STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybo the Quant remains long as Americans enjoy hamburgers, hotdogs and apple pie while waving US flags this weekend. US markets are closed until Tuesday morning in honor of Memorial Day tomorrow (Monday).

The market theatrics continue. Bulls and bears battle with the algo number only one point from the signal line verifying the tug-o-war fight. Financials and copper dictate broad stock market direction currently. The bulls need JJC to move up through 29.45 (now at 29.09) to signal the all-clear for upside in stocks and more new all-time record highs. GTX above 2287 (now at 2257) will also provide bull fuel.

Bears need to push XLF under 23.55 (now at 23.61 only 6 pennies above) to begin a forceful selling pattern in the stock market. The VIX moving above 11.77 (now at 9.81) will also provide bear fuel.

If the XLF falls under 23.55, or VIX above 11.77, either one would do although if the bears begin taking control the banks will likely fail first, and if the SPX drops under 2412, Keybot will likely flip short.

Watch copper trading overnight Monday into Tuesday morning since higher copper will place the stock market in party mode to begin the holiday-shortened week of trading. If copper is trading negatively, the market bears will smile.

For the SPX starting the week on Tuesday morning at 2416, the bulls only need one point of upside, to touch the 2417 level and bingo, price will be above 2420 in a flash moving higher printing new all-time highs. The bears need to push  below 2412 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2413-2415 is sideways action on Tuesday and since it is so tight a range, a winner will be decided either sub 2412 for happy bears or above 2416 for happy bulls.

The algorithm is beginning to flag utilities as a major player in market direction again but not quite yet. UTIL begins the week at 720 in a bullish pattern which helps create upside in the broad stock market. For the four-day trading week ahead, UTIL 672.16 and 678.00 are two key levels. With price at 720, the bulls are not worried about utes creating any stock market negativity.

However, for the following week, the week of 6/5/17, the two key UTIL levels are 699.49 and 678.00-ish. This is a whole new ball game. At 4 PM EST on Friday, 6/2/17, at the closing bell, watch to see where UTIL closes since under 699.49 will create negativity in the stock market starting 6/5/17. Utilities rallied strong last week since the bulls already know this situation is developing and they are trying to goose UTIL price higher to get it up and as far away from 699.49 as possible. Watch UTIL closely this week.

Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday, the EOM print on Wednesday and another number on Friday morning. XLF 23.55, JJC 29.45 and SPX 2412 tell you everything you need to know for broad stock market direction on Tuesday. The beat goes on.

6/4/17; 7:00 PM EST =

6/2/17; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/17; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69

5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algorithm is very active in the back half of the week. The market bears were pushing lower on Wednesday but did not have enough juice to flip the model short. The pre-scheduled number for this week printed a few minutes ago. The knock-down drag-out fight between bulls and bears continues as evidenced by the 1 point difference between the algo number and signal line. Note that the algo prints another rare and maximum +100 reading yesterday morning.

Watch financials. Bears need XLF under 23.55 (now at 23.62 only 7 pennies above) to begin serious downside selling in stocks. If XLF fails at 23.55 and the SPX falls under 2408, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. VIX moving above 11.78 (now at 9.99) will also help the bears.

Bulls need higher copper and commodities to prove they can take stocks higher. Bulls need JJC above 29.45 (now at 29.17) and it is all clear for upside for equities with the SPX running to 2420 and 2430. Bulls also need GTX above 2287 (now at 2245) which will create a big upside rally. 

Bears are rooting for  weaker banks (XLF under 23.55) while bulls need higher copper (JJC above 29.45). One or the other will win and that tells you the broad stock market direction ahead.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69

5/25/17; 2:36 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69

5/25/17; 11:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +69

5/25/17; 11:48 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68

5/25/17; 10:57 AM EST = +86; signal line is +68

5/25/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68

5/24/17; 3:36 PM EST = +84; signal line is +67

5/24/17; 2:08 PM EST = +68; signal line is +66

5/24/17; 12:26 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66

5/24/17; 12:24 PM EST = +68; signal line is +65

5/24/17; 12:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long

5/24/17; 11:01 AM EST = +68; signal line is +66

5/23/17; 3:09 PM EST = +84; signal line is +65

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the intense market drama continues. Keybot prints an astounding and rare +100 number representing the maximum possible reading for the algorithm (which is an oscillator at its heart). A +100 number represents an off-the-charts uber bullish stock market and likely a significant multi-week, month and/or year top forming.

Comically, the rare +100 number is becoming more and more common. The times that +100 has printed over the near 9-year life of the model is six times; 12/19/16-12/25/16; 1/17/17-1/19/17; 1/31/17; 2/10/17-3/5/17; 4/15/17 and now. Just think, at some point in the future, maybe two or three years down the road, the algo may be printing at -100.

Copper, financials, volatility and commodities continue to rule the roost and dictate broad stock market direction. Note that JJC closed exactly on the 29.47-29.48 level called out by the algorithm before it happened. That is always impressive when it happens with regularity. The banks turned bullish with XLF above 23.55 which created yesterday's rally. Obviously. the pivot from JJC 29.47 dictates market direction. Copper trades lower overnight. The banks, the XLF 23.55 level, remains key as well.

The market bears will benefit if VIX moves above 11.81 (now at 10.49) and/or GTX below 2291 (now at 2301). The key is copper and banks. Bulls will be taking stocks far higher with the SPX running above 2400 if JJC moves above 29.48 and XLF stays above 23.55 with both moving higher.

If JJC dips under 29.47 and moves lower, the stock market rally will stall. If XLF slips under 23.55, stocks will begin selling off more aggressively. The beat goes on.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST =

5/23/17; 3:09 PM EST = +84; signal line is +65

5/23/17; 2:28 PM EST = +100; signal line is +63

5/23/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +62

5/23/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +59

5/22/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side yesterday at SPX 2390. Interestingly, both the commodities (GTX) and volatility (VIX) turned bullish creating higher stock prices. In the afternoon, copper turned bullish which was a punch to the bear's soft belly. Markets remain in the sideways choppy pattern that chews up bulls and bears alike. Low volatility wreaks havoc on trading algorithms.

Copper will immediately tell you broad stock market direction today. Watch JJC 29.47 at the opening bell. Price is at 29.50 in the bull camp that caused lift in the stock market late yesterday. Market bears need JJC to fall under 29.47 and head lower which will signal that further upside in equities will not occur. Bulls win if copper keeps moving higher. Copper is down -0.5% in trading overnight.

Market bulls need the higher copper to keep the upside going and then need stronger banks. Financials are the laggard and XLF will need to move above 23.55 (now at 23.41) to prove that the SPX will jump above 2400 and rock and roll higher. Bears are fine if they can keep XLF under 23.55 and send JJC under 29.47.

Market bears need JJC under 29.47 and either GTX under 2291 or VIX above 11.81. If 2 of these 3 occur and the SPX drops under 2387, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that only lasted three days, the Keybot computer program loses -0.6% and the actual trading dumps about -1%. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark index is up a healthy +6.7%. The algorithm program is down -0.7%. The actual trading is down about -5% thus far this year. The sideways choppiness should subside in the weeks ahead.

For today, simply watch JJC 29.47, XLF 23.55, VIX 11.81 and GTX 2291. They will tell you everything you need to know about broad stock market direction; copper, banks, volatility and commodities, respectively.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST =

5/22/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58

5/22/17; 9:38 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57; go long 2390; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -5.2%)

5/22/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55

5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish which is surprising considering the market joy late last week. To prove that up is the direction for the stock market one of these four things need to happen; either GTX above 2290 (now only 1 point away at 2289), VIX above 11.77 (now at 12.04), JJC above 29.51 (now at 29.33) or XLF above 23.59 (now at 23.35). Commodities are important along with volatility, copper and financials, respectively.

If either JJC moves above 29.51 and/or XLF above 23.59, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2389, Keybot will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. if either commodities or volatility turn bullish, this may not be enough to cause the algo to go long unless both turn bullish.

Market bears will benefit from weaker retail stocks and the equity market will collapse if RTH loses 80.33 (now at 81.94). Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST =

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55
5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side but the bulls are staging a comeback. The algo has not printed any numbers since it went short on Wednesday. Interestingly, the rally action after the Wednesday selloff in stocks does not result in the algorithm printing any higher numbers, so far.

That may change at anytime and Keybot is tracking several key parameters. The upside rally will be confirmed and have legs if XLF moves above 23.59, or VIX below 11.76, or JJC above 29.50 or GTX above 2289. So bulls need higher banks, lower volatility, higher copper and higher commodities. If all four remain bearish, the stock market rally will likely peter out and roll over to the downside.

If one of the four turn bullish, Keybot may be in position to flip back to the long side. Market bears must hold the line on the four parameters listed.

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Wednesday morning at SPX 2376 the market is dragged lower by weak banks and higher volatility. The algo number is 16 points under the signal line with the bears in control. Bears will receive further downside strength if retail stocks weaken with RTH under 80.15 (now causing lift in the stock market at 80.69).

The bulls will signal an end to the stock market selling if either XLF moves above 23.59 (now at 23.06) or VIX under 11.95 (now at 15.59).

Keybot flips short at the same exact SPX 2376 level that it went long at on the way up resulting in zero percent change for the algo program. The actual trading is also flat on the last trade. The benchmark S&P 500 Index remains up +6.1% so far this year. Keybot exited DIA and entered SDS. The 35 day timer has expired from the whipsaw moves in early April so the algo is now using 2x ETF's again.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and weaker semiconductors. Bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility. The beat goes on.

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)

5/17/17; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains long

5/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +56

5/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +55

5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long

5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long

5/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long

5/11/17; 11:13 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54

5/11/17; 10:23 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53

5/7/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +53

5/5/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52

5/2/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52

5/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +52

4/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +50

4/28/17; 3:53 AM EST = +54; signal line is +50

4/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +50

4/25/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +49

4/24/17; 3:07 PM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG-- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints one number to begin the week yesterday confirming the bull strength in stocks. Keybot also prints a number this morning before the opening bell which was a pre-scheduled number for this week. Note how the bulls and bears are battling with both the algo number and signal line number at +54 from late last week through Sunday.

Financials rally yesterday slapping the bears in the face. Slap, slap. Market bears need XLF under 23.61 and if this occurs, along with the SPX moving under 2394, Keybot would likely flip short. Bears would also benefit from VIX above 11.75.

Bulls benefit from XLF remaining above 23.61 and VIX under 11.75. Bulls will prove that more upside is on the way if they boost commodities and copper. GTX would need to move above 2286 and/or JJC above 29.43; either would confirm that the stock market will explode higher.

If the banks fail as explained above, stocks will  crumble lower. XLF is currently printing at 23.76 which is 15 pennies above the critical bull-bear line in the sand.

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +56

5/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +55

5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long

5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long

5/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long

5/11/17; 11:13 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long during a sleepy week. The algo did not print any numbers until yesterday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell this morning.

The drama with financials continue; the algo identifies the banks as the most important parameter currently impacting stock market direction. The bears need to push XLF under 23.61 to verify that selling in the stock market is at hand. Price is at 23.66 only a nickel away. Bulls must push the banks higher to remain in control of the markets. If XLF drops under 23.61, and the SPX drops under 2382, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line above.

If the VIX moves above 11.95 (now at 10.60), you will see accelerated downside selling in the stock market. Bulls will be able to recover after any selloff in equities as long as they prevent the VIX from moving above 11.95. Bulls will receive upside strength if they push commodities higher. Bulls need to push GTX above 2290 now at 2214.

The beat goes on. Watch XLF 23.61 to see if it fails, if so, stocks will be trending lower. If VIX moves above 11.95, the bottom will fall out in the stock market.

5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST =

5/11/17; 11:13 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54

5/11/17; 10:23 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53

5/7/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the sideways move through SPX 2330-2400 continues for the last three months. The S&P 500 is at 2399 testing the upper boundary of this sideways channel. The algo number is comfortably 17 points above the signal line.

The bulls need stronger copper and commodities to drive the stock market higher. The bears need lower financials and higher volatility to send stocks lower. Banks are key. Watch XLF 23.58 the top parameter the algo is currently tracking. XLF is at 23.84 on the bull side which creates upside strength in the stock market. Stocks will turn quickly sour if XLF falls under 23.58.

The algo likely needs both XLF under 23.84 and VIX above 12.00 to flip short, however, if XLF comes down to the critical 23.58-ish level, and jogs above and below for a few hours, that may be enough to flip the model short once XLF would fail from 23.58.

Pay attention to XLF 23.58 and VIX 12.00 to gauge broad stock market direction to begin the new week of trading. Copper is important. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST =

5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST =

5/7/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +53

5/5/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52

5/2/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52

5/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +52

April Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-04 is Available from Amazon; COMPQ, NDX and RUT All-Time Highs; COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) Tags 6,000; Bitcoin Record Highs; Germany’s DAX 12,500; India’s BSE Sensex 30,000; Paltry 98K Jobs Report; Bank Earnings GS Disappoints; North Korea Turmoil; Article 50 Begins Brexit Process; Macron Likely Next President of France

The April Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and WorldEconomics 2017-04 is available through Amazon. The epic market action continues with more all-time stock market highs in the major indexes. The one-half of the United States that own stocks are joyous day after day while the other half of the United States struggles through eight years of high unemployment and debt. The gap between rich and poor in America is the widest in five decades. The United States is experiencing a gilded age (created by the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers); a society of the have’s and the have not’s.

April Cover Highlights;

COMPQ, NDX AND RUT ALL-TIME HIGHS

COMPQ (NASDAQ COMPOSITE) TAGS 6,000

BITCOIN RECORD HIGHS

GERMANY’S DAX 12,500

INDIA’S BSE SENSEX 30,000

PALTRY 98K JOBS REPORT

BANK EARNINGS GS DISAPPOINTS

NORTH KOREA TURMOIL

ARTICLE 50 BEGINS BREXIT PROCESS

MACRON LIKELY NEXT PRESIDENT OF FRANCE

The chronology explains the activity in global stock, bond and currency markets to key geopolitical events, central banker monetary policies and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past event including Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings, etc...

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The May 2017-05 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 6/3/17.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Bulls need higher commodities, GTX above 2306, to prove that the stock market will continue higher. Bears benefit from lower copper, lower banks and higher volatility. Bears need JJC under 29.75, or XLF under 23.56 or VIX above 12. Copper is tanking this morning and JJC should slip below 29.75, if so, that places a lid on the stock market upside.

The bears will likely also need XLF under 23.56, weaker banks, and SPX below 2386, to cause Keybot to flip to the short side. Bulls will be okay as long as they do not allow banks or volatility to turn bearish.

5/5/17; 9:00 AM EST =

5/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +52

4/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +50

4/28/17; 3:53 AM EST = +54; signal line is +50

4/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +50

4/25/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side from Monday. The bulls need either higher copper or higher commodities to keep the upside party going; JJC above 29.94 and/or GTX above 2323, respectively. The market bears need both higher volatility and lower financials to lock in downside deterioration in stocks; VIX above 12.06 and XLF under 23.61, respectively.

If volatility and banks turn bearish, and the SPX slips under 2387, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side.

If status quo remains, stocks float along sideways with an upward bias. If either volatility or banks turn bearish, one of the two, the stock market will not be able to move higher.

On the last trade, the Keybot program loses -0.8% and the actual trading loses -1.6% due to exposure oto the tech sector which is catapulting higher. The benchmark SPX is up +6.1% on the year. The algo program is dead flat on the year. The actual trading is down nearly -5% thus far this year. The ongoing market price action can be best described as choppy. Keybot exited PSQ and entered DIA earlier this week.

Copper, JJC 29.94, and the banks, XLF 23.61, will likely tell the market story to end the week. Bulls win big with higher copper and JJC above 29.94. Bears win big with the XLF dropping under 23.61.

4/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

4/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =

4/25/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +49

4/24/17; 3:07 PM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.5%)

4/24/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short

4/23/17; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +48

4/19/17; 10:23 AM EST = +40; signal line is +49

4/19/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains short

4/18/17; 11:27 AM EST = +24; signal line is +53

4/18/17; 9:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +54

4/16/17; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +55

4/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

4/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

4/11/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +56

4/11/17; 9:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +56

4/7/17; 11:30 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56

4/7/17; 11:12 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56

4/7/17; 10:43 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57

4/7/17; 10:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +58; go short 2358; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side with the algo printing only one number thus far this week in addition to the pre-scheduled number yesterday morning. Semiconductors and commodities are controlling broad stock market direction currently. Watch SOX 979.20 now at 976.67 creating bearishness in the stock market. A move above 979.20 verifies that the market bulls are staging a comeback rally.

The bulls will likely need both SOX above 979.20 and the GTX above 2331.20 to flip Keybot long. GTX is at 2327.19 currently. Both the chips and commodities are very near their critical bull-bear lines in the sand so the bulls can create a strong rally if both flip bullish. Consider the imminent turn to be in play and a likely move back to the long side for Keybot if the two parameters flip bullish.

Market bears need to keep SOX below 979.20 and GTX under  2331.20 and they will be fine. If the VIX drops below 12, the stock market will be running strongly higher.

The market bears are in charge with the algo number 29 points below the signal line but SOX and GTX will tell the story today.

4/23/17; 7:00 PM EST =

4/18/17; 11:27 AM EST = +24; signal line is +53

4/18/17; 9:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +54

4/16/17; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +55

4/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

4/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side since last Friday morning. The algo continues oscillating from side to side as the sideways chop continues in stocks. Semiconductors have bolted to the forefront as the key parameter for market direction; watch the SOX 983.05 level this week. It failed at the open today (collapsing lower to 969) and has created the bulk of the stock market weakness in the session. Bulls need to push SOX above 983.05 to stop the bleeding. Bears are firmly in the driver's seat with SOX under 983.

On the last trade, the computer model and actual trading are both flat. The SPX benchmark is up +5.3% on the year. The algo is up nearly a percent this year while the actual trading remains negative down -3% so far this year. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ.

The bears are in control with the algo number 18 points below the signal line. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning. Markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday and the Easter weekend.

4/16/17; 7:00 PM EST =

4/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =

4/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

4/11/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +56

4/11/17; 9:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +56

4/7/17; 11:30 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56

4/7/17; 11:12 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56

4/7/17; 10:43 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57

4/7/17; 10:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +58; go short 2358; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)

4/7/17; 10:04 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

4/7/17; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +59 but algorithm remains long

4/6/17; 2:52 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long

4/6/17; 1:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2363; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side after taking a wild ride the last couple days first flipping long, then whipsawing back to the short side, both occurring on Wednesday, then back to the long side this afternoon. Market bears need lower copper and retail stocks. Bulls need higher banks and commodities and lower volatility to keep the rally alive. The Jobs Report is tomorrow morning. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

The whipsaw behavior in the stock market reflects the ongoing bull-bear battle and indecision and the model may flip back to the short side tomorrow. Markets are very unstable and erratic.

Two significant events occur over the last two days. First, a whipsaw move occurs in the same day (Wednesday) which is very rare for the algo this only occurring a couple times before over the last nine years. Second, the algo prints a maximum +100 number which is extremely rare. Remember the +100 prints a few weeks ago which hints that there is something very significant occurring in the stock market. The +100 number only lasted for 26 minutes on Wednesday.

Three quick trades occur over the last couple days. The benchmark SPX index remains up +5.5% this year. The Keybot program is up a percent on the year but the actual trading remains negative down about -3% thus far this year. The whipsaw behavior triggers the algo to use single ETF's for the actual trading rather than double-leveraged ETF's. This will remain in place for about 35 days. The robot is in SPY currently.

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =

4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST =

4/6/17; 2:52 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long

4/6/17; 1:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2363; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.7%)

4/6/17; 12:49 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short

4/6/17; 12:11 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55

4/6/17; 12:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short

4/6/17; 11:41 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56

4/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +58

4/5/17; 3:54 PM EST = +40; signal line is +58

4/5/17; 3:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +60; go short 2357; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.3%)

4/5/17; 10:37 AM EST = +70; signal line is +61

4/5/17; 10:33 AM EST = +86; signal line is +61

4/5/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +61

4/5/17; 9:57 AM EST = +86; signal line is +60

4/5/17; 9:43 AM EST = +70; signal line is +60; go long 2369; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.1%)

4/5/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short

4/4/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +40; signal line is +61

3/31/17; 3:57 PM EST = +40; signal line is +62

3/31/17; 2:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +63

3/31/17; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is +64; go short 2367; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bull-bear battle continues. The algorithm prints one number thus far this week. The algo number is 6 points below the signal line. Bears will be victorious if VIX moves above 11.83 and/or RTH under 78.30. Bulls will rejoice if GTX moves above 2326 and/or XLF moves above 23.90. Thus, market bears need higher volatility and lower retail stocks while the bulls need higher commodities and banks.

The VIX sits at 11.79 essentially at the critical 11.83 bull-bear line in the sand; this 11.79-11.83 range can be considered a pivot point. As volatility goes, the broad stock market will go in the opposite direction.

If either GTX moves above 2326 or XLF above 23.90, either one would do, and the SPX prints above 2361, Keybot will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The behavior in volatility and in retail stocks will tell a lot about market direction on hump day.

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =

4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST =

4/4/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +40; signal line is +61

3/31/17; 3:57 PM EST = +40; signal line is +62

March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-03 is Available from Amazon; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA & TRAN ALL-Time Highs; SPX 2,400 and INDU (DOW) 21K; Fed Hikes Key Rate 3/15/17; London Terrorist Attack; Netherlands Election; Subprime Car Loans; Westinghouse Bankruptcy; Obamacare Trumps Trumpcare; SNAP, JILL, GOOS & PUMP IPO’s

The March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and WorldEconomics 2017-03 is available through Amazon. The epic market action continues with more new all-time stock market highs. The one-half of the United States that own stocks are joyous day after day while the other half of the United States struggles through eight years of high unemployment and debt. The gap between rich and poor in America is the widest in five decades.

March Cover Highlights;

SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA & TRAN ALL-TIME HIGHS

SPX 2,400 AND INDU (DOW) 21K

FED HIKES KEY RATE 3/15/17

LONDON TERRORIST ATTACK

NETHERLANDS ELECTION

SUBPRIME CAR LOANS

WESTINGHOUSE BANKRUPTCY

OBAMACARE TRUMPS TRUMPCARE

SNAP, JILL, GOOS & PUMP IPO’S

The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events take place in real-time. You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past event including Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-11), economic data releases, Fed meetings, etc...

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The April 2017-04 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 5/6/17.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side on Friday at SPX 2367. You saw that XLF was unable to move above the key 23.95 level so you knew that the stock market rally could not receive additional juice. Stocks slump on Friday driven lower by higher volatility and lower copper. The algo flips back to the short side out of the blue like it did late in the Tuesday session when it flipped long. The stock market is sideways choppy.

Copper and volatility are the two key parameters most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

On the last trade that only lasted a couple days, the algo program and actual trading logs marginal gains. The SPX benchmark is up +5.7% this year with the Keybot algo program up +1.8%. Actual trading continues to lag down about one percent thus far this year. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =

4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST =

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =

3/31/17; 3:57 PM EST = +40; signal line is +62

3/31/17; 2:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +63

3/31/17; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is +64; go short 2367; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.9%)

3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long

3/31/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long

3/30/17; 3:47 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68

3/30/17; 2:18 PM EST = +86; signal line is +69

3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with markets chopping sideways. The algo did not print any numbers on Wednesday. Market bulls will win big and guarantee far more upside if XLF moves above 23.93. Market bears will stop the relief rally in the stock market by pushing JJC under 30.44, RTH under 78.21 and/or VIX above 11.85. Any one of the three parameters will stop the rally. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling like a rock. If one of these three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2353, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.The beat goes on.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =

3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)

Note Added 11:30 AM EST: Stocks are rallying higher with the SPX up 8 points to 2369. The XLF is at 23.89. The algo identifies 23.95 as the key bull-bear line in the sand. So the rally means nothing unless  the banks strengthen and XLF moves above 23.95. The market bulls need another 6 pennies to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. Bears must prevent XLF from printing 23.95 with all their might. XLF moves higher now 23.91, the HOD, .........