STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side with the algo number 43 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising but the market can change at the drop of a hat these days. The SPX loses the critical 12-month MA at 4458-4463 ushering in extreme weakness. Copper also fails and volatility jumps into the bear camp. Fed Chairman Powell's jackboot slips off the throat of volatility and, like trying to keep a beachball underwater, bloop, the buoyant VIX ball pops higher with vengeance when your hands slip.

Thus, SPX 4460-ish, CPER 28.23 and VIX 23.95 jump into the bear camp and need to be reversed if the bulls want to stop the selling. Bears need RTH below 181.26 which will create further stock market weakness. Bulls need a higher SPX index, higher copper and lower vol while bears need weaker retail stocks.

Copper futures need to pop about +0.5% to jump back into the bull camp. Copper is trading up +0.9% so this is why futures and stocks are stabilizing at the flat line waiting for further direction. The VIX is trading right now at 24.35 above the 23.95 bull/bear line in the sand so stock weakness will continue unless VIX drops under 23.95. The SPX begins the Tuesday session in the US at 4413 and needs about 50 points to regain the crucial SPX 12-mth MA at 4460-ish.

You can gauge any relief rally by the SPX, CPER and VIX. The bulls likely need all 3 to flip back to the bull side for Keybot to flip long. If 1 parameter flips long, consider the caution flag out. If 2 flip bullish, the imminent turn to the long side would be in play. If all 3 flip long, the quant will likely flip long. If RTH loses 181.26, start thinking about a crash profile for the US stock market.

4/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
4/11/22; 3:48 PM EST = -3; signal line is +40
4/11/22; 12:03 PM EST = +11; signal line is +43
4/11/22; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46
4/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +48
4/7/22; 1:13 PM EST = +41; signal line is +50
4/7/22; 11:33 AM EST = +27; signal line is +51
4/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +52