STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 38 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising keeping NYA above 15065-15068 and retail stocks rally creating another leg higher for stocks.

The bulls need stronger commodities to keep the upside party going. Bulls need GTX above 3365 (now at 3280) to create more upside in stocks. Stronger banks and utilities will also help bulls.

The bears need weaker retail stocks and NYA index and higher volatility. Bears need RTH below 160, NYA below 15065 and/or VIX above 20.97. Any 1 of these 3 will stop the rally in stocks and require the 'caution' sign in the title line. 2 of the 3 will turn markets very negative and require the 'turn may be imminent' notation in the title line. All 3 are likely required to flip the model short.

4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/30/23; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -26
3/29/23; 11:37 AM EST = -4; signal line is -27

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. NYA overtakes 15065 so the upside buying orgy occurs. Keep watching it to see if the bulls can maintain this uber bullish signal, or, if they will fold like a cheap suit. The bulls maintain control with the algo number 23 points above the signal line.

For the bulls, they need to maintain NYA above 15065 and then push RTH above 159.95 to create another big leg higher in stocks.

For the bears, they need to push NYA below 15065 which will signal that the bulls do not have upside oomph. The bears then need to either push VIX above 20.98 or SPX below 3960, either one would do, to likely flip the model short.

Watch NYA 15065, RTH 159.95, VIX 20.98 and SPX 3960 currently controlling stock market direction. Bulls want a higher NYA index and higher retail stocks while bears want a lower NYA index and higher volatility.

4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/29/23; 11:37 AM EST = -4; signal line is -27
3/29/23; 11:03 AM EST = -18; signal line is -29
3/29/23; 9:57 AM EST = -4; signal line is -31
3/28/23; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the choppy slop continues. The bulls remain in control of stock market direction with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. This is nothing to write home about since the sideways chop may continue.

The quant is tracking VIX 21.02, SPX 3960 and NYA 15065 as the key parameters controlling market direction currently. Bears pushed lower yesterday sending the VIX above 21 and SPX below 3960 but if you blinked you missed it. The bulls fight back quickly recovering sending the VIX back below 21.02 and the SPX above 3960. S&P futures are up +30 points this early morning on the East Coast so the bulls are puffing their chests out feeling pretty good about the path forward.

NYA 15065 will be the big test today. As stocks rally, watch to see if NYA 15065 is taken out to the upside. If so, the bulls are going to rally big going forward. If the NYA comes up and bumps its head on 15065 and fails lower again, that is likely indicating that stocks will begin a downward path.

Bulls need to keep VIX below 21.02 (now at 19.30) and SPX above 3960 and push NYA above 15065 to begin an orgy of upside buying.

Bears need to stop NYA 15065 from occurring today and at the same time push the VIX above 21.02 and the SPX below 3960 to create market carnage. If VIX or SPX turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses 3952, the model will likely flip short.

4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/23; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -33
3/28/23; 2:21 PM EST = -32; signal line is -34
3/28/23; 1:46 PM EST = -46; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains long
3/28/23; 1:40 PM EST = -32; signal line is -36
3/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -36
3/27/23; 1:28 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38; go long 3984; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3984 with the markets remaining in whipsaw psycho mode. The whole year is choppy slop thus far.

The algo wanted to flip long yesterday at the open but the gap-up move occurs delaying the turn and as the timer expired, other parameters would not latch. It is crazy interesting price action. As the session continued, volatility turned bullish creating the turn to the long side. 

The algo number is 21 points above the signal line. The SPX starts on Tuesday at 3978 but the S&P futures are down -3.

VIX 21.05 and SPX 3960 are running the show. Both are bullish with the VIX now trading at 20.97 and the SPX is at 3977 to start the day. Volatility is a game of pennies right now. Watch the VIX like a hawk. If the VIX remains below 21.05, the bulls remain in the game to drive stocks wildly higher. If the VIX moves above 21.05, and it is teasing in real-time, that would signal a soggy or flat day ahead and the bulls will likely not have the oomph to take stocks much higher.

Bears stop the upside in stocks if VIX moves above 21.05 and the downside for stocks will accelerate, and the quant likely flip short, if the SPX drops below 3960. It's fun. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning at 10 AM EST. Month and Q1 ends on Friday.

On the last trade, that ran for a couple days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. For the year, with Q1 almost finished, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +4%. The Keybot the Quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down -2% on the year thus far. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Watch VIX 21.05. It is more important than what the futures are doing since it tells you where the markets are going.

4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/23; 1:28 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38; go long 3984; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.3%)
3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST = -31; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
3/24/23; 3:23 PM EST = -31; signal line is -40 but algorithm remains short
3/24/23; 3:08 PM EST = -45; signal line is -40
3/24/23; 2:43 PM EST = -31; signal line is -41 but algorithm remains short
3/23/23; 2:40 PM EST = -45; signal line is -42; go short 3936; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after another day of market angst. The quant is champing at the bit to go long but the bulls could not win the day yesterday. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line so Keybot wants to flip long but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move.

The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it so the Monday session will be interesting. The story is simple. The Sunday number will print and not change anything. The bulls need to push the SPX above 3973 to try and flip the model long so only +2 positive points are needed in the S&P futures overnight Sunday into Monday.

The bulls need a gentle steady move higher so the quant can flip long. If there is a wild gap-up move on Monday morning, it will likely trigger the gap-up timer and the algo would be prohibited from flipping long for about 1-1/2 hours. Thus, the price action in the first 10 minutes of the cash session at 9:30 AM EST on Monday morning is important.

The bears simply need to push the SPX below 3960 and all bets are off for the long side. The bears will begin growling again.

SPX 3960 and VIX 21.08 are all that matter currently. Copper remains buoyant bolstering the bull case for stocks. If the SPX remains above 3960 trending higher, especially above 3973, the bulls will rule going forward. If the VIX drops below, 21.08, there will be an upside orgy party in the stock market.

Bears need to keep the VIX elevated above 21.08 while at the same time pulling the SPX below 3960 to prove they still got game.

3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/24/23; 3:23 PM EST = -31; signal line is -40 but algorithm remains short
3/24/23; 3:08 PM EST = -45; signal line is -40
3/24/23; 2:43 PM EST = -31; signal line is -41 but algorithm remains short
3/23/23; 2:40 PM EST = -45; signal line is -42; go short 3936; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3936 yesterday afternoon. The choppy slop continues this year chewing-up bulls and bears alike.

The VIX pops above 21.06 and the SPX falls below 3960 creating the stock market selling. These same parameters remain in play. VIX is trading at 22.08 just coming on line now remaining bearish.

The bears are in control but the bulls can flip the table on the bears if they can move the SPX above 3960 and/or VIX below 21.06. Keybot the Quant may flip back to the long side if either parameter turns bullish and if the SPX moves above 4008 so it is best to leave the imminent turn notation in play. 2023 is a choppy sloppy mess.

Humorously, S&P futures are up +11 and the SPX cash index begins at 3949 so this would place the index at ...... wait for it .......... wait for it ........ 3960. The battle continues. Keep a coin handy so you can flip it.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, more chop suey, the algo program loses -1.7% and the actual trading loses -0.7%. The tech stocks are holding up better than the broad market this week. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up a couple percent, the quant program is down a percent, and the actual trading generated by the quant is dead flat in 2023. Call it all flat. Keybot exits QQQ and enters SDS returning to the 2x leveraged ETF's after a whipsaw timer expired.

3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/23/23; 2:40 PM EST = -45; signal line is -42; go short 3936; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)
3/23/23; 2:27 PM EST = -45; signal line is -43 but algorithm remains long
3/23/23; 12:45 PM EST = -31; signal line is -43
3/23/23; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -44
3/22/23; 3:58 PM EST = -45; signal line is -46
3/22/23; 3:53 PM EST = -31; signal line is -46
3/22/23; 3:21 PM EST = -17; signal line is -47
3/22/23; 3:10 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48
3/22/23; 1:58 PM EST = -17; signal line is -48
3/22/23; 12:39 PM EST = -31; signal line is -49
3/22/23; 12:31 PM EST = -17; signal line is -49
3/22/23; 12:18 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50
3/22/23; 9:04 AM EST = -17; signal line is -50
3/21/23; 3:40 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50; go long 4004; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but the bulls are hanging on by a fingernail with the algo number only 1 tiny point above the signal line. The stock market is a coin-toss.

Yesterday, you saw the NYA come up and bump its head on the 15065 and then collapse signaling the end of day bearishness. The SPX loses the critical 3960 at the end of the session and this battle at the important 3960 will continue.

For today, the SPX, VIX and CPER tell the market story. Bulls need SPX above 3960 and/or VIX below 21.06 to guarantee a bullish rally ahead. One parameter turning bullish creates stock market upside and both turning bullish will create an upside orgy.

The S&P futures are up +20 and the VIX is trading at 21.51. Thus, the bulls have work to do needing to drive volatility lower. With the SPX starting at 3937 in the regular session, a move like the futures would put the cash price at 3957 knocking on the 3960 door. This is obviously the battleground today.

Bears need weaker copper to create negativity. Bears need CPER below 24.32 which represents a -1.4% drop in copper futures that are currently trading flat.

If SPX 3960 and higher occurs, the bulls are flexing their muscles and if the VIX drops below 21.06, it proves that up is the path ahead for stocks. If the SPX stalls at 3960 and begins trending lower while the VIX trends higher, the bears will growl strongly as they attack Dr Copper.

SPX 3960 dictates if the stock market is bullish or bearish going forward on a multi-week basis.

3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/22/23; 3:58 PM EST = -45; signal line is -46
3/22/23; 3:53 PM EST = -31; signal line is -46
3/22/23; 3:21 PM EST = -17; signal line is -47
3/22/23; 3:10 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48
3/22/23; 1:58 PM EST = -17; signal line is -48
3/22/23; 12:39 PM EST = -31; signal line is -49
3/22/23; 12:31 PM EST = -17; signal line is -49
3/22/23; 12:18 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50
3/22/23; 9:04 AM EST = -17; signal line is -50
3/21/23; 3:40 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50; go long 4004; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX  4004 near the end of yesterday's session. The SPX and copper rallied out of the gate so you knew the bulls were taking the ball and running down field.

The bulls are in control of stock market direction as Pope Powell provides a rate decision today that will create market angst. The algo number is 19 points above the signal line. Dr Copper remains a key parameter impacting market direction. The bears need to pull CPER below 24.30 to stop the rally. This represents a -0.7% drop in copper futures that are currently up +0.6% so the bears have work to do.

The bears also need to pull SPX back below 3960. It is a big deal to see SPX above 3960 (bullish).

Bulls need NYA above 15065 (now at 14986) and/or VIX below 21.07 (now at 21.74) to create more stock market upside. NYA tells the story today. Bulls win big if NYA pops above 15065. Bears are hiding in the bushes and ready to pounce if the NYA is unable to attain 15065.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, it is more marginal moves. For the year, with Q1 almost in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500 Index, the US stock market, is up about +4%. The Keybot the Quant program and actual trading generated by the quant is up marginally for 2023. Keybot exits DOG and enters QQQ.

As Pope Powell speaks today, watch the NYA, VIX, SPX and copper. Bulls win if NYA moves above 15065 and win big if the VIX drops below 21.07. Bears win if the SPX falls below the critical 3960 and win big if copper futures turn negative and drop -0.7%. Easy peasy.

3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/21/23; 3:40 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50; go long 4004; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.7%)
3/21/23; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -51 but algorithm remans short
3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = -61; signal line is -51
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST = -61; signal line is -49
3/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = -61; signal line is -47
3/16/23; 3:59 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46
3/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -61; signal line is -44
3/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = -61; signal line is -41
3/14/23; 3:59 PM EST = -45; signal line is -39
3/14/23; 3:23 PM EST = -61; signal line is -37
3/14/23; 3:08 PM EST = -45; signal line is -35
3/14/23; 1:31 PM EST = -61; signal line is -34
3/13/23; 11:01 AM EST = -45; signal line is -32
3/13/23; 10:14 AM EST = -61; signal line is -31
3/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = -77; signal line is -29
3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = -61; signal line is -27
3/10/23; 3:59 PM EST = -61; signal line is -25
3/10/23; 3:58 PM EST = -45; signal line is -22
3/10/23; 3:47 PM EST = -61; signal line is -21
3/10/23; 2:11 PM EST = -45; signal line is -19
3/10/23; 1:37 PM EST = -61; signal line is -18
3/10/23; 12:01 PM EST = -45; signal line is -16
3/10/23; 10:59 AM EST = -31; signal line is -14
3/10/23; 10:21 AM EST = -45; signal line is -12
3/10/23; 10:07 AM EST = -31; signal line is -10
3/10/23; 9:45 AM EST = -45; signal line is -9
3/10/23; 9:00 AM EST = -31; signal line is -8
3/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -31; signal line is -7
3/9/23; 3:15 PM EST = -47; signal line is -7
3/9/23; 2:55 PM EST = -31; signal line is -6
3/9/23; 1:52 PM EST = -17; signal line is -6
3/8/23; 9:38 AM EST = -3; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
3/7/23; 10:03 AM EST = -19; signal line is -6; go short 4024; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo number is 10 points below the signal line which is not a ringing endorsement of bear strength. Semiconductors are single-handedly holding up and supporting the stock market and the chips rallied yesterday.

Both SPX and CPER came up to test their critical levels setting up a showdown over the next couple days as the Federal Reserve speaks. Stock market control is dictated by the SPX and copper versus chips.

Bears need SOX below 2970 if they want to create carnage. This represents about a -4.7% drop in chips so the bears have their work cut out for them.

Bulls need SPX above 3959.25 (now at 3952) and/or CPER above 24.29 (now at 24.17). Either parameter flipping long will likely flip Keybot the Quant long hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. S&P futures are up +15. Bingo. The bulls plan to push higher. Copper futures are up +0.4% and +0.5% will create bullish joy so the pre-market and futures are set up for the bulls.

Stocks are typically positive 80% of the time leading into the Fed decisions so perhaps that accounts for some of the buoyancy in S&P futures. Traders and investors will likely want to wait for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High on hump day and tell everyone how to trade the corrupt market.

The set-up favors bulls and the model may flip long out of the gate today. The opening bell is still 5 hours away. A slow steady up move will empower the bulls but jumpy choppy action may simply create more of the same malaise. Keybot only sees the 1's and 0's so it will be interesting to see how it plays out today.

3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = -61; signal line is -51
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST = -61; signal line is -49

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the roller coaster ride of bank insolvencies. The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 10 points below the signal line.

Comically, semiconductors are the only only major parameter holding up the US stock market. Anyone long the market better hope the chips do not crack or crumble but that is rarely the case for a bag of potato chips.

Bears need to pull SOX below 2930 (now at 3084). If they succeed, it is completely over for the stock market. Bloody carnage will be the fate each day forward.

Bulls need to desperately keep the chips elevated while pulling the SPX and copper higher. You saw on Friday how the SPX failed through 3955 so it was bye-bye stock market. Bulls need to reclaim 3955 as fast as possible starting the week at 3917.

Higher copper will also help the bulls but a +2.4% pop in copper futures is needed. Watch overnight Sunday to see if copper can catch a strong bid since it will tell you what is in store for Monday in the US.

If either SPX moves above 3955 or CPER above 24.33, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip long.

If the chips ae soggy and weak to begin the week, that spells trouble. If the semi's are trading positive in the pre-market early Monday morning, the bulls have a chance to stabilize the stock market.

3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = 
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST = -61; signal line is -49
3/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = -61; signal line is -47
3/16/23; 3:59 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number only 1 point on the bear side. The big rally yesterday was not enough to flip the model long yet. Banks and copper remain weak.

The big drama occurring today is SPX 3960. This is where price is at and this is exactly the critical 12-month MA which is a key cyclical market signal. SPX 3960 is for all the marbles going forward. Bulls win big above. Bears win big below 3960 and bears will create carnage below 3925.

Bulls would be helped with VIX below 21.10 (now trading at 22.87 in real-time). Bulls also need NYA above 15050 to create huge upside in stocks.

If the SPX jogs above and below 3960 after the US opening bell, say 10 minutes above 3960, but then 10 minutes or a half-hour below 3960, then back above 3960, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears can maintain weakness in the US stock market by simply keeping SPX below 3960. The drama continues and Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell.

Happy St Patrick's Day; will the markets wear green today?

3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/23; 3:59 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46
3/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -61; signal line is -44
3/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = -61; signal line is -41
3/14/23; 3:59 PM EST = -45; signal line is -39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market turmoil continues after the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank insolvencies. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 6 measly points below the signal line so the bearish conviction is questioned.

The battle for market control is chips and copper versus the SPX and NYA indexes.

Bears need SOX below 2920 and/or CPER below 24.42 to create new stock market weakness. Copper futures need to drop about -0.3% and are down -0.6% about 6 hours before the US opening bell so bears are smiling as they guzzle coffee.

Bulls need SPX above 3957 and/or NYA above 15055. Either one will signal an upside rally in place and both would signal an upside orgy underway. If either parameter turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play for the quant and it would likely flip long.

S&P futures are flat. The current weakness in copper hints that the set-up today is an advantage to the bears but the red metal is jumpy and was dead flat an hour ago.

3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/14/23; 3:59 PM EST = -45; signal line is -39
3/14/23; 3:23 PM EST = -61; signal line is -37
3/14/23; 3:08 PM EST = -45; signal line is -35
3/14/23; 1:31 PM EST = -61; signal line is -34
3/13/23; 11:01 AM EST = -45; signal line is -32
3/13/23; 10:14 AM EST = -61; signal line is -31
3/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = -77; signal line is -29
3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = -61; signal line is -27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the turmoil from the Silicon Valley Bank failure continues. The bears are cruising with the algo number 34 points below the signal line. The crony capitalism officials are stepping-in to save the day, as usual, so S&P futures are up from +30 to +75 overnight.

The battle for market control is chips versus copper and the NYA Index. It appears a big rally may occur when the regular US trading session opens in about 4-1/2 hours. Copper is rallying and will be an immediate feather in the bulls cap if the futures remain positive.

Bears need weaker semiconductors to seal the deal for carnage ahead. Bears need SOX below 2903 which will create a big leg lower in the stock market. This morning appears rosy, however, so chips will probably rally stabilizing the stock market.

Bulls need stronger copper and NYA Index. Bulls need CPER above 24.42 and is only 2 pennies away. Considering the copper futures in rally mode right now up +0.5%, CPER will likely turn bullish. Bulls need NYA above 15060. This will be the big test today and a direct signal as to the strength of the relief rally.

If NYA overtakes 15060, the upside rally will gain momentum. This, however, is probably not enough to flip the model long. If this occurs, watch 15060 closely and if you see price move above for a while, then back below maybe for 10 minutes or a half-hour, then back above again, then below, then above. This jogging action likely tells you that the model is getting ready to flip long.

If CPER and NYA turn bullish, SPX 3955 can seal the deal for more rally time ahead. If SPX overtakes 3955, stocks are going to fly higher and the quant will likely flip long.

If NYA comes up to 15060 and hits its head on resistance and is spanked back down, and begins trending lower again, stocks will probably fall apart.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Thursday morning and the other on Friday morning. Watch NYA 15060 today. It will tell you what is going on.

3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = -61; signal line is -27
3/10/23; 3:59 PM EST = -61; signal line is -25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the week finishes with mayhem on Wall Street. Once NYA 15060 failed, the blood was flowing, then copper failed, so it was carnage. Turn out the lights, the party's over.

The bears are in control of stock market direction currently with the algo number 36 points below the signal line. Semiconductors, copper and the NYA Index will dictate the battle for directional control as the new week begins.

The chips are the last major parameter holding up the stock market by the skin of their teeth. Pay attention to chips, copper and the NYA if you want to know where the market is going.

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 3:59 PM EST = -61; signal line is -25
3/10/23; 3:58 PM EST = -45; signal line is -22
3/10/23; 3:47 PM EST = -61; signal line is -21
3/10/23; 2:11 PM EST = -45; signal line is -19
3/10/23; 1:37 PM EST = -61; signal line is -18
3/10/23; 12:01 PM EST = -45; signal line is -16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market circus plays on. The bears are comfortable with the algo number 29 points below the signal line. The key bull/bear battle is at NYA 15060. Remember all the talk about the negativity the utes would create? It's here.

Copper and the semiconductors are the only two major areas holding the stock market up so watch for weakness here. Stocks will recover and rally if NYA can move above 15060, stay above, and trend higher.

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 12:01 PM EST = -45; signal line is -16
3/10/23; 10:59 AM EST = -31; signal line is -14
3/10/23; 10:21 AM EST = -45; signal line is -12
3/10/23; 10:07 AM EST = -31; signal line is -10
3/10/23; 9:45 AM EST = -45; signal line is -9
3/10/23; 9:00 AM EST = -31; signal line is -8
3/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -31; signal line is -7
3/9/23; 3:15 PM EST = -47; signal line is -7
3/9/23; 2:55 PM EST = -31; signal line is -6
3/9/23; 1:52 PM EST = -17; signal line is -6
3/8/23; 9:38 AM EST = -3; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
3/7/23; 10:03 AM EST = -19; signal line is -6; go short 4024; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4024. The banks and copper flip bearish so you knew what would happen. The algo number is only 13 points below the signal line so the choppy slop may continue. The year thus far is choppy slop chewing up bulls and bears alike.

Pope Powell laid an egg yesterday tanking equities causing copper and the banks to give up the ghost. The battle today is the SPX index versus copper. It is a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit.

Bears need to pull SPX below 3962 to prove they got game. Stocks will tank. S&P futures are up +2, however, about one hour before the opening bell.

Bulls need CPER above 24.39 which represents a +0.7% gain in the copper futures. Let's see, copper futures are up +1.0%. Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner. The bulls want the stock market football back and they are trying to use copper to get it.

If CPER regains 24.39, which appears likely, the quant will be champing at the bit to go long again, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, but will probably want to see SPX 4050 to flip and commit a tall order for today. It will be important to see if CPER can maintain 24.39 today or if it fails. China is not going to spend the dough on its economy that was expected and Peru production is coming back on line after the riots so the red metal would be expected to become soggy going forward.

On the last trade, another choppy sloppy stutter-step, the gains are marginal and on the year the results remain flat. The benchmark SPX is up about +5% this year so the long stockholders are walking around with their chests puffed-out. Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters DOG remaining in the single ETF's for 2 more weeks when the whipsaw timer will expire. When will the chop suey end?

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/7/23; 10:03 AM EST = -19; signal line is -6; go short 4024; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.1%)
3/7/23; 9:39 AM EST = -3; signal line is -6
3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is -8
3/3/23; 11:29 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
3/2/23; 3:17 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12; go long 3978; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The markets idle to begin the week since Pope Powell speaks this morning. Keybot did not print any numbers yesterday.

The bulls are in charge of market direction with the algo number 21 points above the signal line.

The current game, aside from Powell's words this morning, is a battle between the banks and copper versus commodities. The banks were pumped on Friday creating the big rally in stocks.

Bears need XLF below 35.75 and/or CPER below 24.45 to create market negativity. This represents about a -0.8% drop in XLF and a -1.7% drop in copper futures. Let's take a look. Copper futures are down -1.4% so the bears are pushing but not there yet. XLF is unchanged in the pre-market sitting at 36.02. Bears likely need both the banks and copper to turn bearish to flip the model short.

Bulls need GTX above 3448 to prove they can take the stock market higher and it is knocking at the door at 3443. Commodities in general are flat to soggy to begin the day.

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is -8
3/3/23; 11:29 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
3/2/23; 3:17 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12; go long 3978; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bull side late yesterday afternoon at SPX 3978. The whipsaws are dizzying. Stocks are flip-flopping more than John Kerry (a political hack that comically said 'I voted to raise taxes before I voted against it'; huh?). The bulls overtake SPX 3962 a critical line in the sand currently so they are running the show.

It is a battle between the banks and SPX 3962. Bulls need XLF above 35.69 to prove they got game. This morning, XLF leaps to 35.69, hits its head on the resistance, and stumbles lower. There will likely be another test.

Bulls need XLF above 35.69. Bears need SPX below 3962. One of them will give way proving the direction ahead. Keybot the Quant will likely flip short again if 3962 is lost.

On the last trade, the losses were marginal. Everything remains relatively flat this year after a couple months of trading. Keybot exits PSQ and enters QQQ. 

The whipsaws are unprecedented for the algorithm and reflect the choppy price action in 2023 thus far. The utilities failure remains extremely ominous but for now the bulls are stretching their legs.

SPX 3962 or XLF 35.69 will tell you the answer going forward. XLF is at 35.62 and SPX is at 4009 as the Friday trade proceeds. The rally is meaningless unless the banks turn bullish (XLF above 35.69).

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/2/23; 3:17 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12; go long 3978; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.6%)
3/2/23; 2:05 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
3/1/23; 1:29 PM EST = -17; signal line is -13
3/1/23; 12:45 PM EST = -1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
3/1/23; 10:09 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12; go short 3955; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 3955.  The whipsaw markets continue. Whip it good. It is like riding a bucking bronco. The bulls pumped the banks to try and stabilize the stock market but the banks failed again yesterday creating overall stock market negativity.

Note that the last two flips both occurred at 10:09 AM EST. That is more wild rare stuff occurring with the algorithm. Obviously, you do not need hit over the head with a 2x4 (a piece of lumber) to know that you should watch 10:09 AM EST going forward.

UTIL GOES SUB 900 TO 891. IT'S OVER. TAKE THIS SIGNAL SERIOUSLY, FOLKS. GOING FORWARD, EXTREMELY BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE US STOCK MARKET.

What now? More choppy slop? Watch banks and volatility. Bulls need XLF above 35.69 pronto starting the Thursday session at 35.60. XLF is trading down at 35.56 in the pre-market.

Bears need VIX above 21.63 to prove they got game. Higher volatility would play off the ominous utilities and likely send stocks to Hades. VIX is trading at 20.91 right now. VIX above 21.63 will tell you that the stock market ugliness has begun.

Bulls win big with XLF above 35.69 and bears win big with VIX above 21.63. One of them will flinch and tell you the answer ahead. 

On the last whipsaw trade that ran a couple days, the algo program and actual trading each lose about a percent and a half. Humorously, the quant is going in the wrong direction. On the year thus far with 2 months already in the bag, the benchmark SPX is up +3%, the quant program is flat and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a percent; call it all flat. Keybot exits DIA and enters PSQ remaining in the single ETF's because of the ongoing chop suey.

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/1/23; 1:29 PM EST = -17; signal line is -13
3/1/23; 12:45 PM EST = -1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
3/1/23; 10:09 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12; go short 3955; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.1%)
3/1/23; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/28/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -1; signal line is -12
2/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -1; signal line is -12
2/28/23; 9:42 AM EST = -1; signal line is -12
2/27/23; 3:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 12:20 PM EST = -1; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:42 AM EST = -17; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:39 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:18 AM EST = +29; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:09 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10; go long 4017; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.5%)