STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short this morning at SPX 5955 as the relentless whipsaw slop continues in 2025. It is sickening price action. Choppy markets chew-up bulls and bears alike and wreak havoc on algorithms. This morning started with euphoric bull joy.

The algo number popped to +46 and the orgy was on. But as the first hour of trading played out, the bulls fell on their sword and had to say goodbye. Banks, retail stocks and volatility jump into the bear camp sending stocks lower. This price action the last 4 days, to begin the year, has never been seen in the 16-year history of the quant. The bulls may have to become good at Saying Goodbye.

The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line (anything can happen). Focus on banks and volatility. XLF 48.61 and VIX 17.03 are the bull/bear lines in the sand that dictate who wins. Both are bearish (weaker banks, higher volatility) so the bulls need either metric to join their side and that will stop the stock market selling. Bulls got nothing going forward unless they can push VIX below 17.03. Check it in the morning and you will know what will happen during the day before it happens.

Bears need weaker copper if they want to create a strong downleg for stocks. Bears need CPER below 26.09 and all Hell will break loose in the stock market. This represents a -0.4% drop in copper futures. If you see copper futures down more than -0.4%, that means the bears are going to start slapping bulls around.

On the last trade that ran for a day, the chop suey does not taste good, the quant program and actual trading each lose less than a percent. For the year thus far, after four sh*tty days of whipsaw choppy slop, the benchmark SPX is up a percent. The quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading begins the year down a couple percent. Hey Keybot the Quant, you are supposed to be going up, not down. Quiet down, peanut gallery. There is 12 months of fun ahead so there will be lots of twists and turns. Keybot exited QQQ and entered RWM. The Twist. Come on little baby, do the twist. Twist & Shout. C'mon, baby, work it on out, twist little girl, you twist so fine.

1/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/10/25; 9:00 AM EST =
1/7/25; 11:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2
1/7/25; 11:03 AM EST = +16; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
1/7/25; 10:20 AM EST = +0; signal line is -0; go short 5955; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +1.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -3.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2025 = -2.4%)
1/7/25; 10:10 AM EST = +14; signal line is -1
1/7/25; 9:46 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3
1/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is -4
1/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -7
1/6/25; 3:12 PM EST = -2; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 2:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 1:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is -10
1/6/25; 10:03 AM EST = +46; signal line is -12
1/6/25; 9:48 AM EST = +30; signal line is -13
1/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is -13; go long 5988; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -2.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = -1.6%)