Tuesday, April 24, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short but the algo wants to flip to the long side. Other programming rules are holding the algo back. The SPX 1376 level is important for Wednesday since Keybot will likely flip back to the long side if the 1376 or higher occurs.

RTH 40.96, XLF 15.10 and VIX 18.50 will be important again for Wednesday. All three are bullish now affecting the markets positively. For the SPX starting at 1372, less than four green points are needed to ignite an upside acceleration.  If 1376 is touched the bulls will run the markets higher.  The bears need to regain one of the three sectors listed above or prevent the 1376 from occurring. If the bears can push under the 1367 handle the downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1368-1375 is sideways action.  Considering AAPL's run up in the after hours Tuesday evening, the market bulls may want to run for a few days.

4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =
4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/12; 2:57 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short
4/24/12; 2:09 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20
4/24/12; 2:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is +20
4/24/12; 1:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +20
4/24/12; 10:57 AM EST = +30; signal line is +18 but algorithm says stay short
4/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +17

Note Added 4/25/12 at 4:31 AM EST:  Futures are running higher, the S&P's are up about 10 or 11 handles currently. The algorithm has several timers and if a gap up occurs at the open, which is likely, the algo will be held back from jumping to the long side right away. Under this scenario the time between 10:50 AM and 11:05 AM will be particularly important where the quant will likely decide to go long.  Without a gap up the quant will probably flip long after the open. Thus, it may require a couple hours this morning to note the true market reaction from the AAPL earnings.

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