STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls send stocks higher on the Iran War ceasefire hype. The VIX drops below the 19.50 bull/bear line in the sand providing additional juice to take stocks higher. The bulls are cruising and in charge with the algo number 54 points above the signal line. 

Volatility and retail sales will tell you if the bull relief rally has legs, or not. Legs. VIX 19.50 and XRT 82.61 are the two numbers to watch and the VIX is below and XRT above both creating bullishness in the stock market (barely). Stocks will continue higher if they both remain bullish.

The relief rally will stop if either metric turns bearish. If both turn bearish, the bears will have a sliver of hope that they can reverse the stock market joy and reintroduce negativity.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell for the cash session.

4/19/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
4/12/26; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +14
4/10/26; 3:58 PM EST = +68; signal line is +11
4/10/26; 3:56 PM EST = +54; signal line is +7
4/10/26; 3:41 PM EST = +38; signal line is +4
4/10/26; 3:28 PM EST = +54; signal line is +1
4/10/26; 3:20 PM EST = +68; signal line is -1
4/10/26; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is -4
4/10/26; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is -6
4/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is -9
4/8/26; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Bulls and bears came to play on Monday and it was a give and take battle until the SPX ran higher giving the bulls the upper hand.

The cyclical bear market was fleeting due to the announcement of a ceasefire with the Iran War. The cyclical bulls are back in business. Why can't King Donnie achieve a ceasefire in the Ukraine War when he was supposed to end that conflict 24 hours after taking office? Trumpski said, as he enjoyed company with Putin, that he did not want a ceasefire in the Ukraine War. Go figure. Nonetheless, the announcement about the Iran War creates a record stock market orgy on Wall Street. Will it last?

Short sellers had to cover quickly creating the strong rally. The bulls are clearly in charge of the stock market with the algo number 64 points above the signal line. Everyone is in the bull camp except for one key metric; volatility.

Despite the party atmosphere and traders buying any stock with a heartbeat, the VIX was unable to drop below its key line in the sand at 19.53. VIX is trading at 21.53 in real-time so the bulls need 2 ticks lower before they can throw the big party with confetti, booze and dancing girls.

Retail, banks and copper create the upside joy. Copper needs to drop about -1.7% to help the bears and it is down -0.8% currently. Bears need weaker retail stocks, banks and copper. Bulls need the VIX below 19.53 to signal the all-clear for upside glory ahead. For now, the bulls are celebrating singing Paloma Blanca. It's a new day, it's a new way, and I fly up to the sun.

4/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/10/26; 10:00 AM EST =
4/8/26; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is -10
4/6/26; 2:15 PM EST = +6; signal line is -14
4/6/26; 2:04 PM EST = -8; signal line is -15
4/6/26; 1:28 PM EST = +6; signal line is -16
4/6/26; 1:18 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/6/26; 9:48 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17
4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Happy Easter. Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 9 points above the signal line. That is not much so the caution flag remains out.

King Donnie is spouting threats all weekend long now cursing at Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz. A day ago he said he did not care about the straits. Trumpski threatens to blow up power plants and other infrastructure on Tuesday that will screw the Iranian people that wanted help. Poor American kids will be sent off to fight in Hormuz, like Vietnam years ago. If you are lucky to make it back, when someone asks you what war you were in, you will say Muz, like a few decades ago when you would say Nam.

As previously posted, bears need NYA below 21750 to wreak havoc in the stock market. Bulls need SPX above 6590 to prove they got game going forward. Status quo means more choppy slop.

In addition, bulls need stronger banks and copper to signal the all-clear for big gains ahead. Bulls need XLF above 50.40 and/or CPER above 34.63 that will catapult the stock market bigtime higher.

Bears need weaker semiconductors in addition to the NYA index if they want to start growling again. Bears need SOX below 7710 to create negativity in the stock market. If either NYA or SOX join the bear camp, either one would do, and the SPX would drop below 6475, Keybot the Quant may flip short. If either NYA or SOX turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play.

Bulls need a stronger SPX and stronger banks and copper to throw confetti for the stock market going forward. Bears need a weaker NYA index and weaker chips to reopen the gates of Hell for equities.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. Here comes Peter Cottontail, hopping down the bunny trail... Merv Shiner at the Martin factory. The Martin acoustic guitars are excellent and made by hand in Pennsylvania.

4/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/10/26; 10:00 AM EST =
4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/1/26; 2:08 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through more choppy slop. Stocks tank yesterday morning due to King Donnie's braggadocio speech that he will bomb Iran into the Stone Age. Global markets do not want to hear asinine language. The quant did not flinch at the bear trap that snared as stocks took off higher after the flush lower into the 3-day Easter weekend. The US stock market is closed today but the Jobs Report is on tap.

SPX 6589.50 opens the gates to Hell with price below at 6582.69. NYA 21750 closes the gates to Hell with price above at 22194. One of these two will flinch and that tells you the direction of the US stock market. If SPX recovers, it is party-time going forward. If NYA fails, we tumble into the abyss of Hades.

Chips, banks and copper control the destiny of the two metrics above. These are the parameters controlling the stock market currently. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 9 points above the signal line. After the Easter Bunny runs away, these signposts will light the way. What will the signs say? Signs by the Five Man Electrical Band.

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/26; 2:08 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/1/26; 11:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull party continues. Chips turn bullish providing more upside fuel for the stock market. The bulls are in control with the algo number 23 points above the signal line.

Bears need SPX below 6589 (it is teetering; this target level jumps higher because a new month begins today), SOX below 7720 and/or NYA below 21745. For now, they are bullish drinking the Trumpski vodka that says the Iran War is ending. Bears likely need 2 of the 3 to turn bearish to resume the downward slide in stocks.

Bulls need stronger banks and copper to create more upside. Of course, they need the three parameters above to remain bullish and XLF 50.45 and/or CPER 34.65 will create lots more upside fuel for equities.

SPX is walking on the 6589 canyon edge right now at 6601. CPER (copper) is in the neighborhood of turning bullish if it receives a push. There are lots of moving parts right now but SPX, SOX, NYA, XLF and CPER will dictate the trail forward. The bunny trail chasing rabbits. Looking for the White Rabbit with Gracie. Go ask Alice.

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/26; 11:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17
4/1/26; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is -17
3/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side before the session ended yesterday at SPX 6526. The whipsaw choppy slop is relentless. It is market craziness to see the SPX down a couple hundred points then recover it all in a matter of three days. The Easter Bunny laid a brown egg in the bull's basket last week and then hopped onto the bear's basket yesterday and laid a bigger brown egg. Gene Autry made the Peter Cottontail song famous. Kids enjoy it this time of year.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The bulls win with the SPX regaining 6503-6504 and NYA regaining 21740 but this battle will likely continue. Stronger chips will bolster the bull case. Bears need the SPX and NYA to drop back below those key levels.

March trading and Q1 are in the bag with April trading beginning today. Watch out for the April Fool's Day pranks. There are only two trading days remaining in the week and Easter weekend begins.

On the last trade that ran less than a week, the quant program and actual trading each lose a half percent. It is death by a thousand cuts. O Death by Ralph Stanley. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 and the quant program are both down about -5% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -4%. No one is happy this year with the never-ending sideways pig slop. Keybot exited SH and entered DIA. Will this direction last more than 10 minutes?

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -17
3/31/26; 3:37 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16; go long 6526 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -4.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)
3/31/26; 2:50 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short
3/31/26; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -16
3/31/26; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -14
3/30/26; 12:28 PM EST = -38; signal line is -13
3/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -24; signal line is -11
3/30/26; 9:48 AM EST = -38; signal line is -10
3/30/26; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9
3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -8
3/27/26; 1:56 PM EST = -38; signal line is -7
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -6
3/26/26; 1:55 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/26/26; 1:54 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3; go short 6497 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -5.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market falls apart due to ongoing bad news about the Iran War. King Donnie may be in over his orange head; this week will shed light on the matter. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 30 points below the signal line. It sounds like a lot but in these wild markets, things can change quickly so the caution flag remains out.

SPX 6497 and NYA 21707 tell the market story. Stocks were sold off on Friday but trying to hang in there. Then, as previously described, the NYA failed opening the gates to Hell. Prices are now below both lines in the sand celebrating a cyclical bear market ahead for the stock market.

Obviously, the bulls need to regain both these levels as fast as possible. Each day stocks are below creates the greater likelihood that the entire year will be soggy for equities. If bulls can push NYA back above 21707 that will at least stop the selling and send stocks sideways until it is determined if the SPX can recover, or not.

A big crash to the downside remains suspect because of the Trumpflation in commodities right now and the extended buoyancy of utilities. It would be odd for the major crash to occur without them leading or at least coincidental. Keybot the Quant prints three prescheduled numbers this week two on Tuesday, that is the end of the month and first quarter, and Friday morning before the opening bell.

The price action is dictated by the Iran War and we are along for the ride. Ride Captain Ride upon your mystery ship.

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -8
3/27/26; 1:56 PM EST = -38; signal line is -7
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -6
3/26/26; 1:55 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side yesterday at SPX 6497 as the stock market goes to pot on Iran War negativity. The choppy whipsaw slop for the last half-year is getting old. It is difficult to make money in non-trending markets. It does not matter if it trends up or down just pick one already. Stocks may whipsaw back to the long side today the way things are going. Like the old joke about the weather, stick around, in 10 minutes it will change again.

Yesterday's price action was interesting since price fell out of bed due to chips failing but the NYA index did not. The critical SPX 6501 line in the sand, however, did give way and it is a biggie.

SOX 7755, SPX 6501 and NYA 21701 are the three lines in the sand controlling stock market direction currently. The chips fail to 7586 so the bulls have some work to do to bring it back above 7755 to help the stock market. SOX and the SPX are creating negativity but the NYA is still bullish.

SPX 6501 and NYA 21701 are cyclical stock market indicators the two most important metrics that exist. The SPX is below forecasting a cyclical bear market ahead while the NYA is not convinced. The battle makes the path forward in the short term an easy call.

If NYA drops below 21701, and joins the SPX in the cyclical bear camp, the gates to Hell are wide open and stocks will collapse.

If SPX regains the 6501 level, the bears are all growl and no bite and stocks will likely recover. If this is the case, watch the chips to see if the upside has legs. Stocks will remain in a weak state if the semiconductors remain subdued.

The utilities remain in the bull camp throughout the market turmoil. This hints that the major crash lower for the stock market will likely not occur right now in the near-term time frame, although you never know. If utes were in the bear camp, we would be facing Armageddon now, but they are not. Negativity will likely develop in the utilities going forward.

For the last trade that ran for a day, the quant program and actual trading are both hit with a two percent loss giving back a big part of the prior gains. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down a touch more than -5%. The quant program and actual trading this year is down about -4% so no one is happy so far but there is a lot of year remaining. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH. The use of single ETF's, due to the choppy whipsaw price action, will continue for another month.

Keybot prints a prescheduled number shortly after the opening bell this morning. The market is going up, going down, going up, down, down, up, anyway you want it, let it roll, as Jimmy taught us. Baby What You Want Me To Do.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/26; 1:55 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/26/26; 1:54 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3; go short 6497 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -5.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)
3/26/26; 10:47 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains long
3/25/26; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3; go long 6620 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -3.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 6620. The stock market this year, however, remains a sideways choppy pile of pig slop. Stocks are moving on the Iran War news that impacts oil and other commodities.

Chips and the NYA index are running the show. SOX 7760 and NYA 21690 remain the bull/bear lines in the sand, respectively, moving slightly higher with each passing minute. Prices are above so both are in the bull camp creating yesterday's joy.

S&P futures are tanking this morning but watch the two metrics above to actually know where stocks are going. If a flush lower occurs at the opening bell of the cash session, and one or both metrics turn bearish, there is negativity ahead.

If the flush lower occurs, but both metrics remain bullish, the downside move is likely a fake-out and stocks should recover. Chips are under pressure this morning so pay attention to SOX, XSD and SMH to know what is going on. Pressure Drop by Toots and the Maytals.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program gains about three percent and the actual trading gains about two percent. For the year thus far, with Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar) almost in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500 is down about three percent, and the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down about two percent. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY remaining in single ETF's.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/25/26; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3; go long 6620 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -3.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.7%)
3/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -5
3/20/26; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/20/26; 3:29 PM EST = -38; signal line is -3
3/20/26; 2:37 PM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/20/26; 10:15 AM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +6; signal line is -0 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 1:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 12:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/19/26; 12:07 PM EST = +6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 11:25 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/19/26; 11:17 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 11:02 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/12/26; 2:40 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/12/26; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:26 PM EST = -6; signal line is +0
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is +2
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the bull orgy in the stock market brought on by King Donnie balking on the Iran War deadline and ultimatum he imposed. The orange dude extends his threats against Iranian power stations until a Saturday deadline. Of course he does since it is the weekend and he can gauge the response of the drama. Then, on Sunday afternoon, or just before the opening bell on Monday morning, he will provide comments to try and manipulate the markets. It worked yesterday with futures down large, and then pivoted on a dime, flying skyward as Trumpski backed away from his threats and bloviations. What a mess.

Chips and the NYA index jump into the bull camp out of the gate yesterday placing the quant in position to go long but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. At 10:18 AM EST, the robot was a hair away from flipping long but did not. It balked like Donnie.

The quant wants to flip long with the algo number 10 points above the signal line. If the SPX rallies above 6652, a tall order, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, therefore, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

The bears have to pull semiconductors and the NYA index back in their camps if they plan to take equities lower. SOX 7750 and NYA 21688 are the two key lines in the sand. Prices are above creating the bull joy. Bears need either one to turn negative and that will be enough to maintain the continued green light for lower and lower stock market prices. If both turn negative, the rout is back on and the blood will flow again on Wall Street.

SOX 7750 and NYA 21688 will tell you the direction of the stock market going forward. SMH is down -0.6% in the premarket so it looks like the chips are down, literally and figuratively. Let's see; a -0.3% drop in the SOX will likely send it back into the bear camp and create a pall on the stock market and chips are down trice that in early trading. The bulls hope for no more rain but the bears wish for a downpour. Time to groove to No Rain.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through all the ongoing drama with the algo number 19 points below the signal line so the bears are feeling pretty good about themselves.  The SPX 6502.45 and NYA 21661 lines in the sand gave way on Friday opening the gates of Hell and causing the big flush lower in equities. The SPX recovers to 6506 at the end of the session with the bulls trying to keep the bears at bay.

Chips also failed on Friday creating stock market trouble. Thus, the 3 metrics controlling stock market direction right now are SPX 6502, NYA 21661, and SOX 7765. The NYA and SOX prices are below the lines in the sand creating market bearishness. The SPX is above its line in the sand creating market bullishness. The interplay of these three parameters dictate the path ahead for stocks.

The bears need SPX back below 6502 to prove they still got game and the carnage has only just begun.

The bulls need NYA above 21661 that will immediately place the bulls at ease knowing that they have at least stopped the downward pressure. Bulls also need stronger chips and for the SOX to regain 7765. If both metrics turn bullish, and the SPX is running above 6595, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip long so for now, the caution flag will remain out. Monday is going to tell you a lot about the path ahead.

The SPX 6502 and NYA 21661 metrics are the two most important stock market indicators right now. If SPX joins the NYA in the bear camp, there will be Hell to pay. If these two indicators remain failed for a few days, it tells you that the United States stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market pattern. Stocks must recover and move far above these cliff-edges if the bulls want to maintain a cyclical bull market. There is a lot on the line this week.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the stock market opens. The market is a wild one. A Real Wild Child. We need some Iggy. There was only one Iggy. The Crocodile Dundee movie back in the 80's featured the tune in the background.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -5
3/20/26; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/20/26; 3:29 PM EST = -38; signal line is -3
3/20/26; 2:37 PM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/20/26; 10:15 AM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +6; signal line is -0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot wants to flip long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. Bulls need to keep SOX above 7770 and push the SPX above 6637 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That equates to a 31-point gain for the SPX tomorrow so watch the S&P futures overnight to see if it is on the docket.

The bears need to pull SOX below 7770 to create further market pain. Bears need NYA below 21665 and/or SPX 6506 to open the gates to Hell. These two metrics are bigtime longer term parameters so if they fail, or even one of them, it is serious business and if long the stock market, you will need to start panicking.

Bulls win with SPX above 6637. Bears win with SOX below 7770 (weaker chips). It's a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. Bob Dylan and Donovan hanging out

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +6; signal line is -0 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 1:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd stock market action continues. The robot is active today and champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line, but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Domo arigato, Mr Roboto. My brain IBM.

The bulls need the SPX above 6705 to flip Keybot the Quant to the long side, unless something wildly bullish happens to make it occur faster. 

The bears continue to run the show even though the model wants to flip long. The battle today is chips. Watch SOX 7767.80 as the key bull/bear line in the sand. As chips go, so goes the stock market. If SOX remains above 7768 moving higher, so will stocks. If SOX collapses below 7768, it is time for equities to slide down the rabbit hole.

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 12:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/19/26; 12:07 PM EST = +6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 11:25 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/19/26; 11:17 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but wants to flip long. The whipsaw coin-flip stock market continues all year long. Stocks did not want to make any big moves ahead of the big Fed decision tomorrow when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells traders how to trade.

Stocks are bullish about 80% of the time going into a Fed decision so traders jumped the gun and were front-running this expectation out of the gate on Monday (yesterday). Interestingly, the Fed meeting sits on the peak of the new moon for the month at 9:23 PM EST tomorrow. Stocks are typically bearish about two-thirds of the time moving through the new moon so that will be interesting to watch as Powell performs his financial tap dance.

The last few days have not changed. Chips and copper are running the show. The algorithm is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 9 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX, starting at 6716, rallies tomorrow above 6754, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That is +38 SPX points so you can watch the futures overnight. It may seem like a lot but the indexes are making moves far bigger and in only the time it takes to grab a cup of coffee or tea. The bulls have it on a platter if they want it.

The semiconductor and copper lines in the sand are SOX 7772 and CPER 35.50, respectively. SOX price is above creating bullishness in the stock market. Mister Copper is back to lying on the gurney and is below the line in the sand creating stock market bearishness. This is why you see the market indecision. The weakness today occurred when SOX dropped to test the line in the sand and then stocks rallied as chips ran higher into the close.

Bulls win big and will likely flip the quant long if the SPX moves above 6754. Bears will prove they can still take stocks far lower if they pull SOX below 7772. If the semiconductors weaken tomorrow, the stock market will probably fall apart to the downside.

Watch chips and copper. And of course pretty Venus was her name. She's got it. It is interesting that the Gen Z's and Gen Alpha's are updating a lot of the 60's and 70's culture and words for themselves. Good on them. They are digging the vibe. Vibe and vibration is from decades ago and used again now. Good Vibrations. Before long, young folks will be saying dig again.

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 11:02 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/12/26; 2:40 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/12/26; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short, but wants to go long, as the market turmoil continues. It is all about semiconductors and copper. Bulls came to play on Monday with their chests puffed out but their hopes deflated on Tuesday unable to flip the model long despite the algo number 10 points above the signal line.  The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Today will be interesting with CPI data on deck in three hours.

CPER 35.68 and SOX 7801 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. Both are above creating stock market bullishness but the bulls are unable to capitalize on the situation, at least not yet.

Copper futures need to drop about a percent to send CPER to the bear camp, and keep the bears in business, and copper is down -1.6% so it looks like the bears want to maintain control of the stock market. S&P futures were positive overnight but are now down -15 points as copper leaks lower.

If bulls send the SPX above 6845 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long but this is a tall ask since the SPX begins at 6781. At the same time, copper is down more than -1% so the bears want to flex their muscles and maintain their grip on the market. In the 1960's, kids in southwestern Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh area, would watch the Ricki & Copper television show; Ricki Wertz and her friendly dog, Copper. 

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 10 points above the signal line. Tomorrow will be a big day. Stocks were down big until King Donnie said the Iran War was near completion. Of course it is a bloviation but the markets did not care. Oil drops like a rock and equities explode higher intraday.

Copper and chips create the big rally today. Copper turned positive and that is when the stock market turned around and started to rally to beat The Band. The Weight. Watch the SOX 7796 and CPER 35.66 lines in the sand. Price is above both creating the positivity in equites.

Bears need to turn 1 of the 2 metrics bearish to breathe easier and resume the dark clouds and negativity. Bulls need the SPX to rise above 6810 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long so a rise of +14 points is needed in the S&P futures. Oh my. Donnie Trumpski was talking a minute ago and S&P futures are down -22 points. This year's sideways whipsaw choppy pig slop continues. Bulls need the SPX to move slowly higher and not gap-up at the opening bell. If a gap-up occurs, the robot will likely delay the move for 90 minutes.

Bears win with weaker chips and copper and win big if both turn bearish again. Bulls win with the SPX above 6810. The beat goes on. Ba-la, ba-la, la-la. Monday Monday. Monday, Monday, can't trust that day.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:26 PM EST = -6; signal line is +0
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama intensifies. Oil futures shoot over one hundo. The clock just fell off the wall in the Oval Office. King Donnie's orange head is turning red worrying about the stock market going down the drain due to the Iran War.

S&P futures are down over 100 points responding to the wild spike higher in oil prices, that will create higher gasoline prices, that will negatively impact consumer sentiment and spending.

The bears have the ball with the algo number 23 points below the signal line. Yinz probably noticed the drama with the red metal. As copper goes, so goes the stock market. The quant identifies CPER 35.65 as the bull/bear line in the sand and price closed for the weekend at...... wait for it ......... wait a bit longer for it ........ 35.63, in the bear camp creating negativity, but only two cents away from the bull camp.

If CPER remains below 35.65 and moving lower, the stock market will deteriorate. If CPER moves above 35.65, the stock market selling will stop and stabilize. Thus, watch copper futures overnight. Whatever direction they go, the stock market will likely follow. Bears benefit from weaker copper, weaker utilities, and weaker commodities. Copper is getting bludgeoned down -2.5%.

Bulls need stronger copper and also higher chips, retail stocks, and banks, and lower volatility. A lot can happen overnight, but it appears that the bears want to come and play tomorrow. Let It Drop.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is +2
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 6805 not much of a surprise considering the non-stop sideways choppy slop this year. The stock market is controlled by chips and copper right now. Both jump back into the bear camp creating the flip back to the short side.

SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The path ahead remains a coin-flip because both metrics can easily flip bullish tomorrow, especially after the important US Monthly Jobs Report. The drop today and market turmoil is a surprise from the context that a flat boring day would have been expected into the jobs numbers in the morning. King Donnie Trumpski (the president) is given the jobs numbers the day before so did the orange head provide a heads-up to his wealthy friends so they could insider trade today?

SOX is at 7822 recovering late-day only 35 points away from the line in the sand so the semiconductors can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. CPER is at the 35.58 only 7 cents from the line in the sand so copper can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. Bulls need 1 of the 2 to turn bullish to stop the market selling and both are likely needed to flip the model long. If both parameters turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6870, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw long. The whipsaw slop this year is getting old.

Watch chips and copper because they tell you the direction of the stock market. 

On the last trade that ran for about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses -1.7%. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down almost a percent. The quant program is down -5% and the actual trading is down -4%. Choppy whipsaw slop is Kryptonite against algorithms. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into the single ETF's again due to the whipsaw. The model will remain in single ETF's until early April to reduce risk.

This week, the bears had the ball and choked. The bulls took the ball and they fumbled. The bears have the ball back, running down field, but their shoes are untied and may trip up the furry critters. It is a coin-flip stock market. Jobs report on deck. Everyone's Working for the Weekend. Loverboy. This song would play non-stop on the Friday's during the 1980's into the 90's, even into the 00's. It was the end of the work week anthem that begins with some cowbell. Two days of freedom ahead for the working stiffs.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)
3/5/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at SPX 6866 about an hour after the opening bell. It is more choppy, whipsaw slop. The whole year is sideways chop suey chewing up bulls and bears alike. It is the worst markets for algorithms to operate in and some houses will pull the plug on their models since they get whipsawed too much. The quant does not care which direction the stock market goes in but it is important to at least have a short trend in that direction.

Today reverses yesterday's weakness in chips and copper so stocks bounce. SOX 7860 and CPER 35.65 are the two lines in the sand. Bulls need to keep these on their side and at the same time boost retail stocks and banks, and lower volatility.

Bears need to push SOX below 7860 and/or CPER below 35.65 and they are back in business. Any 1 of the 2 would do and the quant would be back in position to flip short. Thus, the stock market remains a sloppy sideways coin-flip this year and we are already into March.

Semiconductors and copper tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised to see another whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading are flat or a marginal loss. The benchmark SPX is flatter than a newlywed's souffle this year while the quant program is down about -4% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent in 2026. Keybot the Quant exits DOG and enters SSO now back into the 2x ETF's since the internal whipsaw timer expires. This may not be good because stocks remain whipsaw slop and it is better to be in the single ETF's now to reduce risk, however, Keybot is smarter than humans so we will see what the 1's and 0's say.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)
3/4/26; 10:12 AM EST = +10; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
3/4/26; 9:44 AM EST = -6; signal line is +7
3/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
3/3/26; 3:53 PM EST = -22; signal line is +8
3/3/26; 2:42 PM EST = -6; signal line is +9
3/3/26; 2:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is +10
3/3/26; 1:12 PM EST = -6; signal line is +11
3/3/26; 12:06 PM EST = -22; signal line is +12
3/3/26; 11:07 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 2:38 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 11:28 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 10:55 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/24/26; 1:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears come to play today. Bears whack chips and copper lower dragging them into the bear camp creating a bloody day on Wall and Broad. The bears are cruising with the algo number 35 points below the signal line.

Bears need to keep semiconductors and copper weak to continue the downside decay in the stock market. Bulls need one of the metrics to turn bullish to stop the selling pressure. The lines in the sand identified by the robot are SOX 7867 and CPER 35.64, respectively. The current prices creating the stock market negativity are below each line in the sand.

If SOX remains below 7867 and CPER below 35.64, the selling in the stock market will continue. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

Bulls need either metric to turn bullish and that will be enough to stop the selling and equities will muddle along sideways. Bulls likely need both metrics to turn bullish to stage a relief rally but even that may not be enough to position the quant to flip long. Let's see what the bears got over the coming days.

Neil Sedaka croaked. That dude wrote a lot of hit songs. Humorously, with that high voice (instead of a soprano he would be called a 'boyish tenor'), he did not reach puberty until he was 30. At high school dances in the 60's and 70's, the boys would muster up courage to ask that pretty classmate to dance, and there would be a Neil Sedaka song playing in the background. Breakin' Up Is Hard to Do.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14