Wednesday, May 25, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The algorithm was very active today clicking off five numbers. This two-week bull-bear Kabuki Dance for the markets is coming to a head. Today, the retail sector cracked and moved to the bear side, but intraday, back to the bull camp, then bear, then bull side as the closing bell rang.  This illustrates the bull-bear struggle currently, both sides locked, the bullish utilities, retail and volatility sectors in conflict with the bearish financials, commodities, copper and semiconductors.

Retail is on the fence but favoring the bulls.  Copper is recovering in price but still favors bears, same for commodities.  Keybot is focusing on these sectors as well as semi's.  The algorithm number is now only two points from the signal line. This means the algorithm is close to turning bullish if one of those bearish sectors would turn bullish.  If retail, RTH, falls under 109.69, now above this level at 109.80, then retail will be in the bear camp again and the indexes and the algorithm will move lower.

For tomorrow, if the market bulls can ram the SPX higher and hit a 1326 handle, it is over for the bears, the bulls will be running strong into the barbeque weekend.  If, however, the market bears can move the SPX under 1312 tomorrow, the selling will increase substantially. The SPX starts the Thursday session, tomorrow, at 1320.47. Thus, the bulls need 6 points higher to take the ball and run with it, but, the bears will be trying to push 8 points lower and run with the ball instead.  If the SPX hits the 1326 handle, Keybot will probably flip to the long side.  Time will tell.  Markets are unstable.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =
6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =
5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =
5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =
5/25/11; 2:44 PM EST = +2; signal line is +4
5/25/11; 11:53 AM EST = -14
5/25/11; 11:40 AM EST = +2; signal line is +6
5/25/11; 10:25 AM EST = -14
5/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -28
5/24/11; 3:52 PM EST = -12; signal line is +10
5/24/11; 3:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +11
5/24/11; 11:47 AM EST = -12
5/24/11; 9:45 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14
5/23/11; 3:24 PM EST = -12
5/23/11; 2:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16
5/23/11; 9:31 AM EST = -12

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