STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 5859 at munchtime. It is all about copper now and going forward.

CPER 29.38 is the bull/bear line in the sand and at the end of the session price comes up to, wait for it, wait a bit longer, 29.37 settling at 29.36. As copper goes, so goes the US stock market.

Bulls need CPER above 29.38 to keep the stock market steady and begin fighting back to regain control.

Bears need to keep copper in their camp and at the same time pulling UTIL below 1023, NYA below 19455, and/or VIX above 22.16. You can use these three parameters as a gauge on the potential selling event developing. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will remains soggy and begin weakening further. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling in a steady machine-driven selloff. If all 3 turn bearish, the stock market is screwed and will be falling like a rock and if UTIL then loses 1010, it is over; a stock market crash is likely. It's fun.

Thus, copper is the big shot in Big Town, baby, please let me come back home, holding all the cards for the stock market right now. Watch copper futures Sunday evening and it will tell you the direction ahead. Copper, utilities, the NYA index and volatility are all that matter.

On the last trade, the stock market recovers big off the early April lows. The benchmark SPX is now back to flat on the year. The quant program gains +12% on the last trade and is now up +17% on the year. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant gains +12% on the last trade and is now up a big +21% on the year that is not even one-half over. The quant's actual trading is outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 21 percentage points so far this year. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SDS now back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired. Matthew Sweet in the MTV days. Get well soon. Sick of Myself.

6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)
5/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/29/25; 9:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/29/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
5/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
5/27/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is +35
5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:55 PM EST = +27; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:46 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 3:25 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 12:28 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 12:10 PM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 11:36 AM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 7:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 12:02 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 11:47 AM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 11:32 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 2:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 1:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 10:38 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 10:22 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
5/21/25; 10:15 AM EST = +41; signal line is +30
5/21/25; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
5/20/25; 3:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
5/19/25; 1:40 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
5/19/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +23
5/19/25; 1:06 PM EST = +25; signal line is +21
5/19/25; 12:57 PM EST = +41; signal line is +20
5/19/25; 12:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +17
5/19/25; 12:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +15
5/19/25; 11:43 AM EST = +25; signal line is +13
5/19/25; 11:33 AM EST = +41; signal line is +10
5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +9
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +7
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +5
5/15/25; 3:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +4
5/15/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +3
5/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +0
5/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = +23; signal line is -2
5/14/25; 2:39 PM EST = +9; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 2:09 PM EST = +23; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = +7; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 11:23 AM EST = +55; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 10:13 AM EST = +41; signal line is -8
5/12/25; 10:39 AM EST = +25; signal line is -9
5/12/25; 10:11 AM EST = +39; signal line is -10
5/12/25; 10:02 AM EST = +25; signal line is -12
5/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is -13
5/12/25; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is -16
5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -18
5/9/25; 10:16 AM EST = -17; signal line is -19
5/9/25; 9:36 AM EST = -3; signal line is -21
5/8/25; 3:51 PM EST = -17; signal line is -23
5/8/25; 11:39 AM EST = -3; signal line is -24
5/7/25; 3:47 PM EST = -17; signal line is -26
5/7/25; 1:32 PM EST = -33; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
5/7/25; 1:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -28
5/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:33 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:54 PM EST = -33; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 12:26 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:19 PM EST = -1; signal line is -33
5/6/25; 10:26 AM EST = -17; signal line is -34
5/6/25; 9:44 AM EST = -33; signal line is -35
5/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -35
5/5/25; 3:02 PM EST = -17; signal line is -36
5/5/25; 2:11 PM EST = -3; signal line is -37
5/5/25; 1:03 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38
5/5/25; 12:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is -39
5/5/25; 10:11 AM EST = -17; signal line is -40
5/5/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is -41
5/4/25; 7:00 PM EST = -3; signal line is -41
5/2/25; 12:06 PM EST = -3; signal line is -42
5/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -44
5/2/25; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:47 PM EST = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:36 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:17 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 2:41 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:31 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:16 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:48 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:28 PM EST = -65; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:10 PM EST = -49; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = -33; signal line is -44
4/28/25; 2:28 PM EST = -31; signal line is -45
4/28/25; 12:06 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48
4/25/25; 2:41 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50
4/25/25; 1:51 PM EST = -47; signal line is -52
4/25/25; 1:12 PM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/25/25; 9:57 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/24/25; 12:31 PM EST = -31; signal line is -56
4/23/25; 11:51 AM EST = -47; signal line is -57
4/23/25; 10:07 AM EST = -31; signal line is -55
4/23/25; 9:49 AM EST = -15; signal line is -54
4/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/22/25; 10:41 AM EST = -47; signal line is -54; go long 5254 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +5.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +9.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the King Donnie roller coaster ride continues. The orange head imposes tariffs on the EU while also dissing Apple sending stocks lower late last week. Then he reverses his EU threats when Sunday night futures open to bounce stocks this week. Trump's cronies are making millions being told the moves ahead of time. The courts now rule that many of the tariff decrees must be placed on hold so stocks feel more upside joy today with S&P futures up a hundo points.

The quant is champing at the bit to go short (the algo number is 5 points below the signal line) but will not yet make the move since the internal parameters will not latch. If the SPX drops below 5882, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. It is that easy for the bears. All they need is about 7 negative points to begin stock market trouble.

But the bulls will not have it. S&P futures explode higher due to tariffs on hold by the courts, and NVDA earnings joy, so it appears that the bears are left at the altar again, for now.

While traders are giddy and buying stocks, copper slumps. It is not good going forward if Dr Copper is in the downstairs bathroom puking. The SPX may reverse its early gains today; time will tell.

Watch utilities that may be coming back into the picture. If UTIL loses the 1006-1007 level this week, there would be a high probability that the stock market may fall into a mini-crash event. It's fun. Stay alert. Do not be complacent like every trader on Wall Street today.

Also, keep an eye on the VIX 22.16 bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls are probably okay as long as the VIX remains below 22.16 but big trouble begins if she runs above 22.16. The market is Livin' On A Prayer. The bulls are tryin' to hold on to what they got.

6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
5/27/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is +35
5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 7 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The stock market cannot make up its mind. You Were Always On My Mind; Chris singing Willie's song.

There are lots of moving parts nowadays as Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War baby stuff continues. Volatility and commodities are dragging the stock market lower while copper and the NYA and SPX indexes are creating bullish buoyancy. One team or the other will win in the holiday-shortened week ahead.

For the bears, the key parameter needed is the SPX below 5767 to likely flip the quant short so watch for about -35 points of weakness in the S&P futures into Tuesday if the bears want to growl. Bears also need SPX under 5747, NYA below 19442 and/or CPER below 29.15 to create stock market carnage. All of the parameters turning bearish spell doom for the US stock market.

SPX 5747 and NYA 19442 are uber important because they separate a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market. Equities are testing these two key levels now so if you remain bullish the stock market, get down on your knees and pray that these two metrics do not fail. 

Bulls need VIX below 22.15 and/or GTX above 3651 to maintain control of the stock market. If the VIX remains above 22.15, the bulls are likely screwed. Bulls will maintain stock market buoyancy if they send VIX back below 22.15.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers in the week ahead the first on Tuesday when US markets come back on line after the Memorial Day holiday and the second on Friday morning. Trading in the month of May ends on Friday. 

Thank you to all the families of fallen soldiers; they gave the ultimate sacrifice for the rest of us. Those Caissons Go Rolling Along.

6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/27/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:55 PM EST = +27; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:46 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 3:25 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 12:28 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 12:10 PM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 11:36 AM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 7:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 12:02 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 11:47 AM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 11:32 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 2:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 8 points above the signal line. The bulls save the day today pumping copper to prevent the quant from flipping short. You can see that Keybot the Quant was champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move.

Copper, banks and utes are in the bull camp creating stock market joy while commodities create a dark cloud over the stock market. The battle continues.

Bulls must push GTX above 3652, now at 3641, to signal the all-clear for stock market party time and the march to SPX 6K.

Bears must keep GTX below 3652 and at the same time pull CPER below 29.15, or XLF below 49.30, or UTIL below 1008. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will be good enough to put the quant in status to go short. Then, if the SPX is below 5831 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Bears likely need to chop some wood on utilities to send them lower. Note that rates are rising and utilities should be sinking but they continue higher. This is due to the power requirements needed for the AI robots. The stock market is hyped-up on artificial intelligence with traders likely displaying a different AI: arrogant ignorance.

The banks need to fail about -2% to help the bears so keep an eye on those names and copper futures only need to drop -0.2% to turn CPER bearish. Thus, the obvious duel is between commodities, representing the bears, and copper, representing the bulls. It is a cage match. The two will enter the cage tomorrow but only one will exit and the stock market will follow that lead.

If copper futures are negative overnight and S&P futures are down 14 or more points, the stock market is in trouble and the quant will likely flip short. If banks lose about -2% that will accelerate any downside occurring with stocks. Bulls can make all their problems and worries go away if they attain GTX 3652.

5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/21/25; 2:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 1:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 10:38 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 10:22 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
5/21/25; 10:15 AM EST = +41; signal line is +30
5/21/25; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
5/20/25; 3:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
5/19/25; 1:40 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
5/19/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +23
5/19/25; 1:06 PM EST = +25; signal line is +21
5/19/25; 12:57 PM EST = +41; signal line is +20
5/19/25; 12:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +17
5/19/25; 12:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +15
5/19/25; 11:43 AM EST = +25; signal line is +13
5/19/25; 11:33 AM EST = +41; signal line is +10
5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 16 points above the signal line. The bulls goosed utilities last week to prevent stocks from falling apart. Equities move up and down as per the tariff news. The bulls are firmly in charge but in these erratic, unstable markets anything can happen.

Bulls need higher copper and commodities to prove they got game. Bears need weaker utilities and higher volatility to turn the tables on the bulls.

Bulls need CPER above 29.21 and/or GTX above 3654. Bears need UTIL below 1005 and/or VIX above 21.90.

It is a heavy lift for bears unless the utes collapse and retrace their orgy move last week.

Another potential path forward is the CPER and GTX metrics oscillating above and below their lines in the sand. If you see this behavior occurring, it likely means that the quant is preparing to go short. If copper and/or commodities jog above and below their key levels, that will likely bring the signal line higher to meet the algo number and the utilities weakening would not be necessary to flip the model short.

There are no pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bulls are enjoying a +20% and more move off the bottom with a strong and fast relief rally but now everyone is looking at each other wondering what is next.

5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +9
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +7
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +5
5/15/25; 3:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 21 points above the signal line. However, copper and commodities are in the bear camp. CPER lands exactly on the 29.27 bull/bear line in the sand and copper futures are weak overnight so copper should stay with the bears.

Utilities are goosed higher yesterday to prevent the quant from setting up for the bears. Traders are buying the dips in utes consistently the last few months because the so-called coming AI boom will need lots of electrical power. The wealthy elite ruling class did not give a rat's arse about bringing power to poor and hungry people but AI technology is a different story. The common folks, such as miners working in the Blue Sky Mine, always get screwed for the sake of corporate greed and profits. It is what humans do.

Thus, the bulls are keeping equities elevated by pumping the utes. Bears need weaker utilities and higher volatility if they want to win the day. For now, the bulls are owning the joint walking around with their chests puffed-out. The 2 pre-scheduled numbers print this morning.

5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST =
5/15/25; 3:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +4
5/15/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +3
5/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +0
5/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = +23; signal line is -2
5/14/25; 2:39 PM EST = +9; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 2:09 PM EST = +23; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = +7; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 11:23 AM EST = +55; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with stocks flying to the moon. Equities are riding the roller coaster higher as Freddy sings Palisades Park. That's where the girls are. I gave that girl a hug, in the tunnel of love. Stocks catapult to the stratosphere as King Donnie announces a relaxation in China's tariffs. Go figure. Today, copper and commodities join the bull party sending equities to the Pleiades. Can't Stop.

The bulls are in obvious control annihilating the bears this week on the tariff happy talk. There is only bear carnage remaining. The algo number is 60 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising along with their feet up on the dash.

What next? Since copper and commodities are the latest to flip long, they remain important going forward so watch the CPER 29.30 and GTX 3658 bull/bear lines in the sand.

Bears will need more negativity than copper and commodities even if they turn bearish. The most interesting market metric at play today, that no one else is watching since they do not know what to watch, is the utilities. UTIL 999.54 and 1004.95 are two important bull/bear lines in the sand this week. Price has fallen to 1007 and teased the 1005 failure today.

The utes recovering in recent weeks took the dire scenario off the table for the US stock market but if utes roll over again, that hints at another major bout of trouble ahead for equities. Watch UTIL closely this week. 

The bulls are partying but the bears are sneaking around in the background setting up copper, commodities and utilities to launch a possible surprise attack. The bears probably need to run the table with CPER 29.30, GTX 3658, UTIL 1004.95 and UTIL 99.54 to likely flip Keybot the Quant to the short side. It is 4 dominoes that need to fall into place for the bears.

The algo only sees 1's and 0's so time will tell. For now, the bulls are drunk as skunks, drinking the bull frog's wine, singing songs of joy. Joy to the World.

5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST =
5/13/25; 11:23 AM EST = +55; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 10:13 AM EST = +41; signal line is -8
5/12/25; 10:39 AM EST = +25; signal line is -9
5/12/25; 10:11 AM EST = +39; signal line is -10
5/12/25; 10:02 AM EST = +25; signal line is -12
5/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is -13
5/12/25; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is -16
5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the stock market dancing on the head of a pin, Modern English, only one measly point separating the algo number and signal line.

The bulls remain in control of the stock market, by a thread, and need NYA above 19385 and/or VIX below 21.80. Both turning bullish will send stocks to the moon. The VIX fell to 21.83 on Friday testing the quant's bull/bear line in the sand and begins the new week at 21.90 only a dime away. It's just a shot away, shot away, shot away, as Bono, Fergie and Mick sing. Gimme Shelter, honey.

The bears need weaker chips and retail stocks to growl. Bears need SOX below 4350 and/or XRT below 69.82. If either parameter flips bearish, and the SPX drops below 5644 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Thus, the NYA index, volatility, semiconductors and retail stocks are all that matter for stock market direction.

The NYA is playing games oscillating above and below the critical 19383-19385 line in the sand. If this behavior continues, with a couple more jogs above and below this demarcation line, that tells you that the stock market is likely setting-up short. If the NYA continues the baby games, it actually makes the bear's job easier at flipping the stock market short. If the NYA jogs above and below 19385 a couple more times, and then fails below and starts to trend lower, and if the SPX drops below 5644 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Monday is a key day. Either the NYA and VIX catapult stocks higher with the bulls throwing confetti and swigging-down Fed wine, or, semi's or retail stocks fail, or the NYA jogs above and below 19385 ending in failure, that will start a new path lower for the US stock market. 

5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST =
5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -18
5/9/25; 10:16 AM EST = -17; signal line is -19
5/9/25; 9:36 AM EST = -3; signal line is -21
5/8/25; 3:51 PM EST = -17; signal line is -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The quant prints 4 numbers yesterday and 2 today and the battle continues at the NYA 19383 line in the sand. The bulls pushed price above this critical metric and were throwing confetti and singing songs but alas, the party turns ugly and NYA loses 19383 falling on its sword. Inside your ugly, ugly like me. Staind. There is likely more drama ahead with NYA 19383 since it is a major demarcation between a cyclical bull and cyclical bear market.

The bulls are in control but the algo number is only a measly 6 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bulls are holding the ball and still running downfield. King Donnie pumped the chips so the SOX 4340 bull/bear resistance line was taken out as if it was not even there. The chip fun was sniffed out yesterday after munchtime well before the retail crowd knew what was going on. Welcome to corrupt Wall Street land of crony capitalism.

The bulls obviously need NYA above 19383 to prove that they have the strength to take stocks higher. Bulls will also send equities higher if VIX falls below 22.48 and this may occur overnight. If NYA moves above 19383, and VIX below 22.48, stocks will fly to the stratosphere. Shorts will panic creating an explosion higher in the stock market. If these two parameters do not turn bullish, however, the bulls got buptkis. Stocks will roll over and die. No More Mr Nice Guy.

The bears need to keep NYA below 19383 to prove that they maintain control of the cyclical bear market since March. In addition, bears need weaker chips, retail stocks and banks. King Donnie giveth and he often taketh away so he may say the opposite about chips tomorrow sinking the semiconductors. Bears need SOX below 4340 or XRT below 69.82 to take control of the stock market. If either metric flips short, the quant will be in position to flip to the short side, and likely will if the SPX falls below 5635 trending lower.

Watch NYA 19383, VIX 21.80, SOX 4340, and XRT 69.82. Nothing Else Matters.

5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/8/25; 3:51 PM EST = -17; signal line is -23
5/8/25; 11:39 AM EST = -3; signal line is -24
5/7/25; 3:47 PM EST = -17; signal line is -26
5/7/25; 1:32 PM EST = -33; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
5/7/25; 1:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -28
5/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 3 points below the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch yesterday to allow the move to the short side so today will be interesting.

If the bears push the SPX below 5586, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. This represents about a 20-point drop but S&P futures are up 30 points. The bears will be left at the altar if they do not get busy.

Copper jumped into the bull camp yesterday preventing the robot from flipping short but this morning copper futures are in the crapper; that will create stock market weakness.

It appears that the only way the bulls can stop the quant from flipping short is to send chips and retail stocks higher. The bulls need SOX above 4328 and/or XRT above 69.71 to keep the party going. You Gotta Fight for Your Right to Par-Tay. Both are easily doable with cash prices only pennies away from these bull/bear lines in the sand.

The stock market will likely idle until Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High today to tell international traders how to trade. The robot wants to go short but the price action says stay long probably until Powell rides in on his pale green horse. Watch copper, chips, retail stocks, and of course the NYA 19383 line in the sand as mentioned previously.

5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:33 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:54 PM EST = -33; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 12:26 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:19 PM EST = -1; signal line is -33
5/6/25; 10:26 AM EST = -17; signal line is -34
5/6/25; 9:44 AM EST = -33; signal line is -35
5/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -35
5/5/25; 3:02 PM EST = -17; signal line is -36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with lots of push and pull occurring in the stock market. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 19 points above the signal line. Chips, retail stocks and banks are sending the stock market higher while copper, volatility, and the NYA and SPX indexes, are sending the stock market lower. The battle continues. The Beat Goes On.

Let's see, to give yinz something to watch, chips, copper and the NYA index will tell the near term story. Bulls need stronger copper and NYA above 19383 to wave the all-clear flag again for more upside gains. Stocks are typically higher going into a Fed meeting on hump day. Copper futures are a smidge lower right now. The stock market upside will stall if the NYA cannot get above 19383.

The bears need to keep the red metal red and NYA below 19383 if they want to start tearing flesh off the bulls. Bears need SOX below 4328 that will signal that the bears are gaining strength.

NYA 19383 and SPX 5740 are bigtime numbers since they are the demarcation lines of a cyclical bull versus a cyclical bear market going forward. Thus, NYA 19383 is likely the most important number to watch over the next couple days. If it turns bullish (price moves above 19383), start watching the SPX 5740 line in the sand since that would return the stock market to a cyclical bull market pattern. It is currently in a cyclical bear so these two numbers are key over the next week or two and will likely tell you the path forward for many weeks and months ahead.

You can see last Wednesday was a key day with the robot going wild over the 1's and 0's. That was a bear trap and luckily, the quant was not sucked-in.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Yesterday was Cinco de Mayo so time to play the oversized bass (guitarron) and don a sombrero. Mariachi. Arriba, arriba! Andale, andale!

5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/25; 3:02 PM EST = -17; signal line is -36
5/5/25; 2:11 PM EST = -3; signal line is -37
5/5/25; 1:03 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38
5/5/25; 12:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is -39
5/5/25; 10:11 AM EST = -17; signal line is -40
5/5/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is -41
5/4/25; 7:00 PM EST = -3; signal line is -41
5/2/25; 12:06 PM EST = -3; signal line is -42
5/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -44
5/2/25; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:47 PM EST = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:36 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:17 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 2:41 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:31 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:16 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:48 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:28 PM EST = -65; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:10 PM EST = -49; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = -33; signal line is -44
4/28/25; 2:28 PM EST = -31; signal line is -45
4/28/25; 12:06 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48