Friday, August 11, 2023

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish but yesterday was a circus. The whipsaw choppy slop continues this year with the US stock market staging a -1.5% intraday reversal. We're goin' off the rails on Ozzie's Crazy Train.

Keybot the Quant flipped long at the opening bell yesterday due to chips and volatility turning bullish but then both parameters fell on their sword after munchtime creating the intraday reversal. The robot whipsawed flipping back to the short side at 2 PM EST. It is extremely rare for the quant to whipsaw in the same day. The drama continues since the algo number is only 16 points below the signal line after this week's pre-scheduled number prints minutes ago.

Bulls need SOX above 3615, CPER above 23.71 and/or VIX below 15.62. Any one of these flipping bullish will stop the market selling and start to create a recovery rally.

Bears need XLF below 34.20 to create market carnage.

On the last trades, a double-flip, the losses were marginal both ways but the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant turn negative on the year. Is the 10-months of choppy slop going to sink Keybot the Quant this year? Time will tell. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up +16%. The quant program is down a percent and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is down a couple percent so far in 2023. Keybot exits DDM and enters SH on the last trade. The robot drops down into 1x ETF mode due to the triggering of the whipsaw timer. Keybot will remain in the non-leveraged single ETF's for the next 30 days due to the erratic and sloppy price action (that chews-up bulls and bears alike).

Chips, copper and volatility are all that matter and the bulls say they are Letting Me Down.

8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +14
8/11/23; 4:06 AM EST = -2; signal line is +15
8/11/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +17
8/10/23; 1:57 PM EST = -2; signal line is +18; go short 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.7%)
8/10/23; 11:52 AM EST = -2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/10/23; 11:51 AM EST = +14; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
8/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22; go short 4506; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)
8/10/23; 8:53 AM EST = +12; signal line is +22
8/10/23; 8:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is +22
8/10/23; 8:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +24
8/10/23; 5:03 AM EST = -2; signal line is +25
8/10/23; 4:46 AM EST = +12; signal line is +26
8/10/23; 4:15 AM EST = -2; signal line is +27
8/10/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +29
8/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -2; signal line is +30
8/9/23; 3:44 PM EST = +14; signal line is +32
8/9/23; 2:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33
8/9/23; 10:57 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34
8/9/23; 10:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:43 AM EST = +14; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 5:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 4:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is +38
8/8/23; 9:45 AM EST = +14; signal line is +38; go short 4479; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)

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