Friday, September 11, 2020


Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. The SPX drops almost -100 points intraday. Keybot prints 7 numbers in the Thursday session. Bears remain in control of the market direction with the algo number 30 points below the signal line.

Utilities failed out of the gate on Thursday. UTIL was at the 818 palindrome at 3:30 PM EST Wednesday afternoon and tumbles to 796. This is serious business. Utes tell you if a pull back in the markets is garden-variety selling, or, if it is something more deadly that will linger for weeks and months ahead. Currently, the 0's and 1's say the stock market is likely in serious trouble. Bulls need UTIL above 827 next week so watch to see if they can rally the sector. For the week of 9/21/20, UTIL must be above 793 to help the bulls. If UTIL falls below 793 today, or next week, and trends lower, stocks may crash.

Volatility was the main show on Thursday. VIX 28.15 is the bull-bear line in the sand and volatility kept testing this level during the session. Isn't it amazing that the quant can call out these numbers before they occur? If you are not impressed, you should be. Enjoy it while the information is posted for you; someday it may not. The bears win in the end with the VIX ending at 29.71. Well look at that. As this is typed, about 4 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street for the Friday session, S&P futures are up +33 with the VIX at 28.20. The bulls are pushing but this is not good enough. Bulls need VIX below 28.15 and to remain below if they want to rally stocks.

Bears need VIX to remain above 28.15 and UTIL to remain below 807 for today. Bears need SOX below 2132 and XLF below 24.51. Thus, bears want higher volatility and lower utes, chips and banks.

Bulls need VIX to drop below 28.15 and remain below and they are pushing for that as this message is typed. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Bulls need UTIL above 807 for today. Higher commodities would also help bulls if GTX moves above 1721. Bulls need SOX to remain above 2132 and XLF to remain above 24.51. Thus, bulls need lower volatility and stronger utes, commodities, semiconductors and financials. If 2 of the 3 parameters (VIX, UTIL, GTX) turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 3426, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If any 1 parameter flips bullish consider the imminent turn to the upside to be in play. Bulls want to stay at the party a little longer but bears have different plans. Watch vol.

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST =

9/10/20; 1:45 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36
9/10/20; 1:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +38
9/10/20; 10:51 AM EST = +6; signal line is +40
9/10/20; 10:43 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
9/10/20; 10:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +43
9/10/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +44
9/10/20; 9:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:38 AM EST = +22; signal line is +46

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