Wednesday, April 25, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side. The gap up occurred this morning which holds the algo back for an hour and one-half.  Shortly thereafter the quant went long.  The last trade results in a whipsaw from Monday's short move with the algorithm program and actual trading both giving up about two percent.  The Benchmark SPX is up 10.3% for the year thus far. RTH is well above 40.96, XLF above 15.10 and VIX well below 18.50 so the bulls were cruising all day long.

As always, just like Monday's turn, stay alert for a whipsaw.  It would not be surprising to see Keybot flip back to the short side tomorrow or Friday.  The printout shows how the algo number and signal line number are flip-flopping every few hours so it is doubtful that the wrestling match is over.  Monitor RTH, XLF and VIX as listed above.  In addition, now that the bulls want to roll higher, the only way extended upside can occur is if either copper, commodities or semiconductors join the bull camp. Watch JJC 48.10, CRB 311 and SOX 417. The upside for the broad indexes will be limited unless one of these three sectors give way.

For the SPX for Thursday, starting at 1391, the bulls only need to see one green point in the futures and a further upside acceleration will occur for the broad indexes, with a likely a test of 1399, then perhaps the psychological 1400.  The bears will stop the upside momo if they keep the futures red overnight to prevent the bullish acceleration, and then try to return either retail, financials or volatilty to the bear side. A move thru SPX 1374-1390 is sideways action. Markets remain unstable. Caution is required.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =
4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =
4/25/12; 11:29 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21; go long 1387; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +2.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.1%; Actual for 2012 = +3.0%)
4/24/12; 2:57 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short
4/24/12; 2:09 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20
4/24/12; 2:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is +20
4/24/12; 1:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20
4/24/12; 10:57 AM EST = +30; signal line is +18 but algorithm says stay short
4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +17
4/24/12; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +15 but the algorithm says stay short
4/23/12; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +14; go short 1362; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.1%)

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.