Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls needed to bounce VIX, XLF and RTH today to regain momo; they succeeded at moving all three to the bull camp in the opening minute of trading. As the day moved along, volatility rejoined the bear camp so this placed a lid on the upside move.
Watch VIX 19.45 (now bearish at 20.02), XLF 15.10 (now bullish at 15.20) and RTH 40.65 (now bullish at 41.02). These three determine broad market direction for Thursday's trade. The bulls need to move the VIX back under 19.45 to gain traction. The bears need to move either XLF or RTH under the levels shown to ignite the market downside. Copper and commodities have collapsed in recent days and likely ensure further market weakness moving forward.
For the SPX, starting at 1368.71, the bulls need to touch the 1375 handle, if so, the broad indexes will accelerate higher. The bears need to push lower to lose the 1359 handle, if you see a 1358 print, the downside will accelerate for the broad indexes. A move thru 1360-1374 is sideways action. The 50-day MA at 1373.29 serves as key resistance. The bears remain in firm control. Watch VIX in the opening minute for an immediate read on market direction.
4/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =
4/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =
4/11/12; 11:49 AM EST = 0; signal line is +17
4/11/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14; signal line is +19
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