Wednesday, March 29, 2023

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the choppy slop continues. The bulls remain in control of stock market direction with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. This is nothing to write home about since the sideways chop may continue.

The quant is tracking VIX 21.02, SPX 3960 and NYA 15065 as the key parameters controlling market direction currently. Bears pushed lower yesterday sending the VIX above 21 and SPX below 3960 but if you blinked you missed it. The bulls fight back quickly recovering sending the VIX back below 21.02 and the SPX above 3960. S&P futures are up +30 points this early morning on the East Coast so the bulls are puffing their chests out feeling pretty good about the path forward.

NYA 15065 will be the big test today. As stocks rally, watch to see if NYA 15065 is taken out to the upside. If so, the bulls are going to rally big going forward. If the NYA comes up and bumps its head on 15065 and fails lower again, that is likely indicating that stocks will begin a downward path.

Bulls need to keep VIX below 21.02 (now at 19.30) and SPX above 3960 and push NYA above 15065 to begin an orgy of upside buying.

Bears need to stop NYA 15065 from occurring today and at the same time push the VIX above 21.02 and the SPX below 3960 to create market carnage. If VIX or SPX turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses 3952, the model will likely flip short.

4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/23; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -33
3/28/23; 2:21 PM EST = -32; signal line is -34
3/28/23; 1:46 PM EST = -46; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains long
3/28/23; 1:40 PM EST = -32; signal line is -36
3/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -36
3/27/23; 1:28 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38; go long 3984; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.3%)

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