Saturday, May 18, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side at SPX 2870 on Friday at munch time. Another day, another whipsaw. The market price action is erratic, unstable and nutso. It is reminiscent of the price behavior in front of the 1987 crash but who knows? Keybot only sees 1's and 0's and the robot flips short again after three key components, volatility, banks and retail stocks, jump into the bear camp.

There are retail earnings on tap next week which will greatly impact the broad stock market direction. The key parameter, however, remains the banks. Watch XLF like a hawk since as the banks go, so goes the market.

Keybot went bonkers on Friday printing 10 numbers a very active day for the algorithm. Some days the quant sits and does nothing and other days it spits out numbers like crazy. The quant did not bite on the downside after Friday's opening bell and then stocks recovered. The bull's had their chests puffed out for the weekend, but alas, the bears came in hard and fast mid-day taking control of the stock market. Note the erratic price action with the algo wanting to then flip back to the long side but ending the week in the bear camp. Flip a coin with this schizophrenic market. If XLF takes out 27.01 (now at 26.88) to the upside, consider the imminent turn to the long (bullish) side to be in play for Keybot.

On the last trade, the algo program and actual trading is flat. The benchmark SPX is up +15% on the year and the actual trading, generated by Keybot, outperforms up +18% in 2019. Keybot exits SH and enters PSQ remaining in the single, non-leveraged, ETF's.

5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/19; 3:07 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37
5/17/19; 12:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
5/17/19; 12:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38; go short 2870; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.2%)
5/17/19; 11:55 AM EST = +38 signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/17/19; 11:35 AM EST = +54 signal line is +40
5/17/19; 11:06 AM EST = +68 signal line is +41
5/17/19; 10:56 AM EST = +54 signal line is +40
5/17/19; 10:54 AM EST = +38 signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/17/19; 10:00 AM EST = +22 signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = +22 signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/16/19; 2:11 PM EST = +38 signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
5/16/19; 10:05 AM EST = +54; signal line is +40; go long 2878; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.5%)

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