STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market continues chopping sideways. Chop suey. Friday morning was a bear trap where volatility was jammed higher and the banks failed at munch time sending stocks lower but thwack, banks were then pumped joyously higher and the Fed put its jackboot on the throat of volatility, so the US stock market recovered without any downside damage.

It is obvious that volatility and banks are the two key drivers of stock market direction currently. VIX 16.97 and XLF 48.60 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand. As vol and banks go, so goes the stock market. If both remain in the bull camp, stocks will remain buoyant.

Both parameters would likely need to flip into the bear camp to position the quant to want to go short. Thus, if bullish, you want to keep the VIX low and heading lower while also pumping banks higher. If bearish, you are stabbing banks and trying to push them down the cellar stairs while boosting the VIX higher. One side or the other will flinch and tell you the path forward for stocks.

If the bearish road is ahead, watch UTIL 952. If it fails, a trap-door opens for the US stock market and it will go into a crash profile. Have fun, everyone. The bears would benefit from weaker chips, retail stocks and commodities, but banks and volatility are the current highest priority for the quant.

Tuesday is New Year's Eve and the last day of trading for 2024. The first day of trading for 2025 is Thursday. The Keybot the Quant algorithm and robot will be rezeroed on Wednesday, New Year's Day, and start afresh for 2025. Keybot the Quant will log another successful year and has never had a down year.

VIX 16.97 (now at 15.95 creating bullishness) and XLF 48.60 (now at 48.75, goosed in the final minutes on Friday, creating bullishness) are all you need to watch to know where the stock market is headed. The bulls are comfortable and in charge with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. If either VIX or XLF turn bearish, the caution flag will be out and if both turn negative, the imminent turn to the downside will be in play. For now, the stock market party continues into the New Year. Come Dancing.

1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 12:08 PM EST = +0; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 10:10 AM EST = +16; signal line is -1
12/24/24; 10:17 AM EST = +30; signal line is -1