Tuesday, May 23, 2023

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market idles along waiting for a debt ceiling resolution. The algo number is only 7 points above the signal line so the bulls are not convincing markets that up is the path forward.

XLF comes up to test the critical 32.77 bull/bear line in the sand and fails again. If the bulls are strong, you will see XLF launch above 32.77. Each day XLF remains below 32.77 creates more sogginess and negativity going forward. If you are riding the bullish wave, you need XLF 32.77. If you do not see it, think twice about the long side. The banks dictate if the bulls got game going forward.

Bears need NYA below 15145 which will usher in serious market negativity. Bears need RTH below 1674.50 and this depends a lot on Scamazon. Bears need VIX above 19.20 to drop the hammer on the bulls. Any 1 of the 3 parameters flipping into the bear camp will position Keybot the Quant to go short and if the SPX drops below 4180 trending lower, that would likely seal the deal. Thus, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

If you see NYA below 15145 and VIX above 19.20, run for your life if long the stock market because stocks will fall dramatically.

For now, stocks remain buoyant as the debt ceiling drama plays out in America's failing crony capitalism system breathing its last breaths of life. Bulls need stronger banks while bears need weaker NYA index and retail stocks and higher volatility. The beat goes on.

5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/19/23; 11:17 AM EST = -5; signal line is -12
5/19/23; 9:40 AM EST = +11; signal line is -11
5/17/23; 12:32 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12; go long 4137; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.6%)

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