STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 5899 at the opening bell. The bulls are asking around if anyone saw that bus that hit them? Wow, it was quite a bed-sh*tting right out of the gate. Volatility spiked creating negativity for the stock market and then banks, retail stocks and chips all fell down the rabbit hole. They are now small when they used to be tall. White Rabbit.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 28 points below the signal line. The Fed is trying to drive volatility lower as this is typed to help stocks stabilize. Watch the VIX 16.97 line in the sand. Also XLF 48.60, RTH 225.55 and SOX 5056. All four metrics are in the crap hole so any one turning bullish will stabilize the stock market and stop the downward slide. If all four remain negative, the stock market will continue to deteriorate.

The quant likely needs at least 2 of the 4 metrics above to turn bullish to place the quant in position to go long. Watch volatility, banks, retail stocks and chips that are controlling stock market direction currently.

On the last trade that went by at a blink of an eye, the quant program and actual trading each lose a percent. For the year, with tomorrow the last day of trading in 2024, the SPX is up about +24%. The also program is up about +10% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up about +17%. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ.

UTIL is teasing towards the 955 Armageddon trap-door for stocks now down to 977.

1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2024 =
12/30/24; 9:30 AM EST = -32; signal line is -4; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +23.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +16.7%)
12/30/24; 5:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 5:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 4:50 AM EST = +16; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 4:32 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 3:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is -3
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 12:08 PM EST = +0; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 10:10 AM EST = +16; signal line is -1
12/24/24; 10:17 AM EST = +30; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 3:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 1:41 PM EST = +0; signal line is -1; go long 5961; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market continues chopping sideways. Chop suey. Friday morning was a bear trap where volatility was jammed higher and the banks failed at munch time sending stocks lower but thwack, banks were then pumped joyously higher and the Fed put its jackboot on the throat of volatility, so the US stock market recovered without any downside damage.

It is obvious that volatility and banks are the two key drivers of stock market direction currently. VIX 16.97 and XLF 48.60 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand. As vol and banks go, so goes the stock market. If both remain in the bull camp, stocks will remain buoyant.

Both parameters would likely need to flip into the bear camp to position the quant to want to go short. Thus, if bullish, you want to keep the VIX low and heading lower while also pumping banks higher. If bearish, you are stabbing banks and trying to push them down the cellar stairs while boosting the VIX higher. One side or the other will flinch and tell you the path forward for stocks.

If the bearish road is ahead, watch UTIL 952. If it fails, a trap-door opens for the US stock market and it will go into a crash profile. Have fun, everyone. The bears would benefit from weaker chips, retail stocks and commodities, but banks and volatility are the current highest priority for the quant.

Tuesday is New Year's Eve and the last day of trading for 2024. The first day of trading for 2025 is Thursday. The Keybot the Quant algorithm and robot will be rezeroed on Wednesday, New Year's Day, and start afresh for 2025. Keybot the Quant will log another successful year and has never had a down year.

VIX 16.97 (now at 15.95 creating bullishness) and XLF 48.60 (now at 48.75, goosed in the final minutes on Friday, creating bullishness) are all you need to watch to know where the stock market is headed. The bulls are comfortable and in charge with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. If either VIX or XLF turn bearish, the caution flag will be out and if both turn negative, the imminent turn to the downside will be in play. For now, the stock market party continues into the New Year. Come Dancing.

1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 12:08 PM EST = +0; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 10:10 AM EST = +16; signal line is -1
12/24/24; 10:17 AM EST = +30; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long after a big up day on Christmas Eve. The bulls boosted the banks creating more upside fuel for the stock market. The Fed steps on the neck of volatility and stocks go to the moon. The wealthy class dances with glee. The bulls are in control of stock market direction currently with the algo number 31 points above the signal line. 

In the banks versus volatility contest, the banks are clearly the winner. XLF leaps to 48.99 while VIX collapses to at 14-handle. Bears have no hope unless XLF drops below 48.60 and/or VIX moves above 16.90. Bulls cannot expect anymore significant upside in the stock market from here unless they boost utilities and copper.

Watch the XLF 48.60 bull/bear line in the sand and also the direction of utes and copper. That will tell you everything you need to know. Merry Christmas. Have a Holly Jolly Christmas. Play music.

12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/24/24; 10:17 AM EST = +30; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 3:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp yesterday afternoon at SPX 5961 after another crazy whipsaw session. Chips, retail stocks, commodities and volatility jump into the bull camp from munch time forward yesterday sending stocks strongly higher. The algo was at -46 in the morning and then only 3-1/2 hours later flipped long now at +14 only 15 points above the signal line.

Volatility flipped to the bull camp in the final minutes yesterday so obviously, the focus should be on the VIX 16.98 line in the sand. VIX is at 16.69 in the early morning hours on the East Coast so the bulls are dancing with S&P futures positive. Bears got nothing unless and until they push the VIX back above 17.

The bulls need higher utilities, banks and copper to create more upside joy. Utes and copper are preferring the bear bed for now. Watch the XLF 48.60 line in the sand that the robot is tracking. XLF is in the bear camp at 48.42 only 18 cents away from creating bull market rocket fuel.

Thus, bulls win today and stocks continue higher if XLF moves above 48.60. Bears win today if the VIX moves above 16.98. Banks versus volatility. Two enter the cage match but only one will exit.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program gains about a percent but the actual trading loses a percent. This happens once in a while where the direction was correct, to the downside, but the SH ETF was shunned due to the excessive bullishness in play. For the year, with only 5 trading days remaining, the SPX benchmark index is up +25% a repeat of the prior year. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +18% this year thus far. The quant is underperforming the benchmark index by 7 percentage points but no one is complaining. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY.

Merry Christmas. It is time to Jingle Bell Rock. The old days. The VIX is at 16.66, trip 6's, in the bull camp, and XLF is trading up 2 pennies to 48.44 in the pre-market, in the bear camp. The bears need 32 cents higher in vol (VIX) while the bulls need 16 cents higher in the banks (XLF). One of them will flinch. 

12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/24; 3:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 1:41 PM EST = +0; signal line is -1; go long 5961; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.7%)
12/23/24; 12:10 PM EST = -14; signal line is +0
12/23/24; 11:21 AM EST = -30; signal line is +2
12/23/24; 10:14 AM EST = -46; signal line is +3
12/23/24; 10:07 AM EST = -30; signal line is +6
12/23/24; 10:01 AM EST = -16; signal line is +8
12/23/24; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +10
12/23/24; 9:39 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +14
12/20/24; 11:15 AM EST = -14; signal line is +16
12/20/24; 11:14 AM EST = -30; signal line is +18
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST = -44; signal line is +20
12/20/24; 9:36 AM EST = -44; signal line is +23
12/19/24; 10:40 AM EST = -28; signal line is +25
12/18/24; 3:16 PM EST = -14; signal line is +27
12/18/24; 2:52 PM EST = +2; signal line is +28
12/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +29; go short 6001; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +18.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls try to fight back on Friday. The bears are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 28 points below the signal line. Retail stocks and commodities turned bullish on Friday creating the upside joy in the stock market.

Thus, bears need retail stocks and commodities to collapse back into the bear camp if they want to create market mayhem. Armageddon will be on tap if UTIL loses 950.

Bears need RTH below 227 and/or GTX below 3567. Both can easily flip bearish again which would wipe-out the entire impetus (a ten-dollar college word) for stocks rallying on Friday. Watch Scamazon. If RTH and GTX turn bearish again, and then UTIL loses 950, Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight.

Bulls want to build on Friday's gains and prove they got game and this will be apparent if they do not let RTH or GTX fall. Bulls need lower volatility, and higher banks and chips. These three metrics are causing the weakness in the US stock market currently (along with utes).

Bulls need VIX below 17.10 (watch this overnight), XLF above 48.85 and/or SOX above 5052. Bulls probably need at least 2 of the 3 to flip bullish to put the quant in position to flip long. If one parameter flips long, consider the caution flag out, if two turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if all three turn bullish, the bulls will be throwing confetti and singing songs as the SPX explodes higher.

Thus, for this holiday shortened Christmas week ahead, if you are bullish you are rooting for a collapse in volatility, and for banks and semiconductors to rally to the moon, and all is fine for a rosy finish to the year with a Santa Claus rally.

If you are bearish, you are rooting for a collapse in retail stocks and commodities so you want Scamazon, Walfart, and Costalotco to fail. If  the retail stocks and commodities weaken, the blood will flow on Wall Street for Christmas, and Santa will be beat-up in the alley way behind the dumpster, fighting for his life, that will be determined by UTIL 950.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week tomorrow morning. Markets are of course closed on Wednesday for Christmas. The stock market closes early at 1 PM EST on Tuesday for Christmas Eve. Bulls and bears are duking it out Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree with Brenda Lee.

12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +14
12/20/24; 11:15 AM EST = -14; signal line is +16
12/20/24; 11:14 AM EST = -30; signal line is +18
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST = -44; signal line is +20
12/20/24; 9:36 AM EST = -44; signal line is +23
12/19/24; 10:40 AM EST = -28; signal line is +25
12/18/24; 3:16 PM EST = -14; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild and crazy day yesterday. Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High that tell everyone how to trade but no one liked the inscription. A big selloff occurs in the stock market.

The quant flipped short last Monday, last week, and kept teasing a flip to the long side over the last week. The bears held the bulls at bay until yesterday morning when the internal parameters of the quant latched and the flip to the long side occurs. That did not last long; only about 4 hours. Banks failed after the Fed statement was released that cut by a quarter-point but also reduced the projected rate cuts for 2025 (that fuel the stock market higher). Volatility took off vertically like a rocket sinking the stock market and then semiconductors threw in the towel creating the bloodbath.

The robot flips back to the short side with a rare same-day whipsaw (this has occurred for the quant probably less than 10 times in the last 16 years). The bears are in charge with the algo number a huge 41 points below the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities, commodities, and retail stocks to create more carnage. Bulls need higher banks and chips, and lower volatility, to stop the bloodbath.

Whittling it down to give you something to watch, it is a battle between chips and retail stocks. If the bulls can push SOX above 5070, they can stall the selling and create stabilization in the stock market, but MU sh*t the bed with earnings. Bears need RTH below 226.90 now less than a dollar away to guarantee more stock market weakness.

On the short trade that ran for 8 trading days from last Monday, everything was flat. On the last long trade that ran for a big 4 hours, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. For the year thus far, with less than 2 weeks of trading remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a huge +26% with back-to-back big up years. The quant program is up +10% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +19% lagging the benchmark by 7 percentage-points. On the flip to the bull side, Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO. On the whipsaw back to the short side, Keybot exited SSO and entered SH. The whipsaw occurs so the robot drops down into single ETF's for the next 30 days. The stock market may become choppy and the use of non-leveraged ETF's reduces risk until the choppiness passes.

Bears win with RTH below 226.90, GTX below 3567 and/or UTIL below 965. If utilities fail, the US stock market will likely go into a crash profile. Bulls can stop the selling with SOX above 5070 and/or XLF above 48.83. Bulls are on an island of hopeless despair indefinitely unless they can push the VIX back below 17.15.

12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/24; 3:16 PM EST = -14; signal line is +27
12/18/24; 2:52 PM EST = +2; signal line is +28
12/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +29; go short 6001; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +18.7%)
12/19/24; 2:16 PM EST = +16; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
12/18/24; 10:34 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30; go long 6062; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +27.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.7%)
12/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
12/17/24; 12:44 PM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
12/17/24; 9:57 AM EST = +18; signal line is +31
12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 1:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 1:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 11:22 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 10:59 AM EST = +16; signal line is +30
12/10/24; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/10/24; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/9/24; 3:49 PM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 6052; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +26.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market bounces to and fro. Chips jump into the bull camp on Friday creating market lift but by the end of the session, the SPX comes down to Earth sitting at 6051 where the quant went short on Monday. The week was a whole lot of nothing.

The robot identifies chips, copper and banks as controlling stock market direction currently.  Chips and banks are bullish creating market lift while copper is negative creating bearishness.

The bears need SOX below 5053 (that is about a -1.9% drop) and/or XLF below 48.80 (that is about a -1.5% drop) to create stock market negativity.

Keybot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number one measly point above the signal line. If the SPX runs about 28 points higher above 6079 on Monday, the quant will likely flip long. Bulls need CPER above 26.51 (that is about a +1.5% gain in copper futures) to create stock market positivity and a flip to the long side will be very likely.

Utilities failed last week that is a negative omen for the stock market going forward. UTIL needs to print above 1029 this week but it begins down at 1004. In addition, for next week, UTIL must be above 1054 to create stock market positivity a formidable task. The robot tracks two key utility metrics; the closing price from 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA now at 949.

Watch the utilities closely. If UTIL continues to deteriorate lower, and loses the 949 level, be very afraid since it is likely that the US stock market will crash (-10%, or -20%, or -30% or a lot more in quick order). If the stock market sells off but UTIL does not lose 949, it will be a run-of-the-mill pullback of -3% to -5% and stocks will recover.

Commodities are also still in play. Bears need GTX below 3563 to create market mayhem. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on hump day morning and the other on Friday morning.

Bulls can take control of stocks if SPX floats above 6079 and the upside will accelerate if CPER runs above 26.51 heading higher. Bears will maintain control of the stock market if SPX remains below 6079 and if copper remains negative. Bears will begin creating carnage if SOX loses 5053 or if XLF loses 48.80; bigtime carnage if both fail.

Very simply, weak copper futures overnight, and weakness in the chips and banks will be heaven for the bears. Bulls will throw confetti and celebrate a likely flip back to the long side if S&P futures are positive with copper rallying along with chips and banks. Choose your Poison but remember that Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/24; 9:00 AM EST =
12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 1:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number one point above the signal line. The crazy sawtooth pattern continues. If the SPX floats higher, moving up through the 6093-6110 range, a level somewhere in there, the robot will not know until it sees it, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Hence, the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The bulls pumped copper and commodities creating stock market joy. The bears keep the chips and utes in their camp creating a heavy weight upon the stock market. Thus, bears need to bash copper and commodities if they want to continue the move lower while bulls must exalt chips and utes to plot the course higher for stocks. Bulls pushed SOX higher into the closing bell but fell short of what they need.

As stated, bulls need SPX above 6093 moving higher for the quant to flip long. Bulls will receive bigtime juice from SOX 5045 and UTIL 1021. SOX begins tomorrow at 5028 a breath away from the bull camp and stock market ecstasy. If SOX moves above 5045, stocks will explode higher. If SOX cannot move above 5045, any stock market rally will fade, like last evening's nightmares, and stocks will reverse to the downside.

UTIL is down to 1004 a big drop and the talking heads on television do not even mention the pullback in utilities over the last couple weeks. It is a very bad omen going forward.

Bears need CPER below 26.52 and GTX below 3562 to create market mayhem. The lying communists (CCP) promise to provide stimulus for the umpteenth time creating lift in copper and commodities. CPER is at 26.58 so it is a game of pennies. As copper goes, and the chips above, so goes the stock market. GTX pops to 3616 so it will take work by the bears to bring the commodes back down.

So choose your poison. She is ready to flip long at SPX 6093 and higher and will receive rocket fuel with SOX 5045 and/or UTIL 1021. The bears will maintain control and create carnage with CPER below 26.52 and/or GTX below 3562. Easy peasy.

Boiling it down as far as possible, like searching for Einstein's simple one-inch equation that explains the entire universe, the stock market is simply chips versus copper. That is it.

Bulls will catapult to victory, stampeding the bears, with SOX 5045 (any positivity in semiconductors) while bears will rejoice and celebrate, with bull blood on their claws, with CPER 26.52 (any negativity in copper).

Tom Waits just turned 75 years young. The poet is always riding that Downtown Train along with every other musician that covers his great song.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/24; 1:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 1:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 11:22 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 10:59 AM EST = +16; signal line is +30
12/10/24; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/10/24; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/9/24; 3:49 PM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 6052; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +26.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a few minutes before the end of today's trading session at SPX 6052. Earlier in the day, copper, commodities and chips create upside excitement but then the chips, commodities and utilities failed causing the slide in the stock market and flip to the short side. The algo number is only 13 points below the signal line so the bears need more separation to prove they got what it takes to extend losses.

Bears need weaker copper. Bears need CPER below 26.52, only pennies away, and that will open the floodgates for downside selling in the stock market. Bulls must keep copper futures positive by all means necessary. Negative copper futures means trouble ahead. As copper goes, so goes the stock market.

The bulls have three parameters that can put them back into the top spot right away. Utes failed late in the day so they would be first to reverse. Commodities and chips are also in the bear camp. Bulls need UTIL above 1020.86, which is only a buck-fifty away, or SOX above 5045, which is only 27 points away, and/or GTX above 3561 only 4 points away. These 3 parameters are dancing on the head of a pin, along with copper, and dictating the direction of the US stock market.

If you are bullish, you need stronger utilities, semiconductors and commodities. If you are bearish, you need any amount of red in the copper futures. The bears can easily reverse the quant since the 3 metrics above are only marginally bearish, so it will be interesting to see how the week progresses.

On the last trade, that ran for 2-1/2 weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains about +3%. For the year, with only about 3 weeks remaining, the SPX is up a huge +27%. Oh my. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +11% and the actual trading has gained +21% this year but still lagging the benchmark by 6 percentage-points. No one is complaining about a +21% gain, however. Perhaps there are some surprises still ahead for 2024? Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/24; 3:49 PM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 6052; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +26.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.8%)
12/9/24; 1:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +31
12/9/24; 11:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +31
12/9/24; 9:47 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
12/9/24; 9:45 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29
12/9/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 12:10 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 11:16 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 10:06 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/5/24; 1:26 PM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/4/24; 11:13 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
12/3/24; 11:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
12/3/24; 11:33 AM EST = +48; signal line is +26
12/3/24; 10:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
12/3/24; 10:03 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 2:59 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/2/24; 2:14 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 11:34 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 11:48 AM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26
11/26/24; 12:03 PM EST = +18; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
11/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
11/25/24; 12:43 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 12:09 PM EST = +32; signal line is +30
11/25/24; 12:02 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/25/24; 11:20 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
11/24/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/22/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/21/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26; go long 5950; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +24.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market bounces along like a ping-pong ball. The robot keeps teasing a turn to the short side but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move and then the bulls win the day again keeping the bears at bay. The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line.

On Friday, 12/6/24, the SPX prints a new all-time historic high at 6099.97 and new all-time closing high at 6090.27. It stopped 3 pennies short of 6100.

The stock market is moving because of bearish copper and commodities, and bullish chips and utilities. Nothing else matters. For the bulls to continue the upside party of new record highs, higher copper and commodities are needed. The bulls need CPER above 26.56 and/or GTX above 3562. Watch copper futures overnight since a +1.6% rally is needed in the red metal to open the door to an end of year rally for stocks. Bulls got nothing if they cannot rally copper and commodities.

The bears need weaker semiconductors and utes to create stock market negativity. Bears need SOX below 5046 and/or UTIL below 1020.86. SOX begins the week at 5061 so it is a coin-flip as to which way she will go. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 6080, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Consider the imminent turn to be in play if chips or utes turn negative.

Utilities need further discussion. They were talked about a few posts back maybe a couple weeks or so. The bulls have managed to keep utilities buoyant which keeps the stock market buoyant. The AI hype has sent utes to the moon due to the obscene power requirements required to answer a question incorrectly. UTIL begins the week at 1036 only 15 ticks from mayhem at the 1021 line in the sand.

For the following week of 12/16/24, the 1021 will no longer matter and it will be replaced with 1029. Then, for the week of 12/23/24, Christmas week, the 1029 does not matter and it will be replaced with 1054. What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? It means stocks are in trouble now if UTIL loses 1021. If utes hang on this week above 1021, watch the closing number at 4 PM EST Friday since it will need to be above 1029 for the week of 12/16/24. Then, price has to be above 1054 during Christmas week, and UTIL is at 1036 now which would spell trouble ahead for US stocks.

Utilities are important because if they roll over lower now and trend lower, and then the US stock market drops and begins trending lower, it tells you that the pullback is going to be significant (-10%, -20% and maybe more) and not a run of the mill pullback (-3% to -5%). If utes remain elevated, especially above 1060 for the next 3 weeks, Santa Claus will come to town and the bulls will be partying All Night Long.

Focus on copper and chips. Watch SOX 5046. As chips go, so goes the stock market.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 12:10 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 11:16 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 10:06 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/5/24; 1:26 PM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/4/24; 11:13 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
12/3/24; 11:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
12/3/24; 11:33 AM EST = +48; signal line is +26
12/3/24; 10:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
12/3/24; 10:03 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 2:59 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/2/24; 2:14 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 11:34 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The holiday light volume creates the push and pull with the SPX printing a new all-time high at 6044. The algo number is 6 points below the signal line so the quant wants to be short but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move.

If the SPX moves steadily lower to 6004, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. That is a -28 drop in S&P futures. If the SPX gaps lower on Monday morning, the quant will likely not bite right away and instead wait about 90 minutes before flipping short, if that is the chosen direction.

Commodities, chips and copper, the three c's, create the negativity in the stock market despite the new all-time highs. Since the bulls have their chests puffed-out and are partying like its 1999, they need GTX above 3567 and/or SOX above 5050 to prove that higher is the direction ahead for stocks. At least 1 of the 2 must turn bullish to justify the highs in the S&P 500. If the 2 metrics remain bearish, the stock market upside will stall and reverse to the downside.

In addition to the SPX moving below 6004, the quant will need higher volatility to create sustainable broad market selling.

12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST =
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 11:48 AM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26
11/26/24; 12:03 PM EST = +18; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
11/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
11/25/24; 12:43 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 12:09 PM EST = +32; signal line is +30
11/25/24; 12:02 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/25/24; 11:20 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
11/24/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/22/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/21/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26; go long 5950; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +24.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.5%)