Yesterday, commodities fail into the bear camp creating stock market angst. Note how the SPX fell to the 3026 called out by Keybot ahead of time, and poked down through this critical support for a few minutes, but the bears could not maintain the rupture, and stocks rallied above this low for the remainder of the day.
Bears need the SPX to fall below 3023 for Keybot to likely flip short. The SPX begins Friday morning at 3038 and the important US Monthly Jobs Report hits the tape at 8:30 AM EST before the opening bell.
Bears need weaker copper and retail stocks; CPER under 16.48 and RTH below 114.80, respectively, which will create market mayhem. Since copper is dancing on the bull-bear edge right now, 'as copper goes, so goes the market'.
Bulls must push GTX back above 2428 (now at 2423) as fast as possible to stop stocks from selling off. If commodities remain bearish they will begin infecting other parameters and stocks will drift lower.
For the imminent Jobs Report, the Keybot the Quant algorithm will likely perceive a 3.8% unemployment rate and higher as very bad for the stock market going forward. A rate of 3.7% or lower will not impact markets.
Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM EST. The algo wants to go long but needs the SPX to retreat about 15 points and more before the move to the short side is triggered. S&P futures are up +6 about 3 hours before the opening bell for the US regular trading session; the Jobs Report is 2 hours away. VIX 12.98 (a 12-handle making for happy bulls).The beat goes on.
11/3/19;
7:00 PM EST =
11/1/19;
9:00 AM EST =
10/31/19;
7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
10/31/19;
9:48 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long
10/29/19;
10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +74
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