Thursday, August 11, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant idles along on the short side. The algo has not printed any numbers this week since the Monday opening bell. A pre-scheduled number will click off at 10 AM tomorrow. For hints of a sustained recovery broad market bounce, watch the SPX:VIX ratio, now at 26. If the ratio moves above 35, that will signal a huge up day for the indexes and provide the bulls with encouragement.

The utilities, since they cracked last to signal the markets going off the cliff last Thursday, require close watching to gauge if a recovery rally is at hand.  Watch UTIL, now at 397, if the utes move above 413, that will signal that the bulls are gathering a healthy head of steam. If UTIL cannot attain the 413 level, then more sideways to sideways down behavior will occur in the broad markets.

For the SPX in Thursday's session, the bears only need to push two points lower to move under 1118. If the 1117 handle is touched, the sellers will enter in force, driving the SPX down to test 1112, then perhaps 1101, to possibly verify a temporary bottom for the markets.  The bulls have to do heavy lifting today and push the SPX up to 1172 if they expect bullish enthusiasm to enter the broad markets.  Accelerated buying will occur if 1172 is touched today.

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/11; 9:00 AM EST =
8/14/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/12/11; 10:00 AM EST =
8/8/11: 9:30 AM EST = -88
8/7/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line is -32

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