STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market bounces along like a ping-pong ball. The robot keeps teasing a turn to the short side but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move and then the bulls win the day again keeping the bears at bay. The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line.

On Friday, 12/6/24, the SPX prints a new all-time historic high at 6099.97 and new all-time closing high at 6090.27. It stopped 3 pennies short of 6100.

The stock market is moving because of bearish copper and commodities, and bullish chips and utilities. Nothing else matters. For the bulls to continue the upside party of new record highs, higher copper and commodities are needed. The bulls need CPER above 26.56 and/or GTX above 3562. Watch copper futures overnight since a +1.6% rally is needed in the red metal to open the door to an end of year rally for stocks. Bulls got nothing if they cannot rally copper and commodities.

The bears need weaker semiconductors and utes to create stock market negativity. Bears need SOX below 5046 and/or UTIL below 1020.86. SOX begins the week at 5061 so it is a coin-flip as to which way she will go. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 6080, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Consider the imminent turn to be in play if chips or utes turn negative.

Utilities need further discussion. They were talked about a few posts back maybe a couple weeks or so. The bulls have managed to keep utilities buoyant which keeps the stock market buoyant. The AI hype has sent utes to the moon due to the obscene power requirements required to answer a question incorrectly. UTIL begins the week at 1036 only 15 ticks from mayhem at the 1021 line in the sand.

For the following week of 12/16/24, the 1021 will no longer matter and it will be replaced with 1029. Then, for the week of 12/23/24, Christmas week, the 1029 does not matter and it will be replaced with 1054. What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? It means stocks are in trouble now if UTIL loses 1021. If utes hang on this week above 1021, watch the closing number at 4 PM EST Friday since it will need to be above 1029 for the week of 12/16/24. Then, price has to be above 1054 during Christmas week, and UTIL is at 1036 now which would spell trouble ahead for US stocks.

Utilities are important because if they roll over lower now and trend lower, and then the US stock market drops and begins trending lower, it tells you that the pullback is going to be significant (-10%, -20% and maybe more) and not a run of the mill pullback (-3% to -5%). If utes remain elevated, especially above 1060 for the next 3 weeks, Santa Claus will come to town and the bulls will be partying All Night Long.

Focus on copper and chips. Watch SOX 5046. As chips go, so goes the stock market.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 12:10 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 11:16 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 10:06 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/5/24; 1:26 PM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/4/24; 11:13 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
12/3/24; 11:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
12/3/24; 11:33 AM EST = +48; signal line is +26
12/3/24; 10:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
12/3/24; 10:03 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 2:59 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/2/24; 2:14 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 11:34 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long