STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The Apple Rally last week saved the day and placed the bulls firmly in the drivers seat. The strength in utilities is very bullish.  UTIL moved from 449 to 470 in 12 days, 4.5%.  Bulls remain in control if utes stay flat or move higher. Even if the broad markets sell off, if utes remain elevated the selloff would be short-lived. As long as UTIL stays above the 450-455 zone for the next couple months the bulls are in good shape. Any price move down into and thru this zone spells trouble for markets.

Copper also ran higher, watch JJC 48.25, now at 48.98 in the bull camp. Keybot is scanning copper, semi's and commodities closely ahead of the new week of trading.  SOX is in the bear camp but only by three points.  Watch SOX 418.75, now at 415.91.  Watch CRB 311, now at 306. Bears need to drive JJC lower to send the broad indexes lower. Bulls need to move either SOX or CRB or both higher and the broad indexes will continue running higher. JJC and CRB are greatly affected by the dollar. The weak dollar last week helped boost copper back into the bull camp.  This week we see if there is strength to send the CRB higher, or not.

For the SPX, starting at 1403 strong support, the bulls need four points to touch 1407, the upside will accelerate to likely test 1413 R.  Watch the starting April number of 1408.47 since the EOM occurs at 4 PM EST Monday and this determines whether the markets finish with a positive, or negative, month.  The bears need to push downwards to 1397, if so, the downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1398-1405 is sideways action.  Markets are very unstable and erratic.  JJC, CRB and JJC will dictate broad market direction. 

5/6/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/4/12; 9:00 AM EST =

4/30/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line 24

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line 22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Last week the markets were saved by the Apple Rally. Semiconductors and copper remain a key focus of the algorithm right now as it idles thru the weekend. Once the Sunday print occurs tomorrow, the sectors and levels of interest can be identified in detail for the new trading week ahead. Market bulls need a weaker dollar and higher semi's. Bears need a stronger dollar and weaker copper. Markets remain extremely unstable currently.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line 22

4/26/12; 10:33 AM EST = +46; signal line 21

4/25/12; 11:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21; go long 1387; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +2.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.1%; Actual for 2012 = +3.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled number clicks off minutes ago resulting in a one point change to the signal line.  Copper, JJC, remains elevated helping the bulls.  But note that the semiconductors, SOX, were negative from the open and this is the sector the market bulls need to send markets higher.  Thus, the markets are at a standoff and either higher semi's will take the markets higher, or, lower copper will take the markets lower. Without either one flipping sides, the markets will stumble along sideways. The dollar is weaker this morning helping copper remain buoyant. Markets are very unstable currently. Also note how the VIX, volatility, is up today.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line 22

4/26/12; 10:33 AM EST = +46; signal line 21

4/25/12; 11:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21; go long 1387; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +2.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.1%; Actual for 2012 = +3.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  Copper jumped over to the bull side today which sent markets higher.  The broad indexes are now most affected by copper, JJC, and semiconductors, SOX.  JJC is bullish and SOX is bearish.  Watch JJC 48.10 and SOX 418.50. Bulls will soldify an extended upside run ahead if SOX punches up thru 418.50.  Bears will stop the upward move and reverse markets lower if JJC drops back under 48.10. Markets move sideways if status quo is in place with JJC over 48.10 and SOX under 318.50.

For the SPX on Friday starting a couple pennies shy of 1400, over the critical 1399 resistance, the bulls need to touch 1402, two points away, and the upside bull party will continue.  The bears need to push under 1387.25, about 12 points lower, and the downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1389-1401 is sideways action.  Markets are highly unstable and traders are uber complacent. This is a warning signal for the days and weeks ahead and very consistent with behavior at market tops.  Stay alert and cautious. A pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM so the trading action can be updated at that time.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/26/12; 10:33 AM EST = +46; signal line 21

4/25/12; 11:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21; go long 1387; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +2.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.1%; Actual for 2012 = +3.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper, JJC, popped above 48.10 this morning and is providing the bull fuel.  Continue watching the sectors previously mentioned.  Keep an eye  on SOX 418.25, now about three points under. A move above will create a sustainable bullish market move higher.  The market bears are trying to prevent the SOX from moving higher while pushing the JJC lower. The SPX received its one green point today so this opened up the markets for an upside acceleration, which it now received with a test of 1399 resistance ongoing as this is typed. Markets remain extremely unstable currently.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/26/12; 10:33 AM EST = +46; signal line 21

4/25/12; 11:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21; go long 1387; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +2.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.1%; Actual for 2012 = +3.0%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns Bullish from 4/25/12

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
4/25/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:29 AM EST at SPX 1387; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.3%; Keybot algo is up 2.0%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.0%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw tomorrow or Friday.
4/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1362; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.3%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.1%.
4/12/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:30 PM EST at SPX 1384; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.0%; Keybot algo is up 5.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.7%.
3/28/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:33 AM EST at SPX 1409, whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot algo is up 3.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.2%.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side. The gap up occurred this morning which holds the algo back for an hour and one-half.  Shortly thereafter the quant went long.  The last trade results in a whipsaw from Monday's short move with the algorithm program and actual trading both giving up about two percent.  The Benchmark SPX is up 10.3% for the year thus far. RTH is well above 40.96, XLF above 15.10 and VIX well below 18.50 so the bulls were cruising all day long.

As always, just like Monday's turn, stay alert for a whipsaw.  It would not be surprising to see Keybot flip back to the short side tomorrow or Friday.  The printout shows how the algo number and signal line number are flip-flopping every few hours so it is doubtful that the wrestling match is over.  Monitor RTH, XLF and VIX as listed above.  In addition, now that the bulls want to roll higher, the only way extended upside can occur is if either copper, commodities or semiconductors join the bull camp. Watch JJC 48.10, CRB 311 and SOX 417. The upside for the broad indexes will be limited unless one of these three sectors give way.

For the SPX for Thursday, starting at 1391, the bulls only need to see one green point in the futures and a further upside acceleration will occur for the broad indexes, with a likely a test of 1399, then perhaps the psychological 1400.  The bears will stop the upside momo if they keep the futures red overnight to prevent the bullish acceleration, and then try to return either retail, financials or volatilty to the bear side. A move thru SPX 1374-1390 is sideways action. Markets remain unstable. Caution is required.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/25/12; 11:29 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21; go long 1387; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +2.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.1%; Actual for 2012 = +3.0%)

4/24/12; 2:57 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

4/24/12; 2:09 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20

4/24/12; 2:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is +20

4/24/12; 1:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20

4/24/12; 10:57 AM EST = +30; signal line is +18 but algorithm says stay short

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +17

4/24/12; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +15 but the algorithm says stay short

4/23/12; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +14; go short 1362; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short but the algo wants to flip to the long side. Other programming rules are holding the algo back. The SPX 1376 level is important for Wednesday since Keybot will likely flip back to the long side if the 1376 or higher occurs.

RTH 40.96, XLF 15.10 and VIX 18.50 will be important again for Wednesday. All three are bullish now affecting the markets positively. For the SPX starting at 1372, less than four green points are needed to ignite an upside acceleration.  If 1376 is touched the bulls will run the markets higher.  The bears need to regain one of the three sectors listed above or prevent the 1376 from occurring. If the bears can push under the 1367 handle the downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1368-1375 is sideways action.  Considering AAPL's run up in the after hours Tuesday evening, the market bulls may want to run for a few days.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/24/12; 2:57 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short

4/24/12; 2:09 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20

4/24/12; 2:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is +20

4/24/12; 1:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20

4/24/12; 10:57 AM EST = +30; signal line is +18 but algorithm says stay short

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +17

Note Added 4/25/12 at 4:31 AM EST:  Futures are running higher, the S&P's are up about 10 or 11 handles currently. The algorithm has several timers and if a gap up occurs at the open, which is likely, the algo will be held back from jumping to the long side right away. Under this scenario the time between 10:50 AM and 11:05 AM will be particularly important where the quant will likely decide to go long.  Without a gap up the quant will probably flip long after the open. Thus, it may require a couple hours this morning to note the true market reaction from the AAPL earnings.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The VIX is under 18.50, XLF is over 15.10 and RTH is above 41.00, all three in the bull camp.  Keybot wants to move back to the long side but the internal programming rules continue to hold it back.  The quant is watching the 1379 level closely. If the market bulls move up thru 1379 Keybot will likely flip long.  If the market bears keep the SPX under 1379 for the remainder of the day Keybot will likely remain short thru the close. Keep watching the three sectors listed above.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/24/12; 10:57 AM EST = +30; signal line is +18 but algorithm says stay short

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +17

4/24/12; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +15 but the algorithm says stay short

4/23/12; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +14; go short 1362; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the markets recover today. The financials, XLF, moved back above 15.10 which provides bull fuel.  The VIX is testing the 18.50 area right now, above and it helps bears, a drop under 18.50 will send markets higher.  The SPX is printing 1375 now moving closer to the 1379 handle that would trigger the upside.  The movement of the VIX above or below 18.50 will tell a lot over the coming minutes.  Note how the algo number and signal line are on top of each other with bulls and bears continuing to fight over market control. Also note how the RTH came down to 41.02, almost failing the 41 level which would benefit the market bears, but bounced and is now printing 41.22.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +17

4/24/12; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +15 but the algorithm says stay short

4/23/12; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +14; go short 1362; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side going into the Tuesday session. The algo flipped to the bear side shortly after yesterday's open. Watch XLF 15.10 (now bearish at 15.08 but only by two cents), VIX 18.50 (now bearish at 18.97), RTH 41.00 (now bullish at 41.25) and SPX:VIX ratio 68 (now bullish at 72.06).   Any juxstaposition of these four characters will push the broad indexes in that respective direction.  The futures are up favoring a recovery bounce at the open so the RTH and VIX require close watching.

Even with the bearish sectors above turning back to the bull side, the more important fight will be at the SPX 1379-1380 level with the 50-day MA at 1379.80.  If the bulls push higher and a 1379 prints, the broad indexes should accelerate upwards slicing up thru the 50-day MA and moving higher.  The 1379-1380 resistance level is very important today and a move above will likely cause Keybot to flip back to the long side.  The SPX begins the day at 1367. The bears need to drop under 1359 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1360-1377 is sideways action today.

A pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/23/12; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +14; go short 1362; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.1%)

4/23/12; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +13 but the algorithm says stay long

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +12

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns Bearish from 4/23/12

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
4/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1362; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.3%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.1%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw to occur today or tomorrow.
4/12/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:30 PM EST at SPX 1384; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.0%; Keybot algo is up 5.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.7%.
3/28/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:33 AM EST at SPX 1409, whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot algo is up 3.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.2%.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%.
1/1/12: The new year begins. For 2011, the SPX Benchmark is flat finishing up 0%; Keybot algo finished the year up 33%; Keybot actual trading ended the year up 37%. Keybot begins 2012 remaining long. The new year begins at SPX 1258.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1362. This results in a 1.6% give-back for the algorithm program and for the actual trade execution for the latest trade.  Lower financials and higher volatility are reinforcing the bearishness today.  Watch RTH 41. If the market bears can push under 41 this will seal a sustainable down move ahead. The bulls need to prevent RTH 41 from occurring while at the same time trying to raise XLF back above 15.10.  The SPX:VIX ratio is under 68, albeit barely, which reinforces the bears. Tech is leading the market downside today which is also bearish.

Watch for a whipsaw today or tomorrow. A whipsaw would manifest itself thru the XLF and VIX action.  Market bears are driving the bus now. Markets remain very unstable. Continued caution is warranted. 

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/23/12; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +14; go short 1362; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.1%)

4/23/12; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +13 but the algorithm says stay long

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +12

4/19/12; 3:03 PM EST = +30; signal line is +11

4/19/12; 2:17 PM EST = +16; signal line is +10

4/19/12; 11:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +10

4/19/12; 10:31 AM EST = +46; signal line is +10

4/18/12; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +9

4/18/12; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +9

4/18/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +9

4/17/12; 9:50 AM EST = +46; signal line is +9

4/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +8

4/17/12; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

4/16/12; 9:57 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

4/16/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +8

4/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = 0; signal line is +8 but algorithm says stay long

4/13/12; 3:58 PM EST = 0; signal line is +9 but algorithm says stay long

4/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +11

4/13/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14; signal line is +12

4/12/12; 12:30 PM EST = +30; signal line is +13; go long 1384; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.0%)(Keybot this trade = +1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.5%; Actual for 2012 = +6.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. XLF dropped under 15.10 and VIX popped above 19 which is causing the increased bearish action.  RTH is above 41 which helps bulls despite the WMT bribery scandal.  Keybot wants to go short but internal programming rules are holding it back, it needs a couple more things to fall into place. A turn to the short side appears imminent. If SPX stays under 1362 for several minutes that may cause Keybot to change. The bulls are hanging on by their fingernails. 

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/23/12; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +13 but the algorithm says stay long

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the weekend.  The Sunday print results in the signal lilne moving up one tick. Futures markets will be impacted tonight by the France election results, which should be released around 8 PM EST, and the HSBC Flash China PMI which should be released around 10:30 PM EST. The uitilities, UTIL, jumped 2% last week helping the bulls. If UTIL stays above 451, now at 461, this continues to help the bulls. 

Sectors such as copper, commodities and semiconductors are the main drivers of market weakness currently.  The Flash PMI overnight will impact copper and commodities. Watch JJC 48.20, now at 47.21,favoring bearishness in markets.

The quant is scanning XLF, VIX and RTH with the greatest interest.  Watch XLF 15.10, now at 15.19, impacting markets bullishly but only by nine pennies. The broad indexes will take another leg lower if XLF 15.10 fails.  Watch RTH 41.00, now at 41.90, impacting markets bullishly. The broad indexes will weaken if RTH 41.00 fails.  Watch VIX 18.90, now at 17.44, impacting markets bullishly. The broad indexes will weaken if the VIX moves above 18.90. If any two of these three scenario's occur, the quant will likely flip to the short side, otherwise, Keybot will likely stay long.

For the SPX starting at 1379, failure at the 1377-1378 level will accelerate a move lower for markets. The bulls need to push upwards thru the 1387-1388 to create an upward market acceleration.  A move thru 1377-1385 is sideways action. Since the bears only need a couple red points in the futures tonight, the France and HSBC information mentioned above is very important. Markets remain unstable.  Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday.

4/30/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +12

4/19/12; 3:03 PM EST = +30; signal line is +11

Note Added 4/23/12 at 4:51 AM EST:  Sarkozy loses to Hollande as expected and the S&P futures fell a couple points last evening, no biggie.  As more of Hollande's ideas are exposed, however, the markets may further sour. The France runoff election is 5/6/12.  The more important news was the HSBC Flash China PMI coming in at 49.1, showing six consecutive months of a contracting Chinese economy (under 50 is contraction). The dollar is up while copper, oil, gold, silver and commodities are down. Diesel demand in China is dropping significantly which is not a good sign of a robust economy. The weakness in the sectors filters into the weak U.S. futures, the Dow Industrials down over 100 at this writing. The behavior of VIX, XLF and RTH after the opening bell is very important as described above.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Friday's action was a sideways trade and the algo simply motored along without printing any numbers. For next week, the quant is tracking RTH, XLF and VIX and the levels of interest and roadmap will be highlighted after the Sunday-scheduled print occurs tomorrow. Markets remain unstable.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/19/12; 3:03 PM EST = +30; signal line is +11

4/19/12; 2:17 PM EST = +16; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  Volatilty, VIX, spiked above 19 today which ushered in the afternoon market weakness, but, at 3 PM the VIX dropped back under 19 which pushed the broad markets higher. The semiconductors, SOX, failed today and sit in the bear camp.  The algo is now fixated on four sectors; volatility, utilities, financials and retail.

Watch VIX 19.00, now at 18.36, above 19 and bears are happy, below and bulls are happy. Watch utilities, UTIL 451.20, now at 456.51, above 451 and bulls are happy, below and bears are happy.  Watch financials, XLF 15.10, now at 15.27, above 15.10 and bulls are happy, below and bears are happy. Watch RTH 40.94, now at 41.79, above 40.94 and bulls are happy, below and bears hare happy.  All four are bullish now so if any two of them join the bears, Keybot will likely flip short.  For the bulls to recover, the SOX must resurrect itself from 415 back up to 422.25 so the bears appear to have the upper hand moving forward.

For the SPX, starting at 1377, the bulls need to push upwards and touch 1390.50, if so, the markets will accelerate higher with the SPX headed to the psychological 1400.  The bears need to push lower to lose the 1370 handle, if so, the markets will accelerate lower into the low 1360's.  The SPX lost the 50-day MA today which is bearish.  A move thru 1371-1389 is sideways action. Markets are unstable. Monitor the four sectors highlighted above to determine broad market direction.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/19/12; 3:03 PM EST = +30; signal line is +11

4/19/12; 2:17 PM EST = +16; signal line is +10

4/19/12; 11:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +10

4/19/12; 10:31 AM EST = +46; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The SOX ran higher this morning ushering in the broad market strength, then SOX tumbled lower taking the markets back down.  Volatilty remains low and the BAC and MS positive bank earnings are helping keep XLF elevated.  Watch SOX 422.20 (now bearish), VIX 19 (now bullish) and XLF 15.10 (now bullish) to gauge broad market direction.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/19/12; 11:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +10

4/19/12; 10:31 AM EST = +46; signal line is +10

4/18/12; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +9

4/18/12; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The market stumbled along sideways today as traders went into wait and see mode ahead of the Spain auctions, which should go off at 4 AM or 5 AM EST, only a few hours away. A significant development favoring the bears today was the CRB falling under 300, this signals that the economy is falling into disinflation. VIX and SOX will again determine broad market direction when the bell rings.  Watch SOX 422.00, now bearish at 419.51.  Watch VIX 19.00, now bulish at 18.64. Watch financials also, XLF 15.10, now bullish at 15.34.

For the SPX, starting at 1385, the bulls need to touch 1391, if so, the broad markets will accelerate upwards. The bears need to push down under 1383, if so, the broad markets will accelerate downwards.  The Spain bond auctions, good or bad, will impact the futures and show the path forward. The bulls want to see six or more green points; the bears want to see two or more red points. Markets remain unstable. Caution is warranted and Europe will set the tone for tomorrow's trading.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/18/12; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +9

4/18/12; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The VIX popped above 19 to push the markets lower, but then fell on its sword, dropping back under 19 and the markets recovered. Use VIX 19 and the SPX 1388 support/resistance level as your guide today. Markets remain unstable so the caution flag remains out. Keybot has clicked off three numbers thus far today so the algo is active in today's trading.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/18/12; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +9

4/18/12; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +9

4/18/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +9

4/17/12; 9:50 AM EST = +46; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. SOX collapsed down thru 422.25 at the open, bearish.  But the VIX would not stay above 19 so this took the wind out of the bearish move.  Watch SPX 422.25 and VIX 19 today to determine market direction.  Markets may meander sideways awaiting the all-important Spain auctions now only 18 hours away. Bears now making a run testing 19 on the VIX.  Caution is required.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/18/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +9

4/17/12; 9:50 AM EST = +46; signal line is +9

4/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The higher SOX and lower VIX won the day for bulls. Watch SOX 422.25, now at 423.20, one point on the bull side which affects the broad markets positively.  Perhaps the SOX reverses since INTC laid an egg with earnings. Watch VIX 19.00, now at 18.46, one-half point on the bull side which affects the broad markets positively. Bears want to see the VIX spike above 19.

For the SPX starting at 1391, the bulls only need to see two measley points in the futures, and if the 1393 handle is touched after the opening bell, the broad markets will accelerate higher to test the 20-day MA at 1395 and then the psychological 1400 level.  The bears will simply try to stop the upside momo via the SOX and/or VIX as described above.  A move thru 1370-1392 is sideways action.  Markets remain unstable as recent action proves. There are no more pre-scheduled numbers printing until Sunday so the market action alone dictates if the quant prints any numbers for the remainder of the week. 

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/17/12; 9:50 AM EST = +46; signal line is +9

4/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +8

4/17/12; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Volatilty dropped under 19 as soon as the bell rang, now under 18 so the bulls are throwing confetti.  The semiconductors, SOX, ran higher, the quant now tracking the 422.25 level, and the SOX is printing 422.71, adding further bull fuel. The SPX came up to fight with the 1379.50 level identified this morning, before punching up thru and receiving the acceleration move higher. Tech is leading the upside which emboldens the bulls.  The Dow Industrials are over 13K. SPX next resistance is 1386. Note how the SPX came back up erasing the deficit that Keybot was in over the last couple days. The robots are always smarter than the humans. Markets remain unstable so lots of twists and turns lay ahead.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/17/12; 9:50 AM EST = +46; signal line is +9

4/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +8

4/17/12; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

4/16/12; 9:57 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled number prints a few minutes ago, resulting in no change to the algo number or the signal line.  The quant appears most interested in volatility, financials and semiconductors.  VIX starts at 19.55; watch the 19.00 level, if it fails, the bulls will enjoy market buoyancy. The bears need to keep the VIX elevated above 19.00.  For financials, GS reported earnings that look good, but the markets are luke warm towards the stock. This action will impact the XLF now at 15.24.  If XLF drops under 15.09, the bears will drive markets lower.  The bulls need to keep XLF above 15.09.

For semiconductors, SOX, now at 416.70 in the bear camp, watch to see if the 421.50 level is taken out since this will provide bull fuel.  The bears need to keep SOX under 421.50. For the SPX today, starting at 1370, the bears need to push the index under 1366 to accelerate the downside selling but the futures say the bulls will run instead.  The market bulls need to push above 1379.50, if so, the bulls will accelerate a much stronger upside move in quick order.  The futures project a 6 handle upside move so at 1370+6 = 1376 this would not be high enough for bulls to break out party hats. A move thru 1367-1378 is sideways action today. Pay attention to VIX, XLF and SOX when the bell rings.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/17/12; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

4/16/12; 9:57 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

4/16/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The opening bell rang and utilities sky rocketed favoring bulls. Financials ran up favoring bulls. Volatilty dropped favoring bulls. Just before 10 AM, VIX switched directions again and moved higher which helps the market bears.  Watch VIX 19.00.  VIX is now printing 19.40 so at 40 cents higher, the market bears are happy.  But the bulls are enjoying market buoyancy due to the stronger utes and financials. The SPX fell thru the 1370 level ten minutes after the open and tested 1366 support in quick order, and bounced. The 1366 support held today. The Nasdaq is weak since AAPL is out behind the shed receiving a beating. Markets remain unstable but for now the bulls are hanging in there overall.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/17/12; 9:00 AM EST =

4/16/12; 9:57 AM EST = +16; signal line is +8

4/16/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +8

4/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = 0; signal line is +8 but algorithm says stay long

4/13/12; 3:58 PM EST = 0; signal line is +9 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET LONG -- BULLISH -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the weekend.  The algo is idling so the Sunday number printed without any change to the algo number but the signal line dropped one tick. The three sectors to watch at the opening bell are utilities, financials and volatility. For utes, watch the 451.20 level, if above the bulls will push markets higher, if below, the markets will receive a negative bias.  UTIL is now at 452.10 so if this print stays above 451.20, there should be an immediate increase in the algo number as the bell rings. In general, for the days and weeks ahead, UTIL must remain at 448 or higher, if it drops under at anytime that is a signal of market trouble. For this week, UTIL 451.20 signals broad market trouble.

For financials, watch XLF 15.09.  XLF is now at 15.13 only four pennies on the bull side which affects the broad markets positively.  At the opening bell, XLF will either stay above 15.09, or fail, this tells you broad market direction. And thirdly, watch VIX 19.45.  VIX is now at 19.55 moving up at the end of the day Friday during the market selloff.  If VIX stays above 19.45, the bears will be happy, if VIX drops back under 19.45 that signals that the market bulls are bouncing the broad markets higher.

For the SPX, starting at 1370.26, the market bears need to see red futures overnight tonight, only one measley negative spoo point is needed so the SPX drops under 1370 at the opening bell, and this will accelerate the broad market downside move. A test of 1363-1366 support will quickly follow.  The market bulls will try to stop the down move by keeping the overnight futures green, the utes and financials elevated, and moving volatilty lower as described above, and this action would likely keep Keybot on the long side. A move thru SPX 1371-1386 is sideways action. Continue watching the dance of price vesus the 50-day MA at 1375.71, which serves as a resistance ceiling.

Note that Keybot is about 14 handles in the wrong direction currently; the quant has traveled as much as 25 handles in the wrong direction before. The more important aspect of broad market direction will be dictated by the three sectors highlighted above.  If the bears rule the day and the algo triggers the short side, then a one or two percent loss will be taken by the quant as it flips to the short side. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning.  Markets remain unstable. Caution is warranted. The printout for Keybot will not be updated on this site until tomorrow afternoon but, with the description above, the readership here is easily able to gauge the market outcome. The opening move after the bell tomorrow is very important.

4/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/17/12; 9:00 AM EST =

4/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = 0; signal line is +8 but algorithm says stay long

4/13/12; 3:58 PM EST = 0; signal line is +9 but algorithm says stay long

4/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Friday the 13th craziness ushered in a wild finish to a lazy, slow-moving day.  The markets dropped in the final minutes of trading as financials sold off and volatilty spiked higher.  The VIX closed above 19.45 by pennies. The XLF came down to close at 15.13, a penny above the level that Keybot was watching earlier in the day. The current level of interest for XLF, since Keybot is constantly recalculating and adjusting all trigger levels, is 15.10, so the finanicals remain on the bull side by a hair. The SPX came down to print a 1369 handle in the final minutes as well but bounced as long buyers came in to buy the closing print. How does Keybot know these levels far in advance of when the occur? Truly remarkable.

The algo number is now below the signal line but the quant did not flip to the short side since other programming rules held it back during the chaos into the close. In fact, the algo is scanning the utilities, UTIL, 451.20 level for next week and at Monday's opening bell the first print should trigger with a higher number and thus bounce the algo number higher once again.  Once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints, the levels of interest for next week's trading can be identified. Markets remain unstable and the action in the closing minutes clearly shows why.

4/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/13/12; 3:58 PM EST = 0; signal line is +9 but algorithm says stay long

4/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +11

4/13/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14; signal line is +12

4/12/12; 12:30 PM EST = +30; signal line is +13; go long 1384; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.0%)(Keybot this trade = +1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.5%; Actual for 2012 = +6.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  Note the bull-bear fight that is ongoing with the algo number only a few integers from the signal line.  Watch SOX, semiconductors, the 423.50 level, which failed at the open. Financials are weak as well. Watch XLF 15.12. The current print is 15.32 twenty cents above danger.  Watch VIX 19.30. The current print is 18.25 which is one dollar in favor of the bulls.  In the final hour of trading today, focus on the utilities.  If UTIL closes the day above 451.20, the bulls will start next week on a happy note. Bears will try to push UTIL under 451.20.  The pre-scheduled number printed minutes ago with no change to the algo number but the signal line dropped one point.  Markets remain unstable.  Caution is warranted.

4/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +11

4/13/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14; signal line is +12

4/12/12; 12:30 PM EST = +30; signal line is +13; go long 1384; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.0%)(Keybot this trade = +1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.5%; Actual for 2012 = +6.7%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns Bullish from 4/12/12

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
4/12/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:30 PM EST at SPX 1384; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.0%; Keybot algo is up 5.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.7%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw to occur either tomorrow or Monday.
3/28/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:33 AM EST at SPX 1409, whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot algo is up 3.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.2%.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%.
1/1/12: The new year begins. For 2011, the SPX Benchmark is flat finishing up 0%; Keybot algo finished the year up 33%; Keybot actual trading ended the year up 37%. Keybot begins 2012 remaining long. The new year begins at SPX 1258.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at 12:30 PM at SPX 1384. Lower volatility and higher semiconductors sealed the deal today.  The volume spike at 12:30 PM shows the pure algorithmic trading occurring, as other robots locked into the long side along with Keybot.  Ma and Pa investor have no chance against the machines in this casino, they only serve as bag holders.

Keybot's program gained 1.8% and the actual trading gained 1.5% on the last trade. The quant remains in a lower risk mode using single ETF's and will not revert to the double X ETF's until May. The SPX is up 10% for the year thus far, Keybot the Quant's actual trading is up almost 7% thus far in 2012.

Stay on guard for a whipsaw, especially in these current unstable markets. It would not be surprising to see Keybot flip back to the short side at some point over the next day or two. Caution is warranted.

4/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

4/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

4/12/12; 12:30 PM EST = +30; signal line is +13; go long 1384; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.0%)(Keybot this trade = +1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.5%; Actual for 2012 = +6.7%)

4/12/12; 11:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +15 but algorithm says stay short

4/12/12; 9:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +16

4/11/12; 11:49 AM EST = 0; signal line is +17

4/11/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14; signal line is +19

4/10/12; 3:46 PM EST = -32; signal line is +21

4/10/12; 3:33 PM EST = -16; signal line is +24

4/10/12; 3:10 PM EST = -32; signal line is +27

4/10/12; 2:53 PM EST = -16; signal line is +31

4/10/12; 2:39 PM EST = -32; signal line is +34

4/10/12; 12:09 PM EST = -16; signal line is +38

4/10/12; 11:40 AM EST = 0; signal line is +41

4/8/12; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +43

4/6/12; 9:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +44

4/5/12; 3:37 PM EST = +14; signal line is +45

4/5/12; 2:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +47

4/5/12; 1:46 PM EST = +14; signal line is +48

4/5/12; 1:34 PM EST = +30; signal line is +49

4/5/12; 12:38 PM EST = +14; signal line is +50

4/5/12; 11:58 AM EST = +30; signal line is +53

4/5/12; 9:46 AM EST = +30; signal line is +54

4/4/12; 11:44 AM EST = +14; signal line is +56

4/4/12; 11:04 AM EST = +30; signal line is +58

4/4/12; 10:50 AM EST = +14; signal line is +60

4/4/12; 10:05 AM EST = +30; signal line is +62

4/3/12; 8:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +64

4/2/12; 2:13 PM EST = +60; signal line is +64

4/2/12; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +65

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +62; signal line is +65

3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST = +62; signal line is +66

3/29/12; 3:14 PM EST = +62; signal line is +66

3/28/12; 12:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +66

3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)