Thursday, August 25, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish, despite the down day in the markets. The algo idled along on the long side today and did not print out any numbers, remaining long for 2 1/2 days now. Utilities remain elevated so the down move in the indexes today does not appear to be any significant event, at least not yet.

The market bears needed to push under 1156.30 to make todays selling a significant event and to open the door to lower numbers, they did not. At 1 PM, the bears pushed under 1156.30 for a few seconds but the SPX quickly recovered, then as markets sold off at the close, at 3:45 PM, the bears pushed hard again but could not even pierce the 1156.30 level. These two tests actually favor the bullish case since the tests were successful and markets did not collapse. The wild card is Chairman Bernanke's speech set for 10 AM tomorrow. Keybot will also click off a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow.

For the SPX tomorrow, the market bears need to push four points lower to accelerate the selling. They failed to pull it off today, but if the bears drop the SPX under 1155.47, which is also the key 200 week MA support area at 1152-1154, then the sellers will enter in force and you will see a strong bout of selling much stronger than today. The market bulls have a formidable task ahead for tomorrow, since the indexes popped strongly after todays open. The bulls need to push the SPX above 1190.68, if so, the buyers will step in and resume the recovery rally with strong accelerated buying. A move thru 1156-1189 is sideways action chewing up bulls and bears alike.

Tomorrow morning will be a wild first half hour of trading so get some rest tonight. The GDP number will set the tone for the open, then Consumer Sentiment will sway markets at 9:55 AM, followed quickly by Chairman Bernanke's speech minutes later. Keybot the Quant is long going into the Friday session. Volatility remains elevated accounting for the triple digit moves in the Dow Industrials each day. Markets remain unstable.

9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =
8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

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