Thursday, May 18, 2023

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 4137 after munchtime yesterday. Chips and the NYA index are pumped higher sending the stock market higher. Utilities are collapsing into the abyss a harbinger of bad times ahead but for now, traders are fat, dumb and happy buying stocks without a care in the world.

Semiconductors, the NYA and the banks are controlling broad stock market direction currently and it can be narrowed down further into the NYA versus the XLF.

Bulls need XLF above 32.78 which proves the upside is real and a big leg higher in stocks will occur.

Bears need NYA below 15150 and/or SOX below 3026, either one would do, to stop the rally in its tracks and introduce negativity.

If XLF remains below 32.78, NYA above 15150 and SOX above 3026, status quo, stocks will stumble and stagger sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night.

The imminent turn notation remains in play since the NYA or SOX turning bearish will position the quant to flip back to the short side. If NYA or SOX turn negative, and the SPX drops below 4096 before lunchtime, or below the 4114 palindrome after lunchtime, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

On the last trade that ran for only a few days, the choppy sloppy mess continues, the quant program and the actual trading each lose about a percent. For the year thus far, the SPX is up almost +8%. The quant program is dead flat on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a couple percent in 2023 thus far. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's. The whipsaw timer is still in effect so the robot will likely not begin using 2x leveraged ETF's again until after 6/1/23. The choppy price action continues chewing-up bulls and bears alike.

5/21/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/23; 12:32 PM EST = -5; signal line is -12; go long 4137; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.6%)
5/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
5/17/23; 9:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12
5/16/23; 3:56 PM EST = -19; signal line is -11
5/15/23; 12:21 PM EST = -5; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
5/15/23; 9:48 AM EST = -21; signal line is -10
5/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
5/14/23; 7:00 PM EST = -21; signal line is -10
5/12/23; 12:47 PM EST = -21; signal line is -9; go short 4104; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +6.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.4%)

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