STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are running with the ball for the first time this year; will they run downfield or trip and fumble? Market bulls need either JJC above 23.90 and/or VIX below 19.20 which will prove the upside stock market rally is real. Until at least one of these two parameters occur, the rally in equities is suspect.

The market bears need to push UTIL under 594.41 to get their mojo back but this is a formidable task with UTIL exploding above 611 last week. If UTIL drops under 594.41, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side. If UTIL drops under 580.50 it is likely that the stock market would go into free fall. For now, bulls are not worried since utes are strong.

For the SPX for Monday starting at 1940, the bulls need any smidge of green in the S&P futures overnight and bingo, several handles of upside is on tap for the SPX after the opening bell. The bears need to retrace Friday's big move higher, as they say in Brooklyn, 'good luck wit dat', so instead the bears will be pushing utilities and copper lower and volatility higher. Watch copper overnight since stocks will likely move in the same direction as the other yellow metal this week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls are driving the bus with the algo number 13 points above the signal line but the caution flag remains out until utes, copper and volatility decide the market direction forward.

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend as the bulls will attempt to continue the recovery rally next week. Bulls will need higher copper and lower volatility to verify that the stock market will continue rallying. Parameters and levels of interest can be highlighted after the Sunday and EOM number prints tomorrow.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

1/29/16; 9:34 AM EST = +23; signal line is -38; go long 1902; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -7.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.0%)(Actual results this trade = +11.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

After all the recent threats, the Keybot the Quant flips to the long side. UTIL ran up through the critical 597 level and never looked back. UTIL is at 608 now creating bull fuel. Keybot flips long at SPX 1902 after the opening bell. The market bulls have to move JJC (copper) above 23.90 and/or VIX under 19.20 to firmly prove that up is the direction for stocks going forward. The market bears must send UTIL under 597 to create market negativity. If the three parameters above bump along remaining  in their respective camps, equities will float along sideways with a slight upward bias. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw move back to the short side. For now, the bulls are in charge for the first time this year.

The SPX benchmark index begins the year down -7%. On the first trade of 2016, the algorithm gains +7% and the actual executed trading gains +11.4%. Keybot exits RWM and enters SSO. The algo is back in 2x ETF mode using a double-leveraged play. The 2x ETF's will be used unless a whipsaw move occurs which will cause the model to drop back into the 1x ETF mode for about a 5-week duration. The bulls have the ball; how far will they run down field?

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

1/29/16; 9:34 AM EST = +23; signal line is -38; go long 1902; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -7.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.0%)(Actual results this trade = +11.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.4%)

1/28/16; 12:35 PM EST = -23; signal line is -38 but algorithm remains short

1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = -39; signal line is -38

1/25/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39

1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short

1/22/16; 11:57 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short

1/21/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -39

1/21/16; 1:29 PM EST = -56; signal line is -39

1/21/16; 10:26 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38

1/21/16; 9:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -38

1/20/16; 3:15 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37

1/20/16; 11:54 AM EST = -56; signal line is -37

1/20/16; 10:25 AM EST = -40; signal line is -36

1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

1/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = -24; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short

1/15/16; 2:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37

1/15/16; 1:35 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37

1/15/16; 1:34 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36

1/15/16; 1:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short

1/15/16; 12:55 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short

1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

1/12/16; 3:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -35

1/12/16; 3:07 PM EST = -56; signal line is -35

1/12/16; 1:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -34

1/12/16; 12:30 PM EST = -56; signal line is -33

1/12/16; 12:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -33

1/12/16; 11:16 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short

1/12/16; 11:01 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/12/16; 9:55 AM EST = -56; signal line is -31

1/12/16; 9:54 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30

1/11/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29

1/8/16; 3:53 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29

1/8/16; 11:49 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 11:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -29

1/8/16; 10:50 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 10:42 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30

1/8/16; 10:32 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 10:15 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/8/16; 9:38 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/7/16; 11:28 AM EST = -40; signal line is -32

1/7/16; 11:17 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short

1/7/16; 11:04 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/7/16; 10:54 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short

1/7/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -28

1/6/16; 3:18 PM EST = -24; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short

1/6/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -22

1/6/16; 12:14 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19

1/6/16; 12:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18

1/6/16; 11:26 AM EST = -8; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short

1/6/16; 11:15 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

1/6/16; 10:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -11

1/6/16; 10:39 AM EST = -24; signal line is -8

1/6/16; 10:27 AM EST = -8; signal line is -6

1/6/16; 10:14 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4

1/6/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -3

1/5/16; 1:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -1

1/5/16; 10:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +0

1/5/16; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is +1

1/5/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is +3

1/4/16; 11:34 AM EST = -40; signal line is +5

1/4/16; 11:02 AM EST = -56; signal line is +7

1/4/16; 10:39 AM EST = -40; signal line is +10

1/4/16; 10:32 AM EST = -56; signal line is +13

1/4/16; 10:08 AM EST = -40; signal line is +17

1/4/16; 9:59 AM EST = -24; signal line is +19

1/4/16; 9:57 AM EST = -40; signal line is +21

1/4/16; 9:48 AM EST = -56; signal line is +23

1/4/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is +25

1/1/16; Begin 2016 Data Set = +6; signal line is +27; go short 2044; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2016 = 0%) Keybot the Quant Begins 2016 on the Short Side from SPX 2044. All Data 0%. Begin 2016.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues, one day down a couple hundred Dow points and the next day up a couple hundred. The bull-bear fight is ongoing with the algo number and signal line displaying only a one point difference. The bulls need either VIX below 19.30, JJC above 23.88 and/or UTIL above 597 to prove the relief rally is real. If any one of those three parameters turn bullish, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need UTIL under 577.33 which would unleash carnage in the stock market. If the parameters remain as is, the stock market will float sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 1904, the bulls need to touch 1907 and the upside will accelerate to 1910-1912 immediately then to 1920. The bears need to push under 1879 to regain their mojo. A move through 1880-1906 is sideways action for Wednesday. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls also have their hands on the steering wheel as the vehicle careens down the boulevard. Pay attention to volatility and copper.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = -39; signal line is -38

1/25/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39

1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

The bull-bear battle continues. With Friday's robust upside action you would think the algo would have flipped long but it did not. Keybot is a hair away from flipping long and probably will if the SPX runs above 1909, however, the bulls will likely be slapped in the face due to the utilities. UTIL 577.24 and 596.98 are two key bull-bear levels for the week ahead. UTIL begins at 589.14 creating stock market bullishness above the 577 level but will create bearishness under 597 and likely dampen the bulls hope to receive the go signal for the upside (last week the key upper level was UTIL 583 but this number no longer has any meaning and is replaced with 597 for all of this week).

The opening minutes of trading will be very critical on Monday morning. Since the utes may be out of touch for the bulls, volatility or copper may lock in the move to the bull camp if either VIX drops under 19.33 and/or JJC moves above 23.95. Keybot is currently flagging utilities, volatility and copper as the three key parameters most greatly impacting broad market direction.

For the SPX starting at 1907, the bulls need to touch 1909 and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 1910-1912 in a heartbeat and then likely to 1920 and the uber strong 1924 resistance level. The bears need to push under 1877 to regain their downside mojo, a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on pushing utilities lower, volatility higher and copper lower. A move through 1878-1908 is sideways action to begin the new week.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday. The January month of trading ends on Friday. Note that the algo number is overtaking the signal line more and more each day but the bulls still need a tiny bit more energy to confirm a relief rally and flip Keybot to the long side.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short

1/22/16; 11:57 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short

1/21/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -39

1/21/16; 1:29 PM EST = -56; signal line is -39

1/21/16; 10:26 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38

1/21/16; 9:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -38

1/20/16; 3:15 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37

1/20/16; 11:54 AM EST = -56; signal line is -37

1/20/16; 10:25 AM EST = -40; signal line is -36

1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short and does not print any numbers during the Tuesday session. The algo wants to flip long but internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 1901 tomorrow (Wednesday), Keybot will likely flip long and price will likely accelerate rapidly higher towards 1910. The bears mush push the SPX under 1865 to accelerate price lower. A move through 1866-1900 is sideways action for Wednesday. The SPX begins the session from 1881. The bears need lower utilities and higher volatility to maintain downward pressure in stocks. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

1/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = -24; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the three-day holiday weekend. Markets are closed in the States on Monday in honor of Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day. Markets reopen Tuesday morning. Friday was market carnage. The algo continues to stagger through wanting to go long but continuing to revert lower remaining in the bear camp. The algo number is 13 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move to the long side.

Utilities will be key next week and continue to play an important role. UTIL 583.36 is a key level for every day next week and price was fighting for this level during the last hour of trading yesterday but closes below. Bulls need higher utes and bears need lower utes. This can be discussed in more detail after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

The algo was active on Friday printing seven numbers including the pre-scheduled number.

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = -24; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short

1/15/16; 2:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37

1/15/16; 1:35 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37

1/15/16; 1:34 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36

1/15/16; 1:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short

1/15/16; 12:55 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short

1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the model remains positioned to go long. The internal parameters will not fully latch as yet to permit the move. Keybot has not printed any numbers since Tuesday. At yesterday's opening bell, price gapped higher to 1946-1950 and then collapsed trending lower all day long. The algo did not bite on the long side.

Did you see late in the day yesterday UTIL dropping down to the exact range of 577.25-577.85 called out by the algo and then bounce? Isn't it amazing that those levels are called out before they occur? That was critical. If UTIL fails at 577, stocks will likely crash. So anyone bullish on the markets should be happy with the magnitude of the selloff that occurred yesterday since markets were actually on the edge of a complete breakdown into free fall.

UTIL 577.25-577.85 remains key. Price is above at 584 so this is causing lift in the stock market. Watch VIX 19.40. Price is 22.29 firmly above causing market bearishness. If VIX falls under 20, the recovery rally in stocks is real, until then, markets remain a coin-flip.

Keybot will likely flip long if the SPX moves above 1950 or if some wild upside orgy move kicks in it could flip long sooner. This is a formidable task so bulls may simply try to stabilize markets today and stop the market selling by keeping utes elevated and pushing volatility lower. The beat goes on. Keybot the Quant wants to flip long but the ducks are not yet lined up in a row. SPX is at 1917.

It is interesting looking back to the last day of trading for 2015 on New Year's Eve. Keybot flipped short during the last minute of trading of 2015 and has been short ever since. The move to end the year appeared very odd and unexpected at the time but here we are two weeks later. Machines are smarter than humans.

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utilities ran higher and stocks rallied into the Tuesday closing bell. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long and will likely flip long at SPX 1947 on Wednesday, if the bulls continue the rally. Market bears will create weakness in the stock market again if UTIL drops under that 577.25-577.85 range.

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

1/12/16; 3:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -35

1/12/16; 3:07 PM EST = -56; signal line is -35

1/12/16; 1:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new year market shenanigans continue. Keybot was champing at the bit to go long at the opening bell today. Market bulls would have been better served with a slow and gentle rise higher in equities. Instead, stocks gapped higher and a timer was activated in the algo preventing the model from flipping sides for 87 minutes. About 25 minutes into trading it was a moot point since the stock market went downhill again. The algo prints seven numbers thus far today, a very active day, and the drama will likely continue.

Utilities are key to broad market direction and are sending stocks to and fro today. Watch the two key levels previously mentioned, UTIL 577.25 and 577.85. If UTIL falls under 577.25, stocks are in trouble and will paint an ugly tape into the closing bell. If UTIL recovers and moves above 577.85 and higher, stocks will rally into the closing bell and a recovery rally may be at hand. If UTIL moves above 577.85 and stays above for 7 to 10 minutes, and the SPX moves into the 1936-1947 zone, Keybot will likely flip long. UTIL is at 577.45, 'weeeelllll doggie', as Jed Clampett would say on the Beverly Hillbillies television show, that bugger is right between the two key levels. As utes go, so goes the market. The bears continue to drive the bus but the bulls are fighting hard trying to create strength in stocks with higher utilities.

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/12/16; 1:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -34

1/12/16; 12:30 PM EST = -56; signal line is -33

1/12/16; 12:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -33

1/12/16; 11:16 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short

1/12/16; 11:01 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/12/16; 9:55 AM EST = -56; signal line is -31

1/12/16; 9:54 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30

1/11/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short printing one number to begin the new week of trading. Utilities were higher so you knew that the stock market would not break down. The algo number is above the signal line so Keybot is champing at the bit to go long and will as soon as all the necessary parameters latch. If the SPX moves above 1936, Keybot will likely flip long. If VIX drops under 19.42 the bulls are launching a strong recovery rally.

Watch two levels for UTIL; 577.25 and 577.95. If utilities break down and UTIL falls under 577, with all other parameters as is, the stock market has an increased potential of crashing. If UTIL loses 577 you had better run for cover since there will likely be a bloodbath hitting at anytime. If UTIL moves higher, the bulls will continue to create a recovery rally.

For the SPX starting at 1924, the bulls need to push above 1936 to regain their mojo, and as stated above, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need to push under 1901 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1902-1935 is sideways action for Tuesday. At the opening bell, either SPX heads towards 1936 signaling the all-clear for the upside, or, utilities will crumble creating market negativity.

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/11/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the new week of trading. The bears remain in control with the algo number 11 points below the signal line but the bulls keep threatening to take over control. Utilities are the key parameter for broad market direction at Monday's openign bell. Bulls win above UTIL 579.06 and the stock market will begin a recovery rally. Bears win big under 577.26 since this failure will send stocks into free fall. UTIL begins at 578.82.

For the SPX starting at 1922, the bears need to push below 1918, four points lower, and boom, stocks will collapse towards 1910 in a heartbeat. The bulls need to push the SPX above 1960 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead, bulls will focus on pushing utilities higher. A move through 1919-1959 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29

1/8/16; 3:53 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo keeps threatening to flip long. Keybot prints nine numbers on Friday including the pre-scheduled number before the opening bell. The bears remain in control with the algo number 11 points below the signal line. Utilities are going to tell the tale on Monday. Bulls win above UTIL 579.06 and will begin a recovery rally. Bears win big under 577.26 since this failure will send stocks into free fall. UTIL begins at 578.82.

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/8/16; 3:53 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29

1/8/16; 11:49 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 11:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -29

1/8/16; 10:50 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 10:42 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30

1/8/16; 10:32 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 10:15 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/8/16; 9:38 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/7/16; 11:28 AM EST = -40; signal line is -32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the tumultuous markets. Keybot prints five numbers yesterday. The algo wants to flip long but then is kicked backwards and remains in the bear camp. The imminent turn notation remains. If UTIL moves above 579, and SPX above 1985, Keybot will likely flip long. If a robust rally occurs and utilities, financials, retail stocks, copper and other sectors are launching higher, and volatility plummeting, Keybot may flip long before the SPX 1985 level.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in about one hour's time. For the SPX starting at 1943, the bears need to push under 1939 and boom, price will fall like a rock towards 1930. The bulls need to touch 1985 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will will strive to push utilities and retail stocks higher and volatility lower which will stop the market selling and stabilize stocks.

Under the current market conditions, if UTIL falls under 572.36, the stock market will likely drop into free fall in quick order. The SPX would be expected to dump 20 to 40 handles in a heartbeat. The S&P futures are up +12 pointing to a happy start for markets instead. Going into the closing bell, watch UTIL 577.25; this number is valid for all of next week and replaces the 572.36, thus, it is an easier level for bears to attain. Interestingly, UTIL begins Friday at 577.51 the various robots are already jockeying for position. At 4 PM EST today, if UTIL finishes under 577.25, the stock market would be in danger of a major negative event occurring next week. If UTIL remains above 577.25 at the closing bell, bulls will be in fine shape for a recovery rally for the stock market next week. If UTIL finishes above 579, this will paint an even rosier picture for stocks next week.

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/7/16; 11:28 AM EST = -40; signal line is -32

1/7/16; 11:17 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short

1/7/16; 11:04 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31

1/7/16; 10:54 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short

1/7/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -28

1/6/16; 3:18 PM EST = -24; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after another wild day of action. The algorithm prints 11 numbers in the Wednesday session a very active day. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long right now; the algo number is one point above the signal line, however, the internal parameters are not fully latched to permit the move. One thing the algo likely wants to see is SPX 2012 and if this occurs, Keybot will likely flip long. SPX above 2012 will verify that a recovery rally has begun and will continue. Bulls will celebrate if RTH moves above 76.38.

The bears need weaker utilities, otherwise, they are in trouble since the algo is already a hair away from flipping long. Bears must push UTIL under 579.02 after the opening bell to stop the market upside and resume the downside for equities. If UTIL loses the 572.36 level, a trap-door will open and the stock market will drop into free fall.

For the SPX for Thursday starting at 1990, the bulls need to touch 2012 and bingo, price will accelerate towards 2020. The bears need to push under 1979 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1980-2011 is sideways action for Thursday.

If the SPX moves above 2012, Keybot will likely flip long and perhaps sooner. The turn to the loing side is imminent and likely on Thursday unless you see the utilities sector dropping from the get-go.

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/6/16; 3:18 PM EST = -24; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short

1/6/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -22

1/6/16; 12:14 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19

1/6/16; 12:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18

1/6/16; 11:26 AM EST = -8; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short

1/6/16; 11:15 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

1/6/16; 10:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -11

1/6/16; 10:39 AM EST = -24; signal line is -8

1/6/16; 10:27 AM EST = -8; signal line is -6

1/6/16; 10:14 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4

1/6/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -3

1/5/16; 1:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish moving into Wednesday's trade. The battle is between utilities and volatility. Bulls need VIX under 19.18 to signal a strong upside rally ahead for equities and Keybot will likely flip long. Bears need to push UTIL under 579.07 to begin downside selling in stocks and RTH under 76.40 and UTIL under 572.36 will add lots more bear fuel to crush stocks lower. So VIX 19.18 and UTIL 579.07 tell you the market direction answer after the opening bell.

For the SPX starting at 2017, the bulls need to push above 2022 and bingo, the upside will accelerate towards 2030. The bears need to push under 2004 to accelerate the downside immediately under 2000 and into the 1990's. A move through 2005-2021 is sideways action for Wednesday. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls are wresting for the steering wheel with the algo number only seven points under the signal line.

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/5/16; 1:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -1

1/5/16; 10:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +0

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short but the algo number is only seven points from the signal line as the bulls fight back today. The algo prints four numbers. RTH is in the bull camp creating market upside. UTIL lost 572.36 which opened up a trap door and potential market collapse, however, retail stocks (RTH) were in the bull camp delaying the negativity. This is when money came flooding into the utes to prop up the sector; the bulls knew they had lost it and it meant serious trouble. UTIL ramped higher and did not look back moving above 579.07 the upper bull-bear level of importance which creates bullishness for stocks. The plunge protection team saved the day.

Bears need to push UTIL back under 579.07 as soon as possible. Bulls need to push volatility lower, the VIX under 19.18, which will signal the all-clear for the upside stock market rally and Keybot will likely flip long. UTIL 579.07 and VIX 19.18 are telling the broad market directional story right now.

UTIL is at 581.46 (causing bullishness in the stock market) and VIX at 19.66 (causing bearishness) with about 20 minutes remaining in Tuesday's regular trading session. One of these two parameters will flinch.

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/5/16; 1:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -1

1/5/16; 10:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +0

1/5/16; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is +1

1/5/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is +3

1/4/16; 11:34 AM EST = -40; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears came to play to begin the new year of trading. The algo prints nine numbers today and the algo number is currently 45 points under the signal line; the bears are in firm control. The bulls need RTH above 76.39, VIX below 19.23 and UTIL above 579.30 to regain the upper hand. Any one of these would stop the market selling. RTH begins Tuesday at 76.35 only four pennies in the bear camp, thus, RTH is going to pivot at the opening bell and crown the winning direction going forward. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market.

If the above three parameters remain bearish, the bears need UTIL under 572.36 which will create more market carnage and a dramatic drop in the stock market.

For the SPX starting at 2013, the bulls need to push above 2038, 25 points higher, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on pushing retail stocks higher, volatility lower and utilities and chips higher which will stop the market selling and stabilize equities. The bears need to push under 1990, 23 points lower, also a formidable task, so bears will focus on keeping retail stocks bearish and pushing utilities lower. A move through 1991-2037 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bears are driving the bus to begin 2016.

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/4/16; 11:34 AM EST = -40; signal line is +5

1/4/16; 11:02 AM EST = -56; signal line is +7

1/4/16; 10:39 AM EST = -40; signal line is +10

1/4/16; 10:32 AM EST = -56; signal line is +13

1/4/16; 10:08 AM EST = -40; signal line is +17

1/4/16; 9:59 AM EST = -24; signal line is +19

1/4/16; 9:57 AM EST = -40; signal line is +21

1/4/16; 9:48 AM EST = -56; signal line is +23

1/4/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is +25

1/1/16; Begin 2016 Data Set = +6; signal line is +27; go short 2044; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2016 = 0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant begins the new year on the short side. The failure in financials late Thursday, the last trading day of 2015, created the late-day flush lower in stocks. Therefore, the banks hold the key to begin 2016. Watch XLF 23.85 an uber important bull-bear line in the sand. Price is at 23.83 favoring bears by a couple of pennies but the banks can pivot either way on Monday morning. As the banks go, so go the markets. Obviously, the bears need XLF to remain under 23.85 and drop further which creates smooth sailing for a lower stock market. The bulls need to push XLF above 23.85 and the stock market selling will immediately stop and a rally begins.

The UTIL 580.50 and 572.36 levels are very important. Price is at 578 creating bearishness in the markets because it is under 580.50 but also creating bullishness since it is above 572. Utes require close watching. Bulls need UTIL above 580.50 to gain strength. Bears need UTIL under 572 to gain strength. The UTIL 572.36 level is in play all of this week; ditto the 580.50. If UTIL 572-573 fails, a trap-door effect may occur for the stock market where the SPX drops from 15 to 30 handles in a heartbeat.

The SOX 662.30 level is key; price is at 663.48 only one point in the bull camp. If SOX drops under 662.30, the stock market will take a very strong leg lower. Market bulls are okay if they keep SOX above 662.30. Watch SPX 2053 which remains an uber important level. SPX begins 2016 at 2044 nine points under this key level. If the SPX moves above 2053, bulls are back on easy street.

For the SPX starting at 2044 on Monday morning, the first trading day of the year, the bears only need a smidge of negativity in the S&P futures overnight Sunday into Monday and that will set up an acceleration lower for the SPX into the 2030's. The bulls need to push the SPX above 2063 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on pushing banks and chips higher. A move through 2045-2062 is sideways action to begin the week.

In a nutshell, the bears need to keep XLF under 23.85 and then cause SOX to fail under 662. This will create downside carnage in the stock market. The bulls need to immediately push XLF above 23.85 to signal the all clear and a halt to the market selling. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/1/16; Begin 2016 Data Set = +6; signal line is +27; go short 2044; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2016 = 0%)

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Shows Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns in 2015

Here is the SPX chart showing the algo turns in red and green. The model goes long with the green bar and then goes short with the red bar and back again. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program strives to take the smoothest line possible through the trading year while taking the minimal risk.

2015 was a very sideways choppy market. This type of price action chews up bulls and bears alike. Note how the last 2-1/2 months of the year finishes in a sideways move through 2020-2105. Obviously, bulls win big above 2105 while bears win big below 2020. The battle and sideways whipsaw choppiness continues through 2020-2105. The algorithm made the bulk of its gains in 2015 during the August-September selloff and then the October recovery rally.

2016 begins with the algo short from SPX 2044 with Keybot in the RWM ETF.

KEYBOT THE QUANT FINAL 2015 RESULTS

The final results for 2015 are cast in concrete. The Benchmark SPX (S&P 500) lost -0.7% in 2015 starting the year at 2059 and ending at 2044. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program, this is the nuts and bolts computer program, gained +11.1% during 2015 clearly outperforming the benchmark. The actual trading return is +19.2% a banner year for the algorithm. The Keybot the Quant algo has printed positive returns for every year since it went live in 2008.

2016 begins at SPX 2044. Keybot is in the RWM ETF for the actual trading which is a 1x short ETF. The quant remains in a single ETF mode due to the choppy sideways volatility and will remain in single ETF's for another three weeks unless markets continue the sideways choppy pattern.

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =

1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =

1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/1/16; Begin 2016 Data Set = +6; signal line is +27; go short 2044; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2016 = 0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2016 on the Short Side from SPX 2044. All Data 0%. Begin 2016.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

START 2016 PROGRAM

Begin Printing

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/16; 4:17 PM EST

START 2016 PROGRAM

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

END OF 2015 RESULTS:

SPX Benchmark Final 2015:  -0.7% Loss (SPX Started at 2059 and Ended at 2044)

Keybot the Quant Actual Trading +19.2% Return Big Beat Over the SPX Benchmark

Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish position (long) and a bearish (short) position.

Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2015:  46

Number of Broker Commissions Required During 2015:  92

Benchmark SPX During 2015:  -0.7% Loss

Keybot the Quant Algorithm (Computer Program Only) During 2015: +11.1% Return

Keybot the Quant Actual Trading Return for 2015 Including All Commissions, Costs and Fees:  +19.2% Return

12/31/2014	2059	Sell Long	4:00 PM	SSO	128.31
12/31/2014	2059	Go Long	4:00 PM	SSO	128.31
1/5/2015	2046	Sell Long	9:36 AM	SSO	126.64
1/5/2015	2046	Go Short	9:36 AM	QID	40.01
1/8/2015	2059	Cover short	11:05 AM	QID	39.32
1/8/2015	2059	Go long	11:05 AM	UWM	88.85
1/12/2015	2038	Sell Long	9:36 AM	UWM	87.11
1/12/2015	2038	Go Short	9:36 AM	DXD	21.98
1/22/2015	2054	Cover short	2:32 PM	DXD	21.81
1/22/2015	2054	Go long	2:32 PM	DDM	133.58
1/26/2015	2047	Sell Long	9:31 AM	DDM	132.16
1/26/2015	2047	Go Short	9:31 AM	SH	21.83
2/5/2015	2055	Cover short	9:49 AM	SH	21.72
2/5/2015	2055	Go long	9:49 AM	SPY	205.58
3/3/2015	2104	Sell Long	11:33 AM	SPY	210.71
3/3/2015	2104	Go Short	11:33 AM	SDS	20.77
3/16/2015	2066	Cover short	9:36 AM	SDS	21.43
3/16/2015	2066	Go long	9:36 AM	SSO	129.47
3/17/2015	2077	Sell Long	9:36 AM	SSO	130.17
3/17/2015	2077	Go Short	9:36 AM	SH	21.44
3/18/2015	2090	Cover short	2:13 PM	SH	21.28
3/18/2015	2090	Go long	2:13 PM	SPY	209.27
3/25/2015	2082	Sell Long	11:34 AM	SPY	207.79
3/25/2015	2082	Go Short	11:34 AM	DOG	22.93
3/30/2015	2082	Cover short	9:46 AM	DOG	22.83
3/30/2015	2082	Go long	9:46 AM	DIA	179.39
4/1/2015	2064	Sell Long	9:30 AM	DIA	177.37
4/1/2015	2064	Go Short	9:30 AM	PSQ	57.57
4/6/2015	2074	Cover short	10:21 AM	PSQ	57.61
4/6/2015	2074	Go long	10:21 AM	SPY	207.46
4/17/2015	2086	Sell Long	9:47 AM	SPY	208.42
4/17/2015	2086	Go Short	9:47 AM	SH	21.25
4/20/2015	2096	Cover short	9:38 AM	SH	21.14
4/20/2015	2096	Go long	9:38 AM	SPY	209.42
4/27/2015	2109	Sell Long	3:20 PM	SPY	210.81
4/27/2015	2109	Go Short	3:20 PM	RWM	14.65
5/1/2015	2106	Cover short	2:11 PM	RWM	14.94
5/1/2015	2106	Go long	2:11 PM	SPY	210.46
5/5/2015	2109	Sell Long	9:54 AM	SPY	210.82
5/5/2015	2109	Go Short	9:54 AM	RWM	14.94
5/8/2015	2103	Cover short	9:31 AM	RWM	14.82
5/8/2015	2103	Go long	9:31 AM	SPY	210.96
5/12/2015	2096	Sell Long	9:30 AM	SPY	209.43
5/12/2015	2096	Go Short	9:30 AM	PSQ	56.33
5/15/2015	2110	Cover short	9:36 AM	PSQ	55.75
5/15/2015	2110	Go long	9:36 AM	DIA	181.62
5/26/2015	2121	Sell Long	9:31 AM	DIA	181.78
5/26/2015	2121	Go Short	9:31 AM	SDS	20.10
6/10/2015	2094	Cover short	9:47 AM	SDS	20.54
6/10/2015	2094	Go long	9:47 AM	SSO	66.57
6/25/2015	2106	Sell Long	2:18 PM	SSO	67.29
6/25/2015	2106	Go Short	2:18 PM	SDS	20.23
7/10/2015	2075	Cover short	9:36 AM	SDS	20.75
7/10/2015	2075	Go long	9:36 AM	SSO	65.35
8/6/2015	2093	Sell Long	9:54 AM	SSO	66.52
8/6/2015	2093	Go Short	9:54 AM	SDS	20.31
8/7/2015	2077	Cover short	3:53 AM	SDS	20.59
8/7/2015	2077	Go long	3:53 AM	SSO	65.56
8/12/2015	2064	Sell Long	9:36 AM	SSO	64.76
8/12/2015	2064	Go Short	9:36 AM	SDS	20.80
8/12/2015	2087	Cover short	3:30 PM	SDS	20.37
8/12/2015	2087	Go long	3:30 PM	SPY	208.89
8/20/2015	2076	Sell Long	9:30 AM	SPY	208.00
8/20/2015	2076	Go Short	9:30 AM	SH	21.06
9/16/2015	1995	Cover short	3:23 PM	SH	21.71
9/16/2015	1995	Go long	3:23 PM	IWM	116.81
9/18/2015	1964	Sell Long	9:53 AM	IWM	116.17
9/18/2015	1964	Go Short	9:53 AM	SDS	22.32
10/2/2015	1929	Cover short	12:54 PM	SDS	23.01
10/2/2015	1929	Go long	12:54 PM	SSO	56.23
10/14/2015	2005	Sell Long	12:54 PM	SSO	60.78
10/14/2015	2005	Go Short	12:54 PM	SDS	21.21
10/15/2015	2011	Cover short	1:18 PM	SDS	21.12
10/15/2015	2011	Go long	1:18 PM	SSO	61.04
11/5/2015	2094	Sell Long	10:33 AM	SSO	66.27
11/5/2015	2094	Go Short	10:33 AM	DXD	19.68
11/18/2015	2063	Cover short	11:19 AM	DXD	20.04
11/18/2015	2063	Go long	11:19 AM	SSO	64.41
12/3/2015	2045	Sell Long	2:45 PM	SSO	63.35
12/3/2015	2045	Go Short	2:45 PM	SDS	20.10
12/4/2015	2069	Cover short	9:48 AM	SDS	19.65
12/4/2015	2069	Go long	9:48 AM	SPY	207.46
12/9/2015	2050	Sell Long	12:25 PM	SPY	205.51
12/9/2015	2050	Go Short	12:25 PM	SH	20.89
12/16/2015	2051	Cover short	10:35 AM	SH	20.86
12/16/2015	2051	Go long	10:35 AM	DIA	176.09
12/16/2015	2047	Sell Long	11:24 AM	DIA	175.47
12/16/2015	2047	Go Short	11:24 AM	DOG	22.48
12/16/2015	2059	Cover short	2:10 PM	DOG	22.36
12/16/2015	2059	Go long	2:10 PM	IWM	113.79
12/18/2015	2037	Sell Long	9:30 AM	IWM	112.61
12/18/2015	2037	Go Short	9:30 AM	RWM	62.46
12/22/2015	2031	Cover short	12:35 PM	RWM	62.56
12/22/2015	2031	Go long	21:35 PM	IVV	204.91
12/31/2015	2046	Sell Long	3:59 PM	IVV	205.23
12/31/2015	2046	Go Short	3:59 PM	RWM	61.99
1/1/2016	2044	Cover short	3:00 PM	RWM	62.11
1/1/2016	2044	Go Short	3:00 PM	RWM	62.11

Date – SPX – Position – Date Stamp – ETF – Price

Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order

FINAL 2015

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/16; 3:43 PM EST

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/1/16; Algorithm Zeroed for 2016 Data = +6; signal line is +27; go short 2044; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 Final = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 Final = +11.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2015 Final = +19.2%)

1/1/16; 3:00 PM EST EOM; EOQ4; EOY 2015 = +6; signal line is +27

12/31/15; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +26; go short 2046; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2015 = +19.0%)

12/31/15; 2:37 PM EST = +22; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long