STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a few minutes before the end of today's trading session at SPX 6052. Earlier in the day, copper, commodities and chips create upside excitement but then the chips, commodities and utilities failed causing the slide in the stock market and flip to the short side. The algo number is only 13 points below the signal line so the bears need more separation to prove they got what it takes to extend losses.

Bears need weaker copper. Bears need CPER below 26.52, only pennies away, and that will open the floodgates for downside selling in the stock market. Bulls must keep copper futures positive by all means necessary. Negative copper futures means trouble ahead. As copper goes, so goes the stock market.

The bulls have three parameters that can put them back into the top spot right away. Utes failed late in the day so they would be first to reverse. Commodities and chips are also in the bear camp. Bulls need UTIL above 1020.86, which is only a buck-fifty away, or SOX above 5045, which is only 27 points away, and/or GTX above 3561 only 4 points away. These 3 parameters are dancing on the head of a pin, along with copper, and dictating the direction of the US stock market.

If you are bullish, you need stronger utilities, semiconductors and commodities. If you are bearish, you need any amount of red in the copper futures. The bears can easily reverse the quant since the 3 metrics above are only marginally bearish, so it will be interesting to see how the week progresses.

On the last trade, that ran for 2-1/2 weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains about +3%. For the year, with only about 3 weeks remaining, the SPX is up a huge +27%. Oh my. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +11% and the actual trading has gained +21% this year but still lagging the benchmark by 6 percentage-points. No one is complaining about a +21% gain, however. Perhaps there are some surprises still ahead for 2024? Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/24; 3:49 PM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 6052; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +26.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.8%)
12/9/24; 1:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +31
12/9/24; 11:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +31
12/9/24; 9:47 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
12/9/24; 9:45 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29
12/9/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 12:10 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 11:16 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 10:06 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/5/24; 1:26 PM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/4/24; 11:13 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
12/3/24; 11:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
12/3/24; 11:33 AM EST = +48; signal line is +26
12/3/24; 10:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
12/3/24; 10:03 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 2:59 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/2/24; 2:14 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 11:34 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 11:48 AM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26
11/26/24; 12:03 PM EST = +18; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
11/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
11/25/24; 12:43 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 12:09 PM EST = +32; signal line is +30
11/25/24; 12:02 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/25/24; 11:20 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
11/24/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/22/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/21/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26; go long 5950; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +24.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.5%)