Tuesday, May 21, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bull camp at SPX 2859 after this morning's opening bell. The banks create the market joy. Retail stocks then joined the upside party in the afternoon but rolled over. The bulls are in charge again with the algo number 3 points above the signal line.

Today was a battle between banks, retail stocks and volatility. Since retail earnings are looking sick afterhours, the banks and volatility should rule the roost and control the broad stock market direction on Wednesday.

The bulls need VIX below 14.78 (now at 14.95) to create strong stock market upside. The VIX came down to kiss this level but could not break through on the first try. There will likely be drama at VIX 14.78 tomorrow. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

The bears need XLF below 26.99 (now at 27.19) to turn the stock market south again and position Keybot for a flip back to the short side. The bears will also benefit if they keep retail stocks weak with RTH below 105.50 (now at 105.23 causing market negativity). If RTH moves above 105.50, the bulls will be singing songs of joy.

Thus, the stock market moves higher if VIX drops below 14.78 and/or RTH above 105.50. The market moves lower if XLF drops below 26.99. If volatility and retail stocks remain bearish, and banks remain bullish, status quo, the stock market will keep chopping sideways. If XLF turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play.

On the last trade, the algo program gains almost a half-percent. The actual trading gains over +1% due to the good fortune of being in a short tech ETF. It just happened to be the next one in the que. Sometimes this stuff can go the other way. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +14% this year and the Keybot the Quant algorithm is outperforming up nearly +20%. Keybot exits PSQ and enters IWM. Banks and volatility are what matters for hump day. The erratic, unstable, whipsaw price action continues.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35
5/21/19; 2:40 PM EST = +54; signal line is +37
5/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37; go long 2859; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.5%)
5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37
5/17/19; 3:07 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37
5/17/19; 12:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
5/17/19; 12:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38; go short 2870; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.2%)

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