Thursday, March 2, 2023

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 3955.  The whipsaw markets continue. Whip it good. It is like riding a bucking bronco. The bulls pumped the banks to try and stabilize the stock market but the banks failed again yesterday creating overall stock market negativity.

Note that the last two flips both occurred at 10:09 AM EST. That is more wild rare stuff occurring with the algorithm. Obviously, you do not need hit over the head with a 2x4 (a piece of lumber) to know that you should watch 10:09 AM EST going forward.

UTIL GOES SUB 900 TO 891. IT'S OVER. TAKE THIS SIGNAL SERIOUSLY, FOLKS. GOING FORWARD, EXTREMELY BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE US STOCK MARKET.

What now? More choppy slop? Watch banks and volatility. Bulls need XLF above 35.69 pronto starting the Thursday session at 35.60. XLF is trading down at 35.56 in the pre-market.

Bears need VIX above 21.63 to prove they got game. Higher volatility would play off the ominous utilities and likely send stocks to Hades. VIX is trading at 20.91 right now. VIX above 21.63 will tell you that the stock market ugliness has begun.

Bulls win big with XLF above 35.69 and bears win big with VIX above 21.63. One of them will flinch and tell you the answer ahead. 

On the last whipsaw trade that ran a couple days, the algo program and actual trading each lose about a percent and a half. Humorously, the quant is going in the wrong direction. On the year thus far with 2 months already in the bag, the benchmark SPX is up +3%, the quant program is flat and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a percent; call it all flat. Keybot exits DIA and enters PSQ remaining in the single ETF's because of the ongoing chop suey.

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/1/23; 1:29 PM EST = -17; signal line is -13
3/1/23; 12:45 PM EST = -1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
3/1/23; 10:09 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12; go short 3955; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.1%)
3/1/23; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/28/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -1; signal line is -12
2/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -1; signal line is -12
2/28/23; 9:42 AM EST = -1; signal line is -12
2/27/23; 3:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 12:20 PM EST = -1; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:42 AM EST = -17; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:39 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:18 AM EST = +29; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:09 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10; go long 4017; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.5%)

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