STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side a little bit ago at SPX 3838. Utilities and the NYA index jump into the bull camp and then the banks join the fun sending stocks to the moon. The Santa Claus rally arrives. Santy!

In a few hours, the quant goes from the bear camp with the algo number 21 points below the signal line to the bull camp with the algo number 27 points above the signal line. XLF, NYA and UTIL are controlling stock market direction. The bulls closed the UTIL 975 trap-door so they can party above.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program gains about +2% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +5%. For the year, with only one more trading day remaining (tomorrow), the benchmark SPX is down -20%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +32% on the year and the actual trading generated by the algo is up +47% in 2022 maybe it will tag +50% before time runs out? Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/29/22; 10:12 AM EST = +0; signal line is -27; go long 3838; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +31.7%)(Actual results this trade = +4.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +47.2%)
12/29/22; 9:39 AM EST = -16; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
12/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = -30; signal line is -26
12/28/22; 3:14 PM EST = -46; signal line is -25
12/28/22; 2:58 PM EST = -30; signal line is -23
12/28/22; 2:49 PM EST = -16; signal line is -21 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 2:01 PM EST = -30; signal line is -19
12/28/22; 12:56 PM EST = -16; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 11:55 AM EST = -30; signal line is -16
12/27/22; 10:24 AM EST = -16; signal line is -14
12/27/22; 10:05 AM EST = -32; signal line is -13
12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is -11
12/23/22; 3:59 PM EST = -16; signal line is -10
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is -9
12/23/22; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -7
12/21/22; 3:37 PM EST = -16; signal line is -4
12/21/22; 3:12 PM EST = -32; signal line is -3
12/21/22; 12:53 PM EST = -16; signal line is +0
12/21/22; 12:18 PM EST = -32; signal line is +2
12/21/22; 10:38 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
12/21/22; 10:27 AM EST = -32; signal line is +6
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is +8
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is +11
12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -37; signal line is +14
12/16/22; 3:59 PM EST = -37; signal line is +16
12/16/22; 3:34 PM EST = -21; signal line is +19
12/16/22; 10:30 AM EST = -37; signal line is +21
12/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -21; signal line is +23
12/15/22; 3:47 PM EST = -5; signal line is +25
12/15/22; 3:02 PM EST = +9; signal line is +26
12/15/22; 11:18 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
12/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is +29; go short 3934; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +29.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after the bulls threatened to take control. The NYA index and utilities both fail a very big deal. The bears need weaker copper and higher volatility to send stocks lower but that is not on tap thus far today.

Thus, UTIL 975.42 and NYA 15110 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand dictating the stock market direction forward. If both remain in the bear camp, the stock market will remain soggy. If they drop sharply from here (UTIL 975.42 is the trap-door for stock), stocks are going to collapse lower.

However, if either parameter can turn bullish (price moves above the numbers shown), the bulls are going to be back in the business of creating a bottom. Keybot the Quant likely needs to see both parameters to turn bullish to signal that the imminent turn to the long side is in play and the SPX would also need to rally about 65 points today, above 3848, to flip the quant long. In these erratic markets, it would not be surprising to see it happen.

If neither UTIL or NYA can recover their key levels, it is a big negative for the US stock market. If tomorrow ends this way with both in the bear camp, a negative start to the new year is likely on tap. Conversely, if one or both parameters turn bullish, it tells you that a strong rally is likely beginning to greet the new year.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/28/22; 3:14 PM EST = -46; signal line is -25
12/28/22; 2:58 PM EST = -30; signal line is -23
12/28/22; 2:49 PM EST = -16; signal line is -21 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 2:01 PM EST = -30; signal line is -19
12/28/22; 12:56 PM EST = -16; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 11:55 AM EST = -30; signal line is -16
12/27/22; 10:24 AM EST = -16; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls are flexing their muscles. UTIL tags 982 above the 975 bull/bear line in the sand so the bulls are puffing their chests out even though the bears are still holding the stock market ball. UTIL above 975 is a huge deal as previously explained.

The algo number is only 2 points below the signal line, thus, a couple scenarios may play out. First, the utilities may start to oscillate above and below 975. Under for a few minutes or half-hour, then back above for a while, you get the idea, jogging, this tells you that the quant is likely getting ready to flip long.

The second scenario would be the banks or commodities joining the bull camp which will likely cause Keybot to go long. If XLF moves above 34.08 and/or GTX above 3528, either one will do, and if the SPX is above 3846 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If both turn bullish, stocks will be rallying strongly higher. (GTX is shown on stockcharts.com as $GTX)

The bears need to drag UTIL back below 975 and keep it trending lower to signal that stock market pain and misery is the path ahead. Same-o with the NYA 15112 bull/bear line in the sand. Bears need NYA back below 15112 pronto or the bulls are going to start pushing stocks higher.

Thus, bears must keep banks and commodities negative while pulling UTIL under 975 and NYA below 15112. If this occurs, there will be Hell to pay and the quant will remain short.

Bulls win big if XLF moves above 34.08 and if GTX moves above 3528. Any 1 of the 2 turning bullish, with the SPX above 3846 trending higher, will probably flip the quant long. 

There may be excitement on tap as the year end. A few years back, the quant flipped sides in the last minute of the last trading day of the year so you never know what will happen. The robot will be rezeroed for 2023 on the weekend.

Looking at the pre-market, with the opening bell for the regular US session about 1 hour away, XLF pops to 34.06. Utilities are also trading higher. The bulls are puffing their chests out.

12/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/27/22; 10:24 AM EST = -16; signal line is -14
12/27/22; 10:05 AM EST = -32; signal line is -13
12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is -11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Were you watching utilities? UTIL comes up to the critical 975; that is quite a sight. If UTIL remains above 974.95, the bulls are going to send the stock market higher. If UTIL fails at 974.95, the stock market will become negative.

There are a lot of moving parts but the stock market direction ahead likely depends on utes, the NYA index, banks and commodities. The first two parameters are sitting in the bull camp creating higher stock prices while the latter two are in the bear camp creating negativity in stocks.

Bulls need to keep UTIL above 974.95 and NYA above 15152. At the same time, bulls must push XLF above 34.09 and/or GTX above 3529. Either one will do which will likely trigger Keybot the Quant to flip long. If both flip bullish, a big stock market rally will be underway.

Bears need to keep XLF below 34.09 and GTX below 3529 and at the same time, pull UTIL below 974.95 and/or NYA below 15152. One of the parameters turning bearish will send the stock market lower and if both turn bearish, stocks will be falling apart.

An interesting couple-three weeks are ahead for utilities. UTIL 974.95 is the bull/bear line in the sand that has big ramifications for the path forward. If UTIL remains above moving higher, there will likely NOT be a major selloff or crash to begin 2023. Instead, the stock market will rally or remain buoyant and the next significant drop lower for the US stock market will occur further into 2023. So there is a lot riding on utes.

In addition, UTIL 1012 is a key bull/bear line in the sand for this week if price moves higher. If UTIL hits 1012, the US stock market will be screaming higher. For the first trading week of the year, 1/2/23, UTIL 979 is a bull/bear line in the sand, and for the week of 1/9/23, UTIL 888 is a bull/bear line in the sand. You can see the look-back comparisons become easier which favors bulls. If UTIL is above 979 next Monday, 1/2/23, stocks will be rallying higher.

If the bears want to sustain negativity in the stock market, they need to send UTIL below 974.95 pronto and then send utes far lower.

US stocks are not trading due to the Christmas holiday but will begin trading again tomorrow morning.

Keybot the Quant logs another great year and the algorithm program will be rezeroed next weekend to assess 2022 and begin 2023.

12/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is -11
12/23/22; 3:59 PM EST = -16; signal line is -10
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is -9
12/23/22; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -7
12/21/22; 3:37 PM EST = -16; signal line is -4
12/21/22; 3:12 PM EST = -32; signal line is -3
12/21/22; 12:53 PM EST = -16; signal line is +0
12/21/22; 12:18 PM EST = -32; signal line is +2
12/21/22; 10:38 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
12/21/22; 10:27 AM EST = -32; signal line is +6
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is +8
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number now 60 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising with their feet, er paws, up on the dashboard. The stock market sh*t the bed since the back half of last week.

Yesterday, chips, utes and the NYA index remain bearish insuring that the bearish malaise will continue. Bulls better push UTIL above 975 or there will be Hell to pay going forward.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker copper to continue the stock market sell-off. It is interesting that despite the weakness the last few days, the VIX is not shooting higher. Bears must push VIX above 24.96 to prove that carnage will occur. If the bulls can continue to prevent VIX 24.96 from occurring, stocks will start to recover.

Bears need CPER below 22.38 now at 22.73. This equates to a -1.5% drop in copper futures now trading up +0.2% so now the bears need a -1.7% drop in the red metal futures. If volatility and copper remain in the bull camp and will not turn sour, the stock market will recover.

12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is +11
12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -37; signal line is +14

'Tis the Season

Happy Hannukah and Merry Christmas. Happy Kwanza, Boxing Day, Festivus and New Years, too. It's almost 2023. Time flies when you're having fun.

Thanks to those that support and have supported The Keystone Speculator and Keybot the Quant blogs. The blogs donate to the charities listed in the margins below including humanitarian aid into Ukraine and elsewhere, especially food relief through the worldwide networks, and even helping out Animal Friends that protect and help animals and pets. The Gary Sinise (he is the actor that played Lieutenant Dan the amputee in the "Forest Gump" movie) Foundation is a great charity that helps veterans and first responders.

If you have winter coats, hats, scarfs and gloves that do not fit anymore or do not suit your style, donate them to a local thrift store, especially children's boots. Avoid the big-box thrift stores instead find the small shops ran by volunteers in run-down communities. These folks know the working poor in the area that simply need a little extra help and other folks that are in need.

Since you are buying a bunch of food to celebrate the holidays this week, it is time to clean the pantry and cabinet shelves. Place all your canned goods in a sturdy box and wipe your cabinets clean.

Drop the box of canned goods and pasta at the food bank, or at a thrift store since they usually take food donations, or keep your ears open for organizations conducting food drives and help them out, and then you can go to the grocery store to restock your house. It is fascinating that going to bed hungry as a child is something you will never forget as long as you live.

Don't forget to read "The Gift of the Magi" by the brilliant O Henry this time each year.

Ho, ho, ho. Jingle Bell Rock.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The wheels fell off the stock market on Friday morning with utilities failing. Also, the chips are down, literally and figuratively, creating further weakness. The bears are cruising with the algo number over 50 points below the signal line. The bull's sh*t the bed last week.

UTIL lost the 975 level opening a trap-door for stocks. UTIL begins this week at 963 and bulls need it back above 975. If the utes remain sub 975, it is a terrible omen for the stock market going forward.

Watch the chips since that was the main game occurring on Friday. Bulls need SOX back above 2637.40 (now at 2636.10). This is uber important and will tell you the direction of the stock market ahead. If SOX remains below 2637, the stock market will fall apart.

Bulls also need NYA above 15188 (now at 15018) pronto to stop the selling and prove that a come-back rally can materialize.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, another on Wednesday morning and the third on Friday morning going into Christmas weekend.

12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST =
12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -37; signal line is +14
12/16/22; 3:59 PM EST = -37; signal line is +16
12/16/22; 3:34 PM EST = -21; signal line is +19
12/16/22; 10:30 AM EST = -37; signal line is +21
12/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -21; signal line is +23
12/15/22; 3:47 PM EST = -5; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after the wild and crazy Thursday bloodbath. NYA recovers above 15192 but then rolls over again ending the day at 15182.

Bulls need NYA above 15192 to bring the selling to a stop. If NYA remains below, 15192, there will be Hell to pay.

Bears need SOX below 2638, UTIL below 975 and VIX above 24.90. Any 1 of these 3 jumping into the bear camp will create another big leg lower in stocks. Two parameters will be a huge selloff and if all 3 turn bearish, the blood and carnage will be epic.

Bulls need NYA above 15192 to stop the selling and stabilize the stock market. If chips, utes or volatility fail into the bear camp as described, stocks will take another big leg lower.

12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/15/22; 3:47 PM EST = -5; signal line is +25
12/15/22; 3:02 PM EST = +9; signal line is +26
12/15/22; 11:18 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short after the opening bell at SPX 3934 after the wheels fell off the bank and retail sectors. Shortly thereafter, the NYA index loses 15191 and stocks begin puking profusely. The SPX is collapsing over 100 points.

Bulls need NYA above 15191 and/or XLF above 34.40 to right the ship and stop the selling. If either one of these occur, the downside is not going to be a big deal.

Bears need SOX below 2642 and UTIL below 975 to create more stock market carnage. The path forward will become bloody and ugly if either, or both, of these fail.

Thus, bulls need a stronger NYA index and banks, and retail stocks, while bears need weaker semiconductors and utilities. One of those parameters will flinch and tell you what is going on.

Stay on guard for a whipsaw because the markets are erratic and unstable.

On the last trade, that lasted over a month, the quant program and actual trading each gain about +2%. Humorously, that was a lot of time, and drama, for a lousy 2% but its better than losing money. For the year, with only a couple weeks remaining, the benchmark S&P 500, which is the United States stock market, the SPX, is down -18%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +29% on the year thus far and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +42%. Keybot exits QQQ and enters SDS back into the 2x leveraged ETF's after the whipsaw timer expired.

12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/15/22; 11:18 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
12/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is +29; go short 3934; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +29.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.4%)
12/13/22; 8:35 AM EST = +41; signal line is +30
12/12/22; 3:26 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 2:26 PM EST = +41; signal line is +30
12/12/22; 1:57 PM EST = +11; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 9:53 AM EST = +25; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 9:44 AM EST = +9; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:29 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 2:38 PM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/9/22; 2:10 PM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/8/22; 3:18 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
12/8/22; 3:11 PM EST = +25; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 12:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +29
12/8/22; 11:21 AM EST = +25; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +27
12/7/22; 2:51 PM EST = +25; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
12/7/22; 2:39 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
12/7/22; 2:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
12/6/22; 2:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/6/22; 2:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 1:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +41; signal line is +23
11/30/22; 3:14 PM EST = +41; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +22
11/28/22; 3:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/28/22; 11:56 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24
11/28/22; 10:56 AM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/22/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/21/22; 12:35 PM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 10:20 AM EST = -4; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:53 AM EST = +10; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +20
11/18/22; 3:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +18
11/18/22; 12:13 PM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +16
11/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +16
11/16/22; 2:25 PM EST = +40; signal line is +14
11/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +13
11/15/22; 2:18 PM EST = +40; signal line is +12
11/15/22; 1:30 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
11/15/22; 11:28 AM EST = +40; signal line is +9
11/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +7
11/14/22; 3:59 PM EST = +12; signal line is +5
11/14/22; 2:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +4
11/14/22; 1:12 PM EST = +40; signal line is +2
11/14/22; 12:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is -1
11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is -2
11/11/22; 1:08 PM EST = +40; signal line is -5
11/11/22; 11:15 AM EST = +26; signal line is -7
11/11/22; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is -8
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is -11
11/11/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -13
11/10/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -15; go long 3876; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -18.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.8%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2022 = +40.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long, which is surprising, since the model is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 23 points below the signal line. It is on a silver platter for bears.

There are a lot of moving parts right now that are too involved to explain in a post but perhaps some guidelines will help all of you follow along. The quant wants to flip short asap. After the opening bell tomorrow, watch the initial move of the S&P 500. If the SPX drifts lower by only 1 point and trends lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Sounds easy for the bears, doesn't it? Well, not so fast.

The bears need a gentle steady move lower not a gap-down at the opening bell. If the SPX collapses at the open by 11 points or more, this behavior will likely delay the flip to the short side by about 90 minutes. If bearish, you do not want a -11 point drop or more in SPX at the opening bell and S&P futures on Sunday evening on the East Coast are down ..... wait for it ..... wait for it .... -10 points. The bears may ruin it for themselves.

Let's call Monday a battle of utes and retail (both creating bearishness) against banks and the NYA index (both creating bullishness). Here is another twist possible for tomorrow morning. If XLF drops below 34.43 (only pennies away), or if NYA drops below 15206, either would do, the quant will likely immediately flip short regardless of other factors. This may also occur if VIX spikes above 24.80.

The bulls need to keep the banks and NYA in their camp and at the same time pull UTIL above 975.20 and/or RTH above 165.50. Either one will stop the stock market selling in its tracks. If both flip bullish, stocks are going to run strongly higher.

Is all that clear as mud? And that is a simplified version of what is happening. The stock market is erratic and unstable ahead of the inflation report on Tuesday morning and King Powell's rate decision and press conference Wednesday afternoon. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

Bears are ready to flip the model short but do not want a gap-down tomorrow morning. Bears will benefit greatly if banks are weak and or if the NYA index is weak. Bulls need to maintain banks and the NYA heading higher while pulling the utes and retail stocks higher.

12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:29 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 2:38 PM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/9/22; 2:10 PM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/8/22; 3:18 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
12/8/22; 3:11 PM EST = +25; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 12:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +29
12/8/22; 11:21 AM EST = +25; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +27
12/7/22; 2:51 PM EST = +25; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
12/7/22; 2:39 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
12/7/22; 2:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
12/6/22; 2:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/6/22; 2:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bulls are hanging on by a fingernail with the algo number only 1 measly point above the signal line. Utilities fail into the bear camp but the model does not flip short yet.

The SPX 4091-4095 level (write this on a post-it note and stick it on your forehead) is extremely important and will open the door to a new cyclical bull market pattern but price is rejected and spanked lower to 3999.

Utes and commodes are the 2 parameters dictating stock market direction right now, in real-time. Both are bearish creating market weakness. Watch utilities closely today. UTIL 975.20 is the key bull/bear line in the sand. UTIL begins the Tuesday session at 970.23 in the bear camp. If UTIL jogs above and below 975 a time or few today, and resolves lower, consider that an indication that the quant wants to flip short and the imminent turn to the short side would be in play.

If UTIL regains 975 and is heading higher, the bulls are back in business. Likewise, if GTX regains 3590, the bulls can celebrate with the upside in stocks extending higher.

It is somewhat of a standoff between bulls and bears right now, a big intraday recovery day Friday, then a collapse yesterday. Watch UTIL 975 today to see if there is any price activity. 

12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The commodities, SPX index and utilities are dictating the stock market direction. Bulls need GTX above 3606 and/or SPX above 4097 to receive more upside bull fuel. GTX is about a +3% gain needed but for the SPX, price begins at 4072 only 25 points away from 4097.

SPX 4097 is far more important than a simple bull/bear line in the sand. It dictates whether the US stock market remains in a cyclical bear or if it now transitions into a cyclical bull with lots of upside ahead. SPX moving above 4097 and 4100, and remaining above, opens the door to big numbers higher.

The bears need to pull UTIL lower below 974.50 and price is only about a point away. UTIL below 974.50 will create stock market sogginess but it is probably not enough to get the model to flip short. Nonetheless, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play if UTIL loses 974.50.

If UTIL loses 974.50, and then after a while moves back above, then back below again (jogging), the robot is likely getting ready to flip short. This type of action would walk the model to the bear side.

It's that simple; utes versus SPX. If UTIL loses 974.50, stocks will sell off but not fall apart, but if UTIL keeps jogging above and below 974.50, and resolves below, the stock market is likely going to drop and Keybot flip short.

If SPX moves above 4097, it is off to the races for the stock market. One of these two parameters will flinch and tell the market direction forward. The market action is noise until then. UTIL 974.50 and SPX 4097 is all that matter.

S&P futures are down -5 points Sunday evening on the US East Coast. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 1:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +41; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after the Jerome Powell show yesterday. The Fed is reducing the pace of rate increases (that choke-off the economy for the sake of reducing inflation) so the bulls are buying stocks. Did you see the utilities?

UTIL moves above 974. This is a big f&*$#n' deal, as Sleepy Joe Biden told Emperor Obama years ago. If UTIL ventures above 1000, that will also be a big deal and lead the way to far higher stock prices. If UTIL fails from here, however, there will be Hell to pay in the US stock market and an epic multi-month crash will likely begin.

Today's battle for stock market directional control is utes versus commodes. Bulls need UTIL to remain above 974 and for GTX to regain 3600 moving higher. This will create another new leg higher for US stocks.

Bears need GTX to remain bearish below 3600 and at the same time pull UTIL back below 974 to create negativity. This will probably not be enough to flip the model short but super close. If UTIL fails, study its behavior. If UTIL loses 974 for a few minutes or hour or so, then regains it and that goes on for a while, but then price loses 974 again (jogging), that tells you the quant is likely getting ready to go short.

SPX begins at 4080. SPX 4155 is a major bull/bear line in the sand perhaps the most important number in the stock market. If the S&P 500 regains 4155, which is 75 points away, the United States stock market will rally bigtime traveling to the moon going forward.

On the other side of the ledger, UTIL 974 will lead to darkness and long-term gloom, despair, agony and  misery.

12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +41; signal line is +23
11/30/22; 3:14 PM EST = +41; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +22
11/28/22; 3:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. It looked like copper would fail and help flip the model short but it took all morning for the red metal to crawl into the bear camp and then that was only for a short while. Then, during the final hour of trading, copper fails again, and the quant wants to flip  short, but the internal parameters will not permit the move yet.

The bears need a steady move lower in stocks and for the SPX to fall through 3956 trending lower and that should be enough to flip Keybot the Quant to the short side but time will tell. S&P futures are up +4 an hour before the regular US trading session begins. Copper futures are up nearly +1% so the bulls want to maintain control of the stock market.

Bears need SPX below 3956 for victory and to flip Keybot short and the NYA dropping below 15217 would flush the stock market even lower.

Bulls need CPER above 21.73 and/or UTIL above 974.29 to maintain the upside in stocks and CPER will likely turn bullish after the opening bell. UTIL 974 would kick in a stronger upside rally in stocks.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning.

12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/28/22; 3:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/28/22; 11:56 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24
11/28/22; 10:56 AM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long by a whisker with the algo number only 1 measly point above the signal line. All that matters is utes and copper. Bulls must push UTIL above 974.35 (now at 972.06), otherwise, they are going to get into trouble.

Bears need CPER below 21.72 (now at 21.81) to create stock market negativity. If copper turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 4021 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

On Sunday evening on the US East Coast, S&P futures are down -16 and copper futures are dropping faster than a prom dress so the bears are broadcasting that they want to take control of the stock market. The bulls must push utilities higher to stop the negativity.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, another on Wednesday evening for the EOM (end-of-month), and the third on Friday morning. It is a battle royale between utilities and copper  on Monday. Who will win?

12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long by a single hair. Here it is. Time to separate the men from the boys. The UTIL bull/bear line in the sand, as previously mentioned, is 974 and an hour ago price prints......... wait for it ......... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer for it....... 974. It is a battle royale with the stock market on the line.

Keybot has not printed any numbers as yet today but UTIL is knocking on the bull's door. The bulls need the stronger utes because the algo number is only above the signal line by 1 measly point. Bulls need stronger utilities to drive the US stock market another leg higher.

If UTIL closes above 974 that is a bigtime bull signal. It will have to keep following through next week but it tells you the bulls are going to run higher.

UTIL tagged 974 and is at 971 now so a close below 974 extends the game until Monday giving the market bears something to smile about because utes came all the way up over the last few weeks and right when it counted, were unable to hold 974. So watch it to see what happens.

If utes head lower from here in a big way clearly rejected by 974, then Katy bar the door. As the previous post said, the US stock market will be in a crash profile for a significant collapse to begin at anytime.

If bullish on stocks you need UTIL above 974. If bearish, you are hoping that utes collapse. Bears need weaker copper and must push CPER below 21.73 but it is drifting higher.

The US market closes at 1:00 PM EST today only 90 minutes away.

If CPER loses 21.73, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX then loses the 4K level, Keybot will likely flip short. It's a coin-flip but UTIL 974 and CPER 21.73 tell you the answer and the direction forward for stocks.

11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/22/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/21/22; 12:35 PM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 10:20 AM EST = -4; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:53 AM EST = +10; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +20
11/18/22; 3:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with the robot teasing to go short but content to stay long into the holiday-shortened trading week ahead. The bulls are in control with the algo number 8 points above the signal line but that is nothing to brag about.

The battle next week is between copper, volatility and NYA in the bull camp versus utes and commodes in the bear camp.

To continue the rally, bulls need UTIL above 974 and/or GTX above 3630 although both will take some effort. If the bulls push stocks higher in front of the joyous Turkey Day, watch SPX 4145-4150 since that would unleash big upside.

If UTIL does not get back above 974, prepare your portfolio for a major crash event that can begin at anytime and will likely be written into the record books. UTIL above 974 would keep the wolf at bay.

Bears need to pull CPER below 21.69, NYA below 15263 and/or push VIX above 25.30. Any 1 of the 3 will signal an end to the bull rally. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, Katy bar the door, since stocks will be collapsing lower. The copper target corresponds to a -1.2% loss in copper futures so watch this closely overnight Sunday into Monday.

If any 1 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back on the table and if the SPX loses 3936 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The NYA below 15263 is a big deal which will lead to significant further stock market weakness. Conversely, if NYA remains above 15263, the bulls are on easy street with stocks floating higher until the NYA changes its mind again.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number next week on Wednesday morning. The US stock market is closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Friday is a shortened session.

11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/18/22; 3:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +18
11/18/22; 12:13 PM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +16
11/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The internals will not yet fully latch to permit the move so the quant remains long.

The fight for stock market direction is currently rooted in the NYA index at the 15260 bull/bear line in the sand. NYA is at 15150 creating sogginess in stocks. Commodities also remain in play with GTX 3631. Price is at 3552 creating stock market selling pressure.

VIX is at 24.13 with the bull/bear line in the sand at 25.33 so the bears must move VIX up a full stick if they want to prove that down is the direction forward (volatility moves inversely to stocks).

Bulls need NYA 15260 to prove that they can flex their muscles higher while bears want VIX above 25.33 which will usher in stock market pain. Choose your poison.

If the SPX drops below 3906, now at 3936, and trends lower from there, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If this is not in the cards today, NYA 15260 and VIX 25.33 will tell you the path forward.

11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +16
11/16/22; 2:25 PM EST = +40; signal line is +14
11/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +13
11/15/22; 2:18 PM EST = +40; signal line is +12
11/15/22; 1:30 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
11/15/22; 11:28 AM EST = +40; signal line is +9
11/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +7
11/14/22; 3:59 PM EST = +12; signal line is +5
11/14/22; 2:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +4
11/14/22; 1:12 PM EST = +40; signal line is +2
11/14/22; 12:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is -1
11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 42 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising and a new development occurs that is a bigtime bull win.

The NYA crosses above 15297 shaking off the bear market and trying to enter a bull market. Watch the bull/bear line in the sand at 15297 like a hawk; it will tell you stock market direction. Above means an extended bull market and several weeks of upside joy. If NYA drops below 15297, there will be Hell to pay going forward.

Same dealio with GTX 3638 with price at 3683 creating bullish joy. Negativity will occur in the stock market when GTX loses 3638. Bulls rule above GTX 3638.

UTIL needs to move above 973 to create bullishness in stocks. This may be a tall order but it requires a hairy eyeball. Overall, the utilities are a terrible omen suggesting a big crash is on tap any week forward directly conflicting with the NYA joy.

SPX needs to move above 4150 which is 157 points away to help the bulls. If this occurs, trumpets would sound the arrival of a strong bull market.

11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is -2
11/11/22; 1:08 PM EST = +40; signal line is -5
11/11/22; 11:15 AM EST = +26; signal line is -7
11/11/22; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is -8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with more juice added to the bull tank today. The algo number is 48 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising. Commodities turn bullish adding upside to the stock market. GTX 3633 is the bull/bear line in the sand with price trading at 3704 right now so watch it closely.

Most importantly, the NYA crosses above the critical bull/bear line in the sand at 15297 now trading at 15340. This is a big deal. Watch NYA 15297 like a hawk because if price remains above, stocks will remain in rally mode. If NYA loses 15297 today or any day forward, that is a sign that the rally is not strong and will likely roll over.

11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/22; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is -8
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is -11
11/11/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -13
11/10/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -15; go long 3876; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -18.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.8%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2022 = +40.0%)