STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 5988. The bulls came to play yesterday pumping semiconductors. The choppy whipsaw slop continues in 2025. It's a Wild Wild Life.

Copper, retail stocks and banks were pumped higher creating yesterday's stock market joy as the first full week of trading in 2025 is underway. New money comes in to start the year especially during the first five days; that ends tomorrow. The chop suey price action is likely due to a battle between the new money coming in versus the sellers on the way out that waited for January so they do not have to think about the tax gains until next year.

The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 21 points above the signal line. The caution flag remains out since the price action thus far this year is erratic and unstable so anything can happen at the wink of an eye.

The bulls need stronger copper and banks to catapult stocks higher to the huge price targets set by Wall Street analysts. Bulls need CPER above 26.09, which will occur this morning by the looks of the copper futures, and/or XLF above 48.62. XLF is at 48.50 right now in the pre-market. So bulls should receive more upside juice in stocks due to happy copper and the jury is out if the banksters will provide more equity pumpage.

Bears need to reverse the happiness in copper and drive the red metal lower. Ditto with banks. At the same time, the bears need XRT below the 79.97 palindrome, and VIX above 17.03, to position the quant to flip short. Bears got nothing unless they can get the VIX up over 17 heading higher.

On the last trade, that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses -1.5% and the actual trading loses -0.4%. The trading loss was not as bad as the algo program because there is robust buying appearing in the inverse ETF's. The huge amount of money in ETF's, and how it all can shift on a dime, makes you stop and think. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 index, that is the US stock market, is up +2%. The quant program is down -3% and the actual trading begins the year down a couple percent after three losing trades. The robot starts the year short, and flips long, then short again, now long again. Chop suey. You put your right foot in, you put your right foot out....do the Hokey Pokey and turn yourself around, that's what its all about. Everybody now! Keybot the Quant exited DOG, that was a dog trade, and entered QQQ.

1/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/10/25; 9:00 AM EST =
1/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -7
1/6/25; 3:12 PM EST = -2; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 2:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 1:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is -10
1/6/25; 10:03 AM EST = +46; signal line is -12
1/6/25; 9:48 AM EST = +30; signal line is -13
1/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is -13; go long 5988; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -2.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = -1.6%)
1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 11:25 AM EST = -2; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 11:14 AM EST = -16; signal line is -11
1/3/25; 11:04 AM EST = -2; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -8
1/2/25; 12:30 PM EST = -32; signal line is -7
1/2/25; 11:53 AM EST = -16; signal line is -6
1/2/25; 11:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is -5; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -1.2%)