STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday morning at SPX 4777. The robot was champing at the bit all week long to go short and finally commits on Friday as another successful year draws to a close.

The last trade ran for a week with marginal gains in the S&P 500 benchmark, the quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant. The SPX is up a huge +24% this year with the actual trading generated by the quant in step with a +23% gain in 2023.

Keybot the Quant will be rezeroed tomorrow morning for the new year ahead and to provide the final results of 2023. Keybot exited SPY and entered SH remaining in the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer remains active. Imagine.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2023 =
12/29/23; 10:46 AM EST = +18; signal line is +23; go short 4777; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +24.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +12.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +22.3%)
12/26/23; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
12/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +23
12/22/23; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
12/22/23; 9:45 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22; go long 4769; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +24.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +12.5%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2023 = +22.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 4769. The choppy whipsaw slop that is the hallmark of 2023 continues into year end. The quant program loses about a percent on the 7-hour trade and the actual trading loses -2.5%. For the year with only 4 trading days remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up a huge +24%. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up +13% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +22% this year. The whipsaw timer is triggered so the robot drops into single 1x ETF's for the next 30 days to lessen risk in the choppy slop. Keybot exited SDS and entered SPY.

UTIL 871.75 is a meaningless number now replaced with 892.13. UTIL is at 873 so utes would fail out of the gate on Tuesday creating negativity. The SPX likely needs to drop through 4737 on Tuesday for the quant to whipsaw back to the short side. If UTIL remains below 892 and copper weakens, stocks will begin falling apart.

Bulls need higher utilities and commodities to continue the rally. It's not Christmas without Jingle Bell Rock.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2023 =
12/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
12/22/23; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
12/22/23; 9:45 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22; go long 4769; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +24.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +12.5%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2023 = +22.1%)
12/22/23; 9:37 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
12/21/23; 11:12 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20
12/21/23; 9:48 AM EST = +34; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
12/20/23; 3:57 PM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 4705; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +22.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +13.9%)(Actual results this trade = +24.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +24.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at the end of the session at SPX 4705. The last trade ran for about 7 weeks with the algo program gaining about +12% and the actual trading gaining a humongous +24%. On the year, with only 6 trading days remaining, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up a big +23%. Wowza. The Keybot the Quant program is up +14% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +25% beating the benchmark. Comically, it looked like the robot may log its first negative year ever only 2 months ago. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

If UTIL remains below 871, stocks will continue lower. If copper drops, stocks will be toast. Bulls need UTIL above 871 and they will be able to right the ship. Utes will tell you who wins.

It's Christmastime and the band is back together for holiday fun. Now back to Darlene's song; that girl is a gift from heaven.

12/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
12/22/23; 10:00 AM EST =
12/20/23; 3:57 PM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 4705; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +22.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +13.9%)(Actual results this trade = +24.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +24.6%)
12/20/23; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +19
12/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +17
12/17/23; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +16
12/13/23; 12:59 PM EST = +32; signal line is +14
12/13/23; 3:41 PM EST = +48; signal line is +13
12/13/23; 10:51 AM EST = +32; signal line is +11
12/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10
12/12/23; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10
12/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +9
12/11/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
12/10/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +7
12/8/23; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +7
12/8/23; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +7
12/7/23; 11:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is +6
12/7/23; 11:11 AM EST = +0; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
12/7/23; 10:45 AM EST = +16; signal line is +6
12/7/23; 10:18 AM EST = +0; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
12/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +5
12/6/23; 11:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
12/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +3
11/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +16; signal line is -2
11/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +0
11/26/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
11/22/23; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is -4
11/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is -7
11/17/23; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is -10
11/14/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -14
11/13/23; 10:45 AM EST = +2; signal line is -17
11/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is -21
11/10/23; 10:00 AM EST = -14; signal line is -23
11/9/23; 11:51 AM EST = -14; signal line is -24
11/9/23; 9:45 AM EST = +2; signal line is -26
11/8/23; 10:54 AM EST = -14; signal line is -28
11/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = +2; signal line is -29
11/6/23; 2:42 PM EST = +16; signal line is -33
11/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = +0; signal line is -37
11/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -39
11/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is -43
11/3/23; 3:30 PM EST = +2; signal line is -45
11/3/23; 2:33 PM EST = +16; signal line is -48
11/3/23; 1:12 PM EST = +2; signal line is -51
11/3/23; 9:45 AM EST = +16; signal line is -54
11/3/23; 9:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is -57
11/2/23; 3:13 PM EST = +0; signal line is -60
11/2/23; 11:32 AM EST = -14; signal line is -62
11/2/23; 11:11 AM EST = -28; signal line is -64
11/2/23; 10:42 AM EST = -14; signal line is -66
11/2/23; 10:39 AM EST = -28; signal line is -68
11/2/23; 10:37 AM EST = -44; signal line is -69
11/2/23; 9:56 AM EST = -30; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:46 PM EST = -44; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:24 PM EST = -60; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:01 PM EST = -76; signal line is -70 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:46 PM EST = -90; signal line is -69 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:36 PM EST = -76; signal line is -68 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 1:38 PM EST = -90; signal line is -67 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:26 PM EST = -76; signal line is -66 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:17 PM EST = -60; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 10:27 AM EST = -46; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 9:48 AM EST = -60; signal line is -65; go long 4209; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 4209.

On the last trade, that ran for 6 weeks, the quant gains almost +6%. Ditto the actual trading generated by the robot. For the year thus far, with only 2 months remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +10% giving back a lot over the last 3 months. The quant program is up a couple percent this year so far and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is a smidgeon positive on the year. Perhaps Keybot may not finish in the red this year after all? (The robot has never had a negative year since it went on line in 2008.) Keybot exits SH and enters SSO back into the 2x ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired. 

11/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
11/3/23; 9:00 AM EST =
11/1/23; 3:46 PM EST = -44; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:24 PM EST = -60; signal line is -70
11/1/23; 3:01 PM EST = -76; signal line is -70 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:46 PM EST = -90; signal line is -69 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 2:36 PM EST = -76; signal line is -68 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 1:38 PM EST = -90; signal line is -67 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:26 PM EST = -76; signal line is -66 but algorithm remains long
11/1/23; 12:17 PM EST = -60; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 10:27 AM EST = -46; signal line is -65
11/1/23; 9:48 AM EST = -60; signal line is -65; go long 4209; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.4%)
11/1/23; 9:36 AM EST = -60; signal line is -65 but algorithm remains short
10/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -90; signal line is -65
10/31/23; 1:16 PM EST = -90; signal line is -64
10/31/23; 10:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -62
10/31/23; 9:36 AM EST = -76; signal line is -61
10/30/23; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -60 but algorithm remains short
10/30/23; 1:36 PM EST = -76; signal line is -60
10/30/23; 1:27 PM EST = -90; signal line is -59
10/30/23; 12:48 PM EST = -76; signal line is -58
10/30/23; 11:54 AM EST = -60; signal line is -56
10/30/23; 10:30 AM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/30/23; 9:36 AM EST = -60; signal line is -57
10/29/23; 7:00 PM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/25/23; 12:07 PM EST = -76; signal line is -57
10/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = -62; signal line is -56
10/18/23; 9:36 AM EST = -62; signal line is -56
10/18/23; 9:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 3:31 PM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 2:56 PM EST = -62; signal line is -57
10/17/23; 2:46 PM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 1:58 PM EST = -62; signal line is -57
10/17/23; 11:20 AM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = -62; signal line is -57
10/16/23; 3:10 PM EST = -46; signal line is -56 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 2:43 PM EST = -62; signal line is -56
10/16/23; 1:46 PM EST = -46; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 1:25 PM EST = -62; signal line is -54
10/16/23; 12:28 PM EST = -46; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 12:04 PM EST = -62; signal line is -52
10/16/23; 11:15 AM EST = -46; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 11:05 AM EST = -30; signal line is -47 but algorithm remains short
10/16/23; 10:15 AM EST = -46; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains short
10/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = -62; signal line is -44
10/13/23; 10:57 AM EST = -62; signal line is -42
10/13/23; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -39
10/10/23; 10:17 AM EST = -46; signal line is -36
10/9/23; 9:36 AM EST = -62; signal line is -34
10/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = -76; signal line is -31
10/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -27
10/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -76; signal line is -24
10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -49; signal line is -8
9/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -5
9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = -49; signal line is -2
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1
9/22/23; 3:14 PM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/22/23; 1:29 PM EST = -49; signal line is +6
9/22/23; 10:05 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
9/22/23; 9:58 AM EST = -49; signal line is +12
9/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +15
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18
9/21/23; 10:49 AM EST = -35; signal line is +20
9/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = -19; signal line is +22
9/21/23; 9:42 AM EST = -35; signal line is +24
9/20/23; 3:59 PM EST = -19; signal line is +27
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
9/18/23; 12:20 PM EST = -5; signal line is +29
9/18/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 11:04 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:57 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29; go short 4466; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -5.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo remains quiet the last 2 weeks. Commodities fail creating the leg lower in stocks. Friday is a big recovery rally for equities but it did not move the needle on the quant. The bears are cruising with the algo number 49 points below the signal line.

Bears need SPX below 4210 to create Armageddon but price recovers on Friday to 4309. The S&P 500 fell to 4216 last week teasing carnage, but the bulls pumped tech and semiconductor stocks to save the day.

Bulls need either SOX above 3504 and/or GTX above 3560 to stop the stock market selling and stabilize conditions. The chips/tech stocks will likely tell you a lot about the market in the days ahead. Bulls got nothing unless they can push SOX back above 3504 (this tells you that the relief rally has legs).

The US stock market remains in a crash profile going forward. Bears need SPX below 4210 which will create market carnage and a likely crash.

Bulls need SOX 3504 and/or GTX 3560 to prove that they can stage a comeback rally, a New York Comeback as Lucinda and the Boss sing.

10/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -76; signal line is -27
10/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -76; signal line is -24
10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -49; signal line is -8

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish after a sleepy last week. There may be lots of drama going on but the underlying stock market parameters held completely steady in the bear camp with the algo number 41 points below the signal line. The quant did not print any numbers last week except for the pre-scheduled number on Friday morning.

For the level of negativity in the market as per the quant, it is surprising that stocks have not dropped further. Bulls are clinging on to commodities as their lifeline; it is a sector that has not broken down yet.

The bears will create blood and carnage on Wall Street if the SPX drops below 4177. The S&P 500 begins at 4288 only about a hundo points away. The US stock market will likely crash if the 4177 fails. This is not a joke.

If the bulls want to stop the bears, they need stronger chips and NYA index. Bulls need SOX above 3515 and/or NYA above 15629 to stop the stock market selling. Either one would do. The stock market would then need further positives to stage a legitimate rally, but it would at least stop the bleeding. If both parameters turn bullish a strong relief rally will be underway.

Bulls can stabilize the stock market and start a relief rally with SOX 3515, NYA 15629, and a VIX below 15.

Bears will likely send the US stock market into a crash if SPX 4177 fails. October is the month for crashes. The stock market is exhibiting a crash profile for the last few weeks due to the failure and weakness in the utilities. There may be lots of fun on tap to end the year. The Girls Just Want to Have Fun.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Q3 is in the bag and the first day of trading for Q4 begins tomorrow.

10/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/23; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -49; signal line is -8
9/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -5
9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = -49; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 47 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising with their feet up on the dashboard. The quant is quiet this week idling along without printing any numbers thus far. It is always interesting how the robot may print 15 numbers in one day and then several days may go by without the quant printing any numbers.

Bears need weaker commodities to push stocks lower but oil and others remain buoyant. Bears need stronger banks and NYA while pushing volatility lower. These three parameters have only become more bearish this week. Utilities have crashed which remains a very ominous harbinger of things to come.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number for this week tomorrow morning. The month and third quarter trading ends tomorrow (EOM and EOQ3, respectively).

10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/23; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = -49; signal line is -2
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the bears are cruising with the algo number 50 points below the signal line. The robot spits out 6 numbers on Friday. The drama is around the NYA 15622 bull/bear line in the sand as expected.

NYA finishes at 15570 below the critical 15622 so the bears are walking around this weekend with chins held high and chests puffed.

Make no mistake. The collapse in chips leads the broad markets lower. The problems in the housing and manufacturing sectors are old school indicators that did not bring the broad market lower. Once semiconductors failed, however, stocks fell apart. Perhaps the luster is coming off the AI rose. Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

The bulls can only stop the stock market selling if they push NYA back above 15622. In addition, the bulls likely need stronger banks and lower volatility to stop the overall negativity.

Bears will send the stock market another leg lower if they can weaken commodities. Remember, the weak utilities over the last couple months signaled trouble ahead and utes remain a bad omen for stocks going forward (crash profile).

Watch NYA 15622, XLF 34.18 and VIX 14.85. All 3 parameters are bearish. Bulls need at least one of the 3 to turn bullish to stop the stock market selling. If all 3 remain in the bear camp, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1
9/22/23; 3:14 PM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/22/23; 1:29 PM EST = -49; signal line is +6
9/22/23; 10:05 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
9/22/23; 9:58 AM EST = -49; signal line is +12
9/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +15
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears slaughtered the bulls yesterday the SPX puking 72 points. The bed-sh*tting sends the algo number 67 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising.

Two key market metrics failed yesterday and will tell you if the downside has legs. XLF drops below the 34.21 bull/bear line in the sand ending the day at 33.92. Bulls desperately need the banks to recover back above XLF 34.21.

The NYA fails below the 15622 bull/bear line in the sand down to 15602. This failure is especially ominous because it represents a cyclical bear market ahead. Write NYA 15622 on a sticky note and paste it to your forehead for the days ahead. There will likely be a battle here during the days ahead and the resolution will dictate how stocks end the year.

If NYA remains below 15622 going forward, the US stock market will crumble lower into year end. If the NYA recovers above 15622, the stock market will stabilize and the selling will stop. Also, the bloodbath scenario ahead for stocks can be taken off the table.

NYA 15622 and XLF 34.21 will tell you the stock market story today. XLF is trading at 34.00 in the pre-market. For the bears to gain further traction to the downside, they need weaker commodities.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18
9/21/23; 10:49 AM EST = -35; signal line is +20
9/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = -19; signal line is +22
9/21/23; 9:42 AM EST = -35; signal line is +24
9/20/23; 3:59 PM EST = -19; signal line is +27
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the markets idle into Fed day today. Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High this afternoon to tell global traders how to trade. The algo number is 33 points below the signal line so the bears are walking around with their chests puffed out.

Bulls need higher copper, chips and retail stocks to regain stock market control. Bulls need CPER above 23.40, RTH above 175.30 and/or SOX above 3558. Any 1 of the 3 will stop the stock market selling and place bulls on steady ground. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, stocks will be rallying higher and likely position the quant to go long. If all 3 turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting to the moon.

Copper futures are up +0.6% and CPER only needs to gain +0.3% to flip bullish so it looks like copper will jump into the bull camp after the opening bell. This activity likely places the stock market on hold until Chairman Powell walks onto the stage with his jelly-stained necktie in a few hours.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker banks. Bears need VIX above 14.80 and XLF below 34.28 to create stock market carnage. Of course, Powell's presser will move the banks. Yesterday, the VIX teased 14.80 but then pulled back down waiting on the Fed. VIX is now trading at 13.91 in real-time so the bears have to jam it a stick higher if they want to growl.

Volatility is the key. Bulls win today if they keep Uncle Vix below 14.80. If VIX pops above 14.80, there will be blood on Wall Street. Powell is getting ready for the big day at home asking his wife if she can help him find two socks that match.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
9/18/23; 12:20 PM EST = -5; signal line is +29
9/18/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 4466. Of course it does in these multi-month chop suey markets chewing up bulls and bears alike. The model round-trips from SPX 4464 to 4499 then back to 4466 verifying the never-ending choppy slop.

UTIL pops above 9 hundo for the bulls but utes then fall on their sword. The chips were taken out back behind the garage and beaten with a baseball bat. The SOX collapses into the bear camp at 3476 below the 3575 line in the sand. Copper faltered but CPER ends the day at 23.44 in the bull camp above the 23.39 line in the sand (by pennies).

VIX is at 13.79 remaining below the 14.97 line in the sand so the bears got nothing unless VIX pops above 15; this will tell you that the rout is on and the downside in stocks has legs. If the VIX remains below 15, stocks will recover and not drop to any great significance.

UTIL is at 892 and needs 915 next week to provide bull fuel for the stock market. Retail stocks and banks remain in the bull camp so any weakness in these sectors, especially Scamazon, will portend weakness ahead for the stock market.

The bears have the stock market football stumbling down field like a drunk with the algo number only 2 measly points below the signal line. The stock market remains a coin toss. 

On the last trade, that results in a whipsaw, the algo program and actual trading each lose about one percent; the nickel and diming continues. For the year, the S&P 500, that is the United States stock market, is up +16%. The quant program is down about -4% and the actual trading is down about -6% on the year thus far. Some additional oil is injected into Keybot's joints to help the robot out. After 14 great successful years, Keybot is looking like the Tin Man. There is still lots of time remaining in the year and there is likely an interesting finish ahead. Keybot exits IWM and enters SH and will remain in the 1x ETF's until the middle of October due to the price volatility (wild swings in price).

For the week ahead, the Fed is on tap so stocks may idle until Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell international stock, bond and currency traders how to trade.

Chips, retail stocks (AMZN), banks and copper are controlling stock market direction currently. Nothing Else Matters.

Bears will prove they can take the stock market lower if retail stocks, banks and copper weaken. Bulls prove they are going to be in control going forward if chips and utilities rally. For now, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line due to these coin-flip markets.

9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 11:04 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:57 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29; go short 4466; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -5.5%)
9/15/23; 10:22 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 10:09 AM EST = +43; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 9:55 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 9:46 AM EST = +43; signal line is +28
9/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:38 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:20 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:21 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:14 PM EST = +27; signal line is +25
9/14/23; 11:57 AM EST = +43; signal line is +24
9/14/23; 11:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +22
9/14/23; 11:10 AM EST = +43; signal line is +21; go long 4499; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -4.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4499. What a wild ride it has been this week. The quant is spitting out numbers like crazy. Chips and copper are running the stock market show and now utilities want to reenter the game. The drama is guaranteed to continue and do not be surprised if the algo whipsaws back to the short side.

UTIL 900.04, SOX 3578.40 and CPER 23.40 are controlling stock market direction currently. Utilities have remained in the bear camp for many weeks an ominous harbinger of big trouble but the stock market holds up with government stimulus and central banker money sloshing around everywhere. UTIL begins today at the 898 palindrome only 2 points from the 900.04 line in the sand. If UTIL moves above 900, it will create further upside in the stock market.

The UTIL 900.04 is obsolete after today and for all of next week the bull/bear line in the sand is 915.24. Thus, if the bulls can create more upside juice today above 9 hundo, that bullishness will disappear come Monday because UTIL will then need to be above 915. If utes rally big today and UTIL moves above 915, it tells you that the stock market rally has some legs. Obviously, bears want UTIL to fall from the current 898 price and trend lower which will continue forecasting serious trouble ahead for US stocks.

Bears need SOX below 3578.40 and price is at 3584 only a sneeze away. In the pre-market, semi's are dropping a couple percent across the board due to Taiwan Semi cutting back on equipment deliveries and orders (business is not as robust as thought). Thus, SOX will likely fail back into the bear camp at the opening bell creating market negativity.

Bears need CPER below 23.40 with price starting at 23.53. This is a 0.6% difference and copper futures are currently down -0.3% so the bears have more work to do to beat down the red metal and create stock market negativity.

If SOX and CPER fail into the bear camp, or if SOX jogs above and below the line in the sand a couple times today on its own, and the SPX drops below 4479, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

It is a crazy market. Crazy as only Patsy could sing. Flip a coin. The chips, copper and utes will tell you the story today.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and the actual trading each lose -0.8% getting nickel and dimed to death over the last few weeks. Algorithms loathe chop suey markets and this erratic price action has been ongoing for nearly a year. It is reminiscent of the choppy whipsaw slop during 2017.

For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up an impressive +17%. The algo program is down -3% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -4%. Keybot the Quant has never had a down year since it came on line in 2008. Do you think the robot has finally met its match this year? There are 3-1/2 months remaining in 2023. Keybot exits DOG and enters IWM remaining in 1x ETF's. This timer will expire in about a week and Keybot will then go back into 2x leveraged ETF's as long as another whipsaw does not occur.

9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/23; 10:00 AM EST =
9/14/23; 2:38 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:20 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:21 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:14 PM EST = +27; signal line is +25
9/14/23; 11:57 AM EST = +43; signal line is +24
9/14/23; 11:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +22
9/14/23; 11:10 AM EST = +43; signal line is +21; go long 4499; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -4.4%)
9/14/23; 10:46 AM EST = +43; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
9/14/23; 9:49 AM EST = +27; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
9/14/23; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 2:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is +15
9/13/23; 1:34 PM EST = +27; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 11:06 AM EST = +43; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 10:31 AM EST = +27; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 9:56 AM EST = +11; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 1:53 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 1:29 PM EST = +27; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 12:43 PM EST = +11; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 12:10 PM EST = +27; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 10:33 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 9:48 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 3:24 PM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 2:41 PM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 10:01 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:52 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 10:27 AM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 9:43 AM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 2:33 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
9/7/23; 12:36 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 12:07 PM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:55 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:37 AM EST = -5; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 11:04 AM EST = -19; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:58 AM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:49 AM EST = -21; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 10:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 8:37 AM EST = -3; signal line is +5
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = -5; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 1:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 10:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is +2; go short 4464; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but wants to flip back to the long side. The algo number is 6 points above the signal line but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to allow the move to the long side. It is more chop suey with stocks up, down, down, up, and back again.

Come Monday, if the SPX can gradually move higher above 4474 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. It is a coin-flip these days.

Yesterday, the bulls needed a gradual move high in the SPX to push the robot into going long but instead price shot up over 11 points higher out of the gate. That activity triggers a gap-up timer and does not allow the move to occur for about 90 minutes (the exact minutes will not be disclosed). Stocks print a high at about 10 AM EST and were downhill ever since staggering into the weekend.

The chips put a kibosh on the upside party failing into the bear camp shortly after Friday's opening bell but after that the bulls pumped banks higher to try and salvage the day and stop the semiconductor negativity.

On Monday morning, as banks go, so goes the stock market. Bears need XLF 34.25 with price at 34.30. Watch it in the pre-market. If stocks sell off on Monday but the XLF does not drop below 34.25, the bears got buptkis and stocks will recover.

Bulls will run higher if semiconductors run higher. Bulls need SOX above 3580 to prove they got upside game. If stocks rally but the SOX cannot achieve 3580, the rally will fade, roll over and die.

There are lots of other moving parts but XLF 34.25 and SOX 3580 is enough for you to know what is controlling stock market direction for Monday.

Copper soiled the sheets dumping -4% last week. If the economy is so rosy, including the glorified golf carts boondoggle (EV's), why is everyone shouting, "we don't need no steenkin' copper" and shunning Dr Copper like he is a lepper?

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/8/23; 10:27 AM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 9:43 AM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the robot spits out a dozen numbers yesterday a very active day start to finish. Stocks are crazy, going loco, with parameters flip-flopping unwilling to commit in either direction. Loco-motion by Little Eva.

The bulls punch back at yesterday's negativity and the algo wants to flip long with the algo number 5 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 4457 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Thus, 7 points of SPX upside is needed for the bulls to smile but S&P futures are down -6.

Bears need weaker chips and retail stocks if they want to create more selling in the stock market. Bears need SOX below 3581.51, price sits on top of this line in the sand, and/or RTH below 175.12 and price sits at this line in the sand as well. Higher volatility will also help bears. VIX is at 14.58 but bears cannot growl until VIX is above 15.10.

Bulls will be running stocks higher if they pump XLF above 34.25 and price begins at 34.23. Flip a coin with this drama going on. It is all game of pennies and dollars right now. Chips are marginally soggy in the pre-market. AMZN is negative pre-market and it drives the RTH. XLF slips to 34.17 in the pre-market so it makes sense that the S&P futures are marginally negative.

Chips, retail stocks, volatility and banks are controlling stock market direction today. 

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 2:33 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
9/7/23; 12:36 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 12:07 PM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:55 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:37 AM EST = -5; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 11:04 AM EST = -19; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:58 AM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:49 AM EST = -21; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 10:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 8:37 AM EST = -3; signal line is +5
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4464 but is already wanting to whipsaw back to the long side with the algo number 8 points above the signal line. The internal parameters are not fully latched so the robot did not flip long late day yesterday and it looks like today will be off to a soggy start. Watch banks and volatility.

The weakness in stocks started with a battle between copper and retail stocks and both failed into the bear camp. Then the banks collapsed followed by a spike in volatility. Late day, however, volatility and banks flip back into the bull camp so obviously these two parameters are controlling stock market direction currently.

Bears need VIX above 15.10 to create blood and carnage on Wall Street. Let's see, in real-time about an hour before the US open, the VIX is at 15.05. Bears only need another nickel to lock in negativity going forward.

Bears also need XLF below 34.24. XLF closed at 34.32 in the bull camp so it is a game of pennies. Let's see, in the pre-market, XLF is trading at...... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer for it ......... 34.22. Thus, all things same, the bears will receive more juice due to weak financials and the S&P futures are down -23 points. There's VIX at 15.09 now. Watch it closely.

VIX 15.10 and XLF 34.24 will tell you if the downside in the US stock market has legs.

On the last trade that ran for about a week, the losses from the previous trade are reversed. It is all choppy slop this year stocks running all over the creation but not going anywhere. Sounds like a Social D song. The benchmark SPX is up +16% on the year with the quant program down a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the robot down about -4% so far this year. Keybot exits IWM and enters DOG.

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = -5; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 1:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 10:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is +2; go short 4464; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)
9/6/23; 10:07 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 9:57 AM EST = +11; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 9:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +0
9/5/23; 3:57 PM EST = +27; signal line is -1
9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +43; signal line is -2
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is -4
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +43; signal line is -6
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9
8/29/23; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is -11
8/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -13
8/29/23; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -14
8/29/23; 9:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16; go long 4446; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish with the algo number a big 45 points above the signal line.

Bulls need higher utilities to prove that the upside rally has legs. Bulls need UTIL above 894. UTIL begins at 866.66.

Bears need  weaker copper, banks, chips and retail stocks while pushing volatility higher. Bears need CPER below 23.47 now at 23.71. That is a 1% difference and copper futures are currently down -0.9% so the bears are trying to halt the stock market rally with the red metal.

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +43; signal line is -2
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is -4
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +43; signal line is -6
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the upside party continues. Semiconductors rally so the bulls are walking around with their chests puffed-out. The quant is tracking retail stocks, mainly AMZN, banks and copper as the key parameters impacting stock market direction. Chips also remain important.

Bulls are cruising with the algo number 52 points above the signal line. The quant is quiet after the Tuesday orgy. August ends today (EOM) and September trading begins tomorrow with the US Monthly Jobs Report on tap.

Bears need either RTH below 174.93, XLF below 34.18 and/or CPER below 23.47. CPER is only 18 cents from the bull/bear line in the sand that is 0.8%. Copper futures are down -0.9%. Whoopsies, daisies. The bears are attacking the red metal this morning to stop the stock market rally.

1 of the 3 parameters turning bearish will halt the rally in stocks but 2 or all 3 are needed to kick-in a stronger move to the downside. Stocks may idle today waiting on the jobs report tomorrow morning.

9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side a couple hours ago at SPX 4446 as the choppy whipsaw slop continues. Today it is bull orgy time with traders tripping over each other to buy at the ask. Sectors jump into the bull camp catapulting stocks to the moon. The algo number is a whopping 52 points above the signal line the bulls came to play today.

Investors and traders believe that the Fed is done hiking so yields plummet as both stocks and notes/bonds are bot.

Copper and chips will likely signal a halt to the rally if it is in the cards. Bears need CPER below 23.46, that is only pennies away, and/or SOX below 3559. Either one turning bearish will stop the rally and both would reverse stocks back into sell-off mode continuing the choppy whipsaw slop.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program and actual trading rack-up more marginal losses due to the choppy slop and non-trending markets. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up +16%, the quant program is down -3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -4%. Keybot the Quant exits RWM and enters IWM.

Watch copper and chips. CPER is trading at 23.56 here on the East Coast at munchtime only a dime away from the bear's goal. SOX is trading at 3621 so bears need a drop of about 62 points in the semiconductor index if they want to growl, like Roy.

9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9
8/29/23; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is -11
8/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -13
8/29/23; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -14
8/29/23; 9:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16; go long 4446; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.9%)
8/28/23; 3:52 PM EST = -4; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 3:04 PM EST = -20; signal line is -18
8/28/23; 2:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -18
8/28/23; 1:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 12:58 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 12:57 PM EST = -18; signal line is -19 but algorithm remains short
8/28/23; 11:18 AM EST = -34; signal line is -19
8/28/23; 9:42 AM EST = -18; signal line is -19 but algorithm remains short
8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -18
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -17
8/24/23; 10:31 AM EST = -34; signal line is -16; go long 4428; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 4428. In these crazy sawtooth choppy sloppy markets, you can go to the can and by the time you return, stocks are going in the opposite direction. It is whipsaw city today down the road from Suffragette City.

The bears are back in control although, comically, who knows what is in store tomorrow when Pope Powell speaks at 10 AM EST (8 AM Jackson Hole mountain time)? Bears need weaker commodities and NYA index to create market carnage.

Bears need GTX below 3415 and/or NYA below 15574. Either one turning bearish will create market carnage and both turning negative will create a bloodbath on Wall and Broad.

The bulls are drowning their troubles drinking flat Fed wine, placing head in palms, opining that they "started out so happy, but now hung over and down." Bulls need stronger chips, banks, retail stocks and copper, and lower volatility. Other than that, things are going swimmingly for the bulls. That's a lot of moving parts.

Bulls need SOX above 3570, XLF above 34.17, RTH above 175.05, CPER above 23.51 and/or VIX below 15.43 to stop the stock market selling. Any one of these 5 metrics turning bullish will stop the selling and send stocks sideways. If they all remain in the bear camp, Katy bar the door, because stocks will be under serious negative assault.

If 2 of the 5 flip bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play and potential flip back to the long side. It is crazy markets that will have to choose a direction.

Remember the weekend comments? No? You must have a lousy memory. The UTIL 914.83, call it 915, line in the sand is in play next week so the closing price tomorrow will provide a heads-up for next week. UTIL is at 875 a big 40 points from the key level for next week so the bears are throwing confetti and celebrating while the bulls continue crying in their beer pleading with Powell to cheer lead stocks tomorrow. Weak utes are a very bad omen going forward placing a potential all-out stock market crash on the table currently.

On the last trade, that ran for only 4-1/2 trading hours, the quant program is flat and the actual trading loses -0.6%. It is death by a thousand cuts due to the many months of choppy slop (non-trending markets). For the year, the S&P 500 benchmark is up +15%, the algo program is down -2% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down almost -4% in 2023. Keybot exits QQQ and enters RWM remaining in single 1x ETF's due to the whipsaws occurring. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Powell.

8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/23; 10:31 AM EST = -34; signal line is -16; go short 4428; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)
8/24/23; 10:15 AM EST = -18; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains long
8/24/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -15
8/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains long
8/23/23; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -15
8/23/23; 3:33 PM EST = -2; signal line is -16
8/23/23; 1:15 PM EST = +14; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 12:43 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17; go long 4431; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4431 as this year's choppy slop continues. Markets are up, down, down, up. Baby What You Want Me To Do? The bulls are back in charge with the algo number 29 points above the signal line. Chips, copper and retail stocks pump the broad stock market higher. NVDA earnings hype creates another spurt higher for the AI orgy.

Bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility to prove that they got game. VIX 15.37 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is trading in real-time at 15.59 in the bear camp. Despite the overnight euphoria in markets, the VIX is not yet in the bull camp. Watch VIX 15.37 closely because if the bulls cannot push below, they got nothing and the rally in stocks will not have legs instead rolling back over to the downside in a few days. If VIX loses the 15.37 level, the upside rally in stocks will develop into an upside orgy.

Bulls will also create another leg higher in stocks if XLF exceeds 34.17 which is only pennies away. Thus, VIX 15.37 and XLF 34.17 tells you if the bulls can take stocks higher, or not.

Bears need weaker retail stocks, copper and chips. The RTH keeps tagging the 175.34 line in the sand identified by the robot with price at ...... wait for it ....... 175.35 one penny in the bull camp. Obviously, how retail stocks go, so goes the market.

Bears also need CPER below 23.51 (and copper futures are negative so this will likely fail into the bear camp) and SOX below 3575. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play, and if the SPX falls below 4396, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

Volatility, banks, retail stocks, copper and chips are the sectors controlling stock market direction currently.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program has a marginal gain and the actual trading generated by the quant loses a smidge because it was in a tech ETF. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark is up about +15%, the quant program is down -2% and the actual trading is down -3%. Despite the down year so far, the robot continues holding its own against the non-stop whipsaw choppy sloppy action since the end of last year. Keybot exits PSQ and enters QQQ.

VIX below 15.37 would confirm that the upside in stocks is real for a few days forward. RTH below 175.34, along with weaker copper, will hint that the euphoria in stocks may be short-lived. Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart as Joey sang.

8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/23; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -15
8/23/23; 3:33 PM EST = -2; signal line is -16
8/23/23; 1:15 PM EST = +14; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 12:43 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17; go long 4431; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.0%)
8/23/23; 12:13 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
8/23/23; 11:57 AM EST = -18; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 11:02 AM EST = -2; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
8/23/23; 10:46 AM EST = -18; signal line is -15
8/22/23; 10:28 AM EST = -34; signal line is -13
8/22/23; 10:17 AM EST = -18; signal line is -11
8/22/23; 9:59 AM EST = -34; signal line is -10
8/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -9
8/21/23; 10:17 AM EST = -34; signal line is -8
8/21/23; 9:57 AM EST = -18; signal line is -7
8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -6
8/18/23; 3:59 PM EST = -34; signal line is -4
8/18/23; 1:23 PM EST = -18; signal line is -3
8/18/23; 1:03 PM EST = -34; signal line is -2
8/18/23; 11:27 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1
8/17/23; 1:31 PM EST = -34; signal line is +0
8/17/23; 11:05 AM EST = -18; signal line is +1
8/17/23; 10:21 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1
8/16/23; 3:13 PM EST = -18; signal line is +2
8/16/23; 2:23 PM EST = -2; signal line is +3
8/16/23; 2:16 PM EST = -18; signal line is +4
8/16/23; 2:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 1:14 PM EST = -18; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 9:41 AM EST = -2; signal line is +6
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is +6
8/15/23; 3:32 PM EST = -18; signal line is +7
8/15/23; 10:10 AM EST = -2; signal line is +8; go short 4450; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 28 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising but in these markets things can change on a dime. The algo is busy printing 14 numbers Wednesday through Friday.

The failure in the chips ushered in the stock market weakness last week. Banks and retail stocks followed the semi's down the rabbit hole of doom.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks, banks, chips and lower volatility. Bears need a weaker NYA index and weaker commodities.

Bulls need RTH above 175.38, XLF above 34.25, SOX above 3580 and VIX below 15.50. If any one of the four turn bullish, the caution flag will be out. If 2 of the 4 turn bullish, the imminent turn to the long side will be in play, and if the SPX then rallies above 4382 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If 3 flip bullish, the algo will likely immediately flip long.

Bears need NYA below 15563 which will usher-in dramatic downside for US stocks. Bears also need GTX below 3400 which will create further stock market negativity.

Utilities were an early warning side of the stock market trouble as previously forecasted by the Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator web sites. The 2 bull/bear lines in the sand for utes this week are UTIL 959.19 and UTIL 936.00. UTIL price begins the week at the 878 palindrome so it is a tall ask for price to rally 58 points and more but you never know.

Of greater interest, and the reason the utes are discussed, is next week. For the week of 8/28/23, The UTIL 959.19 becomes a worthless number replaced with 914.83 a much easier goal for the bulls to achieve. Thus, if UTIL rallies this week and price is near or above 915 when markets close on Friday, that tells you that a relief rally is likely in progress for US stocks or about to begin.

If UTIL remains sub 9 hundo and lower, especially lower than 878, come Friday, that tells you that the US stock market is in Dire Straits and will perform the Walk of Life to Hades. If UTIL price languishes lower this week, the US stock market is in a crash profile where serious downside and collapse in stocks can occur. Watch the UTIL 915 line in the sand for next week, this week.

The table is set. Will market participants eat happy pasta or sh*t stew? Simply watch RTH 175.17, XLF 34.25 and NYA 15563 to know the direction ahead for stocks.

8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -6
8/18/23; 3:59 PM EST = -34; signal line is -4
8/18/23; 1:23 PM EST = -18; signal line is -3
8/18/23; 1:03 PM EST = -34; signal line is -2
8/18/23; 11:27 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1
8/17/23; 1:31 PM EST = -34; signal line is +0
8/17/23; 11:05 AM EST = -18; signal line is +1
8/17/23; 10:21 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1
8/16/23; 3:13 PM EST = -18; signal line is +2
8/16/23; 2:23 PM EST = -2; signal line is +3
8/16/23; 2:16 PM EST = -18; signal line is +4
8/16/23; 2:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 1:14 PM EST = -18; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 9:41 AM EST = -2; signal line is +6
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is +6
8/15/23; 3:32 PM EST = -18; signal line is +7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side yesterday at SPX 4450. The year of relentless choppy slop continues. Chips failed early in the session and banks failed late day creating the downside in US stocks. The algo number is 25 points below the signal line so the bears are growling.

Volatility, chips and banks are running the show right now. VIX 15.43 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is trading in real-time at 16.45 continuing the bearishness. 

Bulls need VIX below 15.43, SOX above 3597 and/or XLF above 34.25 to reverse course in stocks. If 2 of the 3 flip long, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be back in play.

Bears will create further carnage with weaker commodities specifically sending GTX below 3400.

Bears win with GTX below 3400. Bulls win with VIX below 15.43, SOX above 3597 and/or XLF above 34.25. If status quo remains, the US stock market will chop along flat with a downward bias.

On the last trade that ran for one day, the quant program and actual trading each lose -0.7% stringing several losses in a row due to the choppy sloppy price action. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up +16%. The Keybot the Quant program and actual trading are down almost -3%. Keybot exits DDM and enters PSQ remaining in the single 1x ETF's to reduce risk in the ongoing whipsaw environment. Whip it good.

8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/15/23; 3:32 PM EST = -18; signal line is +7
8/15/23; 10:10 AM EST = -2; signal line is +8; go short 4450; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.7%)
8/15/23; 9:49 AM EST = -2; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
8/15/23; 6:10 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:07 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 3:18 PM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 10:51 AM EST = +12; signal line is +8; go long 4481; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 4481. It is more choppy whipsaw slop. Even Keybot is starting to get chewed-up by the non-stop whipsaw buzzsaw. The bulls are in charge but only by 6 measly points nothing to write home about.

S&P futures are down nearly -30 and the VIX increases to 15.86 creating bearish price action. The VIX line in the sand is now at 15.43 so watch this like a hawk.

Watch chips. Bears will have their way if SOX drops below 3599. The chips turning bullish provided the orgy in stocks during the final minutes of trading yesterday.

If SOX drops below 3599, which may be on tap since futures are down substantively, and if the SPX drops below 4453, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. It is all choppy slop day after day.

On the last trade that only ran for about 10 trading hours, the quant program and the actual trading each lose about a half percent. Keybot deems the flip another whipsaw so the robot will remain in the single 1x ETF's into mid-September to reduce risk due to the choppy whipsaw slop. On the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +17%. The Keybot the Quant algo program and the actual trading generated by the quant are each down a couple percent on the year. Robots have a difficult time in non-trending markets. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY.

VIX 15.43 and SOX 3599 dictate stock market direction currently.

8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/15/23; 6:10 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:07 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 3:18 PM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 10:51 AM EST = +12; signal line is +8; go long 4481; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.0%)
8/14/23; 10:16 AM EST = +12; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains short
8/14/23; 8:02 AM EST = -2; signal line is +9
8/14/23; 3:56 AM EST = +12; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
8/14/23; 3:06 AM EST = -2; signal line is +10
8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 12:03 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 10:56 AM EST = -2; signal line is +12
8/11/23; 10:26 AM EST = +12; signal line is +13
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +14
8/11/23; 4:06 AM EST = -2; signal line is +15
8/11/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +17
8/10/23; 1:57 PM EST = -2; signal line is +18; go short 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short but champing at the bit to go long again. The stock market unpalatable chop suey continues. That's a ten-dollar college word in that sentence. The algo number is 1 point above the signal line since munchtime Friday so the robot wants to flip long but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

It is all riding on volatility; Uncle Vix. The bull/bear line in the sand that determines the direction of the US stock market ahead is VIX 15.63. Price is at 14.84 creating buoyancy in stocks. Bears need the VIX above 15.63 immediately, otherwise, they got buptkis. Bulls need to keep the VIX below 15.63 to prove that they can stage a relief rally. As volatility goes, so goes the stock market in the opposite direction (SPX and VIX are an inverse correlation over 92% of the time).

If the VIX remains below 15.63, and the SPX rallies on Monday morning above 4476 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

A gap up open is not good for bulls since it may trigger a timer that delays the flip to the long side for about 90 minutes. Bulls need S&P futures to be positive by only a few points, then after the opening bell, the SPX cash index needs to slowly move higher and then at about 12 points higher, the model may flip long. A strong gap-up open of 12 points or higher will probably trigger the gap-up timer.

The breakdown in semiconductors last week was a big deal but very few people even gave it a passing nod. Analysts assume AI is a new bright horizon and chips will lead. AI, schmy. Copper is also sinking in the ooze as China's economy disappoints. Of course it does. Filthy Dictator Xi is ruling China under a full-blown communist system and Western companies are jumping ship (90 million dirtbags in the CCP, led by Xi, control the 1.4 billion Chinese folks that must do what they are told or face punishment, prison or death; such is communism). Bulls need SOX above 3611 and CPER above 23.70 to prove that stocks can rally again; a tall order for the week ahead.

Bears need VIX above 15.63 pronto as explained above and weaker banks would create the next leg lower for stocks. Bears need XLF below 34.20 for the stock market to fall apart. This also is a tall order.

Watch VIX in the week ahead since it will tell you who is winning. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Wednesday morning which is also when the new moon peaks for the month (darkest time of month so fighting in Ukraine will intensify since night vision equipment rules). Bad Moon Rising?

8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 12:03 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 10:56 AM EST = -2; signal line is +12
8/11/23; 10:26 AM EST = +12; signal line is +13
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish but yesterday was a circus. The whipsaw choppy slop continues this year with the US stock market staging a -1.5% intraday reversal. We're goin' off the rails on Ozzie's Crazy Train.

Keybot the Quant flipped long at the opening bell yesterday due to chips and volatility turning bullish but then both parameters fell on their sword after munchtime creating the intraday reversal. The robot whipsawed flipping back to the short side at 2 PM EST. It is extremely rare for the quant to whipsaw in the same day. The drama continues since the algo number is only 16 points below the signal line after this week's pre-scheduled number prints minutes ago.

Bulls need SOX above 3615, CPER above 23.71 and/or VIX below 15.62. Any one of these flipping bullish will stop the market selling and start to create a recovery rally.

Bears need XLF below 34.20 to create market carnage.

On the last trades, a double-flip, the losses were marginal both ways but the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant turn negative on the year. Is the 10-months of choppy slop going to sink Keybot the Quant this year? Time will tell. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up +16%. The quant program is down a percent and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is down a couple percent so far in 2023. Keybot exits DDM and enters SH on the last trade. The robot drops down into 1x ETF mode due to the triggering of the whipsaw timer. Keybot will remain in the non-leveraged single ETF's for the next 30 days due to the erratic and sloppy price action (that chews-up bulls and bears alike).

Chips, copper and volatility are all that matter and the bulls say they are Letting Me Down.

8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +14
8/11/23; 4:06 AM EST = -2; signal line is +15
8/11/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +17
8/10/23; 1:57 PM EST = -2; signal line is +18; go short 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.7%)
8/10/23; 11:52 AM EST = -2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/10/23; 11:51 AM EST = +14; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
8/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22; go short 4506; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)
8/10/23; 8:53 AM EST = +12; signal line is +22
8/10/23; 8:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is +22
8/10/23; 8:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +24
8/10/23; 5:03 AM EST = -2; signal line is +25
8/10/23; 4:46 AM EST = +12; signal line is +26
8/10/23; 4:15 AM EST = -2; signal line is +27
8/10/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +29
8/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -2; signal line is +30
8/9/23; 3:44 PM EST = +14; signal line is +32
8/9/23; 2:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33
8/9/23; 10:57 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34
8/9/23; 10:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:43 AM EST = +14; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 5:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 4:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is +38
8/8/23; 9:45 AM EST = +14; signal line is +38; go short 4479; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The robot was busy yesterday spitting-out 9 numbers and the VIX is already active this early morning in the States flipping back to the bull camp.

Semiconductors failed yesterday creating the soggy stock market. Chips, volatility and copper are all that matter.

Bulls need SOX above 3615.50, now only 5 bucks away, to create buoyancy in the stock market. S&P futures are higher so this will likely occur. Inflation data drops at 8:30 AM EST, less than 4 hours away, and will move markets so the jury remains out.

The VIX is at 15.61. That is funny. The bull/bear line in the sand is ....... wait for it ....... wait a bit longer for it ........ no, you really should wait longer for it since it is remarkable ....... 15.61. Keybot tells you the important numbers before they occur. The battle at VIX 15.61 will continue today.

Bulls need CPER above 23.73 which represents a +1.2% gain in the red metal. Copper futures are up +0.4% so the bulls have more work to do.

Thus, copper is remaining bearish for now, so semi's and volatility will likely dictate the path ahead. If VIX remains below 15.61, and if the SOX turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 4502, Keybot the Quant would likely flip long. S&P futures are up +25 points. The SPX is at 4468 so a 25-point boost would place the cash index at 4493. The bulls will need more than that. All eyes are focused on the inflation data.

8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +29
8/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -2; signal line is +30
8/9/23; 3:44 PM EST = +14; signal line is +32
8/9/23; 2:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33
8/9/23; 10:57 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34
8/9/23; 10:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:43 AM EST = +14; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 5:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 4:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is +38

Messages May Be Sporadic Going Forward Due to Ongoing Harassment and Shadow-Banning of the K E Stone Blogs

The K E Stone blogs (Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator) continue to be shadow-banned and screwed on social media platforms mainly due to the Coronavirus Chronology that chronicled each day of the 3-year COVID-19 pandemic both the successes and the many failures, mistakes and misinformation and disinformation spewed by the US government and medical officials.

The corrupt political parties in America's crony capitalism system (demopublicans and republocrats) are only interested in pushing their sick narratives to maintain power and control. Any information questioning or deviating from the controlled narrative is crushed.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday morning at SPX 4479. Copper and volatility are all that matter right now and the VIX just turned bullish again an hour ago. Today will be interesting.

The volatility bull/bear line in the sand is VIX 15.62. The VIX is trading in real-time at 15.56 in the bull camp by pennies. Obviously, the bears need the VIX above 15.62 if they want to growl today.

The copper bull/bear line in the sand is CPER 23.73 with price set to start the hump day session at 23.38 in the bear camp. Bulls need a +1.5% pop in copper futures to send CPER higher into the bull camp. Copper futures were up near +1.5% a short time ago but now up +1.1% so the bulls are trying to pump the red metal but not quite there yet.

If CPER moves above 23.73, and the SPX moves above 4520, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back into the bull camp so the imminent turn notation can remain in the title line for now. The stock market remains a mixed-up bag of chop suey for the last 10 months.

Bears will be on easy street sending stocks lower if they can keep CPER below 23.73 and push the VIX back above 15.62. Look at that. The VIX is now at 15.60 only a couple pennies from the bull/bear line setting up today's drama.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading generated by the robot loses a couple percent. For the year thus far, with 7 months in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up nearly +17%. The quant program is flat on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up only one percent in 2023. The choppy whipsaw slop and wild gap-up and gap-down moves wreak havoc on algorithms but Keybot the Quant is holding its own during this tumultuous year. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. If the flip would have occurred on Monday, a couple trading hours sooner, it would have triggered a whipsaw signal and the robot would have dropped into the 1x ETF's. Time will tell if a whipsaw occurs today or early tomorrow.

As this message is posted, the VIX is at 15.63; see if it holds, or not. Watch copper and volatility. Nothing Else Matters.

8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/9/23; 4:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is +38
8/8/23; 9:45 AM EST = +14; signal line is +38; go short 4479; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)
8/8/23; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/4/23; 2:27 PM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/4/23; 9:33 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40; go long 4524; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side on Friday at SPX 4524; the multi-month choppy slop continues. Comically, the robot already wants to flip back to the short side with the algo number 10 points below the signal line so the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

If the SPX moves lower in an orderly fashion on Monday morning and drops and trends below 4475, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. This represents only a 3 point drop in S&P futures overnight Sunday into Monday for the bears to growl again.

Volatility dictated the price action on Friday. The VIX is the only thing that mattered to the stock market. The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 15.91 with price at 17.10 creating market negativity. Early Friday, after the jobs report, volatility dropped like a rock sending stocks higher but as the day played out, volatility increased sinking stocks. Bulls must push VIX below 15.91, otherwise, they have no hope going forward.

The bears need weaker copper, banks and chips so you can watch these sectors before the opening bell to gauge the strength, or lack thereof, of the market.  Bears need CPER below 23.73, XLF below 34.08 and/or SOX below 3612. Any one of these three turning bearish will create another leg down with the broad stock market. Two turning bearish will create substantive downside in stocks. If all 3 turn bearish in the days ahead, stocks will be collapsing. The utilities remain in failure mode predicting serious doom and gloom for the US stock market for the weeks ahead.

Bears can flip the model back to the short side if SPX drops below 4475. The downside and collapse in stocks will be accelerated if copper, banks or semi's fail as explained above.

Bulls need to keep copper, banks and semiconductors in their camp while at the same time pushing VIX below 15.91 to maintain control of the stock market direction.

On the last trade that ran for a couple days, the algo program and actual trading were dead flat. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +18%, the quant program is up about a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +3% so far in 2023. The year of chop suey continues.

Monday's opening bell will be interesting and the story will be told by either SPX 4475 (bearish) or VIX 15.91 (bullish). The VIX trades overnight so you can get a heads-up on what will happen in the US markets if you monitor the VIX between 3 AM EST and 9 AM EST Monday. Also, watch copper futures and check tickers such as XLF, XSD, SMH and NVDA in the pre-market to forecast the path ahead for Monday.

8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/23; 2:27 PM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/4/23; 9:33 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40; go long 4524; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)
8/4/23; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/4/23; 8:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/4/23; 7:11 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40
8/4/23; 3:12 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/3/23; 1:46 PM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/3/23; 1:25 PM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/2/23; 10:58 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39; go short 4518; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at 11 AM EST, before munchtime, at SPX 4518. Volatility spikes and serves as the coffin nail for bulls. Utilities remain in failure mode threatening to send the stock market to Hades.

Copper remained elevated on happy China stimulus talk but that has faded over the last couple days and the red metal may turn bearish today creating another leg lower for stocks.

For today, Thursday, stocks may hold steady waiting on the US Monthly Jobs Report, now only 28 hours away. Copper and volatility are dictating stock market direction.

The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 15.86. VIX is trading over 17 in real-time creating negativity. S&P futures are down -21 deteriorating over the last hour. Bulls have absolutely no hope going forward unless they can push the VIX beach ball back under water at 15.86. Stocks will rally if the VIX drops below 15.86.

The CPER line in the sand is 23.72 with price starting today at 23.76 only pennies away from failure. Copper futures would need to lose only -0.2% to cause the failure and create more stock market negativity. Copper futures are down -0.4% so it makes sense that futures are dropping. 

On the last trade, that ran for almost a month, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +4%. For the year thus far, with 7 months in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +18%. Isn't that something? A big bullish year but will it hold? The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +1.4% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +3% in 2023 thus far a great showing considering the 10 months of choppy messy whipsaw slop. The plugs were pulled on many quants and algos because they cannot ride the bucking stock market like Keybot can. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. Maybe the stock market will start trending more instead of displaying more choppy slop.

The algo number is only 9 points below the signal line so the bears will need to create more difference if they want to take stocks lower. Watch copper since it will tell you the stock market story today.

8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/23; 10:58 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39; go short 4518; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)
8/2/23; 10:51 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/2/23; 5:52 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40
8/2/23; 4:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +40
7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/25/23; 10:25 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/25/23; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/24/23; 11:24 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
7/24/23; 10:37 AM EST = +44 signal line is +33
7/24/23; 10:20 AM EST = +28; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32
7/21/23; 10:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +31
7/21/23; 10:52 AM EST = +28; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
7/21/23; 10:42 AM EST = +44; signal line is +30
7/21/23; 9:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
7/20/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +28
7/19/23; 1:27 PM EST = +28; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 12:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +24
7/19/23; 12:09 PM EST = +44; signal line is +23
7/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22
7/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:54 AM EST = +44; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +17
7/16/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +17
7/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15
7/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +13
7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +11
7/7/23; 1:37 PM EST = +28; signal line is +10
7/7/23; 1:17 PM EST = +44; signal line is +8
7/7/23; 12:30 PM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 4425; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -3.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.0%)