in the bear camp. The bulls need to attain at least one of these three levels to develop upside oomph and place Keybot in a position to want to go long.  The bears will try to maintain this negativity moving forward and at the same time drive the utilities lower. If UTIL loses the 481 level, the broad indexes will weaken substantially. The bulls can hang on if they keep UTIL above 481 (now at 492).

For the SPX starting at 1660, the bulls need to revisit yesterday's high above 1674 to develop upside mojo. The bears need to push under 1653, about seven points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1654-1673 is sideways action. The S&P futures are down 6 at this writing about five hours before the opening bell. Markets remain erratic and very unstable.

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the broad indexes explode higher on the weaker yen. Watch VIX 13.13 and JJC 41.60 and both currently remain in the bear camp. The bulls need to win over one or both of these parameters to continue the upside and push Keybot to the long side. Bears need to keep both in the bear camp to create market weakness despite the strong pop higher. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short during the holiday weekend. Trading resumes Tuesday morning. Volatility and copper remain key. Watch VIX 13.13 and JJC 41.73. Both are causing market negativity right now. If the broad indexes recover, the bulls need at least one of these two sectors to verify the recovery, if not, the markets will likely roll over again after any bounce. The algo is also tracking utilities; the UTIL 481 level. Markets will become far more negative if 481 fails but the bulls will be in continual position to regain control of markets as long as UTIL stays above 481.

For the SPX starting at 1650, the bulls only need to see green futures overnight Monday and a market bounce will be on tap Tuesday morning with the SPX moving up towards 1660. The bears need to push price under 1637 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1638-1650 is sideways action for Tuesday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number one-half hour after the markets reopen so the action can be updated at that time. Another pre-scheduled number prints this week on Friday morning. The month of May ends on Friday, EOM. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

6/2/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42

5/23/13; 9:45 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish over the holiday weekend. The algo idles along on Friday without printing any numbers. Volatility and copper remain key for next week. Levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/23/13; 9:45 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44

5/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Friday session. VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.77 remain key. Both are creating bearishness in markets so the bulls need to regain one or both of these levels. For the SPX starting at 1651, the bulls need to move above 1655.50 and the upside will accelerate. The bears need to drop under 1637 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1638-1655 is sideways action today. If either VIX or JJC reach the levels shown above, and the SPX moves towards 1656 and higher, Keybot may flip back to the long side, otherwise, the bears will maintain control. Markets remain erratic and very unstable.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/23/13; 9:45 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44

5/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The utilities sector experiences a mini flash crash in the first few minutes of trading but recovers. UTIL 481 is a bull-bear line that the algo is now tracking with interest. UTIL is printing 497 and market bears would receive more downside fuel if 481 is lost. Higher volatility and lower copper and commodities are the main negative drivers in place right now.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/23/13; 9:45 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44

5/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +44

5/22/13; 3:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is +46 but algorithm says stay short

5/22/13; 2:12 PM EST = +32; signal line is +46; go short 1661; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +16.5%)(Keybot this trade = +5.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = +5.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side. Volatility spiked and copper tumbled lower creating market negativity. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw tomorrow. Watch VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.77. In the final few minutes, copper recovered to close at JJC 41.82, jumping back into the bull camp, creating the lift in equities into the closing bell. Watch copper overnight since positivity will lead to a bull recovery tomorrow but negativity in copper will continue the market push lower.

Keybot exited DIA and entered SDS, a double inverse ETF. The last trade results in a 6% gain for the algo program and 5% gain in actual trading. For the SPX on Thursday starting at 1655, the bears need to push under the strong 1649-1650 support to take the next leg lower. Bulls need to recover today's losses and then some, a huge task of about 33 points of upside, a formidable endeavor, but never say never in these crazy markets. Instead, the bulls will focus on pushing copper higher and volatility lower to stem the downside. Markets remain erratic and unstable, simply look at today's action. Tomorrow the bears show if they have any gusto, or not.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/22/13; 3:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is +46 but algorithm says stay short

5/22/13; 2:12 PM EST = +32; signal line is +46; go short 1661; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +16.5%)(Keybot this trade = +5.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = +5.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.5%)

5/22/13; 10:20 AM EST = +48; signal line is +46

5/22/13; 10:13 AM EST = +62; signal line is +46

5/22/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45

5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long

5/21/13; 11:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44

5/21/13; 10:34 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long

5/21/13; 10:12 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45

5/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +45

5/20/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43

5/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +32; signal line is +42 but algorithm says stay long

5/19/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +41

5/17/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40

5/16/13; 3:58 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38

5/16/13; 3:47 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long

5/16/13; 10:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38

5/16/13; 10:01 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long

5/16/13; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38

5/15/13; 1:35 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37

5/15/13; 12:40 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long

5/13/13; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37

5/12/13; 7:00 PM EST = +62; signal line is +36

5/10/13; 3:54 PM EST = +62; signal line is +34

5/8/13; 11:04 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33

5/8/13; 9:32 AM EST = +62; signal line is +32

5/5/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31

5/3/13; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31

5/2/13; 10:14 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31

5/1/13; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31

4/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +32

4/30/13; 10:45 AM EST = +46; signal line is +32

4/30/13; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31

4/30/13; 9:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm says stay long

4/28/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32

4/26/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +32

4/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 1569; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +10.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2013 = +0.9%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2013 = +0.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. JJC is 42.05 above the 41.79 bull-bear line, bullish.  VIX is 13.44 above the 13.12 bull-bear line, bearish. The algo is active today. Note that there is only two points separating the algo number and signal line showing that the markets are at an inflection point. Bulls need lower volatility and bears need lower copper. JJC 41.79 and VIX 13.12 will tell the story today.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/22/13; 10:20 AM EST = +48; signal line is +46

5/22/13; 10:13 AM EST = +62; signal line is +46

5/22/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper bounces today playing spoiler for the bears. Watch VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.79. VIX is 13.39, surprisingly remaining bearish, while JJC is 42.11 flipping into the bull camp creating market buoyancy.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/22/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45

5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo wants to flip short but the internal signals are not lining up properly to commit to the short side. Bears had another golden opportunity yesterday but could not create enough downside energy. Watch VIX 13.11, JJC 41.77 and GTX 4795. All are in the bear camp right now creating market negativity but copper is up this morning favoring the bulls once again. For the SPX starting at 1669, the bulls need to touch the 1675 handle to accelerate the upside into the 1680's. The bears need to push under 1663 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1664-1674 is sideways action. If the SPX drops under 1663, Keybot will likely flip short. If JJC moves above 41.77 or the VIX drops back under 13.11, the bulls will maintain leadership moving forward. Markets remain erratic and unstable as the bulls march higher.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long

5/21/13; 11:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - -LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long in a very active day for the algo. As highlighted this morning, volatility and copper are running the show today, VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.77, respectively. At the 10:34 AM signal, Keybot was a hair away from going short but the internal programming rules held it back.  Then the SPX runs higher to punch through the 1673 the bulls needed to accelerate the upside. The SPX petered out after a HOD at 1674.93 so only a two handle jump occurs past 1673. VIX now jumps back above 13.12 which is causing the SPX to drift lower again.

Keybot wants to flip short right now but is held back since the proper signals are not lined up correctly. Under the current conditions, the SPX needs to drop under 1662.67, and hold that failure for five minutes, and Keybot will flip short, otherwise, Keybot will remain long through the closing bell. A turn appears imminent. The bears had it in their grasp this morning, once again, only to run out of gas and let the bulls maintain control. Bears need the SPX to drop under 1663.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long

5/21/13; 11:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44

5/21/13; 10:34 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long

5/21/13; 10:12 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45

5/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper buoyancy (JJC) provides market lift but JJC is dancing all around the 41.77 bull-bear line. VIX is under 13.12 by pennies. Things can go either way today. Watch JJC 41.77, VIX 13.12 and GTX 4795. The imminent turn notation is removed once again since the bulls are bouncing copper.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +45

5/20/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. Volatility spiked higher (helping market bears) yesterday only to fall back (helping bulls) as it has for many times recently. At the same time, copper rose yesterday. The algo identifies three key parameters most affecting market direction; volatility, copper and commodities. Watch VIX 13.12, JJC 41.76, and GTX 4800, respectively. VIX is 13.02 creating market upside. JJC is 41.67 and GTX is 4760 creating market downside. The movement of these three parameters will dictate market direction.

The market bulls want the VIX to stay under 13.12 while moving JJC above 41.76 and/or GTX above 4800. If JJC moves above 41.76, the SPX will move well into the 1670's. If both JJC and GTX turn bullish the SPX is likely headed for the 1680's and much higher. The bears want to move the VIX above 13.12 to provide downside negativity for markets while at the same time maintaining the JJC and GTX bearishness. This action may begin more extended market selling moving forward.

For the SPX starting at 1666, the bulls need to touch the 1673 handle and it is off to the races higher with price moving towards 1680. The bears need to push under 1664 to create a downside acceleration.  A move through 1665-1672 is sideways action.  If the VIX moves above 13.12 and the SPX drops under 1664, it is likely that Keybot will flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. However, if JJC prints above 41.76, the bulls will likely maintain full control moving forward. At this writing, about four hours before the U.S. opening bell, copper is lower. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/20/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. Volatility falls again so the same-o story plays out in the bulls favor.  Watch VIX 13.12, now at 13.07, market bullish. The broad indexes are flat to positive on the day thus far. The imminent turn notation is removed but the caution sign remains since the algo number is only three points from the signal line. Market bears need VIX under 13.12 and SPX under 1653 today to see the algo flip short.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/20/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43

5/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +32; signal line is +42 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading begins. Out of the gate the algo prints a number which triggers a desire to go short but other internal programming rules are not in line as yet to allow the move to the short side. One of the key critieria the algo would need to see is last Friday's low at the 1652.50-ish area. The SPX is now printing a 1664 handle comfortably twelve points above. Keybot will not flip short unless the SPX drops under 1653-ish today. Remember, Keybot is not programmed to catch the exact tops and exact bottoms so it will always relinquish a few handles at the turns.

Volatility jumps at the bell which creates the market weakness. The algo is tracking VIX 13.10-13.11 and the current print is 13.24, above, so the bears are making another run again trying to push the indexes lower. Each time recently that the VIX has turned bearish (moving higher), the bulls came along and jammed it lower to save the day for the SPX. Watch VIX 13.10-ish closely today since it will tell you the preferred direction; above 13.10 is happy bears and below 13.10 is happy bulls. Watch SPX 1653-ish since that is the area today that Keybot would likely flip short, if it occurs. The imminent turn notation is highlighted in the title again. Keybot is ready to go short but the bears have to push the broad indexes lower to show they mean business and allow the algo to commit.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =

5/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +32; signal line is +42 but algorithm says stay long

5/19/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +41