STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Friday at SPX 4197 during the AI orgy. It is more whipsaw choppy slop. Volatility and retail stocks (watch Scamazon) lead the way up for the bulls just as they led the way down for the bears.

It is notable and a negative that the NYA index, despite the euphoric party on Friday, was unable to move above 15139. Bulls got nothing unless this occurs.

The bears need VIX above 19.20 and RTH below 164.40. Either one will stop the rally in stocks and reintroduce negativity. One of these three parameters will flinch and tell you the path ahead. Bulls win big with NYA 15139. Bears win big with VIX 19.20 and RTH 164.40.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses -1.7% and the actual trading loses about a half percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is rewarding the bulls up over +9% goosed by the AI orgy. The quant program is down -2% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a percent this year.

The NYA, volatility and retail stocks tell the story when trading resumes on Tuesday after the Memorial Day holiday. Thanks to all those that sacrificed themselves in wars. Cher knows how to salute the boys.

6/4/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/2/23; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/30/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is -25
5/26/23; 10:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -25; go long 4197; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)
5/26/23; 10:00 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
5/26/23; 5:35 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
5/26/23; 3:38 AM EST = -49; signal line is -23
5/25/23; 1:29 PM EST = -35; signal line is -22
5/25/23; 1:03 PM EST = -49; signal line is -21
5/25/23; 12:20 PM EST = -35; signal line is -20
5/25/23; 11:33 AM EST = -49; signal line is -19
5/25/23; 10:39 AM EST = -35; signal line is -18
5/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = -49; signal line is -17
5/25/23; 8:42 AM EST = -33; signal line is -15
5/25/23; 8:03 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
5/24/23; 10:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -15
5/24/23; 10:47 AM EST = -49; signal line is -14
5/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
5/24/23; 9:30 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12; go short 4128; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4128 after volatility spikes higher. Retail stocks fail but recover so they must be watched closely. NYA fails which is a major stock market negative but investors are happy this morning on the NVDA AI hype.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 18 points below the signal line. The quant is identifying a battle between NYA and VIX versus RTH and SOX.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and chips to continue the negativity. Bears need RTH below 164.37 and SOX below 3057. Amazon is in RTH and with the NVDA hype, retail stocks may float higher today.

Bulls need VIX back below 19.25 and NYA above 15138. Interestingly, in real-time, the VIX teases down to 19.25 but recovers back to 19.36. If stocks are supposed to rally big today on tech hype, VIX will drop below 19.25. If stocks rally but the VIX does not drop below 19.25, the rally is phony and will die. More importantly, watch NYA 15138 since it tells you a lot about the path ahead for US stocks on a ST and LT basis.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the algo program and actual trading lose a smidgeon. On the year, the SPX is up +7.5%, the quant program is flat and the actual trading generated by the model is up +1.4%. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters DOG.

Since VIX is teasing the 19.25 bull/bear line in the sand, watch it closely since it tells you which way stocks are going (inversely).

5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/24/23; 10:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -15
5/24/23; 10:47 AM EST = -49; signal line is -14
5/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
5/24/23; 9:30 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12; go short 4128; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.4%)
5/24/23; 6:02 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
5/24/23; 4:09 AM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/24/23; 3:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/19/23; 11:17 AM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/19/23; 9:40 AM EST = +11; signal line is -11
5/17/23; 12:32 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12; go long 4137; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after the Tuesday selloff. The algo has not printed any numbers thus far this week. Interestingly,. XLF ran higher to the 32.72 line in the sand and failed lower again. The bulls are unable to bring the banks into their camp.

RTH drops to the 164.40 line in the sand but does not fall through. VIX pops to the 19.20 line in the sand but drops lower again. NYA falls towards the 15140 critical line in the sand that will usher in major stock market selling. NYA price is at 15172 only 32 points away. The bears are unable to bring the retail stocks, volatility and NYA index into their camp.

The drama continues as the corrupt politicians try to work out a deal on the US debt. Does the choppy stock market slop continue? Uh-huh as Jade sings.

Bulls win big with XLF 32.72. Bears win big with RTH 164.40, VIX 19.20 and/or NYA 15172.

A failure in NYA ushers in bigtime stock market pain should it occur. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish and the SPX drops below 4143, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market idles along waiting for a debt ceiling resolution. The algo number is only 7 points above the signal line so the bulls are not convincing markets that up is the path forward.

XLF comes up to test the critical 32.77 bull/bear line in the sand and fails again. If the bulls are strong, you will see XLF launch above 32.77. Each day XLF remains below 32.77 creates more sogginess and negativity going forward. If you are riding the bullish wave, you need XLF 32.77. If you do not see it, think twice about the long side. The banks dictate if the bulls got game going forward.

Bears need NYA below 15145 which will usher in serious market negativity. Bears need RTH below 1674.50 and this depends a lot on Scamazon. Bears need VIX above 19.20 to drop the hammer on the bulls. Any 1 of the 3 parameters flipping into the bear camp will position Keybot the Quant to go short and if the SPX drops below 4180 trending lower, that would likely seal the deal. Thus, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

If you see NYA below 15145 and VIX above 19.20, run for your life if long the stock market because stocks will fall dramatically.

For now, stocks remain buoyant as the debt ceiling drama plays out in America's failing crony capitalism system breathing its last breaths of life. Bulls need stronger banks while bears need weaker NYA index and retail stocks and higher volatility. The beat goes on.

5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/19/23; 11:17 AM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/19/23; 9:40 AM EST = +11; signal line is -11
5/17/23; 12:32 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12; go long 4137; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the banks fail to prove that up is the path ahead. XLF comes up to bump its head exactly on the 32.78 that Keybot the Quant identified and called out ahead of time. Do not forget to support the blogs, especially all of you cheapskates, to continue the information.

XLF 32.79 is the bull/bear line in the sand today that tells you if the rally is real, or not. XLF begins at 32.74 only a nickel away from a major bull victory that will guarantee upside ahead for stocks. If XLF jumps into the bull camp, the imminent turn notation can be removed from the title line. In the premarket, XLF is trading at....... wait for it .......... wait a bit longer for it ........ no, you have to wait a bit longer ....... 32.78. The XLF 32.79 line in the sand tells you everything you need to know going forward.

Bears need NYA below 15150 that will usher in pain for stocks.

It is all about the financials, especially the banks, and XLF 32.79. As banks go, so goes the stock market. 

5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/23; 12:32 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12; go long 4137; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 4137 after munchtime yesterday. Chips and the NYA index are pumped higher sending the stock market higher. Utilities are collapsing into the abyss a harbinger of bad times ahead but for now, traders are fat, dumb and happy buying stocks without a care in the world.

Semiconductors, the NYA and the banks are controlling broad stock market direction currently and it can be narrowed down further into the NYA versus the XLF.

Bulls need XLF above 32.78 which proves the upside is real and a big leg higher in stocks will occur.

Bears need NYA below 15150 and/or SOX below 3026, either one would do, to stop the rally in its tracks and introduce negativity.

If XLF remains below 32.78, NYA above 15150 and SOX above 3026, status quo, stocks will stumble and stagger sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night.

The imminent turn notation remains in play since the NYA or SOX turning bearish will position the quant to flip back to the short side. If NYA or SOX turn negative, and the SPX drops below 4096 before lunchtime, or below the 4114 palindrome after lunchtime, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

On the last trade that ran for only a few days, the choppy sloppy mess continues, the quant program and the actual trading each lose about a percent. For the year thus far, the SPX is up almost +8%. The quant program is dead flat on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a couple percent in 2023 thus far. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's. The whipsaw timer is still in effect so the robot will likely not begin using 2x leveraged ETF's again until after 6/1/23. The choppy price action continues chewing-up bulls and bears alike.

5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/23; 12:32 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12; go long 4137; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.6%)
5/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
5/17/23; 9:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12
5/16/23; 3:56 PM EST = -19; signal line is -11
5/15/23; 12:21 PM EST = -5; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
5/15/23; 9:48 AM EST = -21; signal line is -10
5/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST = -21; signal line is -10
5/12/23; 12:47 PM EST = -21; signal line is -9; go short 4104; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +6.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to flip long again with the algo number 5 points above the signal line. The bulls pumped utilities out of the gate but that fell apart in 12 minutes so they next set their sites on chips pumping the SOX above 3019 at the 12:21 PM palindrome to create buoyancy in the broad US stock market.

The NYA remains above the critical 15150 bull/bear line in the sand that will usher in broad market pain if it fails (remember, these numbers are continuously recalculated so they fluctuate by pennies or a few dollars either way day to day).

The bulls have in on a silver platter if they want it. Bulls need SPX to move above 4141 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. This move represents an increase of about 5 SPX points and checking in real-time, about 4 hours before the opening bell in the United States, S&P futures are down -2 points so bulls still have some work to do if they want to take the market ball from the bears.

The stock market game is currently controlled by utes, semi's and the NYA index. Everything else is noise. You do not even have to watch the stock market. Instead, watch UTIL 953.58, UTIL 957.95, SOX 3019 and NYA 15150. Easy-peasy.

Bulls need SPX above 4141 to flip the model long. The SPX begins at 4136. Bulls will prove they have the juice to pump stocks higher if UTIL moves above 953.58 and stocks will jump strongly higher if UTIL moves above 957.95.

Bears simply need to push SOX below 3019 and/or NYA below 15150 to take away any chance of the model flipping long. Either one would do. If both fail, or especially, the NYA 15150, the US stock market will become bigtime ugly going forward.

Today will be interesting to see if the bulls got game to take the ball back, or, if they fold like a cheap suit and the bears maintain control. It's a Wild, Wild Life.

5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/23; 9:00 AM EST =
5/15/23; 12:21 PM EST = -5; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
5/15/23; 9:48 AM EST = -21; signal line is -10
5/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST = -21; signal line is -10
5/12/23; 12:47 PM EST = -21; signal line is -9; go short 4104; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +6.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday after munchtime at SPX 4104 exactly where it went long a week ago; a round trip of nothing. The sideways choppy slop that is the hallmark of 2023 continues chewing-up bulls and bears alike.

Utilities keep swinging to and fro unwilling to commit one way or another to tell the tale of the stock market going forward. NYA comes down for another kiss of the key 15162 area and bounces but there are likely further tests next week and an actual touch of 15162.

Utes, chips and the NYA index are running the show. UTIL 953.58 and 959.38 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 959.19 which will provide an advantage to the bulls out of the gate on Monday. Bears will need utilities to weaken on Monday.

Bears win and will accelerate the downside in stocks with UTIL below 953.58 and/or NYA below 15162. If NYA 15162 is lost, Chopin's Funeral March would be in order. Bulls will grab the stock market ball back if UTIL moves above 959.38 and/or SOX above 3017.

The caution and imminent turn flags remain out since the stock market is a coin-flip currently. Perhaps the 1's and 0's will tell the tale in the week ahead.

On the last trade that ran for about a week, everything is flat. It is more sideways stuff. On the year, the benchmark SPX remains up +6.9%, the quant program is up a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a couple percent. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw timer in effect for about 2-1/2 more weeks due to the choppy sloppy price environment.

5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/12/23; 12:47 PM EST = -21; signal line is -9; go short 4104; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +6.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.4%)
5/12/23; 11:19 AM EST = -21; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
5/12/23; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is -10
5/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/11/23; 1:01 PM EST = -21; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains long
5/11/23; 12:11 PM EST = -5; signal line is -15
5/11/23; 12:05 PM EST = -21; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains long
5/11/23; 11:55 AM EST = -5; signal line is -18
5/11/23; 11:08 AM EST = -21; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains long
5/11/23; 10:52 AM EST = -5; signal line is -21
5/11/23; 9:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is -23
5/10/23; 2:08 PM EST = -5; signal line is -24
5/10/23; 1:04 PM EST = -21; signal line is -26
5/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -27
5/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -29
5/9/23; 3:06 PM EST = -5; signal line is -29
5/9/23; 9:36 PM EST = -21; signal line is -30
5/8/23; 3:59 PM EST = -5; signal line is -31
5/8/23; 3:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/8/23; 3:46 PM EST = -5; signal line is -32
5/8/23; 10:28 AM EST = -21; signal line is -32
5/8/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -32
5/7/23; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:55 PM EST = -5; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:30 PM EST = -21; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:28 PM EST = -5; signal line is -30
5/5/23; 2:24 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -21; signal line is -31; go long 4104; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +6.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 7 points below the signal line. Utes jog across the UTIL 959.38 giving up the ghost late session. The internal parameters will not fully latch as yet to permit the move to the short side.

If the SPX slips below 4109 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX starts the day at 4131.

Utilities lay out a new game plan for next week. UTIL 959.38 will remain a bull/bear line in the sand, give or take a few pennies either way since the number is continuously recalculated, and UTIL 953.58 is the other key level for next week nullifying the 967.82 that was in play this week. Thus, UTIL 953.58 is an easier bar for the bulls to remain above.

Watch UTIL 959.38 today and also 953.58 which is in play all of next week. Price begins today at 956.30.

The NYA index is also in play again as identified by the quant so maintain a hairy eyeball on NYA 15162 which is a major bigtime bull/bear line in the sand.

Bears can flip Keybot the Quant short if the SPX drops below 4109. Bears win going forward with UTIL below 956.30 and NYA below 15162 which would cause a big drop lower for stocks.

Bulls can maintain the upward bias in US stocks if they push UTIL above 959.38 pronto and SOX above 3019.

Bulls win big with higher utes and socks. Bears win big with lower utes and NYA index. Today will be interesting. Utilities, semiconductors and the NYA are all that matter right now. 

5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/12/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/11/23; 1:01 PM EST = -21; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains long
5/11/23; 12:11 PM EST = -5; signal line is -15
5/11/23; 12:05 PM EST = -21; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains long
5/11/23; 11:55 AM EST = -5; signal line is -18
5/11/23; 11:08 AM EST = -21; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains long
5/11/23; 10:52 AM EST = -5; signal line is -21
5/11/23; 9:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is -23
5/10/23; 2:08 PM EST = -5; signal line is -24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. SOX came up to the 3018-3019 the robot called out ahead of time and died. Utilities recover with price in the middle of the two key levels called out by the robot. Retail stocks rally so the bears had nothing.

Same dealio. Utes, chips and retail stocks (Scamazon) are all that matter. Bulls continue winning and pushing stocks higher if UTIL moves above 967.82 and SOX above 3019.

Bears will stop the rally if UTIL drops below 959.40 and stocks will slide south if RTH loses 163.30.

Watch for jog moves with the utes (UTIL price moving back and forth across the key 959.40 level) since that hints that the quant is getting close to wanting to flip short. The robot is incrementally pushing that way if utes jog.

5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/12/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/10/23; 2:08 PM EST = -5; signal line is -24
5/10/23; 1:04 PM EST = -21; signal line is -26
5/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -27
5/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only 8 measly points above the signal line. The semiconductors failed out of the gate yesterday but retail stocks, led by Scamazon, continue waving a banner of glory. Inflation data is only 2 hours away and markets have been idling waiting for the numbers.

Bulls need stronger utilities and chips. Bulls need to push UTIL above 959.37, that is only pennies away, and to push SOX above 3018, to guarantee a continued up direction for the stock market.

Bears need to keep utes and chips weak while spanking retail stocks. Bears need RTH below 163.20 to signal trouble for the stock market and if the SPX slips below 4117 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short. If RTH loses 163.20, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play.

Bears will create market carnage if VIX jumps above 19.64. Any down move in stocks that is not accompanied with VIX above 19.64 would mean the down move does not have much oomph and will likely peter out with bulls staging another rally. VIX is trading at 18.02 in real-time. A stick and a half is not much for volatility to move. Looks like everything is riding on the inflation data.

Bulls win big with UTIL above 959.37 and SOX above 3018. Bears win big with RTH below 163.20. Easy peasy. 

5/12/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -29
5/9/23; 3:06 PM EST = -5; signal line is -29
5/9/23; 9:36 PM EST = -21; signal line is -30
5/8/23; 3:59 PM EST = -5; signal line is -31

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks dance on the head of a pin. There are lots of moving parts in the stock market right now with utes, chips and retail stocks the most important.

The utilities are comical once again failing and signaling a crash profile for the US stock market in the weeks ahead. UTIL 967.82 and UTIL 959.35 are key and humorously, price ends the session yesterday at 959.32 only 3 pennies on the bear side so obviously you know what to watch when the opening bell rings in the States.

Since utes are in failure, bulls must push UTIL above 959.35 pronto to prove that they can take stocks higher. If UTIL remains below 959.35 this week, the stock market will sour.

Bears need SOX below 3023 and price is at 3024 another tightrope dance of bulls and bears. Watch the chips at the opening bell.

Bears need RTH below 162.98, call it 163, to create negativity in stocks. If bears can flip both SOX and RTH into their camp, and the SPX drops below 4124 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, the caution flag will be out. If both turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be in play. 

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The targets keep moving and the wild market circus continues. 

5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/12/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/8/23; 3:59 PM EST = -5; signal line is -31
5/8/23; 3:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/8/23; 3:46 PM EST = -5; signal line is -32
5/8/23; 10:28 AM EST = -21; signal line is -32
5/8/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -32
5/7/23; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 4104 on Friday morning as the choppy slop continues. Markets are jumpy like a Mexican jumping bean on Cinco de Mayo. Volatility, retail stocks and the NYA index hop back into the bull camp sending prices strongly higher. Utilities join the bulls on Friday afternoon creating the late-day push higher in equities.

Although the wild recovery move was possible as mentioned in the prior post, it was not expected. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 42 points above the signal line but the bears were in firm control before they stumbled. Stocks are reacting emotionally to news bites especially inflation chatter and Fed talk.

Utilities recover, again, taking the crash profile for the US market temporarily back off the front burner. However, utes will suffer a setback out of the gate on Monday unless another healthy rally occurs. UTIL needs to move above 967.82 after Monday's opening bell, otherwise the stock market rally will stall. UTIL must also remain above 960.85 and both these numbers are in effect all week long. UTIL price will begin the week at 962.

Volatility turned bearish but if you blinked you missed it with the VIX back in the bull camp below 19.85. Utes, volatility and chips are the likely 3 main parameters controlling stocks come Monday morning.

Bulls need UTIL above 967.82 and SOX above 3026 to signal that the rally is real and there is big upside ahead for US stocks.

Bears need UTIL below 960.85 and VIX above 19.85 to place the model in a position to go short and usher-in stock market pain and misery.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program and the actual trading each gain a percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up +7%, the Keybot the Quant program is up a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a couple percent. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's to reduce risk as the choppy slop continues.

5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/7/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/23; 3:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:55 PM EST = -5; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:30 PM EST = -21; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 3:28 PM EST = -5; signal line is -30
5/5/23; 2:24 PM EST = +11; signal line is -31
5/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -21; signal line is -31; go long 4104; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +6.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.3%)
5/5/23; 9:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is -30
5/5/23; 3:06 AM EST = -51; signal line is -28
5/4/23; 3:59 PM EST = -65; signal line is -27
5/4/23; 3:36 PM EST = -51; signal line is -25
5/4/23; 3:18 PM EST = -65; signal line is -23
5/4/23; 3:10 PM EST = -51; signal line is -22
5/4/23; 1:46 PM EST = -65; signal line is -20
5/4/23; 1:37 PM EST = -37; signal line is -19
5/4/23; 1:36 PM EST = -51; signal line is -18
5/4/23; 10:13 AM EST = -65; signal line is -16
5/4/23; 10:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is -14
5/4/23; 9:57 AM EST = -65; signal line is -13
5/4/23; 9:49 AM EST = -49; signal line is -10
5/4/23; 9:47 AM EST = -35; signal line is -8
5/2/23; 1:02 PM EST = -21; signal line is -7
5/2/23; 10:15 AM EST = -37; signal line is -6
5/2/23; 10:04 AM EST = -21; signal line is -4
5/2/23; 9:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is -3
5/2/23; 9:39 AM EST = -21; signal line is -3; go short 4152; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +8.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short riding the stock market roller coaster. Stocks are up, down, down, up, yeah, yeah, yeah, as Jimmy sings. The bears are cruising with the algo number 38 points below the signal line.

The critical NYA 15160 bull/bear line in the sand failed. This is extremely troubling and with utes remaining in failure enforcing a crash profile on the broad stock market going forward, the path ahead is rocky and difficult at best.

Retail stocks also failed creating market weakness. Volatility comes alive today for the first time since 3/28/23 over one month ago. Ole Rip van Winkle Volatility jumps up and runs around creating havoc in the stock market.

The quant prints a dozen numbers today so the craziness continues. Bears did some serious damage today to the stock market.

Any 1 of the following 4 parameters will stop the selling and stabilize stocks; UTIL 960.60 (but this number changes to 968 for next week making it harder for bulls), RTH 162.63, VIX 19.89 and NYA 15160. Two or more of the 4 flipping bullish will create a relief rally but Keybot the Quant needs 3 to flip bullish to bring on a turn to the long side (which is doable with RTH, VIX and NYA).

VIX trades from 3 AM EST forward so that will provide an immediate read on where the stock market wants to go tomorrow. The US Monthly Jobs Report drops in the morning in the States at 8:30 AM EST (East Coast).

The importance of NYA 15160 cannot be overstated. If the bulls can recover quickly and push NYA price back above 15160 before the weekend, it will hint that the bears do not have much juice going forward. However, each day that the NYA is below 15160 going forward is another large barn nail driven into the bulls coffin, and each day becomes darker with more selling pressure.

5/7/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/23; 9:00 AM EST =
5/4/23; 3:59 PM EST = -65; signal line is -27
5/4/23; 3:36 PM EST = -51; signal line is -25
5/4/23; 3:18 PM EST = -65; signal line is -23
5/4/23; 3:10 PM EST = -51; signal line is -22
5/4/23; 1:46 PM EST = -65; signal line is -20
5/4/23; 1:37 PM EST = -37; signal line is -19
5/4/23; 1:36 PM EST = -51; signal line is -18
5/4/23; 10:13 AM EST = -65; signal line is -16
5/4/23; 10:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is -14
5/4/23; 9:57 AM EST = -65; signal line is -13
5/4/23; 9:49 AM EST = -49; signal line is -10
5/4/23; 9:47 AM EST = -35; signal line is -8
5/2/23; 1:02 PM EST = -21; signal line is -7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side after yesterday's opening bell at SPX 4152 and it was no big surprise. Do not hold your breath since the choppy whipsaw slop, and Fed decision today, may flip the model long again. The multi-month chop suey shows no sign of abating.

Utilities failed in a big way yesterday and this is a very bad omen for stocks going forward. The bulls have managed in recent weeks to keep saving the day with the utes but their luck may have ran out yesterday. Chips and retail stocks also fail although retail battled back into the bull camp late-day. The RTH ETF is basically a read on Scamazon, Home Despot, Walfart and Costalotco.

The algo number is only 14 points below the signal line so the bears have to prove themselves. The door remains open for the bulls with Pope Powell, donning a pale green robe, waiting in the wings today ready to massage the markets. The caution and imminent turn flags remain in the title line since anything goes this week. The stock market is a coin-flip.

For today, as Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell traders how to trade, watch UTIL 460.60. Bulls desperately need to recover this level otherwise there will be Hell to pay. Bulls also need SOX above 3027 to save the day.

Bears need RTH below 162.60 which will trigger another leg lower for US stocks. Bears also need NYA below 15160 a critically-important bull/bear line in the sand that, like utes, have not only short-term ramifications but also will create intermediate and longer-term pain for stocks. NYA price is at 15315 within striking distance of the 15160 line in the sand. Bears will throw confetti if this failure occurs while bulls will be crying in their beer watching stocks collapse. Conversely, if NYA price comes down to test 15160 and bounces, the bulls will cheer since that will hint at more days and probably a couple-few more weeks of buoyancy in the stock market.

If bullish, you want higher utes and chips. Either parameter will place Keybot the Quant in a position to go long but the SPX likely needs to rally 40 or 50 points to allow the flip. If bearish, you want weaker retail stocks (AMZN) and NYA index.

On the last trade, that ran for not even one day, only about 6 trading hours, the quant program loses a half-percent and the actual trading loses about a percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +8%, the quant program is flat and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +1%. It is a year of choppy slop. Algorithms and quants have difficulty dealing with choppy markets. Some investment houses will pull the plug on their models. Keybot is hanging in there tracking and riding the multi-month bucking bronco which tramples bulls and bears alike. It is impressive to be flat in such a hostile trading environment. Keybot exits SSO and enters SH a 1x ETF. The robot will not employ 2x leveraged ETF's for at least 30 days due to the whipsaw move. The quant senses more wicked chop ahead and drops into the 1x ETF's to automatically reduce risk. The beat goes on.

5/7/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/23; 9:00 AM EST =
5/2/23; 1:02 PM EST = -21; signal line is -7
5/2/23; 10:15 AM EST = -37; signal line is -6
5/2/23; 10:04 AM EST = -21; signal line is -4
5/2/23; 9:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is -3
5/2/23; 9:39 AM EST = -21; signal line is -3; go short 4152; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +8.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.1%)
5/1/23; 3:59 PM EST = -5; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains long
5/1/23; 2:40 PM EST = +11; signal line is -1
5/1/23; 10:14 AM EST = +27; signal line is +0
5/1/23; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is +1; go long 4172; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.3%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.3%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4172. The choppy slop continues all year long. The algo already wants to flip back to the short side with the algo number 3 points below the signal line so stay alert for more whipsaws and chops this week as the Fed decision nears.

Utilities and banks were key yesterday and now chips and retail want a piece of the action. Comically, UTIL closes at 960.77 exactly in the middle of the two key bull/bear parameters at 960.60 and 960.85 that Keybot called out ahead of time. Amazing.

The bullish joy dissipated after the flip to the long side since UTIL failed at 960.85 and banks failed at XLF 33.13. These bull/bear lines in the sand, as well as UTIL 960.60 remain in play and tell you which way stocks are headed.

In addition, bulls will win with stronger chips. Bears win with weaker retail stocks.

Bulls need UTIL above 960.85, SOX above 3027 and XLF above 33.13 to create big upside. Bears need UTIL below 960.60 and RTH below 162.60 to turn stocks sour again.

Keybot the Quant wants to flip short again and likely will below SPX 4164 but a lot can happen like yesterday. A gap-down open of 13 points will delay Keybot the Quant from flipping short for about 90 minutes. S&P futures are currently down -7 about 4 hours before the opening bell.

On the last trade that ran for about a week and one-half, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. For the year thus far, the SPX is up almost +9%, the Keybot the Quant program is dead flat and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +2%. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO. Watch the utilities and banks.

5/7/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/23; 9:00 AM EST =
5/1/23; 3:59 PM EST = -5; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains long
5/1/23; 2:40 PM EST = +11; signal line is -1
5/1/23; 10:14 AM EST = +27; signal line is +0
5/1/23; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is +1; go long 4172; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.3%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.3%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.9%)
4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -5; signal line is +1
4/28/23; 3:12 PM EST = -5; signal line is +3
4/28/23; 2:49 PM EST = -21; signal line is +4
4/28/23; 1:06 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
4/28/23; 12:10 PM EST = +11; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
4/28/23; 11:11 AM EST = -5; signal line is +9
4/28/23; 11:04 AM EST = -21; signal line is +10
4/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +13
4/27/23; 3:50 PM EST = -5; signal line is +15
4/27/23; 3:38 PM EST = -21; signal line is +17
4/27/23; 3:03 PM EST = -5; signal line is +19
4/26/23; 11:57 AM EST = -21; signal line is +21
4/26/23; 10:56 AM EST = -5; signal line is +24
4/26/23; 9:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is +26
4/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +29
4/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +30
4/24/23; 3:15 PM EST = +12; signal line is +31
4/24/23; 2:12 PM EST = -4; signal line is +31
4/24/23; 1:26 PM EST = +12; signal line is +32
4/24/23; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +33
4/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +34
4/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = +12; signal line is +35
4/21/23; 9:44 AM EST = -4; signal line is +35
4/21/23; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +36
4/20/23; 3:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +36; go short 4118; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +6.5%; Actual results for 2023 = +4.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with a big week ahead for stocks. The bears are in charge but there is only 6 points between the algo number and signal line.

Utes and banks will tell the story. Bulls need UTIL above 960-962 pronto to help ignite an upside rally and potentially force Keybot the Quant to flip long.

Bears need XLF below 33.11 to send the stock market south. One of the two will flinch.

In the pre-market, XLF is at 33.23 so the bulls are cheering keeping the financials in their camp. Utes are not yet tipping their hand. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Today is the first day of May trading. It is May and everyone loves the flower girl.

5/7/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/23; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -5; signal line is +1
4/28/23; 3:12 PM EST = -5; signal line is +3