Sunday, September 6, 2020


Keybot the Quant remains short as Americans enjoy the Labor Day holiday weekend. US markets are closed on Monday and reopen for trading on Tuesday morning. Bulls need stronger utilities and lower volatility to stabilize the stock market. Bears need to maintain lower utilities, higher volatility and send commodities lower to continue the market damage.

Bulls need UTIL above 806.92; call it 807 so it easy to remember (now at 804). If UTIL pops above 807, the stock market will stabilize and stop falling. Bulls then need to drive UTIL above 827 by Friday at 4 PM EST or there will be trouble.

The stock market selling will stop on a dime if the VIX falls below 28.49 (starting the week at 30.75). Bulls will throw confetti since the selling would end.

Bears need UTIL to remain below 807, if so, the caution notation will be dropped from the title line. Bears need UTIL under 8 hundo and then under 793. Serious damage will occur to stocks if UTIL trails lower and fails at 793. If UTIL then ventures lower and loses the 750-760 area, it is over for the stock market and it may go into crash mode.

Bears need VIX to remain above 28.49. If so, stocks will remain soggy and maintain a downward bias going forward. Bears would also benefit from GTX (commodities) dropping below 1722 (now at 1737). Stocks will take a strong dip lower if GTX fails. This is dollar dependent.

The US market begins trading on Tuesday. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers in the week ahead. If UTIL pops above 807, stocks stabilize, and if VIX drops below 28.49, the bulls are fine going forward. However, if UTIL keeps trailing lower from 804 and VIX remains above 28.49, there is sustainable trouble ahead for stocks. If GTX 1722 is lost, stocks will drop like rocks. The bulls are hoping that Everything's Gonna Work Out Right, but, sometimes it does not.

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +51
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +51

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.