STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a Crazy first day of trading in 2025. The robot flipped twice in one day which is very rare behavior and it happened a couple weeks ago as well. The stock market is erratic and unstable. Stocks shot higher out of the gate with new money being put to work in the new year and then it fizzled-out, like a teenager's model rocket launched in the back yard, and everything fell to Earth.

Chips, banks and retail stocks are all that matter. You saw that the VIX did not fall below 17.03 despite the huge rally, so you knew the bullish excitement would not last, and it did not. Keep watching volatility.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 25 points below the signal line but in this choppy slop it probably does not mean much. Bulls need one of these three parameters to turn bullish or they are in big trouble; SOX 5058, XLF 48.60, or RTH 225.50. The robot likely needs 2 of the 3 to turn bullish to be in position to flip back to the long side.

The bears need NYA to fall below 18804, call it 18.8K, and all Hell will break loose with the stock market collapsing. Bulls are okay if they keep NYA above 18.8K, but all hope for longs is lost if it fails.

If you are bearish, you want to see NYA fall below 18.8K which begins market carnage.

If you are bullish, you simply need higher chips, banks, and retail stocks, and lower volatility, to stabilize the stock market, and set up a sustainable rally.

The robot was in the leftover PSQ (inverse ETF) short trade from last year and this was exited and DIA (long ETF) was entered for the long side. The quant exited DIA as stocks collapsed and entered DOG (inverse ETF). For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is flat (it started the year at 5882). The quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down about a percent to begin the year. The robot will remain in single ETF's through Groundhog Day (2/2/25) and if a whipsaw does not occur again, it will cycle into the 2x leveraged ETF's thereafter.

2025 is off and stumbling. Yesterday was a round-trip with people running in different directions but everyone ending up in the same place they started. The House is a Rockin' this year, don't bother knockin', come on in, there's some bad honky-tonker's really laying it down, come on baby, shake somethin' loose.

1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/2/25; 12:30 PM EST = -32; signal line is -7
1/2/25; 11:53 AM EST = -16; signal line is -6
1/2/25; 11:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is -5; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -1.2%)
1/2/25; 10:26 AM EST = -16; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains long
1/2/25; 10:23 AM EST = +0; signal line is -1
1/2/25; 10:07 AM EST = +16; signal line is -1; go long 5928; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2025 = -0.9%)
1/2/25; 9:58 AM EST = +0; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/2/25; 9:52 AM EST = -16; signal line is -4
1/1/25; Begin 2025 Data = -32; signal line is -5; go short 5882; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +0.0%)