STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at Thursday's opening bell at SPX 2829. Stocks were in free fall yesterday. Volatility spiked in the early hours painting a bleak picture for the day. The parameters mentioned in the previous post, banks, commodities and the NYA index, all fail, ushering in the broad stock market negativity.

Boiling it down to something simple to watch to gauge market direction, Friday will be a battle between the banks and NYA index. The bears need NYA below 12484 (now at 12525) which will create market carnage. The bulls need XLF above 26.96 (now at 26.65) to stop the downside slide in equities.

The bulls need the VIX below 14.80 (now trading at 15.95) which will stop the stock market selling and begin a big rally. GTX above 2542 (now at 2477) will also create stock market upside. If XLF, VIX or GTX join the bull camp, any one would do, consider the caution flag to be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn back to the long side to be on tap. If NYA fails, it is over for the stock market. If XLF, VIX and GTX remain bearish, and NYA remain bullish, the stock market will chop sideways with an upward bias. S&P futures are up 19 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell. 

In the last trade, that was only a couple days in these whipsaw, choppy markets, the quant program loses -1.1% and the actual trading loses -1.4%. Despite the negativity, the benchmark S&P 500 remains +13% higher on the year. The Keybot the Quant algo actual trading outperforms up +18% on the year thus far. Keybot exits IWM and enters RWM remaining in the 1x non-leveraged ETF's (the quant will remain in 1x ETF mode at least until mid-June due to the whippy, erratic and unstable markets).

Today is the last day of trading in US markets until Tuesday due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =

5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32

5/23/19; 2:34 PM EST = -6; signal line is +33

5/23/19; 2:26 PM EST = +8; signal line is +34

5/23/19; 2:13 PM EST = -6; signal line is +35

5/23/19; 1:28 PM EST = +8; signal line is +37

5/23/19; 1:19 PM EST = -6; signal line is +38

5/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +40

5/23/19; 9:30 AM EST = +38; signal line is +41; go short 2829; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +12.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.1%)

5/23/19; 3:06 AM EST = +38; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long

5/22/19; 2:29 PM EST = +52; signal line is +40

5/22/19; 12:30 PM EST = +38; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long

5/22/19; 12:01 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38

5/22/19; 10:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +36

5/22/19; 10:26 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35

5/22/19; 6:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34

5/22/19; 5:31 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35

5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35

5/21/19; 2:40 PM EST = +54; signal line is +37

5/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37; go long 2859; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.5%)