STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market bounces to and fro. Chips jump into the bull camp on Friday creating market lift but by the end of the session, the SPX comes down to Earth sitting at 6051 where the quant went short on Monday. The week was a whole lot of nothing.

The robot identifies chips, copper and banks as controlling stock market direction currently.  Chips and banks are bullish creating market lift while copper is negative creating bearishness.

The bears need SOX below 5053 (that is about a -1.9% drop) and/or XLF below 48.80 (that is about a -1.5% drop) to create stock market negativity.

Keybot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number one measly point above the signal line. If the SPX runs about 28 points higher above 6079 on Monday, the quant will likely flip long. Bulls need CPER above 26.51 (that is about a +1.5% gain in copper futures) to create stock market positivity and a flip to the long side will be very likely.

Utilities failed last week that is a negative omen for the stock market going forward. UTIL needs to print above 1029 this week but it begins down at 1004. In addition, for next week, UTIL must be above 1054 to create stock market positivity a formidable task. The robot tracks two key utility metrics; the closing price from 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA now at 949.

Watch the utilities closely. If UTIL continues to deteriorate lower, and loses the 949 level, be very afraid since it is likely that the US stock market will crash (-10%, or -20%, or -30% or a lot more in quick order). If the stock market sells off but UTIL does not lose 949, it will be a run-of-the-mill pullback of -3% to -5% and stocks will recover.

Commodities are also still in play. Bears need GTX below 3563 to create market mayhem. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on hump day morning and the other on Friday morning.

Bulls can take control of stocks if SPX floats above 6079 and the upside will accelerate if CPER runs above 26.51 heading higher. Bears will maintain control of the stock market if SPX remains below 6079 and if copper remains negative. Bears will begin creating carnage if SOX loses 5053 or if XLF loses 48.80; bigtime carnage if both fail.

Very simply, weak copper futures overnight, and weakness in the chips and banks will be heaven for the bears. Bulls will throw confetti and celebrate a likely flip back to the long side if S&P futures are positive with copper rallying along with chips and banks. Choose your Poison but remember that Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/24; 9:00 AM EST =
12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 1:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short