STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT; KEYBOT THE QUANT ACTUAL TRADING GAINS +45% IN 2022 AS US STOCK MARKET LOSES -19%

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side yesterday, the last day of trading in 2022, at SPX 3803, and is now champing at the bit to go long again. If you blink it will probably change again. It is a whipsaw move after the quant flipped long on Thursday.

To begin 2023, the algo number is 9 points above the signal line so Keybot wants to flip long but cannot since the internal parameters will not fully latch as yet. If the SPX moves higher as trading begins on Tuesday, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

The SPX, the S&P 500, which is the United States stock market, folds like a cheap suit in 2022 losing -20.2% until the last hour of trading the index recovers +0.8% intraday to finish the year down -19.4%. Some jackasses like to use the silly -20% metric as the demarcation line for a bear market. Nonetheless, the market makers were not going to let 2022 close out that way so they pushed the jello around the plate on these days of thin trading to print the -19% number instead.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +30% in 2022 outperforming the benchmark SPX by 50 percentage points. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant gains a huge +45% in 2022 outperforming the US stock market by a humungous 65 percentage points. Keybot leaves the Wall Street hedge funds in the dust simply using 1's and 0's.

The flip to the short side yesterday after going long Thursday is a whipsaw so the quant is in the single 1x ETF mode until February to reduce risk in the chop-suey environment.

UTIL lost the 975 level a major bearish indication so watch this as soon as the opening bell rings on Tuesday. If UTIL remains below 975, the trap-door for stocks remains open and conditions will remain negative. If UTIL rises above 975, then 978.52, stocks will run strongly higher and this move to the upside likely has legs. Which outcome will occur?

If UTIL tags 975 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long immediately. 

Bears need XLF below 34.08 and NYA below 15111 to create stock market negativity and increased selling pressure.

If the SPX floats higher at the opening bell, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long but a gap-up move is not desired since that may delay the move to the long side by about 90 minutes. If UTIL moves above 975.30, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long immediately. If UTIL then moves above 978.52, stocks are going to rock and roll higher.

Bears simply need to keep the S&P futures negative on Tuesday morning, keep utes negative and then cut banks and the NYA index off at the knees. This would create blood and carnage on Wall Street.

Keybot the Quant is in SH the 1x ETF that moves higher if the SPX moves lower. The robot will remain in the 1x ETF's until February when the whipsaw timer expires. Keybot senses choppy slop price action ahead so it drops down into the single ETF trading vehicles to reduce risk.

Keybot the Quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Keybot is on a roll for many years. Will the big effortless money-making party continue? It should since the robot was designed in a way that others cannot repeat its methods. Keybot does not play well with others. Let the 2023 festivities begin.

1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/1/23; Begin 2023 Data = -16; signal line is -25; go short 3840; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2023 on the Short Side from SPX 3840

All Data 0%. Begin 2023

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

START 2023 PROGRAM

Begin Printing

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 12/31/22; 8:37 AM EST

START 2023 PROGRAM

Copyright Enforced. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. Keybot the Quant. The Keystone Speculator. K E Stone. All Rights Reserved.

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

END OF 2022 RESULTS:

The SPX (S&P 500) Benchmark Index Loses -19.4% in 2022

(SPX Started at 4766 and Ended at 3840 Collapsing 926 Points Preventing a -20.2% Loss for the Year During the Final Hour of Trading in 2022)

Keybot the Quant Algorithm (Computer Program Only) During 2022: +29.8%

KEYBOT THE QUANT ACTUAL TRADING RETURN FOR 2022 INCLUDING ALL COMMISSIONS, COSTS AND FEES: +44.5%

Keybot the Quant has never printed a losing year

Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish (long) position and a bearish (short) position seeking the smoothest path through the trading year using the S&P 500 (SPX; the US stock market) as the benchmark comparison index

Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2022: 37

 

1/1/2022	4766	Go Long	6:11 AM	SPY	474.96
1/10/2022	4630	Sell Long	9:36 AM	SPY	467.42
1/10/2022	4630	Go Short	9:36 AM	SH	13.83
1/11/2022	4679	Cover Short	11:28 AM	SH	13.86
1/11/2022	4679	Go Long	11:28 AM	DIA	360.15
1/13/2022	4660	Sell Long	3:50 PM	DIA	360.96
1/13/2022	4660	Go Short	3:50 PM	DOG	31.86
2/1/2022	4533	Cover Short	3:22 PM	DOG	32.50
2/1/2022	4533	Go Long	3:22 PM	QQQ	363.93
2/10/2022	4542	Sell Long	9:36 AM	QQQ	361.35
2/10/2022	4542	Go Short	9:36 AM	SDS	38.32
2/15/2022	4461	Cover Short	9:43 AM	SDS	39.61
2/15/2022	4461	Go Long	9:43 AM	SSO	63.86
2/17/2022	4420	Sell Long	9:55 AM	SSO	62.69
2/17/2022	4420	Go Short	9:55 AM	SDS	40.30
2/25/2022	4332	Cover Short	10:45 AM	SDS	41.80
2/25/2022	4332	Go Long	10:45 AM	QLD	64.81
3/14/2022	4185	Sell Long	12:56 PM	QLD	56.08
3/14/2022	4185	Go Short	12:56 PM	SDS	44.29
3/16/2022	4314	Cover Short	9:36 AM	SDS	41.63
3/16/2022	4314	Go Long	9:36 AM	SPY	430.81
3/31/2022	4540	Sell Long	3:59 PM	SPY	458.76
3/31/2022	4540	Go Short	3:59 PM	SH	13.87
4/19/2022	4420	Cover Short	9:54 AM	SH	14.43
4/19/2022	4420	Go Long	9:54 AM	SSO	62.31
4/21/2022	4453	Sell Long	12:13 PM	SSO	63.25
4/21/2022	4453	Go Short	12:13 PM	SDS	38.60
5/27/2022	4127	Cover Short	11:43 AM	SDS	43.41
5/27/2022	4127	Go Long	11:43 AM	SSO	53.77
6/1/2022	4103	Sell Long	10:39 AM	SSO	53.13
6/1/2022	4103	Go Short	10:39 AM	SDS	43.85
6/2/2022	4102	Cover Short	10:17 AM	SDS	43.90
6/2/2022	4102	Go Long	10:17 AM	SPY	409.73
6/9/2022	4078	Sell Long	2:41 PM	SPY	407.56
6/9/2022	4078	Go Short	2:41 PM	SH	15.41
7/1/2022	3822	Cover Short	3:33 PM	SH	16.34
7/1/2022	3822	Go Long	3:33 PM	DIA	310.70
7/5/2022	3760	Sell Long	9:36 AM	DIA	305.82
7/5/2022	3760	Go Short	9:36 AM	SH	16.60
7/6/2022	3856	Cover Short	3:12 PM	SH	16.19
7/6/2022	3856	Go Long	3:12 PM	QQQ	289.96
7/12/2022	3831	Sell Long	3:02PM	QQQ	287.05
7/12/2022	3831	Go Short	3:02PM	DOG	35.87
7/15/2022	3855	Cover Short	10:33 AM	DOG	35.69
7/15/2022	3855	Go Long	10:33 AM	SPY	384.07
7/26/2022	3926	Sell Long	11:28 AM	SPY	391.65
7/26/2022	3926	Go Short	11:28 AM	RWM	24.53
7/27/2022	3959	Cover Short	9:36 AM	RWM	24.37
7/27/2022	3959	Go Long	9:36 AM	SPY	391.47
8/26/2022	4064	Sell Long	3:56 PM	SPY	404.89
8/26/2022	4064	Go Short	3:56 PM	SDS	43.00
9/7/2022	3944	Cover Short	11:25 AM	SDS	45.60
9/7/2022	3944	Go Long	11:25 AM	SSO	48.38
9/13/2022	3987	Sell Long	10:56 AM	SSO	49.34
9/13/2022	3987	Go Short	10:56 AM	SDS	44.43
10/13/2022	3620	Cover Short	11:20 AM	SDS	53.50
10/13/2022	3620	Go Long	11:20 AM	SSO	40.36
10/20/2022	3661	Sell Long	2:12 PM	SSO	41.18
10/20/2022	3661	Go Short	2:12 PM	SDS	51.68
10/21/2022	3742	Cover Short	2:09 PM	SDS	49.42
10/21/2022	3742	Go Long	2:09 PM	SPY	373.25
11/1/2022	3854	Sell Long	10:47 AM	SPY	382.85
11/1/2022	3854	Go Short	10:47 AM	SH	16.08
11/7/2022	3809	Cover Short	3:16 PM	SH	16.20
11/7/2022	3809	Go Long	3:16 PM	SPY	380.09
11/9/2022	794	Sell Long	10:39 AM	SPY	378.68
11/9/2022	3794	Go Short	10:39 AM	SH	16.26
11/10/2022	3876	Cover Short	9:36 AM	SH	15.91
11/10/2022	3876	Go Long	9:36 AM	QQQ	275.46
12/15/2022	3934	Sell Long	9:36 AM	QQQ	281.00
12/15/2022	3934	Go Short	9:36 AM	SDS	43.90
12/29/2022	3838	Cover Short	10:12 AM	SDS	46.01
12/29/2022	3838	Go Long	10:12 AM	SSO	44.41
12/30/2022	3803	Sell Long	1:26 PM	SSO	43.62
12/30/2022	3803	Go Short	1:26 PM	SH	16.17
12/31/2022	3840	Cover Short	8:37 AM	SH	16.03

 

Date – SPX – Position – Time Stamp – ETF – Price

Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order

FINAL 2022 RESULTS

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 12/31/22; 8:37 AM EST

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/31/22; Algorithm Zeroed for 2023 Data EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2022 = -16; signal line is -25; go short 3840; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 Final = -19.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 Final = +29.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2022 Final = +44.5%)
12/30/22; 3:36 PM EST = -16; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
12/30/22; 3:17 PM EST = -32; signal line is -27
12/30/22; 1:26 PM EST = -46; signal line is -27; go short 3803; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -20.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +30.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +45.4%)
12/30/22; 1:25 PM EST = -32; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains long
12/30/22; 9:50 AM EST = -16; signal line is -27
12/29/22; 10:12 AM EST = +0; signal line is -27; go long 3838; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +31.7%)(Actual results this trade = +4.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +47.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side a little bit ago at SPX 3838. Utilities and the NYA index jump into the bull camp and then the banks join the fun sending stocks to the moon. The Santa Claus rally arrives. Santy!

In a few hours, the quant goes from the bear camp with the algo number 21 points below the signal line to the bull camp with the algo number 27 points above the signal line. XLF, NYA and UTIL are controlling stock market direction. The bulls closed the UTIL 975 trap-door so they can party above.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program gains about +2% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +5%. For the year, with only one more trading day remaining (tomorrow), the benchmark SPX is down -20%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +32% on the year and the actual trading generated by the algo is up +47% in 2022 maybe it will tag +50% before time runs out? Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/29/22; 10:12 AM EST = +0; signal line is -27; go long 3838; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +31.7%)(Actual results this trade = +4.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +47.2%)
12/29/22; 9:39 AM EST = -16; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
12/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = -30; signal line is -26
12/28/22; 3:14 PM EST = -46; signal line is -25
12/28/22; 2:58 PM EST = -30; signal line is -23
12/28/22; 2:49 PM EST = -16; signal line is -21 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 2:01 PM EST = -30; signal line is -19
12/28/22; 12:56 PM EST = -16; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 11:55 AM EST = -30; signal line is -16
12/27/22; 10:24 AM EST = -16; signal line is -14
12/27/22; 10:05 AM EST = -32; signal line is -13
12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is -11
12/23/22; 3:59 PM EST = -16; signal line is -10
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is -9
12/23/22; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -7
12/21/22; 3:37 PM EST = -16; signal line is -4
12/21/22; 3:12 PM EST = -32; signal line is -3
12/21/22; 12:53 PM EST = -16; signal line is +0
12/21/22; 12:18 PM EST = -32; signal line is +2
12/21/22; 10:38 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
12/21/22; 10:27 AM EST = -32; signal line is +6
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is +8
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is +11
12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -37; signal line is +14
12/16/22; 3:59 PM EST = -37; signal line is +16
12/16/22; 3:34 PM EST = -21; signal line is +19
12/16/22; 10:30 AM EST = -37; signal line is +21
12/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -21; signal line is +23
12/15/22; 3:47 PM EST = -5; signal line is +25
12/15/22; 3:02 PM EST = +9; signal line is +26
12/15/22; 11:18 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
12/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is +29; go short 3934; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +29.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after the bulls threatened to take control. The NYA index and utilities both fail a very big deal. The bears need weaker copper and higher volatility to send stocks lower but that is not on tap thus far today.

Thus, UTIL 975.42 and NYA 15110 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand dictating the stock market direction forward. If both remain in the bear camp, the stock market will remain soggy. If they drop sharply from here (UTIL 975.42 is the trap-door for stock), stocks are going to collapse lower.

However, if either parameter can turn bullish (price moves above the numbers shown), the bulls are going to be back in the business of creating a bottom. Keybot the Quant likely needs to see both parameters to turn bullish to signal that the imminent turn to the long side is in play and the SPX would also need to rally about 65 points today, above 3848, to flip the quant long. In these erratic markets, it would not be surprising to see it happen.

If neither UTIL or NYA can recover their key levels, it is a big negative for the US stock market. If tomorrow ends this way with both in the bear camp, a negative start to the new year is likely on tap. Conversely, if one or both parameters turn bullish, it tells you that a strong rally is likely beginning to greet the new year.

12/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/28/22; 3:14 PM EST = -46; signal line is -25
12/28/22; 2:58 PM EST = -30; signal line is -23
12/28/22; 2:49 PM EST = -16; signal line is -21 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 2:01 PM EST = -30; signal line is -19
12/28/22; 12:56 PM EST = -16; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
12/28/22; 11:55 AM EST = -30; signal line is -16
12/27/22; 10:24 AM EST = -16; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls are flexing their muscles. UTIL tags 982 above the 975 bull/bear line in the sand so the bulls are puffing their chests out even though the bears are still holding the stock market ball. UTIL above 975 is a huge deal as previously explained.

The algo number is only 2 points below the signal line, thus, a couple scenarios may play out. First, the utilities may start to oscillate above and below 975. Under for a few minutes or half-hour, then back above for a while, you get the idea, jogging, this tells you that the quant is likely getting ready to flip long.

The second scenario would be the banks or commodities joining the bull camp which will likely cause Keybot to go long. If XLF moves above 34.08 and/or GTX above 3528, either one will do, and if the SPX is above 3846 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If both turn bullish, stocks will be rallying strongly higher. (GTX is shown on stockcharts.com as $GTX)

The bears need to drag UTIL back below 975 and keep it trending lower to signal that stock market pain and misery is the path ahead. Same-o with the NYA 15112 bull/bear line in the sand. Bears need NYA back below 15112 pronto or the bulls are going to start pushing stocks higher.

Thus, bears must keep banks and commodities negative while pulling UTIL under 975 and NYA below 15112. If this occurs, there will be Hell to pay and the quant will remain short.

Bulls win big if XLF moves above 34.08 and if GTX moves above 3528. Any 1 of the 2 turning bullish, with the SPX above 3846 trending higher, will probably flip the quant long. 

There may be excitement on tap as the year end. A few years back, the quant flipped sides in the last minute of the last trading day of the year so you never know what will happen. The robot will be rezeroed for 2023 on the weekend.

Looking at the pre-market, with the opening bell for the regular US session about 1 hour away, XLF pops to 34.06. Utilities are also trading higher. The bulls are puffing their chests out.

12/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/27/22; 10:24 AM EST = -16; signal line is -14
12/27/22; 10:05 AM EST = -32; signal line is -13
12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is -11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Were you watching utilities? UTIL comes up to the critical 975; that is quite a sight. If UTIL remains above 974.95, the bulls are going to send the stock market higher. If UTIL fails at 974.95, the stock market will become negative.

There are a lot of moving parts but the stock market direction ahead likely depends on utes, the NYA index, banks and commodities. The first two parameters are sitting in the bull camp creating higher stock prices while the latter two are in the bear camp creating negativity in stocks.

Bulls need to keep UTIL above 974.95 and NYA above 15152. At the same time, bulls must push XLF above 34.09 and/or GTX above 3529. Either one will do which will likely trigger Keybot the Quant to flip long. If both flip bullish, a big stock market rally will be underway.

Bears need to keep XLF below 34.09 and GTX below 3529 and at the same time, pull UTIL below 974.95 and/or NYA below 15152. One of the parameters turning bearish will send the stock market lower and if both turn bearish, stocks will be falling apart.

An interesting couple-three weeks are ahead for utilities. UTIL 974.95 is the bull/bear line in the sand that has big ramifications for the path forward. If UTIL remains above moving higher, there will likely NOT be a major selloff or crash to begin 2023. Instead, the stock market will rally or remain buoyant and the next significant drop lower for the US stock market will occur further into 2023. So there is a lot riding on utes.

In addition, UTIL 1012 is a key bull/bear line in the sand for this week if price moves higher. If UTIL hits 1012, the US stock market will be screaming higher. For the first trading week of the year, 1/2/23, UTIL 979 is a bull/bear line in the sand, and for the week of 1/9/23, UTIL 888 is a bull/bear line in the sand. You can see the look-back comparisons become easier which favors bulls. If UTIL is above 979 next Monday, 1/2/23, stocks will be rallying higher.

If the bears want to sustain negativity in the stock market, they need to send UTIL below 974.95 pronto and then send utes far lower.

US stocks are not trading due to the Christmas holiday but will begin trading again tomorrow morning.

Keybot the Quant logs another great year and the algorithm program will be rezeroed next weekend to assess 2022 and begin 2023.

12/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2022 =
12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is -11
12/23/22; 3:59 PM EST = -16; signal line is -10
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is -9
12/23/22; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -7
12/21/22; 3:37 PM EST = -16; signal line is -4
12/21/22; 3:12 PM EST = -32; signal line is -3
12/21/22; 12:53 PM EST = -16; signal line is +0
12/21/22; 12:18 PM EST = -32; signal line is +2
12/21/22; 10:38 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
12/21/22; 10:27 AM EST = -32; signal line is +6
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is +8
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number now 60 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising with their feet, er paws, up on the dashboard. The stock market sh*t the bed since the back half of last week.

Yesterday, chips, utes and the NYA index remain bearish insuring that the bearish malaise will continue. Bulls better push UTIL above 975 or there will be Hell to pay going forward.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker copper to continue the stock market sell-off. It is interesting that despite the weakness the last few days, the VIX is not shooting higher. Bears must push VIX above 24.96 to prove that carnage will occur. If the bulls can continue to prevent VIX 24.96 from occurring, stocks will start to recover.

Bears need CPER below 22.38 now at 22.73. This equates to a -1.5% drop in copper futures now trading up +0.2% so now the bears need a -1.7% drop in the red metal futures. If volatility and copper remain in the bull camp and will not turn sour, the stock market will recover.

12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is +11
12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -37; signal line is +14

'Tis the Season

Happy Hannukah and Merry Christmas. Happy Kwanza, Boxing Day, Festivus and New Years, too. It's almost 2023. Time flies when you're having fun.

Thanks to those that support and have supported The Keystone Speculator and Keybot the Quant blogs. The blogs donate to the charities listed in the margins below including humanitarian aid into Ukraine and elsewhere, especially food relief through the worldwide networks, and even helping out Animal Friends that protect and help animals and pets. The Gary Sinise (he is the actor that played Lieutenant Dan the amputee in the "Forest Gump" movie) Foundation is a great charity that helps veterans and first responders.

If you have winter coats, hats, scarfs and gloves that do not fit anymore or do not suit your style, donate them to a local thrift store, especially children's boots. Avoid the big-box thrift stores instead find the small shops ran by volunteers in run-down communities. These folks know the working poor in the area that simply need a little extra help and other folks that are in need.

Since you are buying a bunch of food to celebrate the holidays this week, it is time to clean the pantry and cabinet shelves. Place all your canned goods in a sturdy box and wipe your cabinets clean.

Drop the box of canned goods and pasta at the food bank, or at a thrift store since they usually take food donations, or keep your ears open for organizations conducting food drives and help them out, and then you can go to the grocery store to restock your house. It is fascinating that going to bed hungry as a child is something you will never forget as long as you live.

Don't forget to read "The Gift of the Magi" by the brilliant O Henry this time each year.

Ho, ho, ho. Jingle Bell Rock.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The wheels fell off the stock market on Friday morning with utilities failing. Also, the chips are down, literally and figuratively, creating further weakness. The bears are cruising with the algo number over 50 points below the signal line. The bull's sh*t the bed last week.

UTIL lost the 975 level opening a trap-door for stocks. UTIL begins this week at 963 and bulls need it back above 975. If the utes remain sub 975, it is a terrible omen for the stock market going forward.

Watch the chips since that was the main game occurring on Friday. Bulls need SOX back above 2637.40 (now at 2636.10). This is uber important and will tell you the direction of the stock market ahead. If SOX remains below 2637, the stock market will fall apart.

Bulls also need NYA above 15188 (now at 15018) pronto to stop the selling and prove that a come-back rally can materialize.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, another on Wednesday morning and the third on Friday morning going into Christmas weekend.

12/25/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/21/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/20/22; 9:00 AM EST =
12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -37; signal line is +14
12/16/22; 3:59 PM EST = -37; signal line is +16
12/16/22; 3:34 PM EST = -21; signal line is +19
12/16/22; 10:30 AM EST = -37; signal line is +21
12/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -21; signal line is +23
12/15/22; 3:47 PM EST = -5; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after the wild and crazy Thursday bloodbath. NYA recovers above 15192 but then rolls over again ending the day at 15182.

Bulls need NYA above 15192 to bring the selling to a stop. If NYA remains below, 15192, there will be Hell to pay.

Bears need SOX below 2638, UTIL below 975 and VIX above 24.90. Any 1 of these 3 jumping into the bear camp will create another big leg lower in stocks. Two parameters will be a huge selloff and if all 3 turn bearish, the blood and carnage will be epic.

Bulls need NYA above 15192 to stop the selling and stabilize the stock market. If chips, utes or volatility fail into the bear camp as described, stocks will take another big leg lower.

12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/15/22; 3:47 PM EST = -5; signal line is +25
12/15/22; 3:02 PM EST = +9; signal line is +26
12/15/22; 11:18 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short after the opening bell at SPX 3934 after the wheels fell off the bank and retail sectors. Shortly thereafter, the NYA index loses 15191 and stocks begin puking profusely. The SPX is collapsing over 100 points.

Bulls need NYA above 15191 and/or XLF above 34.40 to right the ship and stop the selling. If either one of these occur, the downside is not going to be a big deal.

Bears need SOX below 2642 and UTIL below 975 to create more stock market carnage. The path forward will become bloody and ugly if either, or both, of these fail.

Thus, bulls need a stronger NYA index and banks, and retail stocks, while bears need weaker semiconductors and utilities. One of those parameters will flinch and tell you what is going on.

Stay on guard for a whipsaw because the markets are erratic and unstable.

On the last trade, that lasted over a month, the quant program and actual trading each gain about +2%. Humorously, that was a lot of time, and drama, for a lousy 2% but its better than losing money. For the year, with only a couple weeks remaining, the benchmark S&P 500, which is the United States stock market, the SPX, is down -18%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +29% on the year thus far and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +42%. Keybot exits QQQ and enters SDS back into the 2x leveraged ETF's after the whipsaw timer expired.

12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/15/22; 11:18 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
12/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is +29; go short 3934; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +29.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.4%)
12/13/22; 8:35 AM EST = +41; signal line is +30
12/12/22; 3:26 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 2:26 PM EST = +41; signal line is +30
12/12/22; 1:57 PM EST = +11; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 9:53 AM EST = +25; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 9:44 AM EST = +9; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
12/12/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:29 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 2:38 PM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/9/22; 2:10 PM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/8/22; 3:18 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
12/8/22; 3:11 PM EST = +25; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 12:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +29
12/8/22; 11:21 AM EST = +25; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +27
12/7/22; 2:51 PM EST = +25; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
12/7/22; 2:39 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
12/7/22; 2:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
12/6/22; 2:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/6/22; 2:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 1:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +41; signal line is +23
11/30/22; 3:14 PM EST = +41; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +22
11/28/22; 3:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/28/22; 11:56 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24
11/28/22; 10:56 AM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/22/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/21/22; 12:35 PM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 10:20 AM EST = -4; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:53 AM EST = +10; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +20
11/18/22; 3:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +18
11/18/22; 12:13 PM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +16
11/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +16
11/16/22; 2:25 PM EST = +40; signal line is +14
11/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +13
11/15/22; 2:18 PM EST = +40; signal line is +12
11/15/22; 1:30 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
11/15/22; 11:28 AM EST = +40; signal line is +9
11/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +7
11/14/22; 3:59 PM EST = +12; signal line is +5
11/14/22; 2:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +4
11/14/22; 1:12 PM EST = +40; signal line is +2
11/14/22; 12:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is -1
11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is -2
11/11/22; 1:08 PM EST = +40; signal line is -5
11/11/22; 11:15 AM EST = +26; signal line is -7
11/11/22; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is -8
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is -11
11/11/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -13
11/10/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -15; go long 3876; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -18.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.8%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2022 = +40.0%)