STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at 11 AM EST, before munchtime, at SPX 4518. Volatility spikes and serves as the coffin nail for bulls. Utilities remain in failure mode threatening to send the stock market to Hades.

Copper remained elevated on happy China stimulus talk but that has faded over the last couple days and the red metal may turn bearish today creating another leg lower for stocks.

For today, Thursday, stocks may hold steady waiting on the US Monthly Jobs Report, now only 28 hours away. Copper and volatility are dictating stock market direction.

The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 15.86. VIX is trading over 17 in real-time creating negativity. S&P futures are down -21 deteriorating over the last hour. Bulls have absolutely no hope going forward unless they can push the VIX beach ball back under water at 15.86. Stocks will rally if the VIX drops below 15.86.

The CPER line in the sand is 23.72 with price starting today at 23.76 only pennies away from failure. Copper futures would need to lose only -0.2% to cause the failure and create more stock market negativity. Copper futures are down -0.4% so it makes sense that futures are dropping. 

On the last trade, that ran for almost a month, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +4%. For the year thus far, with 7 months in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +18%. Isn't that something? A big bullish year but will it hold? The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +1.4% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +3% in 2023 thus far a great showing considering the 10 months of choppy messy whipsaw slop. The plugs were pulled on many quants and algos because they cannot ride the bucking stock market like Keybot can. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. Maybe the stock market will start trending more instead of displaying more choppy slop.

The algo number is only 9 points below the signal line so the bears will need to create more difference if they want to take stocks lower. Watch copper since it will tell you the stock market story today.

8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/23; 10:58 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39; go short 4518; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)
8/2/23; 10:51 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/2/23; 5:52 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40
8/2/23; 4:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +40
7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/25/23; 10:25 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/25/23; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/24/23; 11:24 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
7/24/23; 10:37 AM EST = +44 signal line is +33
7/24/23; 10:20 AM EST = +28; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32
7/21/23; 10:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +31
7/21/23; 10:52 AM EST = +28; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
7/21/23; 10:42 AM EST = +44; signal line is +30
7/21/23; 9:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
7/20/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +28
7/19/23; 1:27 PM EST = +28; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 12:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +24
7/19/23; 12:09 PM EST = +44; signal line is +23
7/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22
7/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:54 AM EST = +44; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +17
7/16/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +17
7/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15
7/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +13
7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +11
7/7/23; 1:37 PM EST = +28; signal line is +10
7/7/23; 1:17 PM EST = +44; signal line is +8
7/7/23; 12:30 PM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 4425; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -3.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.0%)