STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4431 as this year's choppy slop continues. Markets are up, down, down, up. Baby What You Want Me To Do? The bulls are back in charge with the algo number 29 points above the signal line. Chips, copper and retail stocks pump the broad stock market higher. NVDA earnings hype creates another spurt higher for the AI orgy.

Bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility to prove that they got game. VIX 15.37 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is trading in real-time at 15.59 in the bear camp. Despite the overnight euphoria in markets, the VIX is not yet in the bull camp. Watch VIX 15.37 closely because if the bulls cannot push below, they got nothing and the rally in stocks will not have legs instead rolling back over to the downside in a few days. If VIX loses the 15.37 level, the upside rally in stocks will develop into an upside orgy.

Bulls will also create another leg higher in stocks if XLF exceeds 34.17 which is only pennies away. Thus, VIX 15.37 and XLF 34.17 tells you if the bulls can take stocks higher, or not.

Bears need weaker retail stocks, copper and chips. The RTH keeps tagging the 175.34 line in the sand identified by the robot with price at ...... wait for it ....... 175.35 one penny in the bull camp. Obviously, how retail stocks go, so goes the market.

Bears also need CPER below 23.51 (and copper futures are negative so this will likely fail into the bear camp) and SOX below 3575. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play, and if the SPX falls below 4396, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

Volatility, banks, retail stocks, copper and chips are the sectors controlling stock market direction currently.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program has a marginal gain and the actual trading generated by the quant loses a smidge because it was in a tech ETF. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark is up about +15%, the quant program is down -2% and the actual trading is down -3%. Despite the down year so far, the robot continues holding its own against the non-stop whipsaw choppy sloppy action since the end of last year. Keybot exits PSQ and enters QQQ.

VIX below 15.37 would confirm that the upside in stocks is real for a few days forward. RTH below 175.34, along with weaker copper, will hint that the euphoria in stocks may be short-lived. Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart as Joey sang.

8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/23; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -15
8/23/23; 3:33 PM EST = -2; signal line is -16
8/23/23; 1:15 PM EST = +14; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 12:43 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17; go long 4431; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.0%)
8/23/23; 12:13 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
8/23/23; 11:57 AM EST = -18; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 11:02 AM EST = -2; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
8/23/23; 10:46 AM EST = -18; signal line is -15
8/22/23; 10:28 AM EST = -34; signal line is -13
8/22/23; 10:17 AM EST = -18; signal line is -11
8/22/23; 9:59 AM EST = -34; signal line is -10
8/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -9
8/21/23; 10:17 AM EST = -34; signal line is -8
8/21/23; 9:57 AM EST = -18; signal line is -7
8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -6
8/18/23; 3:59 PM EST = -34; signal line is -4
8/18/23; 1:23 PM EST = -18; signal line is -3
8/18/23; 1:03 PM EST = -34; signal line is -2
8/18/23; 11:27 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1
8/17/23; 1:31 PM EST = -34; signal line is +0
8/17/23; 11:05 AM EST = -18; signal line is +1
8/17/23; 10:21 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1
8/16/23; 3:13 PM EST = -18; signal line is +2
8/16/23; 2:23 PM EST = -2; signal line is +3
8/16/23; 2:16 PM EST = -18; signal line is +4
8/16/23; 2:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 1:14 PM EST = -18; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 9:41 AM EST = -2; signal line is +6
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is +6
8/15/23; 3:32 PM EST = -18; signal line is +7
8/15/23; 10:10 AM EST = -2; signal line is +8; go short 4450; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.7%)