STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the utilities trap door opens and a big sucking sound is heard. Hopefully, yinz had your helmets on. The stock market works itself into frenzy, it builds, it builds, and then the crescendo. The bears are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 33 points below the signal line. February ends and March begins.

The failure in the utilities is serious business. It tells you whether the pullback in stocks, that should begin anytime now, has long-lasting legs, or not. The failure of UTIL at the 829-ish level is a huge stake through the heart of the US stock market and forecasts major downside in the weeks and months forward. Bulls need utes to recover pronto.

The bulls and bears have drawn the lines in the sand for the war ahead. The bears take stocks lower with weaker retail stocks (think AMZN), weaker utilities and higher volatility is their general. The bulls are trying to stop the carnage with stronger chips, stronger banks and stronger copper is their general.

Bears need SOX below 2985 and the stock market takes another leg lower. Bears need XLF below 30.50 and that will cause a selloff in equities. Bears need CPER below 23.00 to cause market mayhem. SOX is at 3068 so focus on that as a key market signal for Monday. Chips in general will dictate the path forward. If semiconductors are weak pre-market, bears are going to slash. Bulls will be happy if they see buoyant semi's.

Bulls need VIX below 24.20 to signal a stop to the stock market selling. Bulls need RTH above 159 and UTIL above 821. Bulls likely need at least 2 of the 3 parameters to flip the stock market long. 

It appears to be a game of chips versus volatility; bears need to stab semi's in the belly while bulls need to tackle Uncle Vix and keep him down with their jackboots on his throat.

Now we see what the bears got. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +52
2/25/21; 11:52 AM EST = +18; signal line is +53
2/25/21; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +54
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The bears are in charge with the algo number 5 points below the signal line. Only three parameters matter; volatility, retail stocks and utilities.

Bears need VIX above 24.14 and stocks will fall apart. If UTIL loses 821.49, the stock market will go into free fall. Crash helmets are required.

Bulls need RTH above 159.57 and the upside stock market party is on. The selling in equities will immediately stop. If RTH moves above 159.57, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 3929 trending higher, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX begins at 3925 so bulls only need 4 or 5 points in the futures.

It is a very fascinating juncture on top of all the odd price action already occurring the last couple months and more. These are special times and one of these days may be a very special day. It is a game of pennies with the parameters so either side can win in tomorrow's (Thursday) trade. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. 

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:41 AM EST = +34; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:16 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 8:50 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short this morning at SPX 3849 after volatility spikes higher. Retail stocks add extra downside fuel but by the end of the day volatility drops so stocks pop. The bears are in control of stock market direction but the algo number is only 4 measly points below the signal line. Bears will have to do better than that.

Bears need VIX above 24.17 or they got buptkis. Bears will also create carnage if UTIL loses 821.50 and/or SOX below 2985.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks and the selling will be over. Bulls need RTH above 159.77 to signal the all-clear for equities.

The battle is volatility versus retail stocks. If VIX pops above 24.17, the downside selling begins in force. If SOX loses 2985, the bottom falls out. If RTH moves above 159.77, bulls are fine and stocks will recover.

On the last trade, the algo program gains +2% and the actual trading gains +4%. On the year, which is only 7 weeks old, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up +3%. The quant program is up +5% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10%. Quick, Harry, pull the plug for Keybot out of the wall. That's +10% so let's go to the beach for the next 10 months. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining n the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Powell testifies before the House tomorrow; he flapped dovish wings today as expected and saved the stock market off the lows. The RTH is basically Scamazon stock so watch VIX from 3 AM EST on and see where AMZN is at pre-market and these two will tell you the story for hump day. AMZN is down marginally in late trading this evening.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51; go short 3849; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.9%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +9.5%)
2/23/21; 4:03 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
2/22/21; 8:39 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
2/22/21; 7:35 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47
2/22/21; 3:06 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +43
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +42
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40
2/12/21; 12:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +38
2/12/21; 12:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +36
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +34
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33
2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +31
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 10:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 3:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:43 AM EST = +38; signal line is +30
2/2/21; 11:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:17 AM EST = +38; signal line is +32
2/2/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 1 point below the signal line so the robot is in position to flip short as long as all the internal parameters latch after the opening bell. If the SPX drops below 3875, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -14 with the VIX at 24.53.

VIX 24.17 is the bull/bear line in the sand. It tells you the market story today. The bulls need VIX below 24.17 to regain control of the stock market. Bears win big if the VIX remains above 24.17.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and HD just laid an earnings egg (price down). Bears need RTH below 159.80 and price is only 34 pennies away. RTH turning bearish will guarantee sustainable bearishness ahead.

Did you see the high drama with utilities yesterday? UTIL falls to test the critical 821.50 support, but bounces. The stock market could have crashed if it had failed and this is back on the table today. Expect at least a significant leg lower in stocks if UTIL 821.50 fails.

Bulls need lower volatility. Bears need SPX below 3875 to flip the model short which is on tap in the futures. A gap-down is not good for bears since it may trigger a timer that will not allow the quant to flip bearish for about 90 minutes.

It looks good for bears but Fed Chairman Powell speaks in a couple hours and he just picked-up his dove suit at the cleaners. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 4:03 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
2/22/21; 8:39 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
2/22/21; 7:35 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in these historic stock market times. The week is off to an active start with the quant already printing two numbers. There must be excitement occurring under the surface. The bulls are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 17 points above the signal line.

VIX 24.24 is the bull/bear line in the sand. VIX is trading at 24-ish now after popping earlier. Bears need VIX above 24.24 to create market trouble. Bulls win if VIX remains sub 24.24. If stocks sell off but the VIX does not move above 24.24, the bears got nothing and stocks will turn around and rally.

Bears need UTIL below 820 which may send the stock market into free fall. Bears need RTH below 159.50 which will exacerbate a sell off.

Bulls need higher utilities and to send UTIL above 911 which is a tall ask.

Watch to see if the VIX jogs above and below the key 24.24 level. If this occurs 2 or 3 times today, that is a signal telling you that the stock market is ready to head south and the robot is likely getting ready to flip short.

If VIX simply moves above 24.24 creating market turmoil, watch RTH and UTIL. If either one of them turn bearish as well, any 2 of these 3 parameters would do, Keybot will likely flip short.  If any 1 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be on the table.

The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow morning and the other on Friday morning. S&P futures are down -28 with the VIX at 24.00 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell on the East Coast.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47
2/22/21; 3:06 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +43
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +42
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the epic stock market action continues. The quant has not printed any numbers as yet this week and the pre-scheduled number is tomorrow. The bulls are feeling good about the stock market comfortably ahead by 23 points. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3950.43.

The quant is tracking three key parameters that would help bears; UTIL 820, RTH 159.10 and VIX 24.22. If any one of the three fail, you will notice substantive selling in the stock market. If 2 of the 3 fail, consider the imminent turn to the bear side to be in play and if the SPX then drops below 3924, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins at 3933 and futures are flat. VIX is at 21.17. If UTIL 820 fails, the stock market may crash.

The bulls need UTIL above 882 to prove that they can take stocks higher.

2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3937.23 and all-time record closing high at 3934.83.

The quant is tracking utes, volatility, retail stocks and copper. Lower copper will help bears.

The bulls need stronger utilities. Bulls need UTIL above 881.76 and this number is in play all week. US stocks are not trading today due to the Presidents Day holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow morning. UTIL begins at 857.10. On Friday, UTIL lost the 858 palindrome creating the stock market weakness. During the last 65-minute trading block, the Fed saved the day jamming volatility lower sending stocks to the moon for a record finish, otherwise, stocks would have fell apart into the closing bell.

Bears can turn the tables on the bulls with UTIL below 821, VIX above 24.55 and/or RTH below 159. UTIL 821 is extremely important; if it fails, the US stock market may crash. VIX has a 19-handle so bears got some work to do to boost volatility higher. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the caution flag to be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX then falls below 3906 trending lower, Keybot the Quant would likely flip short.

UTIL 882, UTIL 821, VIX 24.55 and RTH 159 are all that matters. You do not even have to watch the stock market. Simply watch these four parameters to determine the path ahead for equities. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning. The bulls want to rock 'n roll all night, and party every day.

2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and has been quiet all week but springs into life this afternoon.  UTIL failed at the 858 palindrome. This creates the stock market sogginess. And it is a strong failure. UTIL 821 is a trap-door in the stock market; if 821 fails, the US stock market may crash. This will be fun on tap next week. Markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

Bears need higher volatility if they want to growl. Bears need VIX above 24.55.

The SPX all-time record high this week is 3931.50.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40
2/12/21; 12:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +38
2/12/21; 12:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +36
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +34
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the quant is quiet all week long, so far. The bears are sleeping. The algo is tracking volatility and utilities. Bears need VIX above 24.63 (now at 21.666) which would immediately halt the stock market rally.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3931.50 on Wednesday, 2/10/21 and new all-time record closing high at 3915.59 on Monday, 2/8/21.

Bears need UTIL below 858 (now at 871). For next week, the bulls need UTIL above 882 so it is going to have to start making a move towards this goal post. UTIL must be above 882 by 4 PM EST tomorrow, otherwise, it tells you that stocks will be weak come Monday. If utes rally today and tomorrow, it proves that the bulls got game. If utes languish today and tomorrow and begin slumping over, like Aunt Mildred after she eats too much cake, the rally is likely over. If UTIL falls through the 858 palindrome, the stock market rally is definitely over.

The bulls are in control. These are epic times. The price action remains erratic and unstable. Watch VIX 24.63 and UTIL 858 since they are the two rudders steering the stock market ship today.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears jump into the ring this morning and promptly run head first into the bulls fist knocking them unconscious. The bulls walk to victory to begin the week and remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 47 points above the signal line. Stocks run euphorically higher.

The quant is tracking utes and volatility, and copper, as the three key parameters impacting market direction currently. All three are in the bull camp, hence, the US stock market, the S&P 500 Index, prints a new all-time record high at 3915.77 and a new all-time record closing high at 3915.59 today, Monday, 2/8/21.

Bears need UTIL below the 858 palindrome, the VIX above 24.60 and copper futures down about -3.5%. Any one of these turning bearish will immediately stop the stock market rally and send equities sideways. Two of them will create selling action in stocks. All three turning bearish will send the stock market strongly lower and likely flip the model short.

That is a big drop to ask for with copper but you never know. UTIL and VIX may turn bearish over the next day or two. Pay attention to UTIL 858 which would tell you the upside in stocks is likely over.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33
2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls pump stocks higher on a weak jobs number, progress on the fiscal stimulus bill and JNJ vaccine happy talk. The jobs market has finally stabilized after the March/April 2020 shock. Obviously, it is not happy times for the 10 million unemployed, and 10 million gig and part-time workers that are sitting on the sidelines, watching the wealthy class become richer.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 33 points above the signal line and that margin will likely become even larger out of the gate tomorrow. For the week ahead, utilities, volatility and copper are key.

Bulls need UTIL above 857.77 this week to create stock market strength. UTIL ends last week at 872 so this is going to help create additional underlying market strength after the opening bell on Monday. For the following week, the 858 will be meaningless and replaced with 881.76. Thus, bears need UTIL under 858 pronto or they will be slapped around. By the end of the week, the bulls must push UTIL above 882 to guarantee sustainable stock market joy going forward. Utes will tell you a lot this week with price starting in between these two key levels. Bears will be happy sub 858 while bulls are ecstatic if UTIL moves above 882.

Bears need VIX above 24.84 (now at 20.87). Bears need CPER below 21.76 (now at 22.45).

The bulls are singing songs and carrying on without a care in the world. Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls say let the good times roll.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +31
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The quant has been active this week so something may be going on. The bulls came to play pumping copper and smashing volatility sending stocks higher.

The bulls are flexing their muscles but to prove they can take stocks higher they must push UTIL above 894 (now at 860) a formidable task.

Bears need higher volatility, lower copper, lower retail stocks, lower banks and lower chips. Bears need VIX above 24.96 (now trading at 23.14) with S&P futures up +3. Futures and vol are higher so one of them is wrong (either futures drop to prove volatility correct or vol drops to prove futures correct). Bears need CPER below 21.76 (now at 21.99). Bears need a -1.1% drop in copper futures but copper is sitting flat.

Bears likely need both vol and copper to turn bearish, and that can easily happen since the numbers are dancing near the bull-bear lines in the sand, and for the SPX to drop below 3817, for Keybot the Quant to flip short. If either parameter turns bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line.

The SPX begins the Thursday session at 3830. The 3848 is an important resistance level which would tell you that the bulls have legs. Watch copper and vol; they will tell you what you need to know.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 10:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 3:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and prints 5 numbers today. The quant is champing at the bit to flip back to the short side but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The odd price behavior continues. Copper fails into the bear camp but stocks rally; historic weirdness. The VIX comes down to test Keybot's bull-bear line in the sand but could not move below. Tomorrow will tell the tale. It is a knock-down drag-out bull-bear battle.

Keybot the Quant wants to flip short and will likely do so if the SPX falls below 3792 trending lower. SPX begins hump day at 3826 so bears will need to see S&P futures down -34 points and they will be good to go.

Copper and volatility will immediately tell you the story for hump day. Both are in the bear camp but only by pennies. The bulls need CPER above 21.76 and/or VIX below 25.02. The bulls will celebrate good times with one of these and two would be an upside orgy for the record books.

If both CPER and VIX remain in the bear camp, stocks are going to fall apart.

Watch SPX 3792, CPER 21.76 and VIX 25.02.The direction of copper futures overnight will tell you the story on the red metal and volatility begins trading at 3 AM EST.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:43 AM EST = +38; signal line is +30
2/2/21; 11:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:17 AM EST = +38; signal line is +32
2/2/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp Monday afternoon at SPX 3779. Banks and retail stocks push the stock market higher and their jog moves are enough to push the algo into the bull camp. The quant is 4 points above the signal line. The same characters are in play.

Bulls win going forward if they push the VIX below 25.24. VIX is trading now, in the early morning on the East Coast at 27.45 with S&P futures +33. A sustainable rally will be confirmed if VIX drops below 25.24. If bulls are unable to push VIX below 25.24, stocks will roll over and sell off.

Bears need to attack banks and retail stocks reversing the Monday joy. Bears need XLF below 29.09 and RTH below 157.74. Everything is walking a tightrope.

Bears need weaker copper and must push CPER below 21.73. Yesterday, the bears were almost there but then the bulls jumped on retail stocks pumping them to heaven and copper followed. 

So the stage is set. Bulls win big if VIX drops below 25.24. Bears will stop the upside rally if XLF drops below 29.09, RTH below 157.74 and/or CPER below 21.73. Any downside in the stock market can be gauged by these three numbers.

Velly intalesting. Bears need about a -0.8% drop in copper futures and she is teasing right now. If any of the three parameters XLF, RTH or CPER turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 3726, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side. That is a formidable task for today. Bears may try to lay the groundwork today and give it a go tomorrow. If the bulls succeed with lower vol, they will probably maintain elevated stocks for a few days.

On the last trade, that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading each gain about a percent. On the year thus far, the SPX benchmark index is up a percent. The Keybot the Quant program is up +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up almost +6% so far in 2021. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the leveraged 2x ETF's.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)
2/1/21; 1:52 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
2/1/21; 12:12 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
2/1/21; 11:47 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
2/1/21; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +38
2/1/21; 10:56 AM EST = +6; signal line is +39
2/1/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +6; signal line is +43
1/29/21; 12:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is +45
1/29/21; 12:19 PM EST = +22; signal line is +47
1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +48
1/28/21; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +49
1/27/21; 3:45 PM EST = +22; signal line is +50
1/27/21; 3:30 PM EST = +6; signal line is +51
1/27/21; 3:28 PM EST = +22; signal line is +53
1/27/21; 3:19 PM EST = +38; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 2:22 PM EST = +22; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 5:37 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
1/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:40 PM EST = +51; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:28 PM EST = +37; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 11:49 AM EST = +51; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:07 AM EST = +51; signal line is +60; go short 3812; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +1.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2021 = +4.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Bulls are flexing their muscles but it is just a bunch of posing so far. Banks jump into the bull camp so that provides the upside juice. XLF is above 29.09; bears need it back below as soon as possible.

RTH remains bearish and VIX is over 31 for most of the morning; 30.37 now. The bull move is not impressive but the day is young.

Meanwhile, bears stealthily slap copper in the face and roll it in the alley. Bears need CPER below 21.72 and price is only pennies away at 21.84. This is about a -0.6% drop in copper futures and the latest print is down -0.3%. Copper weakened after this morning's message. If copper fails, stocks will be in trouble.

The SPX rallies 43 points but the internals are not agreeing with the joy so far. Bulls begin verifying the rally if RTH moves above 157.65. 

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +6; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 37 points below the signal line. The bears growled into the weekend but the bulls are back in town this morning with S&P futures up +32.  Banks and retail stocks create the mayhem Friday afternoon so those would be the two that would reverse if the bulls got game.

Bears need weaker copper to create more stock market negativity. A -0.9% drop in copper futures would do it but copper is rallying up +0.4% so the red metal will need to drop -1.3% from the current price to provide bear fuel.

Bears need UTIL below 822.43 which is a trap-door for stocks. Brutal mayhem occurs in the stock market if this level fails.

Bulls need XLF above 29.09 and RTH above 157.77 to try and right the ship. These may be doable considering this morning's joy. Congress is trying to reach agreement on a stimulus bill so futures are higher after the negotiators share a pizza on the weekend. At least all humans can agree on one thing; pizza.

Thus, if banks and retail stocks turn bullish (watch AMZN), consider the caution flag to be in play. If the VIX drops below 25.00, the bulls are going to celebrate with a big move higher and the quant will likely flip long. VIX is trading now at 31.51.

If stocks rally today, the first day of February trading, catapulting to the stratosphere, it does not mean buptkis unless the VIX drops below 25.00. The stock market can rally and look strong all it wants, but if the VIX does not drop below 25.00, stocks will clutch their chest and fall to their knees, and eventually keel over, going forward.

Bulls win with XLF 29.09, RTH 157.77 and VIX 25.00. Tic-tac-toe. Keybot will probably flip long immediately if this happens (all 3).

Bears win with about a -1% drop in copper futures and UTIL under 822.43 which would create a disastrous outcome for the stock market. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Tomorrow is Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil is only a stone's throw away from the quant's hideaway. We find out if there is 6 more weeks of winter, or not.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +6; signal line is +43
1/29/21; 12:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is +45