STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The stock market went to Hell in a handbag late last week. Friday was ugly with the SPX dropping almost -3%. Futures are down to begin the week. China indexes crash -5% and more overnight as COVID-19 attacks Beijing. Commodities, and copper, sell off since China is the largest user of commodities on the planet.

The US stock market suffered serious internal damage. Bears are cruising with the algo number 54 points below the signal line.

Friday's carnage started with higher volatility. Fed Chairman Powell's jackboot slipped off the throat of volatility so the VIX jumps higher sinking stocks. Next, copper failed which is a biggie. If Dr Copper is sick, everyone is sick. Then, as the stock market stumbled trying to regain its footing, pow, the knockout blow is the failure in retail stocks. The SPX  falls to the mat.

The selling will continue if commodities and utilities weaken. The bulls can immediately stop the selling if they push RTH above 181.48, CPER above 28.27 and/or VIX below 23.65. Any 1 of the 3 will do.

Copper futures are trading lower. VIX is at 29.31. It looks like the bull's hopes are pinned on retail stocks while  the bears plan on beating utes and commodities with a baseball bat.

With the VIX near 30, the intraday point moves and day to day point moves will increase dramatically. Hold on as Brittany sings.

5/1/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/26/22; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +35
4/22/22; 1:39 PM EST = -19; signal line is +36
4/22/22; 10:13 AM EST = -3; signal line is +37
4/22/22; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +38
4/21/22; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +39; go short 4453; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +3.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips bearish at SPX 4453 at munch time in these fast-moving markets. Easy peasy. Bears need CPER below 28.33 and VIX above 23.46.

Bulls need NYA above 16700, SPX above 4462 and/or XLF above 38.12. Any port in a storm will do so any one parameter flipping back to the bull camp will stop the stock market selling. If these three remain bearish, however, there will be Hell to pay, and VIX and CPER would create bloody carnage.

On the last trade that only ran for about 15 hours, almost triggering the whipsaw timer but it did not, the quant program gains about 1% and the actual trading 1.5%. For the year thus far, the SPX is down about -7%, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up about +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down about -3% in 2022. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. The markets are erratic and unstable so anything can happen, as Ellie sings even another whipsaw.

Pay attention to NYA 16700 and SPX 4462 since these numbers represent all the marbles for the United States stock market.

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/22; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +39; go short 4453; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +3.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -2.9%)
4/21/22; 12:08 PM EST = +41; signal line is +38
4/21/22; 10:43 AM EST = +55; signal line is +36
4/21/22; 10:17 AM EST = +71; signal line is +35
4/21/22; 9:44 AM EST = +55; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:37 AM EST = +71; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
4/20/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 3:18 PM EST = +55; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 2:42 PM EST = +41; signal line is +30
4/20/22; 12:56 PM EST = +55; signal line is +29
4/20/22; 11:18 AM EST = +39; signal line is +27
4/20/22; 10:15 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
4/20/22; 9:50 AM EST = +39; signal line is +26
4/20/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 3:59 PM EST = +27; signal line is +24
4/19/22; 3:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 9:54 AM EST = +27; signal line is +25; go long  4420; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +2.6%)(Actual results this trade = +4.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -4.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the financials dance along the bull-bear tightrope at XLF 38.15.

Bulls win big if XLF moves above 38.15 which will create many days of upside ahead.

Bears will be happy if XLF remains sub 38.15 in the bear camp, and gleeful if CPER drops below 28.30,  NYA below 16700 and/or SPX below 4462. If 1 of these 3 turn bearish stocks will be soggy. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the bear camp and if all 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling apart. Choose your Poison.

XLF 38.15, CPER 28.30, NYA 16700 and SPX 4462 are all that matter right now. They tell you the direction and magnitude of the stock market going forward. XLF is at 38.06 (bearish), CPER is at 28.55 (bullish), NYA at 16785 (bullish) and SPX at 4485 (bullish).

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/22; 10:43 AM EST = +55; signal line is +36
4/21/22; 10:17 AM EST = +71; signal line is +35
4/21/22; 9:44 AM EST = +55; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild stock market action continues. The SPX lost the critical 4462 level again but catapults back above after this morning's (Thursday) opening bell. The banks and copper are controlling stock market direction today. The quant spits out 8 numbers yesterday and already 3 more this morning.

Bulls need XLF above 38.15 to keep the rally going. XLF already flipped bullish, then bearish, today, and continues battling at 38.15 right now. It is important.

Bears need CPER below 28.30 which represents a -1.2% drop in copper futures so the red metal will have to retrace its +1.2% gain today.

The SPX is well above 4462 and NYA above 16700, critical cyclical market indicators, so the bulls are grinning like Cheshire cats while partying with a hookah smoking caterpillar. 

The banks tell the direction forward. The stock market has legs higher if XLF dances above 38.15 and higher. The bears will begin reasserting themselves if XLF cannot move above 38.15.

The bulls remains confident with the algo number 22 comfortable points above the signal line. Keep an eye on copper today.

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/22; 9:44 AM EST = +55; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:37 AM EST = +71; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
4/20/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 3:18 PM EST = +55; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 2:42 PM EST = +41; signal line is +30
4/20/22; 12:56 PM EST = +55; signal line is +29
4/20/22; 11:18 AM EST = +39; signal line is +27
4/20/22; 10:15 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
4/20/22; 9:50 AM EST = +39; signal line is +26
4/20/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 3:59 PM EST = +27; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long yesterday morning at SPX 4420. The stock market remains a coin-flip with chop suey chewing up bulls and bears alike. Lower volatility creates stock market buoyancy.

The huge decision on tap right now is the SPX teetering at 4462 the exact line in the sand that dictates a cyclical bull market ahead versus a cyclical bear. The stakes do not get any higher. Bulls win big above 4462. Bears will create bloody carnage below 4462.

Bears need the SPX to remain at 4462 or lower. Bears also need weaker copper and for futures to fall about -1.1% which may be doable today. Weaker copper must occur for stocks to drop. Bears need VIX above 23.45 but it is 3 sticks below.

Bulls need SPX above 4462 and they will shine going forward. Bulls also need NYA above 16698 which tells you if the rally has legs, or not. Bulls need stronger banks and XLF above 38.15 which would create robust stock market strength.

On the last trade that ran for almost 3 weeks, the quant program gains about +3% and the actual trading gains +4%. For the year thus far, the S&P 500 US stock market benchmark index is down -7%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is up about +3% in 2022 and the actual trading is down about -4%. Keybot exits SH and enters SSO back into the 2x ETF's as the whipsaw timer has expired.

The algo number is only 3 measly points above the signal line so it is not a ringing endorsement of the long side but that is where the robot is at right now and why the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Flip the coin. Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side especially if the SPX and copper begin falling apart with volatility spiking. Interestingly, copper futures are down -1.1% on the dot right now with futures flat.

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/22; 3:59 PM EST = +27; signal line is +24
4/19/22; 3:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 9:54 AM EST = +27; signal line is +25; go long  4420; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +2.6%)(Actual results this trade = +4.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -4.4%)
4/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
4/18/22; 10:25 AM EST = +27; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/18/22; 9:57 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
4/17/22; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +29
4/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
4/13/22; 9:41 AM EST = +27; signal line is +31
4/13/22; 8:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/13/22; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +34
4/12/22; 2:21 PM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/12/22; 9:37 AM EST = +27; signal line is +35
4/12/22; 8:37 AM EST = +11; signal line is +38
4/11/22; 3:48 PM EST = -3; signal line is +40
4/11/22; 12:03 PM EST = +11; signal line is +43
4/11/22; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46
4/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +48
4/7/22; 1:13 PM EST = +41; signal line is +50
4/7/22; 11:33 AM EST = +27; signal line is +51
4/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +52
4/6/22; 2:36 PM EST = +25; signal line is +53
4/6/22; 2:20 PM EST = +11; signal line is +54
4/6/22; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is +56
4/6/22; 1:07 PM EST = +41; signal line is +59
4/6/22; 11:51 AM EST = +25; signal line is +60
4/6/22; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is +61
4/6/22; 9:41 AM EST = +25; signal line is +61
4/5/22; 9:46 AM EST = +41; signal line is +62
4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:53 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:43 PM EST = +39; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 1:44 PM EST = +55; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 12:09 PM EST = +41; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 9:46 AM EST = +55; signal line is +65
4/1/22; 9:36 AM EST = +71; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
4/1/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +63
3/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +41; signal line is +62
3/31/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +62; go short 4530; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -4.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market rides the up and down roller coaster. The four parameters impacting stock market direction are VIX 23.87, CPER 28.27, NYA 16693 and SPX 4462. Bears need higher volatility and weaker copper to keep the negativity going. Bulls need stronger NYA and SPX indexes to prove that they can flip the quant long.

The algo number is only 4 points below the signal line so the market is a coin-flip right now. Bears need VIX above 23.87 but it is trading with a 21 handle right now. Bears need CPER below 28.27 which reflects a -1.2% drop in copper futures but they are trading up +0.2% currently.

Bulls need NYA above 16693 and SPX above 4462 and both goals are only a few points away. These two are critical cyclical stock market indicators and tell you the path ahead for stocks for weeks and months to come. Prices have been back-checking these important numbers the last few days so it is time to make a decision. The ramifications to the market are huge.

If the bulls cannot push prices above the NYA 16693 and SPX 4462, there will be Hell to pay going forward since the back tests would be successful (for bears). If the bulls push prices above these numbers, there are blue skies and rainbows ahead for next week.

The Easter weekend is here and stocks are usually bullish in front of a 3-day holiday weekend and also bullish through the full moon that will peak on Saturday for the month. Thus, the background currents favor bulls but there are other flies in the ointment. Banks are reporting earnings this morning and that will drive sentiment and dictate today's outcome.

If the bulls push either NYA above 16693 or SPX above 4462, into the bull camp, either one would do (and the SPX is above 4454 if the NYA flips bullish), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The banks are going to tell the tale today.

Bears got nothing unless the VIX runs above 23.87. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. Happy Easter.

4/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
4/13/22; 9:41 AM EST = +27; signal line is +31
4/13/22; 8:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/13/22; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +34
4/12/22; 2:21 PM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/12/22; 9:37 AM EST = +27; signal line is +35
4/12/22; 8:37 AM EST = +11; signal line is +38
4/11/22; 3:48 PM EST = -3; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side with the algo number 43 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising but the market can change at the drop of a hat these days. The SPX loses the critical 12-month MA at 4458-4463 ushering in extreme weakness. Copper also fails and volatility jumps into the bear camp. Fed Chairman Powell's jackboot slips off the throat of volatility and, like trying to keep a beachball underwater, bloop, the buoyant VIX ball pops higher with vengeance when your hands slip.

Thus, SPX 4460-ish, CPER 28.23 and VIX 23.95 jump into the bear camp and need to be reversed if the bulls want to stop the selling. Bears need RTH below 181.26 which will create further stock market weakness. Bulls need a higher SPX index, higher copper and lower vol while bears need weaker retail stocks.

Copper futures need to pop about +0.5% to jump back into the bull camp. Copper is trading up +0.9% so this is why futures and stocks are stabilizing at the flat line waiting for further direction. The VIX is trading right now at 24.35 above the 23.95 bull/bear line in the sand so stock weakness will continue unless VIX drops under 23.95. The SPX begins the Tuesday session in the US at 4413 and needs about 50 points to regain the crucial SPX 12-mth MA at 4460-ish.

You can gauge any relief rally by the SPX, CPER and VIX. The bulls likely need all 3 to flip back to the bull side for Keybot to flip long. If 1 parameter flips long, consider the caution flag out. If 2 flip bullish, the imminent turn to the long side would be in play. If all 3 flip long, the quant will likely flip long. If RTH loses 181.26, start thinking about a crash profile for the US stock market.

4/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
4/11/22; 3:48 PM EST = -3; signal line is +40
4/11/22; 12:03 PM EST = +11; signal line is +43
4/11/22; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46
4/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +48
4/7/22; 1:13 PM EST = +41; signal line is +50
4/7/22; 11:33 AM EST = +27; signal line is +51
4/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only 11 points below the signal line. Bears need the SPX below 4463, weaker retail stocks and higher volatility while bulls need a higher NYA index.

Bears need SPX below 4463, RTH below 180.45 and VIX above 24.22 to create a Highway to Hell. Bulls need the NYA above 16693 to sing O Happy Days.

If NYA moves above 16693, and the SPX is above 4504 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. For now, the caution flag is out but if NYA goes bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

SPX 4463, RTH 180.45, VIX 24.22 and NYA 16693 are the only parameters that matter to finish out the week. If SPX 4463 fails, things are going to turn very ugly and carnage is likely on tap.

4/10/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +52
4/6/22; 2:36 PM EST = +25; signal line is +53
4/6/22; 2:20 PM EST = +11; signal line is +54
4/6/22; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is +56
4/6/22; 1:07 PM EST = +41; signal line is +59
4/6/22; 11:51 AM EST = +25; signal line is +60
4/6/22; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is +61
4/6/22; 9:41 AM EST = +25; signal line is +61
4/5/22; 9:46 AM EST = +41; signal line is +62
4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:53 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:43 PM EST = +39; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 1:44 PM EST = +55; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 12:09 PM EST = +41; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 9:46 AM EST = +55; signal line is +65

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the choppy open. Bears need to push NYA back below 16690 which would create bigtime selling pressure.

Bulls need SOX above 3435 and XLF above 38.63. The NYA index, chips and banks are controlling stock market direction today. Nothing Else Matters, as Metallica sings. The stock market is a crap shoot these days.

4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/1/22; 9:46 AM EST = +55; signal line is +65
4/1/22; 9:36 AM EST = +71; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
4/1/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear camp during the final minute yesterday at SPX 4540. The stock market fell apart into the close with banks and chips failing.

Bears need weaker retail stocks to continue the negative party. Bears need RTH below 180.24. Also, if copper futures fall -2% today, that tells you the stock market is in serious trouble (currently down -0.8%).

Bulls need to pump banks, chips and the NYA higher. Bulls need XLF above 38.63, SOX above 3438 and NYA above 16690. The NYA is key since it currently calls for a cyclical bear market going forward. Bulls need all 3 to flip the quant long immediately or 2 of the 3 with the SPX above 4600 which is a tall order today.

The crazy whipsaw and choppy action may continue. On the last trade, the algo program gains +5% and is now flat on the year. The actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +7% redeeming itself from the last trade now down about -8% on the year. The S&P 500 benchmark index is down -5% on the year thus far. Q2 begins today. Keybot the Quant remains in the single 1x ETF's for another couple weeks due to the whipsaw timer activation. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH.

4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/1/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +63
3/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +41; signal line is +62
3/31/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +62; go short 4540; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -4.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.4%)
3/31/22; 3:36 PM EST = +71; signal line is +59
3/29/22; 10:00 AM EST = +87; signal line is +56
3/28/22; 12:55 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52
3/28/22; 11:52 AM EST = +74; signal line is +49
3/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +46
3/25/22; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +43
3/24/22; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +40
3/24/22; 10:38 AM EST = +74; signal line is +37
3/23/22; 1:16 PM EST = +58; signal line is +34
3/23/22; 10:55 AM EST = +74; signal line is +31
3/23/22; 9:38 AM EST = +58; signal line is +29
3/23/22; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +26
3/22/22; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +24
3/21/22; 3:59 PM EST = +74; signal line is +21
3/21/22; 1:37 PM EST = +44; signal line is +17
3/21/22; 1:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +14
3/21/22; 12:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +13
3/21/22; 12:36 PM EST = +58; signal line is +10
3/21/22; 11:27 AM EST = +74; signal line is +7
3/21/22; 10:46 AM EST = +58; signal line is +5
3/21/22; 9:52 AM EST = +44; signal line is +2
3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +0
3/18/22; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is -3
3/18/22; 12:56 PM EST = +46; signal line is -5
3/17/22; 12:38 PM EST = +30; signal line is -7
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is -8
3/16/22; 3:48 PM EST = +14; signal line is -9
3/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -11; go long 4314; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -5.3%)(Actual results this trade = -6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -14.9%)