STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long after printing out eight numbers today. The algo can drift along quietly sometimes, then other times, Keybot prints numbers out so fast your head spins.  Retail, copper and commodities sectors are now bullish providing the broad market bulls street cred.

For tomorrow, Thursday, the bulls need to push the SPX about 12 points higher to touch 1231, if so the buying will accelerate, 1233 will be tested quickly and give way to futher upside. The bears have it a little easier only needing to lose 10 points tomorrow to restart the negativity. If the bears can push under 1209.35, the selling will accelerate. A move thru 1210-1230 is sideways action. Also watch RTH 104 (retail), JJC 54.6 (copper) and CRB 342 (commodities) to forecast broad market direction today. All three of these major sectors turned bullish yesterday and today we see if they hold, or not.

Markets remain unstable. August ended. September's pre-scheduled printouts are now listed below with a number scheduled for Friday morning. The algo has become very active Tuesday and Wednesday so stay tuned.

10/7/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/2/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

9/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

9/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

9/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/20/11; 9:00 AM EST =

9/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/16/11; 10:00 AM EST =

9/11/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -26; signal line -61

8/31/11; 3:31 PM EST = -26

8/31/11; 3:12 PM EST = -42

8/31/11; 10:52 AM EST = -26

8/31/11; 10:39 AM EST = -40

8/31/11; 9:57 AM EST = -26

8/31/11; 9:48 AM EST = -40

8/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56

8/30/11; 3:58 PM EST = -72; signal line -74

8/30/11; 3:28 PM EST = -56

8/30/11; 2:47 PM EST = -72; signal line -75

8/30/11; 2:39 PM EST = -56

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal line -76

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line -77

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

The algo took off to the upside and never looked back, printing four signals in the first hour of trading. The bulls are in control, once 1220 was broken to the upside, the indexes accelerated higher. Retail, RTH, and copper, JJC, are in the bull camp now boosting the indexes. Commodities, CRB jumped into the bull camp as well, but then moved back out to rejoin the bears. Continue to watch the sectors and levels previously posted. Note that the caution designation was dropped in the title, the algo number now comfortably above the signal line.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/11; 10:39 AM EST = -40

8/31/11; 9:57 AM EST = -26

8/31/11; 9:48 AM EST = -40

8/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56

8/30/11; 3:58 PM EST = -72; signal line -74

8/30/11; 3:28 PM EST = -56

8/30/11; 2:47 PM EST = -72; signal line -75

8/30/11; 2:39 PM EST = -56

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal line -76

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line -77

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and became active in the afternoon yesterday, printing four numbers before the close. Note how the algo number and signal line number are closing in on each other showing that the bulls are weakening somewhat.

The SPX:VIX remains above 35, bullish. If the ratio drops under 35, that is bearish. Retail sector is active, watch RTH 104.02, if below, like now at 103.91, the market bears are capable of pushing the indexes lower, if RTH moves above 104.02, the market bulls will run. Copper continues its run higher, watch JJC, the 54.53 level, now at 54.20. Yesterday price came up to tap 54.53 but quickly retreated. If JJC gets up and over 54.53, the broad markets will be running much higher. Lastly, commodities are heating up as well. Watch CRB 342, now about one point under.  If CRB moves above 342, the broad markets will move substantially higher. Thus, you can see the markets poised today to make the next jump to extend the recovery rally, or fail. Prices for the sectors above are on top of the algorithm's projections so today is shaping up to be a decisive day.

For the SPX today, starting at 1213, if the market bulls can run seven points higher and touch the 1220 handle, the broad markets should shoot upwards like a rocket from there. This move would probably be in concert with RTH, or JJC, or CRB, or all three, hitting the targets listed above thereby reinforcing the bullish move. From there, the liklihood would increase that the party is on into and thru the Labor Day weekend.

The market bears need to prevent a 1220 handle at all costs today, otherwise, they are in trouble. Lots of data this morning with Challenger and ADP data, then Chicago PMI, Factory Orders, as well as Oil Inventories to round out the first hour of trading, so the early action will dictate the tone of the day. The market bears need to watch for a 1195 handle.  If they can drive lower towards 1196 and stab underneath, the sellers will come into the markets in force. A move thru 1197-1219 is sideways indecision.

Volatility, VIX, remains elevated at 32.89, so continue to expect wild swings in the indexes each day. A Bradley turn date was yesterday so now is an ideal time if the market bears want to push lower. Thursday and Friday shold be bull-friendly into the holiday weekend as per seasonality. Markets remain unstable.

Watch SPX:VIX 35, RTH 104.02, JJC 54.53 and CRB 342; the algo says these levels dictate broad market direction today.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 3:58 PM EST = -72; signal line -74

8/30/11; 3:28 PM EST = -56

8/30/11; 2:47 PM EST = -72; signal line -75

8/30/11; 2:39 PM EST = -56

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal line -76

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line -77

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant motors along on the long side. The algo is now monitoring RTH 103.94, so continue watching that today. Below, as it is now, and the market bulls are running out of gas.The bulls can run the indexes higher if they get above 103.94.

Copper is coming up strongly and now Keybot is focusing on that sector as well. Use JJC as a guide, now with a 54 handle, the market bulls need to see 54.50 which will cause the market bulls to run much higher. JJC attained 54.31, only 19 cents away, then, as the Consumer Confidence data was just released, markets fell out of bed, and the JJC has now fallen to 54.02.

Another sector the algo is now monitoring is commodites.  Watch the CRB 341.77 level; CRB is now hanging out just under 338, only less than four points away. If CRB moves up and over 342, the market bulls will extend the rally much further.

Thus, markets are meandering now. SPX:VIX remains over 35 favoring bulls, keep an eye on it. Watch RTH 103.94, but as this commentary was written, RTH is now under 103, thus, retail will not provide the leadership needed to drive indexes higher. Watch JJC 54.5. Watch CRB 342. The bulls are languishing now since retail, copper and commodities are not providing the leadership needed, but, bulls are not in trouble unless you see the SPX:VIX ratio lose 35.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal line -76

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line -77

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant motors along on the long side. The bulls have the upper hand but the markets remain unstable. The big thrust came at the open when the SPX:VIX ratio moved above 35; that announced the market launch for the indexes. Continue to watch the 35 level for the ratio in the days ahead.

The retail sector, RTH, sees fishy action into the close. The algo is monitoring RTH 104.04. At the close in real time, the print was higher, the last three minutes of trading saw the RTH move above this critical level. Then, as further settlement occurred after the bell, the 'final-final' print dropped back below the quant's number of 104.04. Thus, at the opening bell tomorrow, watch to see if RTH can move above 104.04, if so, the broad market rally has further legs, if not, then the bulls are running out of steam.

For the SPX tomorrow, Tuesday, since price closed near the highs, the market bulls have the wind at their backs. All the bears need to see is green futures and that will indicate that the upside party remains in full swing, pop another cork. For the market bears to stop this six day rally, they need to push under the 1178 handle. If the bears can touch an 1177 handle, the selling will pick up quickly in force and the SPX will drop additional handles from there. The 1179-1209 range is sideways action with no resolution. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line -77

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the new trading week. Sunday's pre-scheduled number results in no change as the algo idles on the weekend. The market bulls staged a recovery rally last week. The market bears pushed hard last Friday morning and needed UTIL to lose the 414.5-ish level, which it did for only a few seconds, but once UTIL popped to show non-failure, the indexes catapulted higher as would be expected. If you are bearish, you want to see UTIL 414.59 fail during the new week. UTIL starts at 423.68, comfortably nine points higher, so this appears unlikely at this juncture, but, serious negative news out of Europe could be a catalyst.

With UTIL staying above 414.5-ish, the broad market bulls will continue along with the recovery rally. A further confirmation of the recovery rally will occur if the SPX:VIX ratio, now at 33.07, moves above 35. During the Friday session, the ratio moved a slight bit above 34, within a point of this confirmation, but gave up some ground into the close. Watch this ratio as a signal this week, below 35 and the market bears are still in the game. If the ratio moves above 35, the market bulls are going to run much higher and the recovery rally will be in full swing.

A key sector to watch this week is retail, RTH, now at 102.24. If RTH moves above 104, this also serves as further confirmation that the bulls will run the indexes higher. Thus, the bulls need to root for SPX:VIX 35 and RTH 104 while the bears root for UTIL 414.5.

For the SPX on Monday, starting at 1176.80, the market bulls need to get up and over 1181, if so, the indexes will rock higher in quick order. For the market bears, they have a formidable task ahead, probably only achievable on serious bad news out of Europe. Bears need to lose the 1136 handle, 40 points lower, to bring in strong selling and start a downward slide in the indexes again.  A move thru 1137-1180 is sideways action for the markets.

Thus, the bulls have the upper hand as the week begins. The bears best chance to drive markets lower will occur early in the week since markets tend to be bullish in front of a three day holiday weekend.  Thus, Thursday and Friday of this coming week would be expected to be buoyant based on seasonality. EOM occurs on Wednesday and Keybot clicks off three pre-scheduled numbers this week.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line -77

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Lots of wild moves this past week but the algo simply idled along on the bullish side after it flipped long on Tuesday. In the Friday session, the UTIL 50 week MA held which told you that the early market selling was a non-event. A pre-scheduled number clicks off tomorrow so at that time we can take a look at the new week ahead.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite all the early excitement. The algo printed the pre-scheduled number at 10 AM resulting in no change. Interestingly, as you are a follower of Keybot, you are aware of the importance of the UTIL 50 week MA 'trap door' for equities markets. The utes lost that 50 week MA level, at 414.55, for only a few seconds, at 10:06 AM, and then jumped higher taking the broad markets higher.

The SPX lost the 1155.47 level at the open so a flush was expected, and occurred. The SPX lost 10 points at 10 AM as Chairman Bernanke took the podium, but since the utes hung in there, the bulls ran the indexes higher and 1155.47 was regained. Watch UTIL 414.55 and SPX 1155.47 today, that is all you need to know to gauge broad market direction. The algo remains long.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish, despite the down day in the markets. The algo idled along on the long side today and did not print out any numbers, remaining long for 2 1/2 days now. Utilities remain elevated so the down move in the indexes today does not appear to be any significant event, at least not yet.

The market bears needed to push under 1156.30 to make todays selling a significant event and to open the door to lower numbers, they did not. At 1 PM, the bears pushed under 1156.30 for a few seconds but the SPX quickly recovered, then as markets sold off at the close, at 3:45 PM, the bears pushed hard again but could not even pierce the 1156.30 level. These two tests actually favor the bullish case since the tests were successful and markets did not collapse. The wild card is Chairman Bernanke's speech set for 10 AM tomorrow. Keybot will also click off a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow.

For the SPX tomorrow, the market bears need to push four points lower to accelerate the selling. They failed to pull it off today, but if the bears drop the SPX under 1155.47, which is also the key 200 week MA support area at 1152-1154, then the sellers will enter in force and you will see a strong bout of selling much stronger than today. The market bulls have a formidable task ahead for tomorrow, since the indexes popped strongly after todays open. The bulls need to push the SPX above 1190.68, if so, the buyers will step in and resume the recovery rally with strong accelerated buying. A move thru 1156-1189 is sideways action chewing up bulls and bears alike.

Tomorrow morning will be a wild first half hour of trading so get some rest tonight. The GDP number will set the tone for the open, then Consumer Sentiment will sway markets at 9:55 AM, followed quickly by Chairman Bernanke's speech minutes later. Keybot the Quant is long going into the Friday session. Volatility remains elevated accounting for the triple digit moves in the Dow Industrials each day. Markets remain unstable.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long for a day and one-half so far, so a whipsaw has not occurred, but let's let today play out first to be sure. The algo idled along on the long side yesterday without printing any numbers. The utilities are rockin' to the upside so any fear of UTIL losing the 50 week MA now appears unlikely. In fact, UTIL, now at 431.28, is only six points away from attaining the 436.91 level which would be viewed as very bullish for the broad markets. Considering the strong sell off during August, however, UTIL may not have the oomph to get there, time will tell. As time moves forward, do not forget the importance of the UTIL 50 week MA 'trap door'.

Watch the retail sector, RTH, now at 102.32.  Use the 104 level as a gauge for broad market direction over the next couple days. If the 104 level is achieved this is very broad market bullish and indicates that the recovery rally has legs. If not, then the market bears remain in the game and broad market pressure can return at anytime.

For the SPX today, the market bulls have the advantage, only needing to move a point higher to cross above 1178.56 and the buyers will enter in force with several more handles higher ticking off in short order. For the market bears, they need to push over 20 points lower today to drop below 1156. If an 1155 handle is touched, the markets will sell off large. A move thru 1157-1177 is sideways action representing consolidation of the recent gains.

The recovery rally continues but there is no evidence as yet that the rally has any staying power. Volatility remains elevated, markets remain unstable. Stay on guard.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side now from SPX 1146. The algo is always susceptible to a whipsaw after turning so stay on guard today and tomorrow to see if the long side holds. The key is the utes today. Very simply, if the 50 week MA holds for UTIL, any sell off this morning will be a non-event and the bulls should continue the rally. UTIL is now 423.21, nine points above the 50 week MA at 414.58, so watch this after the bell rings.

For the SPX today, the bulls have the wind at their back since the indexes closed at the highs yesterday. Even a penny on the green side with futures will catapult the indexes higher by several handles today. But, alas, at this writing, the futures are down about 8 or 9 for the spoo's. The bears have a formidable task ahead today, needing to retrace the entire run yesterday down to SPX 1123 if they want to get the negativity ball rolling again. A move thru 1124-1161 today is sideways stuff, a rest period after yesterday's huge run-up.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

8/23/11; 10:02 AM EST = -72; signal line is -78 but algorithm says stay short

SPX Daily Chart Shows Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Keybot flips to the long side at SPX 1146 today. The short side run that caught the big bear down move from SPX 1324 is over, for now. Stay on guard for any potential whipsaw.  The chart shows the algo's turn calls over the last three months.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 1146 at 11:51 AM today. The algo rode the downside after flipping short from SPX 1324 on 7/11/11; that run is over.  The algo gained +13% in that six week period; the actual percentage return via SDS was +26% in the same period. The robot's are smarter than the human's, they trade without emotion.

Utiliites, UTIL, held that 414.4-ish trap door level the last couple days so it looks like the market bulls want to finally run again. As always, after Keybot turns, stay on guard for a potential whipsaw, especially now, after such an epic run, and considering how jumpy the markets remain. Keybot the Quant will receive some fresh oil tonight, great job by a great algo.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

8/23/11; 10:02 AM EST = -72; signal line is -78 but algorithm says stay short

8/23/11; 9:54 AM EST = -88

8/22/11; 12:43 PM EST = -72; signal line is -78 but algorithm says stay short

8/22/11; 12:33 PM EST = -88

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line is -77 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:52 AM EST = -72; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:08 AM EST = -56; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 10:31 AM EST = -72; signal line is -74 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 9:59 AM EST = -56; signal line is -73 but algorithm says stay short

8/16/11; 9:00 AM EST = -72; signal line is -72

8/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -72; signal line -70

8/14/11; 7:00 PM EST = -88; signal line -68

8/12/11; 2:11 PM EST = -88

8/12/11; 1:48 PM EST = -72; signal line is -62

8/12/11; 12:31 PM EST = -88

8/12/11; 11:43 AM EST = -72; signal line is -57

8/12/11; 10:00 AM EST = -88

8/12/11: 9:59 AM EST = -88

8/12/11: 9:30 AM EST = -72; signal line is -47

8/11/11: 3:58 PM EST = -88

8/11/11: 3:31 PM EST = -72; signal line is -39

8/8/11: 9:30 AM EST = -88

8/7/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line is -32

8/5/11; 12:44 PM EST = -72

8/5/11; 9:53 AM EST = -88

8/5/11; 9:32 AM EST = -72; signal line is -24

8/5/11; 9:00 AM EST = -88

8/4/11; 3:29 PM EST = -88

8/4/11; 2:34 PM EST = -72

8/4/11; 2:25 PM EST = -88

8/4/11; 11:45 AM EST = -72

8/4/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56

8/3/11; 1:15 PM EST = -40

8/3/11; 12:28 PM EST = -56

8/2/11; 11:09 AM EST = -40

7/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -26; signal line is +9

7/29/11; 10:00 AM EST = -26

7/28/11; 3:21 PM EST = -26

7/28/11; 3:17 PM EST = -10

7/28/11; 10:05 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17

7/28/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10

7/27/11; 3:46 PM EST = -26

7/27/11; 2:27 PM EST = -12

7/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +24

7/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +24

7/24/11; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm says stay short

7/22/11; 11:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm says stay short

7/22/11; 9:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24

7/21/11; 12:39 PM EST = +34; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short

7/21/11; 9:49 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20

7/19/11; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19

7/18/11; 3:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17

7/18/11; 10:06 AM EST = -10

7/17/11; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line +15

7/15/11; 10:00 AM EST = +4

7/11/11; 10:34 AM EST = +4; signal line is +12; go short 1324; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+5.3%)(Keybot this trade=+3.0%; Keybot for 2011=+7.8%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+3.7%; Actual for 2011=+2.8)

7/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +18; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

High drama continues. UTIL lost the 414.4-ish level twice so far today, the last time minutes ago, it opened the trap door for the broad markets for eight minutes but the market bulls managed to close the trap door just like yesterday morning. UTIL then rocket launched at 10 AM to tag 417 in a few minutes, and is now languishing again with a 415 handle. This accounts for four stabs by UTIL to try and pierce its 50 week MA but each time support holds. This is a feather in the bull's cap. The market bulls may finally be building a base. Continue to watch UTIL 414.4-ish.

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is chomping at the bit to go long now. If the SPX can climb a few more handles towards 1145, Keybot will more than likely flip to the long side. Stay tuned.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/23/11; 10:02 AM EST = -72; signal line is -78 but algorithm says stay short

8/23/11; 9:54 AM EST = -88

8/22/11; 12:43 PM EST = -72; signal line is -78 but algorithm says stay short

8/22/11; 12:33 PM EST = -88

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line is -77 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot wants to flip long but still requires certain algo rules to fall into place; we will see what today holds. The algo probably wants to see about 20 spoo's upside before flipping long and this morning's futures, although up, are not up that far as yet. Watch the utes today, they are key; UTIL begins at 415.11.  If 414.42 is lost, the markets will tumble large. If 414.42 is defended, the broad markets will continue along developing a recovery rally.

For the SPX today, the market bulls need to move up to touch 1145 to pull out of the duldrums. That will signal the all clear for buyers to jump in and the SPX will move up towards 1155 in short order. For the bears, a couple points lower is all that is needed to usher in accelerated selling. If 1121 is lost and an 1120 handle is touched, the bottom will fall out for and the indexes will drop quickly, the SPX moving down towards 1101. A move thru 1122-1144 today is sideways indecision.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/22/11; 12:43 PM EST = -72; signal line is -78 but algorithm says stay short

8/22/11; 12:33 PM EST = -88

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line is -77 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:52 AM EST = -72; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

The markets were staring into the abyss an hour ago but have since recovered. First of all, as you were watching the SPX for an 1121 handle, bingo, there it was at 11:55 AM. Seconds later it vanished. Losing that level opens up a flood of selling, the door was open and the bulls luckily shut it quickly to stop an immediate slide lower.

At 12:33 PM, the utes, UTIL, collapsed thru the 50 week MA, opening the trap door for the equites markets. Typically, within five to 20 minutes, the broad markets will collapse after this critical indicator is lost. Ten minutes later the UTIL regained the 50 week MA and put on as much distance upwards as it could, stopping a huge downside selling event today by minutes. Extremely exciting action.

Where does that leave the markets? The bulls stopped an all out collapse a short time ago by the skin of their teeth. Thus, watch to see if the bulls can gather additional mojo. Keybot the Quant wants to turn to the long side but algo rules continue to hold it back. The algo wants to see about 10 or 15 more spoo points to the upside today for it to reverse to the long side.

Keep watching for an SPX 1121 handle today, if it is touched, and especially with the UTIL losing 414.45, will result in a massive market sell off. The market bulls fought back today and are hanging in there. UTIL 414.45 provides today's answer, simply watch that into the close and it will tell you market direction. Above 414.45 and the broad markets will float sideways to sideways up; a move under 414.45 and a huge selling event will occur. At this writing UTIL is printing 415.09.  Hang on.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/22/11; 12:43 PM EST = -72; signal line is -78 but algorithm says stay short

8/22/11; 12:33 PM EST = -88

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line is -77 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:52 AM EST = -72; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the week but the algo is itching to go long. Note that the algo number is above the signal line for three days now so this means Keybot should flip to the long side, but, other algo rules must be satisfied, and these programming rules are not ready to allow Keybot to go long. That may change early this week.

The key to the markets is watching the utes, UTIL, now at 417. Watch 414 and 437. Above 437 confirms a huge recovery rally. A move thru 414-437 this week favors sideways markets with a move towards a recovery rally. A failure of 414 represents a trap door, the broad markets will collapse. If the markets regain their footing early this week, watch the SPX:VIX ratio, now at 26, if this moves above 35, this will correspond to a huge up day for the indexes as well as a confirmation of a recovery rally in place.

For the SPX, starting at 1124, a move above 1155 may be the ticket for Keybot to move to the long side, at 30 points higher, a formidable task. If 1155 is hit, the buying will substantially increase in the markets and the SPX will jump higher to test 1160 quickly.  The market bears have the wind at their back since the markets closed near the lows on Friday.  If the market bears simply push a couple points lower, to lose that 1122 handle and touch an 1121 handle, the sellers will jump in fast, accelerating the move down in short order, more than likely pushing down to test that 1101 low from about eight days ago. A move thru 1123-1153 is sideways slop.

Stay alert, Keybot the Quant wants to go long but the robot is not convinced yet. Perhaps Monday or Tuesday will provide the clarity. One pre-scheduled number will print this week on Friday morning.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line is -77 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:52 AM EST = -72; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo was within seconds of flipping to the long side last week but the program held it back, maintaining the short side.  After Thursday and Friday's action, it was obvious why the robot stayed short. The utes, UTIL, held the 414 level which is actually encouraging for the market bulls. The UTIL 414 level represents a trap door for the equities markets. If UTIL 414 fails, now at 416.67 to start the new week, the markets will go into free fall. For now, after two tests towards this support level, the utes are holding. This UTIL 414 level is the most important thing to watch as Monday kicks off.

The Sunday pre-scheduled number clicks off tomorrow so at that point we can set up the new week of trading.  Note that Keybot idled along on the short side during the back half of the week, without printing any numbers from noon Wednesday on. The algo number is above the signal line (-72 is higher than -75 if you have trouble understanding negative numbers) so Keybot wants to flip long but other programming rules contininue to hold it back. Markets remain unstable.

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/11; 11:52 AM EST = -72; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:08 AM EST = -56; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 10:31 AM EST = -72; signal line is -74 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 9:59 AM EST = -56; signal line is -73 but algorithm says stay short

8/16/11; 9:00 AM EST = -72; signal line is -72

8/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -72; signal line -70

8/14/11; 7:00 PM EST = -88; signal line -68

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Uneventful day for Keybot as the algo idled along without printing any numbers today, despite the large drop in the indexes.  Keybot remains short. The SPX:VIX ratio dropped under 35 indicating that the bears are back in business. Market bears have the advantage as long as the ratio stays under 35, once the ratio regains the 35 level, however, the bulls will run again.

The utilities, UTIL, have two key levels to watch, 414.00 and 429.81. Although markets tumbled today, UTIL did not fall under 414, thus, the sell off may be short-lived. Consider 414 a trap door and if UTIL loses that level, the broad markets will go into free fall. Today 414 held nicely, price did not even come close to threatening a failure. UTIL not losing 414 is constructive towards markets placing a bottom.

For the SPX tomorrow, starting at 1141, the market bears need to push down below 1131 if they want to keep the bear party alive. If 1131 is lost tomorrow and a 1130 handle is touched, the sellers will come into the market in force, the indexes will drive lower in short order and the day will become ugly.  The market bulls have a formidable task ahead. If the bulls want to stop the bleeding, they must touch 1190 tomorrow, 50 points higher, so a formidable task indeed. Perhaps the bulls simply hope for a sideways day thru 1132-1188. Market instability remains, stay on guard.

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/11; 11:52 AM EST = -72; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:08 AM EST = -56; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 10:31 AM EST = -72; signal line is -74 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 9:59 AM EST = -56; signal line is -73 but algorithm says stay short

8/16/11; 9:00 AM EST = -72; signal line is -72

8/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -72; signal line -70

8/14/11; 7:00 PM EST = -88; signal line -68

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant clicked off an additional number before lunch and then idled along the rest of the session.  The algo remains short but has now printed four numbers in a row wanting to flip to the long side.  Other algo rules are holding Keybot back from triggering the move to the long side.  If the SPX hits 1208.47 tomorrow there is a high liklihood that Keybot will flip long.  Barring that, the algo will probably idle along sideways as the week continues.

Utilities, UTIL, danced above and below 429.81 today, closing below at 427.57. Thus, the bears are in control of the broad markets unless the bulls muster the strength to push UTIL above 429.81 anytime during the remainder of the week.

For the SPX in the Thursday session, market bulls need to drive about 14 points higher to get above 1208.47 and the buying will accelerate with the recovery rally taking off to the upside again. The market bears need to push under 1184.36, only about nine points lower, and the selling will accelerate in force, the indexes will lose several more handles quickly. A move thru 1185-1203 is sideways slop and the bull-bear standoff will continue.

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/11; 11:52 AM EST = -72; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 11:08 AM EST = -56; signal line is -75 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 10:31 AM EST = -72; signal line is -74 but algorithm says stay short

8/17/11; 9:59 AM EST = -56; signal line is -73 but algorithm says stay short

8/16/11; 9:00 AM EST = -72; signal line is -72

8/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -72; signal line -70

8/14/11; 7:00 PM EST = -88; signal line -68