STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 4017 yesterday but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the short side this morning. The choppy slop continues. UTIL tries to regain 939 but fails which portends very bad things for the stock market going forward. Keep watching it.

The price action is a mess with different parameters flying-off in one direction only to reverse on a dime and run the other way. The quant prints 9 numbers to begin the week including the flip to the long side so the circus continues.

If the SPX simply trends lower and drops below 3974, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. This is a -8 point drop but S&P futures are up +3 about 3 hours before the opening bell.

Out of the gate yesterday, utes failed but the bulls pumped the banks higher to counteract the negativity. Banks failed going into the closing bell and will tell you a lot about stock market direction. Bulls need XLF above 35.69 (now at 35.65 only pennies away). This would take the potential flip to the short side off the table. The SPX moving above 4011 will also embolden the bulls. XLF is at 35.70 in the pre-market.

Bears simply need the SPX to drift lower and drop below 3974 to flip the model short. Weaker copper will help as well as higher volatility. Bears need CPER below 24.33 and VIX above 21.65. Bears need a -0.5% drop in copper futures that are currently up +0.7%. VIX is at 20.90 so the bulls are comfortable with the way Tuesday is beginning with copper, volatility and banks going their way.

On the last trade that only lasted a couple days, the quant program and actual trading each lose a percent round-tripping from the previous trade between SPX 3977 and 4017. For the year thus far, the SPX is up about +5%. The quant program is up a percent and the actual trading generated by the algo is flat on the year. Two months of trading is already in the bag. Keybot exits SH and enters DIA. 

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/28/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/27/23; 3:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 12:20 PM EST = -1; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:42 AM EST = -17; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:39 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:18 AM EST = +29; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:09 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10; go long 4017; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.5%)
2/27/23; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/26/23; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/24/23; 3:59 PM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/24/23; 3:45 PM EST = -33; signal line is -8
2/24/23; 3:38 PM EST = -17; signal line is -6
2/24/23; 3:11 PM EST = -1; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
2/24/23; 2:09 PM EST = -17; signal line is -3
2/24/23; 1:27 PM EST = -33; signal line is -1
2/24/23; 12:58 PM EST = -47; signal line is +2
2/24/23; 11:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is +5
2/24/23; 10:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is +7
2/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is +11
2/24/23; 8:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +14
2/23/23; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +15
2/23/23; 2:26 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
2/23/23; 2:05 PM EST = -17; signal line is +18
2/23/23; 12:29 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
2/23/23; 11:53 AM EST = -15; signal line is +22
2/23/23; 11:43 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24; go short 3977; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.5%)