Tuesday, August 16, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant idled along all day without printing any numbers. The SPX moved between 1180 and 1204, hence, sideways slop.  Bulls could not push above 1204 and bears could not push under 1179, so neither side won. The utilities, UTIL, remained above 414, bullish, but below 429.81, bearish. Whichever way UTIL breaks out of the 414-429 area is the way the broad markets will be breaking.

SPX:VIX ratio remains above 35 which favors bulls.  If the ratio moves below 35, the market bears are regaining control.  If the ratio stays above 35, bulls have the recovery rally in place.

For the SPX in the Wednesday session, if the market bulls can move price above 1204, the buyers will have a party, and the recovery rally will continue along higher in quick order. If the market bears can move price under 1180.50, the bears are regaining control and will accelerate the broad markets lower.  A move thru 1181-1203 is sideways slop and the bull-bear standoff continues.

The algo is on the verge of flipping long but not yet. UTIL moving above 429.81 would be a major bullish signal. Stay on guard for a potential trend change. Keybot remains short from 7/11/11.

8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =
8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/11; 9:00 AM EST = -72; signal line is -72
8/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -72; signal line -70
8/14/11; 7:00 PM EST = -88; signal line -68

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