Wednesday, October 21, 2026

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 7740. The banks and copper were pumped higher to create lift in the stock market. Copper faltered but closed the session in the bull camp.

The choppy whipsaw slop continues the nemesis of algorithms. The meat-grinder continues today with banks copper and volatility running the show. XLF 55.52, CPER 39.69 and VIX 16.13 are the lines in the sand and can easily flip camps in a heartbeat. Banks and copper are creating bullishness while volatility creates bearishness.

The VIX is trading at 17.47 over a stick higher than the line in the sand creating negativity. Overall, going forward, the bulls have buptkis if they cannot push the VIX below 16.13. This would have to happen to produce any sustainable upside rally.

CPER is trading at 39.30 in the premarket that would be a failure after the opening bell. If CPER loses 39.69, and the SPX sells off dropping below 7668, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side. S&P futures are up marginally in the early going.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program was flat and the actual trading gained almost +3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is up +13%, the quant program is down -7% and the actual trading is down -12%. Keybot the Quant exits QID and enters UWM. Thriller is a Halloween song.

10/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/26; 11:46 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10
10/20/26; 11:34 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/20/26; 10:29 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10; go long 7740 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +13.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -7.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.3%)
10/20/26; 10:21 AM EST = +3; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
10/20/26; 9:44 AM EST = -13; signal line is -12
10/20/26; 9:00 AM EST = -29; signal line is -12
10/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = -29; signal line is -12
10/16/26; 12:34 PM EST = -29; signal line is -11
10/16/26; 11:27 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10
10/16/26; 11:16 AM EST = +1; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 10:29 AM EST = +17; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 10:09 AM EST = +1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 3:21 AM EST = -29; signal line is -13
10/15/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -13
10/14/26; 2:55 PM EST = -45; signal line is -13
10/14/26; 12:02 PM EST = -29; signal line is -11
10/14/26; 11:44 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11; go short 7732 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -7.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -15.0%)

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